Tennis: US Open 2023

[Tuggy]

Qualifying kicks off this week!

https://www.usopen.org/index.html

Click to read more...

 

[Tuggy]

Defending champs are Alcaraz and Swiatek.

Of course no Djokovic at the tournament last year (Covid rules) but he is back this time around. Epic final in Cincy yesterday between Djokovic and Alcaraz (Djokovic winning a 3rd set TB), could be a preview of the US Open final. All signs seem to point to these two meeting in a final again but we'll see how the draws end up. Medvedev or Hurkacz or a few others could get there aswell.

Swiatek probably a slight favorite right now. Gauff coming off a big win in Cincy and in front of the home crowd should make a deep run. If Sabalenka has her head on straight then she may be my pick. Pegula has had a strong year and will be another with the home crowd behind her.

 

[Tuggy]

Qualifying draws are out.

3 Canadians on the Men's side (Diallo, Pospisil and Galarneau) and two on the Women's side (Sebov and Bouchard).

Play kicks out today.

 

[ThaDevilGirl]

I lurk the tennis thread from time to time, never a poster. But this time I can't contain my excitement as I will be going to New York in two weeks for two QF sessions! This is a bucket list item for me... Can't wait!

 

[kihei]

The draw is not out yet but I'm picking you know who versus you know who in the finals. Nole and Carlitos have made guessing the finalists in major tennis tournaments a dull, humdrum exercise.

 

[17futurecap]

I’ll be there first Monday and first Thursday, honestly counting down the days, it’s by far my favorite sporting event I am lucky to live close enough to get to go to.

I wouldn’t pick against Carlos or Novak to make the final, but a good reminder, Alcaraz won two battles beating Sinner and Tiafoe last year to make the final.

You never know, and that’s why they play the matches.

I think Sinner has a chance to pull an upset in the later rounds if he could avoid some long early matches.

As for the Americans, Tiafoe had an awful summer, Fritz was meh, and has really struggled at the Open. Tommy Paul most in form, so that probably means he will go out early, and one of Tiafoe or Fritz will be the last American standing.

I don’t have the slightest clue on the women’s side, you could probably name 8-10 people with a shot.

 

[Tuggy]

This will be big John's last tournament.

 

[kihei]

So after a quick glance (according to seeding):

"Piece of cake" early round draw for Nole: Muller, BZM, Djere, FAA, Fritz or Tiafoe, Rune, Carlos

Good draw for Medvedev; Balazs, Purcell, Coric, de Minaur, Rublev, Carlos, Nole

Significantly more difficult draw for Carlos as he has to play both Sinner and Medvedev along the way: Koepfer, Harris, Evans, Norrie, Sinner, Medvedev, Nole

My picks for the quarters and beyond:

Carlos/Sinner
Medvedev/Hurkacz

Ruud/Paul
Nole/Fritz

Carlos/Hurkacz
Paul/Nole

Nole over Carlos

Heavy on Americans. I like Hurkacz as a sleeper. Outside of Carlos, Nole and Sinner, not a lot of players in form right now, so upsets may be plentiful.

 

[CupofOil]

Djokovic's draw is a joke compared to Alcaraz's but Carlos seems to thrive in the bigger matches so it might work to his advantage.

I have a feeling that we see a surprise or two in the semis/finals. Alcaraz is due to show his age and lose an earlier round match at some point and the US Open is Djokovic's weakest slam.
Unfortunately, outside of Medvedev, the field is full of has beens, never weres and unprovens so I have no idea who could possibly challenge the top guys. One would think Sinner probably, maybe Zverev, but that's all I got.

Men's tennis is in a real transition phase. The field is as weak as it's been in a really long time outside of the top 2, weakest it's been in....17-18 years?. The sport needs a breakthrough from somebody new. Rune and Ruud as the 4th and 5th seeds illustrates how weak this era is.

 

[17futurecap]

I had to look up the guy Medvedev is playing in round 1, on a PR, 34 years old, and has played 3 matches this year.

Losing 6-2 6-0
Losing 6-2 6-2
Losing 6-1 6-1

Protected ranking is stupid sometimes when players are just gaming the system to get checks.

 

[Novak Djokovic]

Anything less than finals for Novak would be a big disappointment looking at that draw.

 

[kihei]

Watched Korda''s three-set win over Gasquet today and was so unimpressed that I am switching my quarterfinal pick above to Ruud. I keep looking at those stokes and thinking Seb has to make a breakthrough at some point, right? But his performance today was utterly passionless; a wilted flower in the summer heat. Had not Richard choked very badly at the end, Korda would have, should have lost.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Watched Korda''s three-set win over Gasquet today and was so unimpressed that I am switching my quarterfinal pick above to Ruud. I keep looking at those stokes and thinking Seb has to make a breakthrough at some point, right? But his performance today was utterly passionless; a wilted flower in the summer heat. Had not Richard choked very badly at the end, Korda would have, should have lost.

He’s the best player in the world that actually isn’t any good. And he’s injured half the season too. I’m tired of the excuses people make for him. It’s fun watching him play, but the dude is way too good to be mediocre, yet that’s exactly what he is. Hope he proves me wrong by winning the event this week and carrying that over into the next few, but I doubt it.

The younger of the two sisters is the same way, but it’s even more maddening. The most gifted women’s golfer in the world, yet hasn’t done anything in the big events outside of one time. And the older of the two sisters isn’t as good, but has underachieved in her career.

It seems to run in the family.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

I’m not sure I expect it, but Sinner is absolutely due to win a slam and Rune isn’t too far behind. I think both will win them within the next 10. It’s not going to be Djokovic and Alcaraz for all of them.

Djokovic: 45%
Alcaraz: 45%
Field: 10% (Sinner at 5/Rune at 2.5/Zverev and Medvedev each at 1.25)

 

[VMBM]

On the men's side, it's either Alcaraz or Djokovic, pretty much a 50—50 match. I'd love to see someone else win, but there are no other true greats around ATM, at least not at their best.

As for the ladies, it's been anyone's guess for a while now; almost everyone can beat everyone, if a little exaggeration is allowed. Maybe I'd pick Swiatek, but at the same time would not be overly surprised if she lost already in the earlier rounds.

 

[kihei]

Lehecka gets a walkover as Korda withdraws from Winston Salem.

 

[17futurecap]

Baez gets the best of Coric in 3 hours 19 minutes, and they meet again on Tuesday in round 1.

Honestly might be better for Coric in the long run not having to play an extra match tomorrow in the final, and getting settled into NYC tomorrow afternoon.

 

[MsMeow]

Bianca is out with a stress fracture in her back.

 

[Tuggy]

Bianca is out with a stress fracture in her back.

Can't see her ever being healthy sadly...

First round kicks off tomorrow. Felix in action.

 

[kihei]

I was curious about this and so I looked it up.

Statistically anyway, a Djokovic/Alcaraz US Open final is an ultra long shot. Since 1990 when Cincinnati became a 1000-level tournament, only once (2015 with Nole and Roger) have the Cicny finalists gone on to become the US Open finalists, meaning the chances of this happening again--Alcaraz and Djokovic meeting in the US Open finals, in this case--is around 3%.

 

[weems]

This Emilio Nava kid is really good.

Never actually watched him before but he's giving Ruud tons of problems currently and Ruud is playing good.

Lots of pace, quick, constructs points very well and seems to have a good intensity.

A name to watch out for going forward.

 

[kihei]

Rune (4) is the first high seed to bite the dust, losing to the previously unthreatening Carballes Baena in four pretty dismal sets (for Rune, not RCB, obviously).

Sakkari (8) is also out unceremoniously in straight sets.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Rune (4) is the first high seed to bite the dust, losing to the previously unthreatening Carballes Baena in four pretty dismal sets (for Rune, not RCB, obviously).

Sakkari (8) is also out unceremoniously in straight sets.

I think Rune came in with an injury. This should hypothetically open up the draw even more for Tommy Paul.

 

[MsMeow]

Felix is so disappointing. There is no killer instinct and no big weapon.

 

[Tuggy]

Felix is so disappointing. There is no killer instinct and no big weapon.

Yup, very disappointing.