GDT: UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier

[SuperScript29]

Khabib’s bread and butter is his control. Specifically the way he uses his hips and legs to push down against his opponents. The way to beat Khabib would be to not let him get to this position. There’s nothing in Oliveira’s game that shows he can do this. He is an excellent offensive grappler and I can see him submitting Khabib in a no gi bjj match but at the end of the day wrestling translates a lot better to MMA and Khabib is by far the superior wrestler. The likely outcome is Khabib GnPing him to death. There’s always the chance Charles is able to throw something up but with Khabib’s experience I highly doubt it. Out of the current lightweights the one I’d give the best chance of beating Khabib is Arman Tsarukyan. We need to more out of him but he’s on a path to the belt right now

On the feet Charles is a better striker than Khabib, and on the ground it can be tricky due to his submission threats. Most of the other top grapplers in that division don't have that kind of offensive ground game with the exception of Dariush and Islam, which imo makes them very interesting matchups for Khabib as well. As far as Arman Tsarukyan goes, it's kind of early for him to know what kind of fighter he would be. Let me just put it this way, I would give Charles Oliveira a much higher chance to beating Khabib than Juliana beating Nunes.

 

[Jugitsu]

I love Poirier, he’s become a fan favourite by being nice. But the end result didn’t surprise. Poirier had his chances but Oliveira did what he does best and take over in the second round.

Pena talked about how Nunes hadn’t been in the gym at all until late September. I don’t know if true but sounds a lot like Nunes bought the indestructible narrative harder than the fans. I mean she gassed out so quickly and had no idea how to respond. Usually it’s about the instincts when you get in trouble but also preparation helps and it feels like Nunes had no back up plan in case things went south.

 

[chicagoskycam]

McGregor v. Poirier is the fight to make now. If Poirier can't get McGregor for whatever reason I think the smart move is to go to 170 and see if he can get a fight with Nate or Masvidal. Poirier has told Helwani before that he anticipates finishing his career at 170. The goal for him now (and honestly everyone) should be making the most money possible while taking the least damage. Him fighting Chandler has a high possibility of being another brawl like Poirier v. Hooker and I don't think Poirier needs more of those in his life.

170 takes away Poirier's power and I think he still has a chance in this division, I don't want to see Connor vs. Poirier again, Connor is the one that needs to go on the farewell tour as he has little chance at 155. I would prefer Connor vs. Masvidal or Nate. You can also do Connor vs. Chandler as both are on two loss streaks and probably prefer not to face grapplers.

 

[N o o d l e s]

FOTN: Cruz-Munhoz

POTN: Pena, Oliveira, O’Malley, Silva, Tuivasa, Kai Kara-France


8 bonuses

No Muniz is a disgrace

 

[Avs_19]

I guess it might depend on how quickly Poirier wants to return but a fight against Nate could make sense in the first quarter next year. He didn't seem to take a lot of damage to the head last night. There were some elbows on the ground but I think he was mostly feeling the body shots more than anything.

Poirier seemed really unsure of his next move and about possibly having to climb back up and mentioned the possibility of 170. He could fight Nate early in the year and then Conor in the summer when he returns. Both big names, big pay days, and I think he wins both fights rather convincingly. He'll probably get another title shot afterwards as well.

 

[MMC]

While Penas performance was certainly impressive did anyone else find the OH MY GOD by the commentary after literally every shot that landed to be incredibly annoying?

 

[pistolpete11]

I guess it might depend on how quickly Poirier wants to return but a fight against Nate could make sense in the first quarter next year. He didn't seem to take a lot of damage to the head last night. There were some elbows on the ground but I think he was mostly feeling the body shots more than anything.

Poirier seemed really unsure of his next move and about possibly having to climb back up and mentioned the possibility of 170. He could fight Nate early in the year and then Conor in the summer when he returns. Both big names, big pay days, and I think he wins both fights rather convincingly. He'll probably get another title shot afterwards as well.

Good call. I think for guys with broken legs like Conor, it's at least a year until they are back in the cage. So we're talking summer of 2022. Poirier might need some time to recover mentally more than physically, but Nate would be a big money fight and I don't want to say an easy fight, but it's one that he should be reasonably confident he would win. Seems like a fight Nate would interested in, too.

While Penas performance was certainly impressive did anyone else find the OH MY GOD by the commentary after literally every shot that landed to be incredibly annoying?

I didn't even notice it to be honest. It was just such a shock and complete chaos on what we were watching.

 

[pistolpete11]

Seems pretty clear Oliveira-Gaethje is next. Dana "I don't make fights on the night of fights" White didn't even push back on that assumption in the presser. This might be the first fight that I pick Oliveira. Gaethje is so similar to Poirier and Chandler, but worse on the ground. Oliveira's offensive wrestling is not Khabib level, so maybe Gaethje is able to keep it standing and eventually break Oliveira, but if that fight hits the ground, it's a wrap.

For Poirier, I think Avs point about Nate is a good one. Otherwise, if Conor actually wants the 4th fight, I'd say just wait until he's back. Don't risk getting that payday by fighting one of these other killers in LW and take some time to recharge the batteries physically and emotionally.

I think what Nunes does next will tell us a lot about where she is in her career. If she's not out there calling for a rematch immediately, she might be on her way out. She might still comeback for another fight or something, but her heart wouldn't be in it anymore. If she does want it right away, they've got to give it to her. Otherwise, it's pretty wide open. GDR's last fight was a finish over Pena. Holm has a couple wins and is a big name. Aldana and Viera are probably only a win away from getting a shot. It always creates some excitement when a long reigning champ loses or leaves.

Neal-Ponz was so blah I don't really care what they do next with either of them.

KKF is probably a fight away from a title shot still. Him vs. anyone of those guys in the top 5 would make sense. Cody is in a tough spot, man. No idea where he goes from here.

I said before the fight if O'Malley wins, they should do the Vera rematch. I still think that's the fight.

It was a good comeback fight for Emmett, but it also wasn't spectacular to the point you've got to put him on the title track. He deserves somebody ahead of him in the rankings, but there's also kind of a logjam at the top of the division. Ige, hate to say it, but I think he's destined for that top 10 gatekeeper category. He's good, he's tough as hell, but he just doesn't have anything that separates him.

Cruz called for Aldo. I think that makes sense. They've got to sort out Yan-Aljo and then probably TJ. Aldo-Cruz is a fun fight between 2 legends at similar points in their career. It's probably also smart for both those guys to avoid the young studs in that division like Sandhagen and Merab.

 

[Chaels Arms]

Nate's already angling for Poirier and/or Conor by attacking both of them on twitter. Dustin wins that fight no matter the weight class IMO.

Also remember Conor looks gigantic right now. He might not want to go back to 155 either especially if someone like Oliveira or Makhachev is holding the belt. Lots of big money fights at 170 and with Usman having bad knees and having beaten almost everyone in that division that could be a fun place for Poirier going forward especially if Usman retires soon. Poirier is still only 32.

 

[pistolpete11]

Nate's already angling for Poirier and/or Conor by attacking both of them on twitter. Dustin wins that fight no matter the weight class IMO.

Also remember Conor looks gigantic right now. He might not want to go back to 155 either especially if someone like Oliveira or Makhachev is holding the belt. Lots of big money fights at 170 and with Usman having bad knees and having beaten almost everyone in that division that could be a fun place for Poirier going forward especially if Usman retires soon. Poirier is still only 32.

I think Nate-Poirier looks a lot like Nate-Masvidal.

If Poirier takes a few big fights like Nate or Conor at 170, cool, but I think he's too small to be a serious contender at 170. He has power at 155, but it's not the touch of death power and it takes a hit going up a weight class. I think he gets ragdolled by most of the grapplers in the division. He's only 5'9" so he would be giving up the length advantage to guys like Edwards, Wonderboy, Luque.

If he's going to just float between 155 and 170 and take the biggest fights he can get at any given time, more power to him. But if he still wants to be a UFC champion, his best bet is still to remain relevant at the top of 155 IMO.

 

[WingsMJN2965]

Maybe I'm the only one who read it this way, but highlight of the night for me was Julianna telling everybody she wasn't surprised when you could read all over her face, when Amanda tapped and even when she stood up after, that even she couldn't believe she did it.

That said, I thought it was a super early tap for Amanda. Consequence of being that dominant, I guess. Once somebody finally gets you into uncharted territory you panic.

 

[member 51464]

I personally would probably favor Nate against Dustin at 170. If Dustin couldn't get the quick finish, I think Nate would cardio him to death.

 

[member 51464]

Maybe I'm the only one who read it this way, but highlight of the night for me was Julianna telling everybody she wasn't surprised when you could read all over her face, when Amanda tapped and even when she stood up after, that even she couldn't believe she did it.

That said, I thought it was a super early tap for Amanda. Consequence of being that dominant, I guess. Once somebody finally gets you into uncharted territory you panic.

I personally liked at the press conference after when Peña said she didn't want to take anything away from Amanda, but Peña actually gave birth to her child.

It was definitely weird to me how the whole fight week and during the show it was talked about as if birthing a child and adopting one is the same thing.

It definitely does not take away from the love Amanda has for her kid, but when it is presented as an accomplishment it seems to be from the perspective of overcoming the physical adversity to still win. Anyway, off my soapbox.

 

[Moncherry]

Real shame Khabib retired before fighting legit grapplers.

So Khabib hasn't fought any good grapplers either?

Apparently never fought any good strikers, any good wrestlers, now grapplers. Was he fighting nobodies off the street the whole time?

 

[16Skippy]

I'm happy for Pena but does anyone else feel like Nunes lost more than Pena won? Like Nunes didn't adapt at all when Pena jabbed her 29 times in a row, and was either too rocked to gassed to even try to fight the choke.

 

[pistolpete11]

I personally would probably favor Nate against Dustin at 170. If Dustin couldn't get the quick finish, I think Nate would cardio him to death.

I agree Nate has better cardio, but I disagree it's enough to pull out a win.

I'd say Poirier has good, not great, cardio, but he knows how to manage it as evidenced by the Max, Hooker, and Gaethje fights. I think he would put it on Nate for 3-4 rounds and then Nate might start to turn the tide, or at least Poirier would slow down, but Nate doesn't have the power to put away Poirier even if that happens. So ultimately it would end in a clear win for Poirier, and Nate would be able to say "If there was another round, I had him." which somehow translates to a win in the Diaz world.

 

[pistolpete11]

I'm happy for Pena but does anyone else feel like Nunes lost more than Pena won? Like Nunes didn't adapt at all when Pena jabbed her 29 times in a row, and was either too rocked to gassed to even try to fight the choke.

This is the reason to do a rematch. If Pena is just better at this point in their careers, she'll do it again. If Nunes wasn't taking her seriously, wasn't training hard enough, panicked, etc. then she has a chance to correct it.

 

[m9]

I'm happy for Pena but does anyone else feel like Nunes lost more than Pena won? Like Nunes didn't adapt at all when Pena jabbed her 29 times in a row, and was either too rocked to gassed to even try to fight the choke.

For sure. Nunes basically went all-in and then when that didn't work gassed out and gave up.

Completely embarrassing performance by Nunes. You're supposed to be the best female of all-time and you come in totally unprepared to go more than 5 minutes.

 

[Jugitsu]

The fact that Nate and Jorge are even in the whispers at the moment is a testament how UFC is less and less about athletic success and more about hype and quick cash grab. Neither Nate or Jorge don’t deserve to even look at Poirier’s direction. Same goes for Conor. And to even hint that any of these bums should be in the mix when talking about the next title fight is mind-boggling. Nate especially I don’t understand. The dude is a jorneyman at this point and not even that entertaining to watch with his pillow fists. He just basically touches people with his knuckles and gets his face bloodied. But I’m not holding my breath. This is after all the same organisation that thought it was a good idea to bring back Nick Diaz.

 

[chicagoskycam]

This is the reason to do a rematch. If Pena is just better at this point in their careers, she'll do it again. If Nunes wasn't taking her seriously, wasn't training hard enough, panicked, etc. then she has a chance to correct it.

Sometimes it's just not your night. I don't think at all Pena is better than Nunes overall but she was on Saturday. I was casually paying attention to intros but I thought they were talking up Valentina/Nunes 3 as Amanda was walking to the cage.

 

[chicagoskycam]

The fact that Nate and Jorge are even in the whispers at the moment is a testament how UFC is less and less about athletic success and more about hype and quick cash grab. Neither Nate or Jorge don’t deserve to even look at Poirier’s direction. Same goes for Conor. And to even hint that any of these bums should be in the mix when talking about the next title fight is mind-boggling. Nate especially I don’t understand. The dude is a jorneyman at this point and not even that entertaining to watch with his pillow fists. He just basically touches people with his knuckles and gets his face bloodied. But I’m not holding my breath. This is after all the same organisation that thought it was a good idea to bring back Nick Diaz.

I don't see anyone here talking about these guys in a title fight. Jorge backed out of this event and had a fight set on this card 170. Connor has two straight losses to Dustin at 155. My guess is Dustin get Chandler next. Nate is not getting a title shot anywhere but can still put on a good performance.

 

[m9]

Sometimes it's just not your night. I don't think at all Pena is better than Nunes overall but she was on Saturday. I was casually paying attention to intros but I thought they were talking up Valentina/Nunes 3 as Amanda was walking to the cage.

Sometimes it's not your night because you come completely unprepared though. Nunes turning the fight into a brawl and then having no cardio reeks of someone who hasn't done proper preparations and just thought it was going to be a quick night. It reminds me so much of when GSP lost to Serra - GSP came in not taking the fight seriously and you saw the result.

That said, I'm sure there are lots of fights where fighters are so good they don't take anything seriously and it still works out fine because they are so good.

 

[AceKing21]

Great job by Pena by taking the fight to Nunes. I do feel Amanda was unprepared and it certainly didnt look like she had any plan B once she started getting tagged over and over. I caught Pena at +705 on website and threw $12 on her just because how confident she was during all the pressers.

As far as Porier-Olivera. Once again Charles escapes a near 1st round stoppage to come back and win in the 2nd. I have to give respect to Charles as he somehow is able to whether the storm and show his resiliency as all great fighters do in crunch time. I feel bad for Dustin, but I think he will come back and possibly fight Chandler, thus giving us Olivera-Gaethje in spring 22.

 

[chicagoskycam]

Sometimes it's not your night because you come completely unprepared though. Nunes turning the fight into a brawl and then having no cardio reeks of someone who hasn't done proper preparations and just thought it was going to be a quick night. It reminds me so much of when GSP lost to Serra - GSP came in not taking the fight seriously and you saw the result.

That said, I'm sure there are lots of fights where fighters are so good they don't take anything seriously and it still works out fine because they are so good.

I can't speak to her training this fight but we have seen this cardio issue in the past. Amanda typically finishes her opponents fairly early and was completely gassed in the 2nd during this fight. Part of me feels she might want some time off.

 

[Egg]

Amanda typically finishes her opponents fairly early and was completely gassed in the 2nd during this fight. Part of me feels she might want some time off.

Pena posed a real threat to Amanda, in terms of her superior ground game.

With the striking, Amanda is the not even close. Pena fought smart.

People underestimating Pena, is crazy.

She's the real deal.