GWT: UCL Final: Liverpool vs Real Madrid - 28 May

[les Habs]

Liverpool should win, but Madrid seem to think they’re a great side and you can’t count them out.

 

[Savant]

Liverpool should win, but Madrid seem to think they’re a great side and you can’t count them out.

I think this actually might be underselling Madrid a bit. They have taken some scalps in the KO stage. They ran away with La Liga and they have the BDO favorite. Plus they have great UCL pedigree. I think this is on a razors edge. I’ve said LFC and Man City were the best two teams in the world all season but Real Madrid is probably #3. LFC should be favorites in this game but not by much. It’s an outstanding matchup.

 

[les Habs]

I think this actually might be underselling Madrid a bit. They have taken some scalps in the KO stage. They ran away with La Liga and they have the BDO favorite. Plus they have great UCL pedigree. I think this is on a razors edge. I’ve said LFC and Man City were the best two teams in the world all season but Real Madrid is probably #3. LFC should be favorites in this game but not by much. It’s an outstanding matchup.

I didn’t say they’re bad, but as others here have noted they’re essentially punching above their weight. City also aren’t that great. People can comment on how they’re gonna spend a ton of money because they need more depth, but you could easily improve that side. For all the money they’ve spent there are some players who really aren’t that great.

 

[JeffreyLFC]

Going with Real Madrid for the win. No offense to Liverpool but I don't want another trophy going to a top 6 rival....

Brighton is now top 6.

 

[Savant]

I didn’t say they’re bad, but as others here have noted they’re essentially punching above their weight. City also aren’t that great. People can comment on how they’re gonna spend a ton of money because they need more depth, but you could easily improve that side. For all the money they’ve spent there are some players who really aren’t that great.

City didn’t go out because they didn’t have depth. City not having depth is a myth. City went out because they have no idea what to do when they get punched in the mouth. But of course, 80% of their domestic league doesn’t try to hit them.

City have plenty of depth and plenty of talent. If they aren’t getting good return on investment they need to look in the mirror. Haaland is probably coming anyway too. I don’t think Haaland is a sure thing in England either but City will continue to spent high eight figure/low nine figure transfer deals because they can, and it works great against the Watfords and the Burnleys. Meanwhile their UCL results are no where near good enough to that standard and you can’t complain (not specifically you obviously) about depth when you have over 200m of talent on your bench. Period.

 

[les Habs]

City didn’t go out because they didn’t have depth. City not having depth is a myth. City went out because they have no idea what to do when they get punched in the mouth. But of course, 80% of their domestic league doesn’t try to hit them.

City have plenty of depth and plenty of talent. If they aren’t getting good return on investment they need to look in the mirror. Haaland is probably coming anyway too.

I didn’t say they went out because they lacked depth. I said they weren’t that great and they aren’t. They are where they are thanks to Guardiola.

 

[Savant]

I didn’t say they went out because they lacked depth. I said they weren’t that great and they aren’t. They are where they are thanks to Guardiola.

I clarified this a bit in edits but I don’t think we are too far off here. City certainly are great domestically though. If they are not great, especially in the context of this season who is besides Liverpool? Anyone?

 

[Live in the Now]

I hate when people full the false humility card so I'm going to come right out with it, we should beat them barring something happening in the last five other matches. We've been in three cup finals for a reason and will be taking the league down to the last weekend for a reason. Our big problems are against a team like Atletico but they were easily dispatched in the group stage. The fact is also that City should have finished RM and City doesn't have the finishers we have, so they didn't. But they had a million chances to do so.

 

[les Habs]

I clarified this a bit in edits but I don’t think we are too far off here. City certainly are great domestically though. If they are not great, especially in the context of this season who is besides Liverpool? Anyone?

Right, but they wouldn’t be that good domestically if it wasn’t for Guardiola. They have a few fantastic players, but apart from a few positions they do indeed lack depth and they could easily improve that squad. Not only do Liverpool have better players, but they have better depth. Madrid even match up with them well and I would see a best XI between the two pretty evenly split.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Real’s luck runs out. Liverpool the better and more consistent team.

 

[PeteWorrell]

Liverpool are the better team but Real Madrid believes that the European cup is their competition so they don't give up until the end. Should be a good final in Paris.

 

[Power Man]

LMAO

 

[Evilo]

I hate when people full the false humility card so I'm going to come right out with it, we should beat them barring something happening in the last five other matches. We've been in three cup finals for a reason and will be taking the league down to the last weekend for a reason. Our big problems are against a team like Atletico but they were easily dispatched in the group stage. The fact is also that City should have finished RM and City doesn't have the finishers we have, so they didn't. But they had a million chances to do so.

PSG, Chelsea and City were the better teams for most of the 180+ minutes. Real was at times completely played off the pitch.

 

[Live in the Now]

PSG, Chelsea and City were the better teams for most of the 180+ minutes. Real was at times completely played off the pitch.

The main thing that stopped those three teams from winning was....finishing. And this isn't meant as a slight to those three teams but Liverpool has scored more than all of those teams this season. The key is to finish them before Carlo has a chance to make any substitutions, first half, no messing around. Get chances quick and slam them into the goal.

I don't think he's all of a sudden going to start Camavinga and Valverde in midfield, so the chances are there to be taken. And if we don't take them we'll lose, pretty straight forward.

Also of note is that Carlo got two of those first legs completely wrong. He won't get a second leg to get it right. The PSG and City first legs they lost, and if those were the only game they played they'd be out. I'd rather play them than City though for an assortment of reasons, namely that Pep hasn't beaten Klopp all season and this would be his fourth chance. I feel like he's bound to get one right but we've avoided that.

Gonna be hard to wait a month for this but at least we have a bunch of important games in the meantime.

 

[Corto]

I'll go with Madrid.
It's easy to say Madrid were on the brink in every round - they were, but they also didn't play Inter, Benfica and Villareal.
They played PSG, Chelsea and City. There was no harder route to get to the final.
Unless UEFA can squeeze in an extra round and have them play Bayern as well.

It's hilarious they're in the final and they're still in need of a face lift and are at the tail end of this post-Ronaldo transition phase.
If they do get Rüdi, Mbappe and Tchouameni, they'll be back to being where they were in 2017 IMO.
Camavinga will be one year older (he's ONLY 19!), and if they can get a quality backup RB/LB, they'll be set again.

I think the pressure is on Liverpool really. Next season, Madrid could be significantly stronger. Even City with Haaland. Liverpool will still be tier 1, but the opposition could be a lot stronger.

 

[Savant]

Right, but they wouldn’t be that good domestically if it wasn’t for Guardiola. They have a few fantastic players, but apart from a few positions they do indeed lack depth and they could easily improve that squad. Not only do Liverpool have better players, but they have better depth. Madrid even match up with them well and I would see a best XI between the two pretty evenly split.

I mean in that case If LFC have better players/depth it’s because of Klopp and their infrastructure

Best XI would be very interesting selection. I think LFC probably have 7 of those spots in the bag. Which is nothing against Madrid either.

 

[Corto]

I mean in that case If LFC have better players/depth it’s because of Klopp and their infrastructure

Best XI would be very interesting selection. I think LFC probably have 7 of those spots in the bag. Which is nothing against Madrid either.

I don't think it's that simple. Or makes any sense as they have two completely different styles of play.

Curtois > Allison

TAA or Carvajal (peak Carvajal takes it easily, but we're dealing with 80% Carvajal here)
VVD easy choice
Matip/Konate/Alaba/Militao for 2nd CB... Dunno really... I think highest peak is Militao, he was AMAZING in the first half of the season, but also the most inconsistent when not on full form (like now)
Robertson or Mendy? I think Mendy's a world class LB and both are special players. Can't blame anyone picking either of them.

Modric/Casemiro/Kroos/Valverde
Henderson/Fabinho/Thiago

One of Casemiro / Fabinho, Modric the only shoe-in and... Dunno.
Madrid's midfield wants to control the flow of the game, play it out from the back, break through press and catapult people down the flanks.
Liverpool wants to hunt you down, win the ball in the opposition half and then make the quick pass to the front 3 who then face a disorganized defense.

Front 3?
Benzema, Salah and Mane probably. But who'd go against Vini at the moment? Diaz, Jota, even Rodrygo now are all capable of winning you games.


My point is, if you're RM, you probably take VVD and one of Salah/Mane.
You don't wanna change too much, Madrid's players fit their system - they're in the CL final and won the La Liga, with some of their core players well in their 30s, they're doing something right.
If you're Liverpool, you probably take Curtoius, Modric for Thiago and Benzema to play with Salah and Mane.
You don't wanna change too much, Liverpool's still hunting a quadruple, they're doing something right.

 

[Chimaera]

I think Liverpool's players fit more of what Liverpool want to do. I don't think a lot of Real's players would do so. They have some quality players, no doubt, but a lot of them are not the type to play how Liverpool want.



I also have no qualms saying that a Liverpool loss would be a disappointment. I think they've been the consistently better team over the course of the season, and their peak is higher. They have had a lucky run of opponents (though ask Bayern and Juve how easy their last opponent was), but they can only play who is in front of them.

But either team has the quality to win. There are too many world class players in that Madrid side to think any other way. It would be disrespectful. That said, I think there are things Liverpool can do that Real are going to have a harder time with. I also think Liverpool really do feel slighted by the last two times they've faced Real, and this club, this manager, and this squad will be doing their best to rectify that blemish.

 

[Scandale du Jour]

They said we were not among the favorites and would need a good draw to advance.

After some shenanigans, we drew PSG and people said we would lose... we beat them. Oh, they sure dominated, but they collapsed in crunch time after one crucial mistake (referee + keeper) and we kept our composure and took advantage of the situation. We are Real Madrid.

People called Chelsea a real contender and said they were favored against us. We went to their house and beat them. They did manage a great come back and we then pushed them down again. We are Real Madrid.

People said we were now playing one of the REAL contenders and were going to lose this time. City played us off the pitch for most of the first leg, but we did not give up and got crucial goals to stay in the tie. Yesterday? We had the better chances for most of the match and could not convert. City did convert on one of their chances late in the game and it seemed like the clock finally struck Midnight... and then Rodrygo scored 2 goals and Benzema created and converted a penalty in extra time. We are not Cinderella, we are Real Madrid.

Now, everybody is calling Liverpool favorites... as they should. On paper, they are the better side and, well, let's be honest, they are also having a better season overall. They are a better team and, just like 2 of our 3 other opponents, should beat us (Chelsea was never a better squad than us, IMO). Will they? Perhaps, I would not be surprised. I would not be surprised if we won either because... we are Real Madrid.

You can talk about luck and lack of finishing. You can talk about bad referee decisions. You can talk about f***ing Pep Guardiola or whatever else you like. At the end of the day, it might not matter... because we are Real Madrid.

That's corny as f***, I will admit it, but that's the mentality of the team right now. They think they are never out of it. They believe in themselves and they rally behind the Real Madrid aura. Heck, as pointed out by @Power Man, the supporters at the Bernabeu have the same mentality. At the end of the day, it can only overcome so much and maybe we have overcame too much already. But, this is a battle tested group whose core won 4 CLs together. We have incorporated some youth that is pushing us up (Camavinga, Vini, Rodrygo and Valverde). I believe we can and will win despite being rightfully called the underdogs.

The game is not at the Bernabeu so some of the magic won't be there. Liverpool are better and should win. Heck, they even have their own little narrative (revenge). It will be a tough one and I do not expect to be happy at 5PM on May 28th... but I believe I can be because... yes... We ARE REAL MADRID

 

[Savant]

I don't think it's that simple. Or makes any sense as they have two completely different styles of play.

Curtois > Allison

TAA or Carvajal (peak Carvajal takes it easily, but we're dealing with 80% Carvajal here)
VVD easy choice
Matip/Konate/Alaba/Militao for 2nd CB... Dunno really... I think highest peak is Militao, he was AMAZING in the first half of the season, but also the most inconsistent when not on full form (like now)
Robertson or Mendy? I think Mendy's a world class LB and both are special players. Can't blame anyone picking either of them.

Modric/Casemiro/Kroos/Valverde
Henderson/Fabinho/Thiago

One of Casemiro / Fabinho, Modric the only shoe-in and... Dunno.
Madrid's midfield wants to control the flow of the game, play it out from the back, break through press and catapult people down the flanks.
Liverpool wants to hunt you down, win the ball in the opposition half and then make the quick pass to the front 3 who then face a disorganized defense.

Front 3?
Benzema, Salah and Mane probably. But who'd go against Vini at the moment? Diaz, Jota, even Rodrygo now are all capable of winning you games.


My point is, if you're RM, you probably take VVD and one of Salah/Mane.
You don't wanna change too much, Madrid's players fit their system - they're in the CL final and won the La Liga, with some of their core players well in their 30s, they're doing something right.
If you're Liverpool, you probably take Curtoius, Modric for Thiago and Benzema to play with Salah and Mane.
You don't wanna change too much, Liverpool's still hunting a quadruple, they're doing something right.

The only hill that I would die on to disagree with you here is that Alisson is 100% better than Courtois.

 

[Scandale du Jour]

The only hill that I would die on to disagree with you here is that Alisson is 100% better than Courtois.

Would you argue that Alisson is the best keeper in the World? Because I think Courtois has played at that level this year.

I mean, I do not watch Alisson enough to compare the two, so I am not going to put a fight. It is just that Courtois has been REALLY awesome this year.

 

[luiginb]

I hate when people full the false humility card so I'm going to come right out with it, we should beat them barring something happening in the last five other matches. We've been in three cup finals for a reason and will be taking the league down to the last weekend for a reason. Our big problems are against a team like Atletico but they were easily dispatched in the group stage. The fact is also that City should have finished RM and City doesn't have the finishers we have, so they didn't. But they had a million chances to do so.

Corto's a huge homer but I think you're underrating Real here a bit. If I were a Liverpool supporter the thought of Vini going against Trent would give me nightmares.

 

[Savant]

Would you argue that Alisson is the best keeper in the World? Because I think Courtois has played at that level this year.

I mean, I do not watch Alisson enough to compare the two, so I am not going to put a fight. It is just that Courtois has been REALLY awesome this year.

Yes. This year, Alisson to me has been best keeper in the world. Now obviously I watch PL the most, (and he is certainly the best keeper in that league), but he is been at an incredible level this season. A lot of the fancy stats back this up too. For example he is the best keeper in PL at 1 on 1s and for a team like LFC that plays a high line/aggressive offsides trap, that is extremely important. Alisson has definitely been a major point winner.

Alisson, Trent, Virgil, Thiago, Salah and Mane are the no doubters for me (for Liverpool).

Benzema and Modric no doubters for Madrid,

And as you said (going alphabetical) - Diaz, Diogo, Vini is a hell of a “backup” front three.

Casemiro/Fabinho hard to pick one. I think Fabinho does a little more and doesn’t necessarily have Casemiro’s plot armor but we have seen this play out with the Brazil national team.

Robertson vs Mendy again goes down to preference. Robertson has that best LB pedigree and been in ridiculous form in 2022 but Mendy is also at a high level.

Virgil’s CB partner? Honestly just might depend on the game. Situationally you might just pick a different guy there. Maybe you go Militao? Because he is the only nailed on starter, but I don’t have a problem with that.

So to me it’s probably

Alisson
Trent Militao Virgil Robertson
Modric Fabinho Thiago
Salah Benzema Mane

But there are definitely coin flips there. And that’s how I got to “at least 7” which is not an insult to Madrid at all, but both of these teams are very high level.

 

[Savant]

Corto's a huge homer but I think you're underrating Real here a bit. If I were a Liverpool supporter the thought of Vini going against Trent would give me nightmares.

No nightmares. Honestly I don’t think it could be any worse than last year, but last year the center backs were Kabak and Phillips too.

We have seen Trent sacrifice some offense to help defend in certain games and maybe we see this as well. But also maybe not Madrid need to be just as concerned about Trent’s offense.

 

[JeffreyLFC]

People currently praise Vinicius rightfully so, he has been amazing against Man City but Liverpool also have a special player in Diaz. I think Real Madrid have the best finisher in the world at this moment with Benzema but LFC have a better front 3. IMO, the first 30 min will dictate the rest of the game. If Real Madrid manage to score early and play on the counter they will be very dangerous. If Liverpool score early then it will force Real Madrid to push up more and Liverpool counter pressing will provide space for Diaz, Mane and Salah to exploit (not unlike City). It is a very tricky fixture. IMO they are very near in term of quality. I really like our depth for the first time ever, I would be okay if the game goes to extra time.

Based on all that, I expect a boring 0-0 draw with penalties