Schneider's PK SV% is not some fluke or anomoly. It's because he has elite leg speed, reactions and does not quit. And it's for the direct opposite of those reasons Luongo will likely only get worse on the PK. His legs are slow, he does not battle and gives up easily.
Are you a goalie scout? My problem with this kind of analysis is that it lends itself to forming a narrative based on results. Of course you can look at Schneider and come up with any number of reasons for his likely anomalous/unsustainable play at 4v5. But if you look at these kind of goaltending projections based on scouting on leg speed, blocking, tracking, etc. when they're done
before goaltenders are in the league, they're so clearly wrong -- as they often are for position players, but the swing-and-miss rate on goalies is... high. People called Marek Schwarz a bigger, more athletic Dominek Hasek.
The guy that runs the goalie guild wrote some big post last summer about what a washed-up loser Bobrovsky was and then deleted it from the site shortly before this year's award season, rather than stand by his "analysis".
That isn't to say goaltenders don't have unique skillsets. I just tend to think most coaches are smart enough -- either consciously or subconsciously -- to tailor their team play to minimize or maximize the play of the guy in net. So even if there are differences, they're probably mostly at the margins. Plus there's obviously a learning/development curve at every position, but there are so few goaltenders compared to position players that it's harder to get huge data pools to draw from, I think. Heck, we don't even have ES SV data for guys like Roy from their prime years!
Edit: also worth noting that the sort of analysis you're providing is the same analysis that leads "experts" everywhere to keep anointing Carey Price the best young goaltender in the world, even if the results haven't matched up to that at all. Goaltending is still a whole lot of unknowns.
