NFL GDT: Week 16

[GKJ]

Tonight we have the 49ers @ Titans, in what was really a dick move by the NFL sending a west coast team across multiple time zones for a Thursday game, especially so late in the season (this wasn’t supposed to happen anymore), but it is here and it is the last Thursday game of the year. At least it’s two decent teams.

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[John Price]

 

[StreetHawk]

Tonight we have the 49ers @ Titans, in what was really a dick move by the NFL sending a west coast team across multiple time zones for a Thursday game, especially so late in the season (this wasn’t supposed to happen anymore), but it is here and it is the last Thursday game of the year. At least it’s two decent teams.

This does seem like an odd scheduling move for a TNF game.

but the raiders waited til noon their time on Friday to try to board a plane for Cleveland for a Sat game. And that’s a 3 hour time zone change. But that likely due to Covid.

this SF and Ten game was scheduled months ago. The nfl had pretty much kept TNF games with limited travel. LV was at Dallas and Buf went to NO for US thanksgiving.

 

[Yarice]

The biggest problem I have with the analytics debate in the general population is that it is mostly people who knows nothing about statistics who are arguing against people who know a little bit about statistics, but who thinks they know everything (Say hello to Dunning-Kruger).

I mean, teams are probably using models that we know nothing about, with data that we don't even have access. And after that, every time a coach makes a controversial decision, people are saying ''Hey look, analytics are dumb'', or ''Hey look, analytics are genius'', when the sample size is littaraly 1, and when we don't even know if the decision is based on analytics or not.

 

[GKJ]

Analytics are so ingrained in football that people don’t even know they’ve been being used and measured for like 40 years. People have just been oblivious to what it is so they just attribute new ideas to ‘analytics’ for people who just have no intention of understanding them.

 

[StreetHawk]

It’s still about matchups. Do your trust your O vs your D? If I’m Seattle over the past couple of years I would trust Wilson to get it done. When the LOB was in its prime I’d trust the D more to win the game. Plus who am I up against? What is their strength?

like the playoff game vs GB 2 years ago. It’s 4th and 10 from midfield. Over 2 minutes to go and Sea had all their TO. But they opted to punt it to GB and Rodgers secured a pair of first downs and won the game.

same with GB and TB last year. 4th and goal and down a TD. Why kick the FG? Live or die with your elite QB. And Brady is on the other side and TB secured a first down and win the game.

seems like today if you can steal a possession on a 4th and 3 at your own 45 yard line or beyond you do it. Punters either drop it into the end zone for a touch back or kick it too short to outside the 10. How often can you truly back the opposition inside the kick on a perfectly executed downed punt?

 

[Troy McClure]

Analytics are so ingrained in football that people don’t even know they’ve been being used and measured for like 40 years. People have just been oblivious to what it is so they just attribute new ideas to ‘analytics’ for people who just have no intention of understanding them.

That's the main problem.

Crusty old sportswriters don't realize the stuff they're complaining about now with teams going for it on fourth down comes from the same kind of analysis that drove teams to shift their play calling from run heavy to pass heavy. It also then drove a recent swing back the other way with some systems running more but doing so in a more efficient manner with how they build the run game off of pass looks.

Analytics is just a fancy new word for the kinds of things teams have been doing forever. When Jimmy Johnson wanted some math nerds to come up with a draft value chart to help him know how much more value pick 14 has over pick 40, that was analytics, even if we weren't using that word at the time. That was 30 years ago.

 

[GKJ]

That's the main problem.

Crusty old sportswriters don't realize the stuff they're complaining about now with teams going for it on fourth down comes from the same kind of analysis that drove teams to shift their play calling from run heavy to pass heavy. It also then drove a recent swing back the other way with some systems running more but doing so in a more efficient manner with how they build the run game off of pass looks.

Analytics is just a fancy new word for the kinds of things teams have been doing forever. When Jimmy Johnson wanted some math nerds to come up with a draft value chart to help him know how much more value pick 14 has over pick 40, that was analytics, even if we weren't using that word at the time. That was 30 years ago.

How long have we been measuring 3rd down percentage and YAC? They’ve been doing YAC on broadcasts for as long as Fox has had the package.

 

[Marc the Habs Fan]

Statement opening drive for the 49ers as they punch it in.

 

[GKJ]

Hoping today is D'Onta Foreman Day

 

[Mass]

What on earth is the point of running a draw on 3rd and 15 this early?

 

[Mass]

Solid face mask call when he grabbed his shoulder pad

 

[Marc the Habs Fan]

Careless Garopception.

 

[misterchainsaw]

Tanehill's 5/5 for 13 yards. Maybe throw downfield once in awhile lol.

 

[misterchainsaw]

This should be 17-0 already. At least.

 

[Mass]

Couldn’t have a more polar opposite comparison in play calling and play design.

 

[Marc the Habs Fan]

Gould FG is good. 10-0 49ers.

 

[misterchainsaw]

Offsides being disregarded because of major offensive penalties is one of the dumbest rules in football. The offsides caused the face mask.

Know what's even dumber? Intentional grounding also cancels an offside call. That's right, if the QB throws the ball away because a defensive player got a head start and got around the edge, and the refs don't call it unabated to the QB, it's the offside that doesn't count.

 

[TheAngryHank]

This should be 17-0 already. At least.

Do we want SF to win?
Bills

 

[Mass]

Offsides being disregarded because of major offensive penalties is one of the dumbest rules in football. The offsides caused the face mask.

Know what's even dumber? Intentional grounding also cancels an offside call. That's right, if the QB throws the ball away because a defensive player got a head start and got around the edge, and the refs don't call it unabated to the QB, it's the offside that doesn't count.

Offside doesn’t cause a facemask. There’s case to say holding, but no way on a facemask, that’s next level.

 

[misterchainsaw]

Do we want SF to win?
Bills

Can't hurt. If Tennessee loses out the AFC South wild card ends up below the 10-7 mix.

Also whatever slim chance the Bills have at the 1 seed starts with KC and TEN losing twice.

 

[misterchainsaw]

Offside doesn’t cause a facemask. There’s case to say holding, but no way on a facemask, that’s next level.

It literally just happened. He's grabbing the facemask because it's all he could do to stop his QB from getting blasted from his blind side.

That play should have been blown down for unabated to the QB. The Titan was halfway around him when the ball was snapped.

 

[misterchainsaw]

Garapollo really trying to keep the Titans in the game...Titans decline the gift.

 

[Halladay]

Jimmy very lucky there. WTH.

 

[misterchainsaw]

Pretty sure that whistle went long before the ball came out. He was wrapped up long before.