Series Talk: WCSF: Colorado Avalanche (C3) vs Dallas Stars (C1) | Stars win 4-2

[the_fan]

Gotta grind out wins against this Stars team. Skill game only isn’t gonna work

 

[littletonhockeycoach]

They need to make a handful of changes, other than changing lines.

On the PP, Avs need to work the goal line more, Dallas is all over Makar at the point and Mack/Mikko on the side boards.. For zone entry, Dallas is playing this sorta 1-3-1 and clog the middle so Avs can't skate it in, and if they dump it in, Otter plays it. They need to dump it in harder so it gets past Otteror like bank it head on the back boards so it doesn't ring around.

I think you have recognized the conditions and applications Dallas is forcing the Avs to operate in during zone entry. But I'm not convinced your solutions that simple because the Stars strategy gets 1st applied in the Avs end and thru the NZ which is being successfully clogged up by the Stars.

I am simply arguing that a 3 zone solution is needed. Support on the puck is critical in all 3 zones. The Avs are not currently providing that to one another.

Watching the NYR/Carolina series provides one solid example of how such support gets executed.

 

[Forceberg]

Gotta grind out wins against this Stars team. Skill game only isn’t gonna work

They have already booked their golf vacation.

 

[MacKaRant]

I felt as though the looks Dallas got in the 3rd were as good as any Colorado got last night. Add to that they were phenomenal defensively. They were the clear better team in my eyes.

Yeah, the results of my personal eye test were the same. Avs tried again and again and again to pass through Dallas's neutral zone setup, and one of the few times they succeeded was Nichushkin's cross-ice pass to a streaking Toews, which eventually led to the goal. When the Avs did get into the zone, they were generally unable to sustain pressure or get to rebounds since Dallas was great at tying up sticks and not giving the Avs time to make a play. For me, this was starkly evident during the Stars' penalty kills—they really pressed the Avs at every opportunity and did not give them time to set up (contrast to the passive PK strategy of the Avs), which left them vulnerable to a 3-or-4-pass plays that we were unfortunately unable to execute, since pucks were dying on Rantanen's and Lekhonen's stick.

The fact that the expected goal numbers tilt so heavily to the Avs does give me pause though and makes me wonder whether my eyes were betraying me. Maybe it's that Oettinger looks so calm and controlled in the net that whatever marginal 0.05 or 0.1 xG that a normal shot or "normal" (non-high-danger) scoring chance generates feels more like 0.01 to the eye?

 

[nammerus]

Gotta grind out wins against this Stars team. Skill game only isn’t gonna work

Considering the Avs have known this shit for 4-5 years and are still getting flustered, suggest there’s no chance in hell they’re going to adapt.

They’d rather lose doing what they do then try and change-up. Rick Bownness’esque.

 

[the_fan]

Considering the Avs have known this shit for 4-5 years and are still getting flustered, suggest there’s no chance in hell they’re going to adapt.

They’d rather lose doing what they do then try and change-up. Rick Bownness’esque.

It doesn’t look like Avs have to change a lot because all 3 games have been one goal games. Just have to maybe try to get a lead and play with a lead, that’s something that would probably help

 

[Forceberg]

Considering the Avs have known this shit for 4-5 years and are still getting flustered, suggest there’s no chance in hell they’re going to adapt.

They’d rather lose doing what they do then try and change-up. Rick Bownness’esque.

How can it be that Bednar has won so much with a one-dimensional tactical repertoire.

It doesn’t look like Avs have to change a lot because all 3 games have been one goal games. Just have to maybe try to get a lead and play with a lead, that’s something that would probably help

AVS were always chasing several goals. They were only able to catch up because Dallas let them. That's why they don't score first.

 

[the_fan]

How can it be that Bednar has won so much with a one-dimensional tactical repertoire.


AVS were always chasing several goals. They were only able to catch up because Dallas let them. That's why they don't score first.

Talking about bad habits, Avs made a bad habit of falling behind often and playing catch up all season and it carried over to the playoffs. They need to change that for the next game and get a lead and play with a lead or they’ll probably lose the game then eventually the series. It’s not a huge adjustment to make to try scoring the 1st goal of the game

 

[henchman21]

Which, is what I’m saying.

It seems like a lot of people are trying to say that Dallas has been the better team in this series, which simply isn’t true.

I think their strategy is sound given the goaltending discrepancy, but it’s also why I said last night that this series is all about Colorado, not Dallas.

If Colorado can stop shooting themselves in the foot with turnovers and get back to cashing in on their chances, they can get right back in this series.

You gotta give credit to Dallas for that too... they are forcing the Avs to be impatient and forcing plays. Dallas is pushing the Avs outside. It isn't that Dallas is badly outplaying, it is Dallas is forcing the Avs into a style that they have a much lower success rate in. They deserve credit for that.

Avs are leading the entire playoffs by a considerable margin in HDCF% in both 5 on 5 and at all strengths when only looking at the Dallas series.

They have limited Dallas to the lowest amount of high danger chances in the second round even when including Edmonton and Vancouver who have only played 2 games.

Their ratio of creating high danger scoring chances vs their opponent has been the best out of all 12 series so far, whatever they are lacking in generating they are more than making up for in preventing. This would probably be the very last thing I would criticize about this series so far

You are not understanding what I'm saying. They are leading in Corsi and they have an advantage in dangerous shots... but they are down in danger quite a bit from their normal. There is tons of volume, but it is outside. This is Hurricane style hockey. A style that clearly has limitations in the playoffs.

They need to make a handful of changes, other than changing lines.

On the PP, Avs need to work the goal line more, Dallas is all over Makar at the point and Mack/Mikko on the side boards.. For zone entry, Dallas is playing this sorta 1-3-1 and clog the middle so Avs can't skate it in, and if they dump it in, Otter plays it. They need to dump it in harder so it gets past Otteror like bank it head on the back boards so it doesn't ring around.

FTR it is not a 1-3-1.. it is a 1-1-3. They are different forms of trapping and slowing down. The 1-3-1 is more about the red line and trying to cause turnovers or icings. The 1-1-3 is to deny zone entry with possession. Forces teams to dump in the puck and then battle for it. Dallas is encouraging the Avs to play below the goal line and battle them, the Avs refuse to do it thinking they can force the possession game to work.

 

[dahrougem2]

You gotta give credit to Dallas for that too... they are forcing the Avs to be impatient and forcing plays. Dallas is pushing the Avs outside. It isn't that Dallas is badly outplaying, it is Dallas is forcing the Avs into a style that they have a much lower success rate in. They deserve credit for that.



You are not understanding what I'm saying. They are leading in Corsi and they have an advantage in dangerous shots... but they are down in danger quite a bit from their normal. There is tons of volume, but it is outside. This is Hurricane style hockey. A style that clearly has limitations in the playoffs.



FTR it is not a 1-3-1.. it is a 1-1-3. They are different forms of trapping and slowing down. The 1-3-1 is more about the red line and trying to cause turnovers or icings. The 1-1-3 is to deny zone entry with possession. Forces teams to dump in the puck and then battle for it. Dallas is encouraging the Avs to play below the goal line and battle them, the Avs refuse to do it thinking they can force the possession game to work.

Which really is stupid because look at the Avs forwards. Literally built to go to work. Nichushkin, Lehkonen, Colton, Wood, Kiviranta, Trenin, Duhaime, Cogliano, Parise even at his geriatric age. Yet it is an almost complete refusal to do so.

It's no shock to me why Kiviranta looks so much better come playoff time. He epitomizes dump and get to work hockey.

 

[henchman21]

Which really is stupid because look at the Avs forwards. Literally built to go to work. Nichushkin, Lehkonen, Colton, Wood, Kiviranta, Trenin, Duhaime, Cogliano, Parise even at his geriatric age. Yet it is an almost complete refusal to do so.

It's no shock to me why Kiviranta looks so much better come playoff time. He epitomizes dump and get to work hockey.

They absolutely can do it… which I think leaves a few options: Bednar is coaching them out of it, players are dummies and think they can skill through it, or they don’t practice it at all and are now just so rusty in playing that style. I doubt it is the first one, but there could be elements of all 3.

The Avs just need to play some simple hockey and work for a few goals. That should loosen it up. A skill play will just have Dallas tip their cap. Get 3 grind it out dirty cycle goals… Dallas will have to tweak.

 

[dahrougem2]

They absolutely can do it… which I think leaves a few options: Bednar is coaching them out of it, players are dummies and think they can skill through it, or they don’t practice it at all and are now just so rusty in playing that style. I doubt it is the first one, but there could be elements of all 3.

The Avs went to work in the 3rd period of game 2. It can be done, and they've shown they can do it.

Players like 29 and 96 just seem to pout when they can't enter the zone with the puck.

 

[Balthazar]

The Avs went to work in the 3rd period of game 2.

How much of this was because Dallas was turtling though?

 

[expatriatedtexan]

They absolutely can do it… which I think leaves a few options: Bednar is coaching them out of it, players are dummies and think they can skill through it, or they don’t practice it at all and are now just so rusty in playing that style. I doubt it is the first one, but there could be elements of all 3.

The Avs just need to play some simple hockey and work for a few goals. That should loosen it up. A skill play will just have Dallas tip their cap. Get 3 grind it out dirty cycle goals… Dallas will have to tweak.

Bednar's use of the word stubborn comes to mind.

I think we had players cutting to the net all night. But it was on solo missions, where they used speed to beat the defender wide and slashed back across the net. I've used that move in EA Hockey successfully since 1994 (Sega Genesis days). They just weren't committed to going to the front of the net without the puck, like at all.

That's why I suggest starting game 4 with Nuke-MacKinnon-Yenin. I want N/S players sprinkled throughout the top six all night long. I want to see Wood, Yenin and Colton (as a winger) getting shifts on the top two lines. And I want Bednar to tell them their job is to finish every check and move as quickly north-south as possible. None of the east-west bullshit.

 

[henchman21]

The Avs went to work in the 3rd period of game 2. It can be done, and they've shown they can do it.

Players like 29 and 96 just seem to pout when they can't enter the zone with the puck.

How much of this was because Dallas was turtling though?

It’s hard to say exactly what that was… but even if they did, they have yet to prove it for 60 minutes too. Dallas is betting that they can’t. Up to the Avs to prove that wrong.

 

[dahrougem2]

How much of this was because Dallas was turtling though?

Could be, but I don't think it was. I think watching that game there was a clear shift in how the Avs looked in the 3rd relative to the 1st and 2nd when they had the puck. They put pucks into corners and went to work, then drove hard to the net.

 

[GeoRox89]

Could be, but I don't think it was. I think watching that game there was a clear shift in how the Avs looked in the 3rd relative to the 1st and 2nd when they had the puck. They put pucks into corners and went to work, then drove hard to the net.

This is the thing that it’s been driving me nuts they keep not doing. Put the puck in the corner so Otter can’t help their retrieval. I swear 3/4 of the time that they finally dump it in they’re sending it right around behind the net and Dallas has an easy exit

 

[henchman21]

This is the thing that it’s been driving me nuts they keep not doing. Put the puck in the corner so Otter can’t help their retrieval. I swear 3/4 of the time that they finally dump it in they’re sending it right around behind the net and Dallas has an easy exit

Which could be a legitimate practice issue. I doubt the Avs do very much work on those dumps.

 

[the_fan]

We’re really missing guys like Landy and Kadri against a team like Dallas. I know Mittelstadt was good in the 1st round, but as the playoffs go deeper, games get tougher, he still needs time to adjust as this is his 1st career playoffs and he has slowed down here in the 2nd round. Landy and Kadri would be exactly what we needed to beat the Stars

 

[GeoRox89]

Which could be a legitimate practice issue. I doubt the Avs do very much work on those dumps.

Could definitely see that though if they didn’t spend that week off working on it knowing they were playing one of Dallas and Vegas and would need to do it that would be a fail on Bednar

 

[Eltuna]

You gotta give credit to Dallas for that too... they are forcing the Avs to be impatient and forcing plays. Dallas is pushing the Avs outside. It isn't that Dallas is badly outplaying, it is Dallas is forcing the Avs into a style that they have a much lower success rate in. They deserve credit for that.



You are not understanding what I'm saying. They are leading in Corsi and they have an advantage in dangerous shots... but they are down in danger quite a bit from their normal. There is tons of volume, but it is outside. This is Hurricane style hockey. A style that clearly has limitations in the playoffs.



FTR it is not a 1-3-1.. it is a 1-1-3. They are different forms of trapping and slowing down. The 1-3-1 is more about the red line and trying to cause turnovers or icings. The 1-1-3 is to deny zone entry with possession. Forces teams to dump in the puck and then battle for it. Dallas is encouraging the Avs to play below the goal line and battle them, the Avs refuse to do it thinking they can force the possession game to work.

I’m saying they are slightly down in generation but far ahead in their usual for the prevention of high scoring chances. You are only looking at one side of the equation which is where the mistake is.

The Avs are operating at a 63.64% high danger scoring chance at 5 on 5, far above where Carolina is at against the Rangers. It’s not Carolina hockey as the Hurricanes have literally never had a series like that, in no series have they out-chanced the opposition like that when it comes to high danger chances at even strength

Again it is the very last thing that should be criticized in this entire series, saying the Avs are getting many shots but it’s a mirage as there aren’t enough high danger ones is straight up untrue as they are limiting Dallas so well 5 on 5 which more than makes up for it

Everyone here would be surprised to know that the Avs 63.64% is better than any of the four series they had in their cup win. The last series where a team bettered the Avs in this metric was 2022 Tampa vs Rangers in the third round.

 

[henchman21]

I’m saying they are slightly down in generation but far ahead in their usual for the prevention of high scoring chances. You are only looking at one side of the equation which is where the mistake is.

The Avs are operating at a 63.64% high danger scoring chance at 5 on 5, far above where Carolina is at against the Rangers. It’s not Carolina hockey as the Hurricanes have literally never had a series like that, in no series have they out-chanced the opposition like that when it comes to high danger chances at even strength

Again it is the very last thing that should be criticized in this entire series, saying the Avs are getting many shots but it’s a mirage as there aren’t enough high danger ones is straight up untrue as they are limiting Dallas so well 5 on 5 which more than makes up for it

Everyone here would be surprised to know that the Avs 63.64% is better than any of the four series they had in their cup win. The last series where a team bettered the Avs in this metric was 2022 Tampa vs Rangers in the third round.

The percentage is misleading… and high danger chances are the exact problem in this series. There isn’t enough danger to beat Otter consistently.

 

[Eltuna]

The percentage is misleading… and high danger chances are the exact problem in this series. There isn’t enough danger to beat Otter consistently.

Not sure how chances for divided by chances against are misleading. If you were to tabulate a list of all problems for the Avs their performance at high danger would be extremely far down the list, they are putting up a performance usually only seen once every 25 playoff series or so at 5 on 5. It’s insane to blame that as the issue.

This is an opinion that is just not true, again calling it Hurricanes hockey is incorrect as the Hurricanes have literally never done this

 

[henchman21]

Not sure how chances for divided by chances against are misleading. If you were to tabulate a list of all problems for the Avs their performance at high danger would be extremely far down the list, they are putting up a performance usually only seen once every 25 playoff series or so at 5 on 5. It’s insane to blame that as the issue.

This is an opinion that is just not true, again calling it Hurricanes hockey is incorrect as the Hurricanes have literally never done this

Because the amount of high danger chances the Avs are creating is unlikely to consistently get more than 2-3 goals. While the amount the Stars put up are enough to get 3+ consistently.

The Canes do this. It is early in their series to see where it lands as a whole. When they lost to the Rangers in 22, had 4/7 games over 60% of HDCF and lost the series. The other 3 were 50-56. When swept by the Panthers last year, they were over 60% in two games. You may not like the comparison, but to have an extremely high volume of shots and attempts while having a low number of high danger is exactly what Carolina does... and what the Avs are doing.

 

[Eltuna]

Because the amount of high danger chances the Avs are creating is unlikely to consistently get more than 2-3 goals. While the amount the Stars put up are enough to get 3+ consistently.

The Canes do this. It is early in their series to see where it lands as a whole. When they lost to the Rangers in 22, had 4/7 games over 60% of HDCF and lost the series. The other 3 were 50-56. When swept by the Panthers last year, they were over 60% in two games. You may not like the comparison, but to have an extremely high volume of shots and attempts while having a low number of high danger is exactly what Carolina does... and what the Avs are doing.

Dallas are actually generating the least amount of high danger chances in the league this round.

Again you cannot say that this is what Carolina does as they have never actually done it over a series. I’m all for various opinions but this is just factually incorrect & it is not the Avs problem. If it was the Avs problem their regular corsi percentage would be much higher than their high danger corsi, the exact opposite of that is true where the Avs advantage in high danger chances is greater than their advantage in all shots