Value of: (UFA) Jake Guentzel - Where does he sign?

[molon labe]

Jake Guentzel, 29 y/o (Oct. 6)

(As of January 5, 2023)
490 GP | 215 G (.44 GPG) | 242 A | + 55

Playoffs: 58 GP, 58P (34 G)
--------------------------------------------​

Seems as if Dubas wants to see how the year goes; so it's likely Jake gets super close to July 1. Which teams will be knocking or passing some hints along backdoor channels here? Two that come to mind immediately are Vancouver and Chicago. Both have young C's in need of an elite winger - and both are going to have big purses this Summer.

What are the speculative offers going to be? Some analysts hint at 7+, but I feel that's asinine and it'll take 8.5 minimum internally (going the full 8 years) and 9M+ externally (7 years) to get it done with the interest he will receive. Starting this Guentzel thread mostly because the other is more about his value as a rental this year.

Click to read more...

 

[Adele Dazeem]

Colorado probably.

 

[roon]

Come on home Jakey.

 

[TkachukNorris79]

Man IDK if he'd have any interest playing in Canada or with Brady and the lads with where they're at right now but I'd throw multiple 1sts and 8x$8.5M at Guentzel in a heartbeat.

 

[Big Daddy Cane]

Chicago was the first that came to mind. Significant cap space. New Jersey, albeit a few years further along, was able to convince Hamilton to take a (short term) downgrade in team competitiveness Summer 2021.

I also wonder about Seattle. There’s a ceiling with that group because of offensive skill. There’s a good opportunity to reset with a number of expiring contracts, including Eberle.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

He likely stays in Pittsburgh. Dubas doesn’t let go of top line talent

 

[wintersej]

He likely stays in Pittsburgh. Dubas doesn’t let go of top line talent

8x11 deal incoming

 

[Zynbanejad]

Come on home Jakey.

Nebraska?

 

[Arthur Morgan]

Dubas can and will sign him

 

[Zirakzigil]

Unless he wants to leave, hes staying with the Penguins. He is Sids guy and Sid has a massive amount of say on team players.

 

[roon]

Nebraska?

Born in Nebraska - Raised in Minnesota my man. Gotta do more than just glance at where he was born on Wikipedia.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

I'd love to see him in a Wings jersey for a few years.

 

[DrDangles]

Pittsburgh for 8x8

 

[Ignatius]

Pittsburgh for 8x8

I'm not necessarily saying that he's not worth that but he should really take a HomeTown discount because who knows how he would actually produce without Sid and most of those years are probably going to be without #87

 

[SEALBound]

I'm not necessarily saying that he's not worth that but he should really take a HomeTown discount because who knows how he would actually produce without Sid and most of those years are probably going to be without #87

I would suggest 8x8 is already a pretty good hometown discount.

He's produced well without Sid.

 

[DrDangles]

I'm not necessarily saying that he's not worth that but he should really take a HomeTown discount because who knows how he would actually produce without Sid and most of those years are probably going to be without #87

8x8 isn't really much of a hometown discount though. It's a million more total than a 7x9 contract and either way it will be his last big one before retiring. Do you really think he'd get more than 9M AAV in UFA?

He maintained a PPG pace with E-Rod as his center for like 20 games. He's at worst a 30 goal 70 point winger regardless of who his center is IMO.

 

[molon labe]

Unless he wants to leave, hes staying with the Penguins. He is Sids guy and Sid has a massive amount of say on team players.

I'm not saying the Pens are letting him go (requiring Sid to have a say on it) - but it's not up to them at this point. Guentzel holds the cards and this next deal is very, very likely his last deal.

I would suggest 8x8 is already a pretty good hometown discount.

He's produced well without Sid.

Yeah 8 x 8 is leaving money on the table. 64M in that deal taking him to 37 years old wherein at least 5 other teams are going to offer 9.5 x 7. That leaves him at 36 and a potential for another 1-2 year deal.

So 8M from the Pens probably means Jake is leaving at least possibly up to 10M on the table.

8x8 isn't really much of a hometown discount though. It's a million more total than a 7x9 contract and either way it will be his last big one before retiring. Do you really think he'd get more than 9M AAV in UFA?

He maintained a PPG pace with E-Rod as his center for like 20 games. He's at worst a 30 goal 70 point winger regardless of who his center is IMO.

Jake has been about as sure-money as they get and absolutely has a least 5 teams that will show interest with up to 10M to spend on a winger. I could easily see 9.5 x 7 being the deal for Jake -> offered by at least a handful of clubs.

 

[Zirakzigil]

I'm not saying the Pens are letting him go (requiring Sid to have a say on it) - but it's not up to them at this point. Guentzel holds the cards and this next deal is very, very likely his last deal.



Yeah 8 x 8 is leaving money on the table. 64M in that deal taking him to 37 years old wherein at least 5 other teams are going to offer 9.5 x 7. That leaves him at 36 and a potential for another 1-2 year deal.

So 8M from the Pens probably means Jake is leaving at least possibly up to 10M on the table.



Jake has been about as sure-money as they get and absolutely has a least 5 teams that will show interest with up to 10M to spend on a winger. I could easily see 9.5 x 7 being the deal for Jake -> offered by at least a handful of clubs.

I know, but that conversation with Dubas has happened by this point. Hes told the team if he wants to stay or not. And if he wants to stay, hes not going anywhere. This team will scorch earth when Sid and Co are done. Until then they will keep riding that train.

 

[molon labe]

I know, but that conversation with Dubas has happened by this point. Hes told the team if he wants to stay or not. And if he wants to stay, hes not going anywhere. This team will scorch earth when Sid and Co are done. Until then they will keep riding that train.

Right. So he says he wants to stay.

What does that mean now versus in the Summer? There is just so much at play that it can't be taken with more than a grain of salt. We make the playoffs, we miss the playoffs... his agent tells him about these other teams with huge interest and $$$.

I guess I have a mutual feeling that he wants to be here but I just don't believe it's going to be to the extent of leaving 10+ million dollars on the table to do it. So either the Pens pony up big or he's gone. He's outperformed each deal he's been on so why wouldn't he cash in?

 

[Zirakzigil]

Right. So he says he wants to stay.

What does that mean now versus in the Summer? There is just so much at play that it can't be taken with more than a grain of salt. We make the playoffs, we miss the playoffs... his agent tells him about these other teams with huge interest and $$$.

I guess I have a mutual feeling that he wants to be here but I just don't believe it's going to be to the extent of leaving 10+ million dollars on the table to do it. So either the Pens pony up big or he's gone. He's outperformed each deal he's been on so why wouldn't he cash in?

It will more than likely take 8 years to keep him. I am guessing somewhere in the 8.5-9mil range. If he is happy, taking slightly less money wont matter. No playoff team is going to be offering him in the 10mil range. And I dont see him having the appeal to go to a rebuilding team just for more money.

 

[molon labe]

It will more than likely take 8 years to keep him. I am guessing somewhere in the 8.5-9mil range. If he is happy, taking slightly less money wont matter. No playoff team is going to be offering him in the 10mil range. And I dont see him having the appeal to go to a rebuilding team just for more money.

Right it'll be the tweeners or up and ups. I mentioned Chicago and Vancouver in the first post but clearly there are likely a dozen teams interested. I'm talking about 10 mil on the table based on coming up for another contract at 36 versus 37 - and to speculate on what someone with hands gets in 2031/2032 compared to today (Carter at 3M? Jake in the future at 5-6M?)

I think the offers of what we give over 8 versus another club over 7 will come out close. It's whether he wants to play here versus elsewhere and shaving that extra year off the end. I don't see any team 'rebuilding' that'll gun for him - but if you lump Chicago in there then absolutely I could see it. His first 2 seasons there will be flush number wise but it'll be seasons 3+ that they're in the hunt.

 

[mrinsane]

Chicago

 

[Habs10025]

Guentzel 6 years 50,000,000 remains in Pittsburgh

 

[Nona Di Giuseppe]

I'm not saying the Pens are letting him go (requiring Sid to have a say on it) - but it's not up to them at this point. Guentzel holds the cards and this next deal is very, very likely his last deal.



Yeah 8 x 8 is leaving money on the table. 64M in that deal taking him to 37 years old wherein at least 5 other teams are going to offer 9.5 x 7. That leaves him at 36 and a potential for another 1-2 year deal.

So 8M from the Pens probably means Jake is leaving at least possibly up to 10M on the table.



Jake has been about as sure-money as they get and absolutely has a least 5 teams that will show interest with up to 10M to spend on a winger. I could easily see 9.5 x 7 being the deal for Jake -> offered by at least a handful of clubs.

This is a good break down of the situation.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I think re-signing in Pittsburgh at like 6 years at $8.5 million is the most likely outcome