GDT: We’re not in Columbus anymore CAR@DAL

[CanesFanBudMan]

I think the only bingo for the year so far is 4th horizontal

 

[Navin R Slavin]

LOL, guess it's an optical illusion, or maybe they are just all 200lb hosses instead of 6'3, 180

Carolina is 11th in weight at 200.0 even; Dallas is 13th at 199.7.

We're the 200lb hosses, hoss.

 

[geehaad]

Going into the season Dallas did concern me a little bit, but from what we’ve seen so far I’m really not too worried about them.

I'd imagine they are a much different team with Seguin.

 

[MinJaBen]

I'd imagine they are a much different team with Seguin.

If he is anything like he was in the playoffs last year, I agree and would welcome the downgrade.

 

[Rick Davis]

Look at that disparity in hits! When are we going to sign someone like Tom Wilson who will make sure that the opponents don’t try to intimidate our skilled players? I thought we had that player in Ferland but we all know how that turned out...

 

[Navin R Slavin]

Look at that disparity in hits! When are we going to sign someone like Tom Wilson who will make sure that the opponents don’t try to intimidate our skilled players? I thought we had that player in Ferland but we all know how that turned out...

We won the game, and none of our skilled players ever play like they are even a little bit intimidated.

Lamenting a win because we didn't win the hits stat makes no sense at all.

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

We won the game, and none of our skilled players ever play like they are even a little bit intimidated.

Lamenting a win because we didn't win the hits stat makes no sense at all.

I don't think you understand - one game is one game but if we continue to build our team around players that are less that 6 feet and less than 200 lbs we will get bullied against bigger teams like Dallas.

 

[Unsustainable]

Mark it as a zero Dude

 

[VibesAlive]

Maybe we didn't win the numbers game with hits, but unlike previous years, when we had our chance, the Canes threw some "big hits". I remember some of those sent Dallas players flying around.

 

[Navin R Slavin]

"We can continue to slice and dice the data in different ways, but, thus far, research has shown that there does not appear to be a positive relationship between hits and goals scored, and, if anything, there might be a negative one."

My Model Monday: Understanding the Impact of Hits in the NHL | Model 284

Playing physical is fine and important. Physicality is a critical element of the game. But the hit statistic itself is repeatedly negatively correlated with goals and wins. Why? Because, by definition, you can only hit a puck carrier. The team that hits more is more likely to have had the puck less -- and hitting a puck carrier does not even correlate to winning the puck.

Stop talking about hits. It's a negative coefficient, not a positive one.

 

[Navin R Slavin]

Maybe we didn't win the numbers game with hits, but unlike previous years, when we had our chance, the Canes threw some "big hits". I remember some of those sent Dallas players flying around.

A big well placed hit is great! Repeated hits are not, because they mean you're chasing the game.

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

"We can continue to slice and dice the data in different ways, but, thus far, research has shown that there does not appear to be a positive relationship between hits and goals scored, and, if anything, there might be a negative one."

My Model Monday: Understanding the Impact of Hits in the NHL | Model 284

Playing physical is fine and important. Physicality is a critical element of the game. But the hit statistic itself is repeatedly negatively correlated with goals and wins. Why? Because, by definition, you can only hit a puck carrier. The team that hits more is more likely to have had the puck less -- and hitting a puck carrier does not even correlate to winning the puck.

Stop talking about hits. It's a negative coefficient, not a positive one.

It’s like how fantasy hockey usually rewards PIM.

Still waiting for fantasy football to give me extra points for all the interceptions my QB threw.

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

A big well placed hit is great! Repeated hits are not, because they mean you're chasing the game.

Correct. I think there’s also some subjectivity in hitting as a skill. Yes - a high amount of hits is an indicator of a lack of possession, but that doesn’t mean a guy that runs around hitting people doesn’t provide a certain value.

Maybe an inexact analogy, but you wouldn’t use “teams that punt more lose more football games” as a reason to say “no point in having a good punter.” There’s some gray in there.

 

[tarheelhockey]

It’s like how fantasy hockey usually rewards PIM.

Still waiting for fantasy football to give me extra points for all the interceptions my QB threw.

The thing is, if my RB fumbles at the goal line then the other team is forced to start with terrible field position. And any coach will tell you that, above all else, field position wins games.

Want to win more games? Every time you're about to score, deliberately drop the ball at the 1.

 

[Navin R Slavin]

Correct. I think there’s also some subjectivity in hitting as a skill. Yes - a high amount of hits is an indicator of a lack of possession, but that doesn’t mean a guy that runs around hitting people doesn’t provide a certain value.

Maybe an inexact analogy, but you wouldn’t use “teams that punt more lose more football games” as a reason to say “no point in having a good punter.” There’s some gray in there.

That's right, and a fair analogy.

The difference is that you can 100% quantify a punter's impact in net yards per punt, and punting is literally the only thing a punter does -- thus you can value a punter pretty accurately.

Hitting is a thing that must be evaluated against every other thing that a player does -- and increasingly, if it's the only thing you do well, your value in the NHL is lower.

Of course, if you've got a guy who's a great player and he also makes impactful hits, the added value is obvious. It's one of the reasons Svech is a next level guy.

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

The thing is, if my RB fumbles at the goal line then the other team is forced to start with terrible field position. And any coach will tell you that, above all else, field position wins games.

Want to win more games? Every time you're about to score, deliberately drop the ball at the 1.

Maybe, but special teams also wins football games.

Kicking fields goals on 1st and Goal is the key.

 

[tarheelhockey]

Maybe, but special teams also wins football games.

Kicking fields goals on 1st and Goal is the key.

The ideal team wins the field position battle, dominates time of possession, gets great special teams, and denies the ball to the opponent’s skill players.

The ideal drive: take 10 minutes to get from the 50 to the 1, then punt the ball sideways out of bounds.

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

The ideal team wins the field position battle, dominates time of possession, gets great special teams, and denies the ball to the opponent’s skill players.

The ideal drive: take 10 minutes to get from the 50 to the 1, then punt the ball sideways out of bounds.

I like what you’re thinking, but first be sure to kneel it 3 times at the 1 in order to stretch that drive to 12 min.

 

[geehaad]

The ideal team wins the field position battle, dominates time of possession, gets great special teams, and denies the ball to the opponent’s skill players.

The ideal drive: take 10 minutes to get from the 50 to the 1, then punt the ball sideways out of bounds.

Too risky. Turn it over on downs, get a safety, receive the punt, drive to the 1, rinse and repeat.

 

[Negan4Coach]

Carolina is 11th in weight at 200.0 even; Dallas is 13th at 199.7.

We're the 200lb hosses, hoss.

Well if that's the case, then they REALLY don't have an excuse for allowing themselves to be ragdolled around by Dallas.

Which despite the disparity in hits last game I don't think was the case. But the first two games that certainly happened.

But like I've said before, it seems to be an organizational mindset to eschew aggression, because over 20 years, different GMs, coaches and even owners, that has been the way it is. And I think in a place like Boston or Philly, they just tell the players "look this is Philly. You're going to play tough"

 

[geehaad]

in a place like Boston or Philly, they just tell the players "look this is Philly. You're going to play tough"

Right, and it informs the players they choose and keep for their organization. It's possibly why they let Seguin go for ... Loui Eriksson. It might also be the reason they let Dougie Hamilton go, as well...incidentally, the Hamilton draft pick was also acquired along with the Seguin pick via the Kessel trade with TOR.

Point being: if you're trading players because they don't fit your toughness mold, you're liable to lose skilled players, which is arguably a more difficult commodity to acquire than toughness.

 

[geehaad]

the image of Geekie falling on his face in the paint in front of James Reimer the other night while Mark Pysyk waltzed in and picked a corner

(relocated from the Dzingel trade thread so as to not take that thread off-topic)

How was Geekie supposed to play that differently?