[VIDEO] Cole Perfetti: Eight-Minute Insights - A polarizing prospect; similar to Casey Mittelstadt?

[CambieKev]

Hi again, everyone. We have an opportunity to look at a second player today: Cole Perfetti.

Our presentation features his performance in the February 29, 2020 game between the Hamilton Bulldogs and Saginaw Spirit.

I think most people who watch Perfetti are enamored with his puck skills. He is very poised with the puck on his stick and controls it very well. He handles it quickly and has garnered those Patrick Kane-type comparisons from such outlets as The Hockey News because of this.

Having studied his game, the puck skills obviously stand out as a positive. However, in many ways he reminds me of another player who, in 2017, received similar attention for his pucks skills: Casey Mittelstadt.

For whatever reason, both players seem to have that three-quarter-speed appearance on the ice. This can be frustrating at times, as there were games when Perfetti was not very effective on a shift-to-shift basis. There are moments when he gives the puck away or takes a split-second longer to make a play than he should.

Some scouts think he should be a top-five pick. Others think he's closer to #10.

There are a few noteworthy drawbacks with regards to Perfetti despite his ability to control the puck with ease, which just means that his development curve will be a little bit longer than some might anticipate. I have some reservations about him becoming a star in the NHL. He seems most likely to be a middle-six player.

There will likely be some variation between the draft lists of NHL teams regarding his rank.

Click to read more...

 

[16thOverallSaveUs]

He’s going to mn at 11

 

[DrSense]

He basically played center the whole game it seemed, taking every faceoff for his line, other than on the PP, where he played the point.

Is that typical? I thought he played LWer more, but seemed to be playing center.

For one game, the sheer number of chances he created in a variety of ways stands out. A typical Perfetti game, from what I've seen.

 

[NotProkofievian]

He basically played center the whole game it seemed, taking every faceoff for his line, other than on the PP, where he played the point.

Is that typical? I thought he played LWer more, but seemed to be playing center.

For one game, the sheer number of chances he created in a variety of ways stands out. A typical Perfetti game, from what I've seen.

Exactly. +/- is a flawed stat, but in Perfetti's case the explanation for leading his team in points and +/- in both of his OHL years is basically the same. When Perfetti's on the ice, chances are pretty good that Saginaw is getting a scoring chance. It's pretty hard to get scored on when you're shooting at the opponent's net. I watched a game against Erie and I counted 2 shifts in which Perfetti was not able to create a shot or scoring chance for Saginaw.

 

[Scintillating10]

Hi again, everyone. We have an opportunity to look at a second player today: Cole Perfetti.

Our presentation features his performance in the February 29, 2020 game between the Hamilton Bulldogs and Saginaw Spirit.

I think most people who watch Perfetti are enamored with his puck skills. He is very poised with the puck on his stick and controls it very well. He handles it quickly and has garnered those Patrick Kane-type comparisons from such outlets as The Hockey News because of this.

Having studied his game, the puck skills obviously stand out as a positive. However, in many ways he reminds me of another player who, in 2017, received similar attention for his pucks skills: Casey Mittelstadt.

For whatever reason, both players seem to have that three-quarter-speed appearance on the ice. This can be frustrating at times, as there were games when Perfetti was not very effective on a shift-to-shift basis. There are moments when he gives the puck away or takes a split-second longer to make a play than he should.

Some scouts think he should be a top-five pick. Others think he's closer to #10.

There are a few noteworthy drawbacks with regards to Perfetti despite his ability to control the puck with ease, which just means that his development curve will be a little bit longer than some might anticipate. I have some reservations about him becoming a star in the NHL. He seems most likely to be a middle-six player.

There will likely be some variation between the draft lists of NHL teams regarding his rank.

If Perfetti is there at 8 he is my pic for the Habs. How a good Hlinka/Gretzky, TPG, great season this year and set OHL record for rookie goal scoring last year. Sounds good to me

 

[57special]

To me, Mittlestadt actually looked better, and was, of course bigger. It's a mystery to me how he appears to be flaming out. I am not prepared to blame BUF, though one wonders how he would've done with another year in college. The guy seems to lack an intangible-he's got all the physical skills.

Saying that Perfetti has the same lack of intangibles(whatever it is?)seems a bit presumptuous.

I don't like the lack of pace on Perfetti's passes. That won't work in the NHL.

He reminds me if Mikhail Granlund a bit. Lacks speed and strength, but smart, and skilled. I think MiG had better passing and stickhandling skills than Perfetti, the latter might have a better shot?

 

[m0pe]

To me, Mittlestadt actually looked better, and was, of course bigger. It's a mystery to me how he appears to be flaming out. I am not prepared to blame BUF, though one wonders how he would've done with another year in college. The guy seems to lack an intangible-he's got all the physical skills.

Saying that Perfetti has the same lack of intangibles(whatever it is?)seems a bit presumptuous.

Mittelstadt's struggles seems to be for a few reasons:

Poor defensively
Loses a lot of battles
Lacks high end speed

His puck skills only get him so far and don't work much at the NHL level.

These are also some areas that Perfetti may need to improve on too. Although I think Perfetti's shot is also a lot better than Mittelstadt's ever was, I can see the comparables.

Out of all the top-10 projected players in this draft, I definitely think he has the highest bust potential.

 

[57special]

Mittlestadt actually has a really good shot. Deceptive, and very quick release. He just can't seem to get to scoring spots in the NHL so he can use it.

 

[m0pe]

Mittlestadt actually has a really good shot. Deceptive, and very quick release. He just can't seem to get to scoring spots in the NHL so he can use it.

It's good, but not on the level of Perfetti's imo

But like you said, he can't get into spots to use it. And when he does, his lack of confidence often led to him over passing it.

It all goes back to the getting the chances though. His inability to seperate himself and find chances may be a similar issue for Perfetti at the next level.

 

[wetcoast]

If Perfetti is there at 8 he is my pic for the Habs. How a good Hlinka/Gretzky, TPG, great season this year and set OHL record for rookie goal scoring last year. Sounds good to me

He did?

Tony Tanti had 81 in his rookie year back in the day.

Not sure if that's the record or not though.

 

[Sundin92]

I think he has the highest risk factor of those in the top 10.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

I don’t think they are similar. I don’t see much that is polarizing about Perfetti either. I think the main question is how high you can take a pure scorer whose smaller, not a great skater, will move off center and isn’t much of a defensive player. Almost all his value will come from goals and assists. How high can you take that player? I don’t think there’s much question that he’ll fill up the stat sheet in the NHL.

Mittelstadt has been perpetually overrated due to his WJC performance. He also was misused by Buffalo by putting him at center when he’s clearly suited to winger.

 

[NA Hockey]

Not sure the point of one video of a random game in the middle of the season. In your opinion is this an average game? A good game? A bad game?

I don't see the Mittelstadt comparison either. Perfetti has performed as a leading producer at every level. He needs to work on his skating and his strength but if he works at those areas, he has everything else to be a front line player.

I agree @Pavel Buchnevich I don't see much that is polarizing. Basically everyone has him ranked anywhere from 4th to 10th in the draft. It's not like someone has him at 1 and another at 20 or 25. He also is much better defensively than he gets credit for despite one video that everyone uses to say that he isn't good defensively. Most scouts I have spoken to say he is good but not great defensively and that his compete level his very high. He just doesn't look like he is always working at warp speed because he is slowing the game down and processing and analysing. He doesn't need to go a million miles an hour because his brain is getting him to the right spots.

He has led his team in scoring and plus minus as a rookie and a sophomore and voted Smartest Player, Best Playmaker, Best Stickhandler and Best in Shootouts in the recent OHL Coaches Poll, while finishing second in OHL scoring and top 10 in the league in plus/minus, so again not sure what would be polarizing about that.

Mark Edwards has him ranked 4th for Hockey Prospects and said in an interview that he has watched all of his 111 points this year and many were jaw dropping.

Here is a video of highlights from this year that gives some context as opposed to shifts from one game.

 

[CambieKev]

Not sure the point of one video of a random game in the middle of the season. In your opinion is this an average game? A good game? A bad game?

I don't see the Mittelstadt comparison either. Perfetti has performed as a leading producer at every level. He needs to work on his skating and his strength but if he works at those areas, he has everything else to be a front line player.

I agree @Pavel Buchnevich I don't see much that is polarizing. Basically everyone has him ranked anywhere from 4th to 10th in the draft. It's not like someone has him at 1 and another at 20 or 25. He also is much better defensively than he gets credit for despite one video that everyone uses to say that he isn't good defensively. Most scouts I have spoken to say he is good but not great defensively and that his compete level his very high. He just doesn't look like he is always working at warp speed because he is slowing the game down and processing and analysing. He doesn't need to go a million miles an hour because his brain is getting him to the right spots.

He has led his team in scoring and plus minus as a rookie and a sophomore and voted Smartest Player, Best Playmaker, Best Stickhandler and Best in Shootouts in the recent OHL Coaches Poll, while finishing second in OHL scoring and top 10 in the league in plus/minus, so again not sure what would be polarizing about that.

Mark Edwards has him ranked 4th for Hockey Prospects and said in an interview that he has watched all of his 111 points this year and many were jaw dropping.

Here is a video of highlights from this year that gives some context as opposed to shifts from one game.

One uses information about a player's shift-to-shift performances in order to understand their tendencies and the nuances of their game. This is key information with regards to one's evaluation of a player.

Contrary to your opinion, it is impossible to understand the effectiveness of a prospect by simply looking at their best plays. In fact, there is no context for a highlight reel of goals and assist -- 100% of the plays being shown were effective.

Shift footage, in fact, contextualizes their offensive production and demonstrates the other elements of their game. Does the player hustle to fight for pucks in the corners? Do they drive possession? Do they contribute defensively, and in what manner do they position themselves to support their team? What are the player's strengths and deficiencies with regards to skating and puck skills? Does the player anticipate well, and is he proactive or reactive? What type of offense does the player provide? Does the player prefer to play in certain areas of the ice as opposed to others?

If you'd like an example of what a shift analysis can offer, read my Tyler Toffoli article for example. He is a pending UFA, so it is in the interest of teams to understand the type of player he is before they pursue him. Toffoli scores goals, but how familiar as you with his two-way game?

Tyler Toffoli: Analyzing His Style Of Play (and Why Teams Will Covet Him On July 1st) - A Visual Scouting Report by CambieKev

You'll grasp much more than the simple idea that Cole Perfetti scores points in a junior environment by watching his games. That is one of the foundations of scouting. One can not study a prospect's hockey IQ and gauge their ability to adapt to higher leagues through highlight packages.

These are the types of questions that one must answer, and they can be answered by watching footage of the player's performances. A mere highlight reel will tell you nothing about a prospect's overall game or their on-ice intelligence. More important than their raw production totals is their ability to translate that game to a higher level. One can only do that by looking at their shift-by-shift performances with a higher sense of scrutiny.

Of course, the more footage you look at -- the more games you watch --, the better. Consume as much information as possible when determining a player's characteristics and potential contributions at the next level.

One can see from our look at Cole Perfetti that he possesses high-end puck skills but a low motor. Pace is one of his greater criticisms, and it is among the reason that Casey Mittelstadt has struggled to adapt to the NHL. One can look at footage of his performances at Eden Prairie and see that there were issues with his ability to drive his line's attack despite his superb sense of poise and top-notch handling of the puck on his stick. The two puck wizards share these characteristics in common.

It's an opportunity to see these players for yourselves and identify their strengths, deficiencies, and the elements that comprise their game.

 

[NA Hockey]

One uses information about a player's shift-to-shift performances in order to understand their tendencies and the nuances of their game. This is key information with regards to one's evaluation of a player.

Contrary to your opinion, it is impossible to understand the effectiveness of a prospect by simply looking at their best plays. In fact, there is no context for a highlight reel of goals and assist -- 100% of the plays being shown were effective.

Shift footage, in fact, contextualizes their offensive production and demonstrates the other elements of their game. Does the player hustle to fight for pucks in the corners? Do they drive possession? Do they contribute defensively, and in what manner do they position themselves to support their team? What are the player's strengths and deficiencies with regards to skating and puck skills? Does the player anticipate well, and is he proactive or reactive? What type of offense does the player provide? Does the player prefer to play in certain areas of the ice as opposed to others?

If you'd like an example of what a shift analysis can offer, read my Tyler Toffoli article for example. He is a pending UFA, so it is in the interest of teams to understand the type of player he is before they pursue him. Toffoli scores goals, but how familiar as you with his two-way game?

Tyler Toffoli: Analyzing His Style Of Play (and Why Teams Will Covet Him On July 1st) - A Visual Scouting Report by CambieKev

You'll grasp much more than the simple idea that he scores points in a junior environment by watching their games. One can not study a prospect's hockey IQ and gauge their ability to adapt to higher leagues through highlight packages.

These are the types of questions that one must answer, and they can be answered by watching footage of the player's performances. A mere highlight reel will tell you nothing about a prospect's overall game.

You are 100% right and I agree with you on the above response. A highlight reel doesn't provide any more context to analyze a player than one random game. That was my point. You need to watch many games at various points throughout the year. Games that are early in the weekend and games that are the 3rd in a 3 in 3. Games against the best teams and games against teams not as good. Your video basically doesn't do any of the the things that you espouse above because it is only one game.

 

[CambieKev]

You are 100% right and I agree with you on the above description. A highlight reel doesn't provide any more context to analyze a player than one random game. That was my point. You need to watch many games at various points throughout the year. Games that are early in the weekend and games that are the 3rd in a 3 in 3. Games against the best teams and games against teams not as good. Your video basically doesn't do any of the the things that you espouse above because it is only one game.

I could provide footage of five, six or seven games, but this is a guide for those who are not familiar with these players. I'm sure that many HF readers are interested in discovering what this year's draft candidates are all about.

Additional performance evaluations would certainly help to reinforce those opinions, but in the interest of breadth at the moment, I'll be looking at other players instead of cutting more footage of one individual. If you are compiling a list or developing reports about these players, I encourage you to watch more footage.

This concise presentation is intended to introduce the prospect to those who might otherwise only have a vague notion of their overall game.

For the record, I generally lean towards looking at games where their shot totals are higher, as those are the performances where they are most effective at generating scoring opportunities.

I don't intend for this video to replace all of the scouting that we do, but I'd like viewers to have a look at how these players play and not only be familiar with their highlights.

 

[ps241]

I could provide footage of five, six or seven games, but this is a guide for those who are not familiar with these players. I'm sure that many HF readers are interested in discovering what this year's draft candidates are all about.

Additional performance evaluations would certainly help to reinforce those opinions, but in the interest of breadth at the moment, I'll be looking at other players instead of cutting more footage of one individual. If you are compiling a list or developing reports about these players, I encourage you to watch more footage.

This concise presentation is intended to introduce the prospect to those who might otherwise only have a vague notion of their overall game.

For the record, I generally lean towards looking at games where their shot totals are higher, as those are the performances where they are most effective at generating scoring opportunities.

I don't intend for this video to replace all of the scouting that we do, but I'd like viewers to have a look at how these players play and not only be familiar with their highlights.

This is great!!

I 100% agree with what you say at some point I can take a look at any of these guys highlight compilations to see how they score but I am way more interested to see shift by shit for all the reasons you have laid out. I also like the idea of getting these types of mini revues for as many prospects as possible as an introduction inflection point. Its great for guys like me who have not seen much of these prospects. I understand the limitations of one game sample sizes but its a great complimentary piece of material.

Keep up the good work I really appreciate it.

 

[Daneurism]

You're mistaking a calculated approach to the game with a low motor.

 

[Daneurism]

Many of the people commenting in this thread watch full games, myself included. I respect the approach but disagree with the conclusion.

This kind of analysis is great though. More of it would be welcome.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

I could provide footage of five, six or seven games, but this is a guide for those who are not familiar with these players. I'm sure that many HF readers are interested in discovering what this year's draft candidates are all about.

Additional performance evaluations would certainly help to reinforce those opinions, but in the interest of breadth at the moment, I'll be looking at other players instead of cutting more footage of one individual. If you are compiling a list or developing reports about these players, I encourage you to watch more footage.

This concise presentation is intended to introduce the prospect to those who might otherwise only have a vague notion of their overall game.

For the record, I generally lean towards looking at games where their shot totals are higher, as those are the performances where they are most effective at generating scoring opportunities.

I don't intend for this video to replace all of the scouting that we do, but I'd like viewers to have a look at how these players play and not only be familiar with their highlights.

I think 1 game is ok if there is enough in that one game to show the aspects of his game you want to show... If there was one shift in a clip where he either did or did not backcheck .. its hard to draw any conclusions. I think you need a bigger sample size to make your points about how they play. Like Draft Dynasty or Scouching... That said I did not mind the one game .. but its hard to use it to sway an evaluation

 

[Just Linda]

I think Mittelstadt and Perfetti are a good comparison, Perfetti is the prospect that I'm having a really hard time assessing for that reason.

Ive made no secret my hesitation of Mittelstadt as a prospect, I watched so much tape on him when he was being called by some as a top prospect outside hockey (a few analysts ranked him at one point as the best NHL drafted prospect before the 2018 draft), I watched all 34 games he played at U of Minn to try to determine if I was wrong about him. To me he was more of a 3rd line centre than the top line centre that some claimed he would be (still some 2nd line centre in him, I accept the argument that he will get there but I don't agree with it). I see a handful of players that I like to put into the same box, Wahlstrom is there for me, Mittelstadt is there, bunch others who I don't feel have the edge/ grit/ ability to raise their game/ motor/ whatever that next step looks like for them.

I don't see Perfetti as a Drouin, Galchenyuk, etc etc etc. I think he has the commitment that a lot of draft busts dont have, he seems like a guy who puts the work in.

What I'm trying to say is that I see the potential to increase the motor, take the next step but I'm not seeing it yet, but I'm seeing the potential for it to come out. Id take him as a draft faller but not reach for him?

To focus my thoughts on this, the TLDR version is that I think its a good comparison and I think that Perfetti has it in him to break past what kept Mittelstadt couldnt. Barring injury, mental health, or whatever else could hit him, I'm 65% on him being a bottom 6er and 15% on him being able to take the next step, and 20% on him being a bust. I type that with no confidence though, it seems to shift a bit by the day.