Confirmed with Link: [VAN/FLA] Canucks acquire Erik Gudbranson, 2016 5th ~ PT2

[absolute garbage]

I, myself, started off hating the trade. But the more I look at it the more I'm okay with it. I threw a huge hissy fit on Twitter (as you do of course ) when it was announced. But I think that over time it made me realize that this probably means Luca Sbisa will get traded as you say.

At least we have a actual top 4 now. Instead of having Bartkowski in our top 4. Gudbrason at least is capable of playing big minutes. Looking at his QoCRelCorsi it shows he takes very hard matchups. So moving him away from that probably will benifit his overall corsi. Plus the fact that he won't get that much defensive zone starts in Vancouver. All that suggests his numbers will increase playing here IMO.

Also, I'm super pissed that War-on-ice is pooping out on us right when this trade went down. Opendoor called me out on the QoC stats by using rraw stats and I've been eager to look at the QoC TOI stats which I find to be the most reliable stats when it comes to QoC.

We might have gaven up too much, no argument here. But there is still some excitement of us adding a top 4 defensemen. Even though we are probably still going to suck next year.

You are a weird poster. Weren't you the one who absolutely slammed Sutter a year ago, and couldn't even believe the stats that made him look good in certain areas?

Here we have a player in an exact same situation, except instead of being a 25yo with 6 years of experience he is a 24yo with 5 years of experience, and you are suddenly super excited about this guy?

I know your views on prospects and young players are pretty ridiculous and unrealistic but is this really where you draw the line? That one year and one season? Other one is completely hopeless and other one is exciting and promising?



Also, couple of other points:

Luca Sbisa traded? Good luck with that. That contract has a NMC if I've ever seen one. And also you are talking about Benning admitting a mistake. That's not going to happen. He's going to be a mainstay in the 3rd pairing.

An actual top 4? Yeah, not really. We're probably not going to re-sign Hamhuis so we're back to square one. If anything, the defense is going to be actually worse (I guess it depends on how Hutton develops).

Also your info on Gudbranson playing tough minutes is very controversial. Personally, from what I can gather, he has played those minutes, yes, but not well at all. He had his most success playing with Campbell in a non-shutdown role. Generally Gudbranson's underlying numbers are all really bad. That's not really a surprise, since he's a no-skill defender. These players traditionally can't transition and get hemmed in their own zone.

You say he is not going to get as much defensive zone starts in Vancouver since we already have a shutdown pairing in Edler-Tanev. That's a fair assumption, but the problem here is this one: he's going to get more offensive zone starts. Our defense was already one of the worst in the league what comes to offense, and this is going handicap them even more.

I'd be excited if we added a top 4 defenseman at reasonable cost, definitely. But we just added a middling defender at an absolute premium of a price. That's not exciting, that's pathetic.

 

[Whale]

Has anyone bothered to look at McCanns advanced stats?

Or noticed that Pasternak was the next player picked and has 53 career points already to McCanns 18? Or Fabbri for that matter, who was picked just three before McCann and had twice as many points in his rookie season? Where does McCann fit into his class, or where does he rate compared to other teenagers that have made the NHL over the last few years. Not very high. He was a flop right up to the day he got traded, now he's suddenly a future #2 center.

It's funny how many Benning haters suddenly think that he can actually draft and make good value trades.

So how about the real value of a 33rd pick?

2013 Adam Erne
2012 Sebastien Collberg
2011 Rocco Grimaldi
2010 John McFarland
2009 Ryan O'Reilly*
2008 Philip McRae
2007 Taylor Ellington
2008 Igor Markov
2007 James Neal*
2006 Chris Bourque

That looks to be a 20% hit rate, none of the other guys are even projected to play a full NHL season. Is that really a disaster? It looks like it about a 20% chance of coming back and biting us, which is an 80% chance of it meaning nothing at all.

How about looking a comparable trades, like the Griffin Reinheart deal.

For me, it's a good deal, but like every other deal that Benning has made, we'll only really know in 4-5 seasons. Imagining futures is a far from perfect science or everyone would win every pool. There are so many straw man arguments on these boards it looks like a Manitoba wheat field.

Lets face it, there are certain fans of this team that are negative about anything and everything the club does and they like to come on here and rant and rave. No matter how many times they are proven wrong they just keep on slagging the team, and the more they dig their heels in, the more they actually want the team to fail to just to prove their petty internet points. Their tone never changes, we win back to back Presidents Trophies, they hate everything, suck and get high picks, they hate the picks, every player sucks right up to the moment they get traded away then they are suddenly future stars.

It must be pretty miserable for them, for me it doesn't really fit with my idea of being a fan. Fortunately most fans of the team have a more positive attitude and know that a fan base that is a negative distraction for the players does absolutely nothing to help the team succeed.

Gudbranson is a Canuck now and I hope that he has a great career with our team because I want us to win and I trust that the management does too and are doing their best.

Hopefully he has a thick skin and a "prove the doubters" wrong mentality, cause he'll need it with some of the soul sucking haters that make this the most negative fan base in the league. Just watch how hard it is for the players and coaches to say **** like "we have the best fans in the league, they are so... passionate, and... knowledgeable" without looking like they are about to choke on the enormity of that ********... We could take a page from the fans in Utica and try cheering for our team through thick and thin, it actually works.

Aaaanyways,

GO CANUCKS GO and WELCOME ERIK GUDBRANSON!

 

[Tobi Wan Kenobi]

I love how everybody was so upset we drafted McCann. I and like maybe one or two others were happy with it. Barbashev or Sherbak definitely don't get you Gudbranson. Cheers mates! I'm still on the fence about the trade and most likely will be until chirstmas of next year but I just love how you all hated the draft pick and now are raging that he's gone.

 

[Virtanen2Horvat]

I don't know Bogosians game too much but for ppl to like him in WPG he must have been a defensive D. And he has size so I can see that as a comparison.

 

[m9]

I love how everybody was so upset we drafted McCann. I and like maybe one or two others were happy with it. Barbashev or Sherbak definitely don't get you Gudbranson. Cheers mates! I'm still on the fence about the trade and most likely will be until chirstmas of next year but I just love how you all hated the draft pick and now are raging that he's gone.

It's just another day around here.

Kesler trade sucks, we didn't get anyone. But people get mad when we trade Bonino, then again when we trade the guy picked with the draft pick from the trade. So the Kesler trade was good then, because Bonino and McCann were actually good? It's hard to follow.

I like the terrible Benning trades that are bad right away, they're much easier to figure out. Luckily he has a bunch of those too.

 

[Tinhorn1]

NHL teams still use basic CORSI statistics. They use them in conjuction with the more proprietary revisions they have in-house. My source for this is John Chayka on TSN1040, who I believe stated that the "base models still inform their processes" (or something to that effect).

Who is claiming advanced stats are "infallible"?

I think you would be far better off combating what is actually being said, rather than how it is said.

You're right. This is a tilting at windmills moment and completely pointless, probably. There are certain posters I could point to, but I won't get personal about it. There are posters who admit the limitations of the numbers and use them to inform the debate, and there are those who use the numbers as some sort of definitive proof, anyone else being "wrong." But yeah, who really cares, I suppose.

 

[jonnygf40]

It's just another day around here.

Kesler trade sucks, we didn't get anyone. But people get mad when we trade Bonino, then again when we trade the guy picked with the draft pick from the trade. So the Kesler trade was good then, because Bonino and McCann were actually good? It's hard to follow.

I like the terrible Benning trades that are bad right away, they're much easier to figure out. Luckily he has a bunch of those too.

They were talking about the Kesler trade on TSN 1040 yesterday. Essentially the trade was;

Out: Kesler
In: Suter, Gudbranson, Sbisa

I think every team makes that trade 10/10, despite what your personal feeling may be about the players involved or the subsequent deals they were given.

 

[Jimson Hogarth*]

You are a weird poster. Weren't you the one who absolutely slammed Sutter a year ago, and couldn't even believe the stats that made him look good in certain areas?

Here we have a player in an exact same situation, except instead of being a 25yo with 6 years of experience he is a 24yo with 5 years of experience, and you are suddenly super excited about this guy?

I know your views on prospects and young players are pretty ridiculous and unrealistic but is this really where you draw the line? That one year and one season? Other one is completely hopeless and other one is exciting and promising?



Also, couple of other points:

Luca Sbisa traded? Good luck with that. That contract has a NMC if I've ever seen one. And also you are talking about Benning admitting a mistake. That's not going to happen. He's going to be a mainstay in the 3rd pairing.

An actual top 4? Yeah, not really. We're probably not going to re-sign Hamhuis so we're back to square one. If anything, the defense is going to be actually worse (I guess it depends on how Hutton develops).

Also your info on Gudbranson playing tough minutes is very controversial. Personally, from what I can gather, he has played those minutes, yes, but not well at all. He had his most success playing with Campbell in a non-shutdown role. Generally Gudbranson's underlying numbers are all really bad. That's not really a surprise, since he's a no-skill defender. These players traditionally can't transition and get hemmed in their own zone.

You say he is not going to get as much defensive zone starts in Vancouver since we already have a shutdown pairing in Edler-Tanev. That's a fair assumption, but the problem here is this one: he's going to get more offensive zone starts. Our defense was already one of the worst in the league what comes to offense, and this is going handicap them even more.

I'd be excited if we added a top 4 defenseman at reasonable cost, definitely. But we just added a middling defender at an absolute premium of a price. That's not exciting, that's pathetic.

How is this a premium price? A good prospect and a 2nd isn't a premium...

And how will our defence be worse this year? Please give your reasoning.

 

[Fat Tony]

I just love how you all hated the draft pick and now are raging that he's gone.

Can you cite an example?

 

[Fat Tony]

Kesler trade sucks, we didn't get anyone. But people get mad when we trade Bonino, then again when we trade the guy picked with the draft pick from the trade. So the Kesler trade was good then, because Bonino and McCann were actually good? It's hard to follow.

How about "throwing good money after bad"? Or "downgrade of a downgrade of a downgrade"? Is that easier to understand?

 

[Jimson Hogarth*]

It's just another day around here.

Kesler trade sucks, we didn't get anyone. But people get mad when we trade Bonino, then again when we trade the guy picked with the draft pick from the trade. So the Kesler trade was good then, because Bonino and McCann were actually good? It's hard to follow.

I like the terrible Benning trades that are bad right away, they're much easier to figure out. Luckily he has a bunch of those too.

Yup people are pretty transparent... McCann was Utica bound next year in most people's eyes until he was traded and became sure fire 2nd line Center with the skill to have a 1st line ceiling.

To really have a good laugh I go see what the same posters who have had a 48 hour meltdown about trading McCann had to say about him on his draft day. That thread is hilarious.

 

[rune74]

Some of you are going to great lengths to say how bad a player this player is. I'm honestly beginning to wonder what the point of that is? I can understand wondering about the price, but to run the player down?

The lengths some of you go to do this make it pretty transparent.

 

[SvenBaertschi]

I love how everybody was so upset we drafted McCann.

I remember the exact opposite actually. Although a lot of posters did poke fun at his "it is what it is" comment at the draft.

 

[Jimson Hogarth*]

Can you cite an example?

McCann draft thread

 

[Jimson Hogarth*]

I remember the exact opposite actually. Although a lot of posters did poke fun at his "it is what it is" comment at the draft.

You remember wrong. Thread was filled with the same Benning hate from the usual suspects because we didn't draft Ehlers and Barbashev.

 

[timw33]

I remember the exact opposite actually. Although a lot of posters did poke fun at his "it is what it is" comment at the draft.

Nah, there were a lot of pissed off people because he got labeled as a two-way forward and then everyone was screaming that we need offence.

 

[thefeebster]

I didn't like McCann much when he was drafted and not much has changed. I said at the time he was a very inconsistent player in the OHL who showed his talent in flashes but had troubles with a consistent effort (often floating in and out of games) and battle. That carried over to the NHL. However, that doesn't mean he doesn't have value and in this trade, I think his value and the picks have been squandered. I have no troubles or issues with trading him. He probably was our best trade bait and I would probably be in the same boat, trying to shop him for a defenseman. But not for this defenseman or this type of defender.

At the OHL level, he was a two way center man but a lot of ppl were confused that he was some kind of brute, and that article about how he crosschecks guys in the mouth didn't help. He was always a finesse two way centerman, anyone who watched him would have known that.

 

[Catamarca Livin]

Drance says this trade shows Canucks not rebuilding. The issue I have with that is why can you not rebuild with 24 year olds instead of 20 year olds?

 

[Jimson Hogarth*]

Nah, there were a lot of pissed off people because he got labeled as a two-way forward and then everyone was screaming that we need offence.

"A more Meat and potatoes kind of player"
HfCanucks meltdown ensued.

Of course come may 2016 McCann is a super skilled sure fire top 6 Center.

 

[SvenBaertschi]

Nah, there were a lot of pissed off people because he got labeled as a two-way forward and then everyone was screaming that we need offence.

MB, people must've been really excited after his development/+1 .

 

[DCantheDDad]

"A more Meat and potatoes kind of player"
HfCanucks meltdown ensued.

Of course come may 2016 McCann is a super skilled sure fire top 6 Center.

It's a good thing people don't change their minds as more evidence is presented. Otherwise we could re-evaluate our stances and even have different opinions with the passage of time. That would be terrible.

 

[Jimson Hogarth*]

It's a good thing people don't change their minds as more evidence is presented. Otherwise we could re-evaluate our stances and even have different opinions with the passage of time. That would be terrible.

If I saw true contrition over those mistakes I'd agree with your sarcastic point.

 

[m9]

Yup people are pretty transparent... McCann was Utica bound next year in most people's eyes until he was traded and became sure fire 2nd line Center with the skill to have a 1st line ceiling.

To really have a good laugh I go see what the same posters who have had a 48 hour meltdown about trading McCann had to say about him on his draft day. That thread is hilarious.

I still really like McCann, I think he's going to be a fine 2nd/3rd line winger. But yeah, the up-and-down is a bit much.

 

[banme*]

You're right. This is a tilting at windmills moment and completely pointless, probably. There are certain posters I could point to, but I won't get personal about it. There are posters who admit the limitations of the numbers and use them to inform the debate, and there are those who use the numbers as some sort of definitive proof, anyone else being "wrong." But yeah, who really cares, I suppose.

If it's any consolation, I support you

 

[iceburg]

Drance says this trade shows Canucks not rebuilding. The issue I have with that is why can you not rebuild with 24 year olds instead of 20 year olds?

I think the point is that a true rebuild happens through the draft and implies that the team needs to be at the bottom of the league for at least 2 or 3 years to get the high end picks (eg Tampa (Hedman, Stamkos) Chicago (Kane and Toews)). This trade is clearly a move to get better now and comes at the expense of future assets. So, not a true re-build but rather adding pieces to what already exists to win now.
I'm not commenting on whether or not I agree with the strategy just that the comments by Drance are based on this logic.