Value of: Value of Joel Hofer for those teams struggling to keep goals out

[jjniner]

Playing in front of an abysmal D corp, Hofer having a fantastic year.

Not sure what these goalies return. Net is JB’s for 4 more years.

Thanks!

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[stl76]

Weird thread. Blues have zero reason to trade Hofer. Having him and Binnington in net is a huge source of strength for the franchise moving forward.

Goalies, particularly young ones just getting established in the league, do not hold the type of value that would make it worth the Blues’ time to trade Hofer.

 

[bleedblue1223]

Hofer won't be the one to go when that decision eventually gets made. We'll have another top tandem with them next year at a cheap rate, and even with his next deal, it would still be pretty cheap, but Zherenko or Ellis would likely force a move of some goalie.

For a team to trade for Hofer right now, it would have to be something absurd.

 

[Beauterham]

I'd rather keep Hofer to see if he can keep up his level of play in a slightly expanded role. If so, and we're probably still a few years away to contending, trading Binnington might make more sense next trade deadline or the one after that.

 

[dgibb10]

If he was to be traded probably like a 2nd would be his value

 

[theslatcher]

If he was to be traded probably like a 2nd would be his value

He'd most likely return less.

 

[dgibb10]

He'd most likely return less.

My comps here were the Vladar deal, Vitek (when washington got him back from Seattle), Adin Hill (not to Vegas but from when SJS paid a 2nd for him) deals.

 

[Linkens Mastery]

... why are we trying to trade Hofer? Also Binner only has 3 years left and has a 18/14/10 team NTC over those three years. So moving him would not be an issue.

 

[Bijelo]

Weird thread. Blues have zero reason to trade Hofer

Just that. Hofer will stay at Blues side. Blues are chasing a new trophy.

 

[Vladys Gumption]

Hofer’s value to the Blues is far higher than the paltry return he’d get. Goalies just don’t hold much trade value, especially young goalies without a full season’s starter load under their belt.

It’s not even worth the effort of trying to shop him. And that’s ignoring the fact that he’s still cheap and good insurance against a Binnignton backslide in play.

 

[PocketNines]

They need to see what happens next year with both goalies. If it's similar to this year in addition to their AHL goalies developing then the issue might be forced, but it's not a ripe discussion yet.

In October Binnington is going to become the franchise's all time top netminder in wins and I don't think he would be the guy moved. Regardless, the Blues not having a real #1 D they need to be able to put a top caliber goalie out there every night right now

 

[bleedblue1223]

My comps here were the Vladar deal, Vitek (when washington got him back from Seattle), Adin Hill (not to Vegas but from when SJS paid a 2nd for him) deals.

Don't really see how any of those are quality comps based on what Hofer has done this season. He'd get more than what you are thinking, but I also agree that he'd get less than what we'd want.

I'd have him closer to a Martin Jones comp when he was moved for a 1st. Could even go back to Halak. These guys are more similar to Hofer's metrics than the others.

 

[dgibb10]

Don't really see how any of those are quality comps based on what Hofer has done this season.

Every fanbase thinks their prospect goalie is a surefire stud down the line. Nobody is paying a 1st for it. If teams were willing to pay 1sts for goalie prospects of the Schmid/Pyotr/Ersson/Hofer/Dostals tier, you'd see them traded a lot more often.

 

[bleedblue1223]

Hell, Ben Bishop got a 2nd when we moved him with virtually no NHL resume.

Every fanbase thinks their prospect goalie is a surefire stud down the line. Nobody is paying a 1st for it. If teams were willing to pay 1sts for goalie prospects of the Schmid/Pyotr/Ersson/Hofer/Dostals tier, you'd see them traded a lot more often.

Except, he's not a prospect, and he has very good advanced metrics. There is some risk in if he can transfer that from a backup role to a starter role, but to pretend he's just a prospect at this point is silly.

 

[Captain Mountain]

Don't really see how any of those are quality comps based on what Hofer has done this season. He'd get more than what you are thinking, but I also agree that he'd get less than what we'd want.

I'd have him closer to a Martin Jones comp when he was moved for a 1st. Could even go back to Halak. These guys are more similar to Hofer's metrics than the others.

The only time Halak went for the equivalent of around a 1st was in 2010 when he was coming off a season where he was 4th in save percentage, 6th in xGSAA and 3rd in xGSAA/60 among goalies with 20 or more starts and carried a team in the conference finals. Its not even remotely comparable.

The Jones trade makes more sense as a comp, but goalie trade values aren't the same now as they were then and there may be a lot of goalies available in trade who are more proven and better regarded.

He's been good (with good advanced metrics), but they can be incredibly volatile among goalies. Teams that would pay a lot for him would likely prefer someone with a longer track record of strong play.

Blues are better off just keeping him.

 

[dgibb10]

Hell, Ben Bishop got a 2nd when we moved him with virtually no NHL resume.


Except, he's not a prospect, and he has very good advanced metrics. There is some risk in if he can transfer that from a backup role to a starter role, but to pretend he's just a prospect at this point is silly.

He has less than 35 career games he's a prospect be more realistic.

Here's a comparison:

Goalie A: 46 games in age 22-23 seasons, 0.910, 2.58 GAA, 10.97 GSAx
Goalie B: 33 games in age 22-23 seasons, 0.912, 2.74 GAA, 9.76 GSAx

Very very similar numbers.

Goalie A is Akira Schmid, goalie B is Hofer.

Schmid's numbers are also tanked by 2 occasions on which he had to start both nights of a back to back, which is something Hofer has never had to do. Those 2 starts, including one after he had made 44 saves the night before, have tanked his GSAx by about 5 goals, and his save% by 5 points

 

[Captain Mountain]

Hell, Ben Bishop got a 2nd when we moved him with virtually no NHL resume.


Except, he's not a prospect, and he has very good advanced metrics. There is some risk in if he can transfer that from a backup role to a starter role, but to pretend he's just a prospect at this point is silly.

In similar minutes, so do Stolarz, Brossoit, Rittich, Levi, Quick, Jones, Woll and Hill. It doesn't really tell us much with such a small sample.

Goaltending is really hard to predict. even goalies that most agree are among the best can have a lot of variance in both boxcar stats and "advanced" metrics.

 

[Bijelo]

In similar minutes, so do Stolarz, Brossoit, Rittich, Levi, Quick, Jones, Woll and Hill. It doesn't really tell us much with such a small sample.

Quick is probably best after Hallebuyck in United States.

 

[Unbiased Fan]

The smartest thing to do would be to trade Binnington for Campbell++++ imo

 

[BlueDream]

He'd most likely return less.

Cool, he won’t be traded at all since he’s a future starter.

 

[Vladys Gumption]

The smartest thing to do would be to trade Binnington for Campbell++++ imo

That’s an utterly terrible idea for the Blues. Campbell is literally in the AHL. And he’s signed for longer.

 

[Unbiased Fan]

That’s an utterly terrible idea for the Blues. Campbell is literally in the AHL. And he’s signed for longer.

Yeah he sucks but he’s cheaper and the oilers would pay a franchise altering premium to dump his contract

 

[Vladys Gumption]

Yeah he sucks but he’s cheaper and the oilers would pay a franchise altering premium to dump his contract

He’s 1 million dollars cheaper, but he’s far worse. I’ve got zero interest in taking on a worse goalie for anything other slot on would reasonably be able to pay.

 

[Unbiased Fan]

He’s 1 million dollars cheaper, but he’s far worse. I’ve got zero interest in taking on a worse goalie for anything other slot on would reasonably be able to pay.

So some like Campbell and 4 1st round picks for Binnington wouldn’t interest you?

 

[Xerloris]

He has less than 35 career games he's a prospect be more realistic.

Here's a comparison:

Goalie A: 46 games in age 22-23 seasons, 0.910, 2.58 GAA, 10.97 GSAx
Goalie B: 33 games in age 22-23 seasons, 0.912, 2.74 GAA, 9.76 GSAx

Very very similar numbers.

Goalie A is Akira Schmid, goalie B is Hofer.

Schmid's numbers are also tanked by 2 occasions on which he had to start both nights of a back to back, which is something Hofer has never had to do. Those 2 starts, including one after he had made 44 saves the night before, have tanked his GSAx by about 5 goals, and his save% by 5 points

Those numbers don't match up to Schmid. As he hasn't even played 46 games in his career yet.