Post-Game Talk: "Unfortunately, since I bet on the other team, uh, we won't be going for pizza." (Jets 4 Flames 1)

[SUX2BU]

The dissatisfaction over a loss, or over bad play has no connection to the gratitude for having a team, one way or another. Just 2 totally separate things.

I use that multi-quote thingy when it fits.

fair enough. I’m just sick of the whining

 

[ps241]

Heinola should probably be playing now. I wonder if Stanley has been getting all of the games because Cgy was expected to play a (dirty) physical game? If that is not the reason, then Heinola and Stanley should have been sharing the available games. Beaulieu should go to the PB once he has enough games to qualify for the XD.

I will be extremely disappointed if Samberg can't win a regular spot on the 3rd pair this year, given his age and experience. That will tell me that he will never be much, if any better than a #5. We don't need him to be a #5, we need #3 or #4 at least from him.

They have been practicing enough, long enough, that he should be able to play for the Jets by now. In TC the long lay-off was used to explain his failure to make the team. That excuse should be gone by now.

If we have to downgrade our estimates of our D prospects, then we are still in trouble with our D corps, even with the unexpected bonus from Stanley.

I am not going to read anything into the decisions our coaching staff make about D choices yet. They are huge on tenure and vetiness.

Seems like they want to have Samberg and my guess Heinola play allot in the AHL for a stretch even if they are better now.

It’s how they roll.

 

[SUX2BU]

As someone who was around in 1996, I'm going to push back on this. Losing the team was brutal, and the joy of their return was deeply felt. But the idea that you can only be a thankful and good fan is by being a cheerleader is really obnoxious to me. I think we would all get along on the boards a lot better if people would drop garbage narratives.

If being a fan of the Jets through good times and bad since 1972, then yeah, I’m a good cheerleader and fan.

But don’t be so righteous in saying that I am dropping garbage narratives. This is an hockey board forum and I’m just stating my opinion.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Two things:

It will be important for both guys to play games. Heinola did get the WJC and games in Finland, Samberg has not played in a long time. The Moose starting up will be great for their development. I don't think we can discount that in the big picture of their development either.

Second, Heinola's ELC sliding could be quite important to our next contending window both in terms of cap space and extending his years to UFA. Obviously we're speculating on where the Jets see themselves today but to me the next window really opens next season, they could go on a run this season too but have some opportunities to really super charge the roster this off-season.

I was expecting Heinola to not make it this year, at least in part because of the contract issues.

I expected Samberg instead of Stanley. Much as I have liked Stanley's play, I don't see him making the Jets this year as being important for the longer term strength of our D corps. I still don't see him helping to rebuild the top end of our D. Samberg might have. But if he can't beat out Stanley now then he probably won't either. That leaves all of our hopes on Heinola. I don't think he can make a big enough difference by himself. He can't be in 2 places at once.

If our next window is to open next season, then we need to be getting those better D prospects into the NHL now. We want them not to be rookies next year. If they just aren't good enough yet, then at least Samberg won't ever be. That doesn't mean he will never make the NHL. I mean that he won't be the guy that turns our D corps around.

The good thing is that it isn't too late for this year.

 

[Atoyot]

Can Samberg play enough in this season we’d have to protect him?

No.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

But our 7th man is Heinola who was our 7th man last year? Bite to?Our 8th is poolman. We didn’t have an 8th last year we had ahl tweeners.
Forbort is better value for his mil than sbisa at his 900 k.

Until we have an injury, 7th and 8th don't mean squat. Of course we will have injuries.

If Poolman is our 8th man. We are done here. We have an outstanding D corps that doesn't need any help.

Is Heinola our 7th? Says who? If he is behind Stanley and Beaulieu I don't care what number you put on him.

2020 2021 Morrissey Morrissey Pionk Pionk DeMelo Forbort Kulikov DeMelo Poolman Poolman Sbisa Stanley Beaulieu Beaulieu Bitetto Niku Dahlstrom Heinola Niku Samberg [TBODY] [/TBODY]

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

I don't see much improvement there. Stanley is not better than Sbisa. The problem with him is that he can't stay healthy. He injured again this year. Beaulieu is in the same position as last year. Niku is not better than Bitetto. Heinola and Samberg don't count unless they start playing. I have them at #9 and #10. Maybe they are 1 position higher if they are above Niku. But are they above Niku? So we are better in the 9th and 10th spots.

You can quibble about exactly who is exactly where, but it won't change the total.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Can Samberg play enough in this season we’d have to protect him?

No, not as far as I know. IIRC, it takes 2 years pro. Euro doesn't count.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

fair enough. I’m just sick of the whining

Fair enough. I am too, including some times when I am doing the whining.

The thing is that it is hard to discuss the team and players objectively without it turning into whining, especially when other posters force you to defend a statement that was only trying to be realistic. It may come off as whiny to third parties.

We are pretty solidly in 3rd in the Div right now and in a 4 way tie for 9th in the league in pts%. Hard to whine about that.

But we have a few players who are not earning their salaries. Not many, but more than zero. We have a weak D corps and don't see any signs of it getting better despite having some promising options. Our coach continues to confound us with some of his decisions. (Though, in fairness he has also surprised by doing some things that people never thought he would. ) So there are still some things to whine about.

But how about that backup goaltending?

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I am not going to read anything into the decisions our coaching staff make about D choices yet. They are huge on tenure and vetiness.

Seems like they want to have Samberg and my guess Heinola play allot in the AHL for a stretch even if they are better now.

It’s how they roll.

Yes, it is how they roll.

I can wait for a while. Not a whole season for Samberg though. If Stanley can play, so can Samberg. Or, if not, then Samberg is not the player I was hoping for.

 

[SUX2BU]

Fair enough. I am too, including some times when I am doing the whining.

The thing is that it is hard to discuss the team and players objectively without it turning into whining, especially when other posters force you to defend a statement that was only trying to be realistic. It may come off as whiny to third parties.

We are pretty solidly in 3rd in the Div right now and in a 4 way tie for 9th in the league in pts%. Hard to whine about that.

But we have a few players who are not earning their salaries. Not many, but more than zero. We have a weak D corps and don't see any signs of it getting better despite having some promising options. Our coach continues to confound us with some of his decisions. (Though, in fairness he has also surprised by doing some things that people never thought he would. ) So there are still some things to whine about.

But how about that backup goaltending?

It’s fine but let’s not talk coaching

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I find them to be a product of their time...as are all logos, really, but some are kind of timeless and some scream "THIS WAS MADE IN 1990!"

The nostalgia factor though...the Selanne jerseys...they'll sell at a good clip, I reckon.

Jets 1.0 logos were always a bit of a kludge to me. Like they were done by a 12 YO boy. Any logo that needs to be put in a circle is weak. But thinking up good logos isn't actually all that easy.

Jets 2.0 logo doesn't need to be put in a circle. It is a circle. Blatantly copying the RCAF roundel is also a little weak. But I don't hate it.

It isn't necessary for a logo to incorporate every aspect of an organization. Trying that leads to a busy logo that lacks impact. The Nike swoosh is considered to be one of the best ever. I think Jets logo should be something like a profile of a CF-18, either monochrome or drawn in the style of the movies Cars or Wings

Hmmmm - not sure where I heard it but I thought that was still a blocker. To me, the 90's logo and scheme was the best Jets kit of all time (though the colors definitely need some tweaking)

Not sure if I am remembering this correctly or not, but I think the league took possession of things like colour schemes, logos, etc. Coyotes retained things like franchise records and history. Also, IIRC, the league later gave the copyrighted material to Jets 2.0.

Edit: I didn't use multi-quote. Honest. It just popped up this way. The 2 posts are related so I will just leave it like this.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I always am and always will be. 1996 still cuts deep for me.

The NHL was dead to me for 15 years. Did not watch a single game.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

In other research topics, if I have an independent variable (like xG) that is meant to directly predict a dependent variable (like G), but only explains about 40% of the variance even with large sample sizes, I would worry about measurement error in the independent variable. That doesn't mean it's not of any value for a broad set of inferences, it just means that I would want to improve the measurement of the independent variable. My first advice to an NHL team from a data perspective would be to ensure that there measurements are accurate and reliable enough. That's a good use of resources. Of course, they also need to employ good analysts and have a hockey staff that is open to discourse about analytics, but nothing undermines the use of research more quickly than bad data.

GIGO

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

That's fair. What I would like to see is these metrics fleshed out more, with more consideration to each data point and the variance of the inputs to further inform the stat. Then, I'd like to see a central NHL analytics department that would compile all of these more robust metrics to ensure some consistency.

Of course, the teams themselves could have their own stats team and even their own measures based on their philosophy - but the central stats could really help inform fans and media a bit better.

I consider high danger chances one of these extremely subjective and inaccurate measures. A defenseman with a very hard, accurate shot, shooting through a screen at the blueline is a more dangerous opportunity than, say, a weak wrister from in front of the net 2 feet away from a set goalie when the shooter is James Wright. Then, if you factor things in like how many players are screening, was the puck flat or bobbling when it was shot creating a dip or bounce - right now there's a lot of assumptions in these metrics.

I will say we have more usable data now than ever before, and I hope that it continues to improve.

I partially agree with you about the HDSC. There is so much more that goes into creating a high danger shot that the start position of the shot shouldn't be considered so highly. But - if all other factors are equal, there are spots that are going to be more dangerous.

That last game against Flames was a good example. In the first period, our shots were coming from well out on the perimeter. None went in. The shots the rest of the way were in closer and much more dangerous.

 

[Howard Chuck]

The NHL was dead to me for 15 years. Did not watch a single game.

Same.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

That's about as good of a guess as any.
To me it comes down to swapping Copp and Stastny.
Either way seems like a pretty good option.
I hate to take away Copp's opportunity but I can also see why Maurice would want to reunite him with Lowry. The way the two of them and Appleton are playing they may still be able to produce at a high level.

Not necessarily the best way to do it but I think PM is pretty likely to reunite Copp and Lowry.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

What's this fascination with rolling 4 lines equally? Icetime is a zero-sum game. If the 4th line is getting equal icetime, then it means your top-9 are getting less. Why would we want guys who put up 2+ points/60 to play less in favor of guys that put up 1.5 points/60. Playing Lowry on the 4th line and giving them "equal" time also means giving Trevor Lewis equal time.

I don't want to see equal time, but generally a little more for the 4th line and a little less for the top line. Just enough to avoid overworking a few players.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Agree. Talent isn't randomly distributed, so ice-time should be heaped onto the best players. Of course, that only works up to an optimal ceiling, and over-playing good players is unwise. I'm not sure what the best distribution is, and it probably depends on the endurance of different players.

Also on the talent of different players. Not all teams should distribute time the same way, depending on top talent and depth.