I think the Avs can win this series... they just need two things.
Whoever is in net, just can't give up soft goals at the beginning. Winnipeg is damn good at playing with the lead. If they earn a goal, fine.. tip your cap. But giving up a soft goal in the first period will have the Avs chasing the game which plays right into Winnipeg's hands.
Along with that, the Avs need to start the games strong. Far too often this season, we've seen them just not show up for the first 5-10-15 minutes of a game. They need that Joe Sacco schedule and come out of the gates on fire. Control the play for the first half of the period. Even if it is 0-0 after 10, that is a win if you're controlling the play. Wear Winnipeg down, work to be up by 1 or 2 after 1 and then force them to chase.
That's a tall order for this team, but if it happens, I could see the Avs winning in 5 or 6 games. If they get down first in say 5 of 7 games, they probably lose 4 of them to sink the ship.