Prospect Info: Tyler Kleven (D) at 44th Overall (Sens traded up)

[Micklebot]

This may be true, but from watching him, I think you can draw a direct line from his lack of puck skill to his lack of production. Historically, defenders that produce like Tyler Kleven are not likely to be NHL regulars. Here is a chart looking at all drafted CHL defenders from the 1999 draft to 2008 draft.

As you can see, there is a big cluster at the bottom left of the graph. This cluster breaks at about the 0.55 PPG mark. The author of this graph suggests that a player that plays 40% of all available games is an NHL regular.

In the same window, these are the defenders that scored under 0.5 PPG but played over 40% of available games.

View attachment 377882

It's interesting as there are multiple quotes from people that watch him a lot that say his offensive skills and hands are not getting enough credit, one recently Schlossman, and another a while back being Appert.

There is a ton of context missing looking only at pts per game vs nhl gp%, lots of lower pt producing chl d are likely late rounders, i imagine theres a chance a disproportionate number of those in the bottom left disapear when limiting the sample to top 60 picks, for example. I mention draft position as it can be used as a proxy for that missing context: was the guy a defensive stud, was he buried on a deep team, was his role defined in a way not conducive to offence ect.

I'm not saying Kleven is a sure fire nhl player, no 2nd rounder is, offensive juggernaught or not, but i do think when we try to bucket players together we can get misleading or incomplete results.

 

[ijif]

Curious to see what Zdeno Chara's graphs looked like at that age, though I don't know if the data exists. Sens were convinced enough to move up the draft to pick him (before Montreal supposedly did) upon considering the talent still available at the draft. I think they see him as a long term project who has at least a bottom 6 level floor (which is what some posters have concluded he will be at best, hence the draft price makes them unhappy with the pick).

In terms of ceiling, a Methot type level as a shutdown defenceman is attainable through development. As a long-term project, they will show him enough patience to grow into more than that.

It is hard to pin down Chara because he played in multiple leagues, for multiple teams, and for short samples. In his DY+1, he played in the WHL, and he had 22 points in 49 games. That is just under 0.5 PPG. In his DY+2, he was in the AHL and NHL. Looking at low scoring defender, most of them went on to show offensive skill in junior at some point after the draft. This makes me wonder if Kleven should be playing in the USHL this year.

 

[ijif]

It's interesting as there are multiple quotes from people that watch him a lot that say his offensive skills and hands are not getting enough credit, one recently Schlossman, and another a while back being Appert.

There is a ton of context missing looking only at pts per game vs nhl gp%, lots of lower pt producing chl d are likely late rounders, i imagine theres a chance a disproportionate number of those in the bottom left disapear when limiting the sample to top 60 picks, for example. I mention draft position as it can be used as a proxy for that missing context: was the guy a defensive stud, was he buried on a deep team, was his role defined in a way not conducive to offence ect.

I'm not saying Kleven is a sure fire nhl player, no 2nd rounder is, offensive juggernaught or not, but i do think when we try to bucket players together we can get misleading or incomplete results.

I have admitted in numerous posts that adding a draft position to any sort of model will increase predictive value. Of course, given two equal players, the one drafted higher is likely to be the better player, but that also brings up the fact that Kleven will be given more opportunity to succeed simply because he is a high pick. That can skew the results to look better for higher picks.

In the end, no two players are the same. Every stat will have some sort of misleading numbers or incomplete results or context. If we had perfect information, we would not need stats. With that being said, defenders that score like Tyler Kleven are unlikely to make the NHL or be good players in the NHL. That does not mean he cannot be a good player. It does not mean he needs to score points at the NHL level for me to consider him good. It means we likely should not have traded two picks for this player.

 

[Micklebot]

Also interesting that Kleven produced much more playing in the dev program exhibition games (Biosteel, international, college) than in the USHL games. Still not an offensive dynamo, but more offense against arguably stiffer competition

 

[Micklebot]

I have admitted in numerous posts that adding a draft position to any sort of model will increase predictive value. Of course, given two equal players, the one drafted higher is likely to be the better player, but that also brings up the fact that Kleven will be given more opportunity to succeed simply because he is a high pick. That can skew the results to look better for higher picks.

In the end, no two players are the same. Every stat will have some sort of misleading numbers or incomplete results or context. If we had perfect information, we would not need stats. With that being said, defenders that score like Tyler Kleven are unlikely to make the NHL or be good players in the NHL. That does not mean he cannot be a good player. It does not mean he needs to score points at the NHL level for me to consider him good. It means we likely should not have traded two picks for this player.

If we are sampling the same group for players with less and more production, both will get the added opportunity. Not sure you can argue the low scoring group will disproportionately benefit from extra opportunities relative to high scoring guys from the same sample.

 

[ijif]

If we are sampling the same group for players with less and more production, both will get the added opportunity. Not sure you can argue the low scoring group will disproportionately benefit from extra opportunities relative to high scoring guys from the same sample.

Yeah, that is right, but I was hinting a more extended point with that comment, but I am not going to get into that.

I have posted the data I want to. Posters here can take it or leave it.

 

[aragorn]

There are plenty of examples of shutdown D-men who went on to have good NHL careers without putting up a lot of offensive pts, Boro played 6 full seasons in Ottawa without scoring very much, same for Volchenkov & Luke Schenn just won a SC. No NHL team has just offensive defencemen who can put up offensive pts, some of them prevent pts from being scored against & play on the PK. While most will see those two examples as laughable, let's not forget that they have played in the NHL for several yrs earning big money while we sit at home watching on TV, they are still NHL players regardless of what people think & say about them who made it.

Ottawa won't need Kleven to put up pts, they will need him to make big hits, block shots, clear the front of the net, play on the PK, intimidate forwards & drop the gloves when required. They should have enough PMD to put up pts & we shouldn't be expecting this guy to do it, IMO he could be more like Gudbranson, hopefully better. Sometimes having a couple of players who are good defensively is important to stop other team's good players from scoring against & that becomes very valuable especially in the playoffs. IMO giving up a couple of picks to acquire a very good defensive defenceman who has plenty of upside is worth the gamble. I would bet the Leafs will be sorry they made this trade someday & didn't draft him themselves. Time will tell.

 

[Alf Silfversson]

Also interesting that Kleven produced much more playing in the dev program exhibition games (Biosteel, international, college) than in the USHL games. Still not an offensive dynamo, but more offense against arguably stiffer competition

If I'm not mistaken at the USHL level Kleven played mostly with Brock Faber in a shutdown role. I find it somewhat concerning that Faber was able to produce some points and Kleven just wasn't. Suggests to me that it Faber got the puck up to the forwards much more often than Kleven did. Of course that could be a system thing (like Boucher's one-sided thing with the D).

Funnily enough Faber was selected one pick after Kleven. It'll be fun to see how they both turn out and if the Sens, after their extensive viewings of both, picked the right guy.

 

[Alf Silfversson]

There are plenty of examples of shutdown D-men who went on to have good NHL careers without putting up a lot of offensive pts, Boro played 6 full seasons in Ottawa without scoring very much, same for Volchenkov & Luke Schenn just won a SC. No NHL team has just offensive defencemen who can put up offensive pts, some of them prevent pts from being scored against & play on the PK. While most will see those two examples as laughable, let's not forget that they have played in the NHL for several yrs earning big money while we sit at home watching on TV, they are still NHL players regardless of what people think & say about them who made it.

Ottawa won't need Kleven to put up pts, they will need him to make big hits, block shots, clear the front of the net, play on the PK, intimidate forwards & drop the gloves when required. They should have enough PMD to put up pts & we shouldn't be expecting this guy to do it, IMO he could be more like Gudbranson, hopefully better. Sometimes having a couple of players who are good defensively is important to stop other team's good players from scoring against & that becomes very valuable especially in the playoffs. IMO giving up a couple of picks to acquire a very good defensive defenceman who has plenty of upside is worth the gamble. I would bet the Leafs will be sorry they made this trade someday & didn't draft him themselves. Time will tell.

You are absolutely right that NHL teams need some defensemen to play in a defensive role. I think what @theanalytic is saying, is that even among guys who end up as good purely defensive defensemen in the NHL, MOST of them were able to produce some points at lower levels, especially junior leagues.

I always think back to Shaun Van Allen in a discussion like this (I know he was a forward but I think the point still stands). He was a dynamic scorer in junior and then a top scorer in the AHL. His poor skating stopped him from being an NHL scorer but he adjusted his game, listened to coaches and became a very valuable defensive forward. Now he was using his hands, skill and hockey smarts to make sound defensive plays with and away from the puck. Chris Kelly was another guy who could score in junior but went on to become a really good defensive forward.

Even guys drafted for their defense (eg Barrett Jackman, Luke Schenn, etc.) were able to put up some points in junior. For the vast majority of NHL players, even purely defensive ones, they were able to be somewhat offensively gifted in junior hockey. I think the NHL just demands those basic puck and skating skills. There are exceptions but for players who could not score in junior the deck is certainly stacked against them to become NHL players.

 

[BondraTime]

If I'm not mistaken at the USHL level Kleven played mostly with Brock Faber in a shutdown role. I find it somewhat concerning that Faber was able to produce some points and Kleven just wasn't. Suggests to me that it Faber got the puck up to the forwards much more often than Kleven did. Of course that could be a system thing (like Boucher's one-sided thing with the D).

Funnily enough Faber was selected one pick after Kleven. It'll be fun to see how they both turn out and if the Sens, after their extensive viewings of both, picked the right guy.

Faber had the same amount of points as Kleven

 

[Micklebot]

If I'm not mistaken at the USHL level Kleven played mostly with Brock Faber in a shutdown role. I find it somewhat concerning that Faber was able to produce some points and Kleven just wasn't. Suggests to me that it Faber got the puck up to the forwards much more often than Kleven did. Of course that could be a system thing (like Boucher's one-sided thing with the D).

Funnily enough Faber was selected one pick after Kleven. It'll be fun to see how they both turn out and if the Sens, after their extensive viewings of both, picked the right guy.

So its interesting you bring up Faber because if you look at their production in the exhibition games, its almost identical (12 pts in 45 games for Kleven vs 12 pts in 46 games for Faber). Fabers offensive advantage comes from games in the USHL, which he put up 9 in 19 vs Klevens 2 in 17. Not sure what can be read from that to be honest, but both will be playing against those college teams 100% of the time this year and won't play against USHL teams where Faber held a big advantage...

 

[ijif]

Faber had the same amount of points as Kleven

In USDP games, they both had 12. In the USHL, Faber had 9 and Kleven had 2.

 

[BondraTime]

In USDP games, they both had 12. In the USHL, Faber had 9 and Kleven had 2.

That is one and the same. USHL games are counted towards the USDP total.

Faber only had 3 points outside of the 19 USHL games, against National and NCAA teams

 

[Micklebot]

Faber had the same amount of points as Kleven

am i misreading the stat lines, do the 45 games on elite prospects include the 17 ushl games or are they as i thought in addition to them?

Edit. Appears i am, thx

 

[Alf Silfversson]

am i misreading the stat lines, do the 45 games on elite prospects include the 17 ushl games or are they as i thought in addition to them?

Edit. Appears i am, thx

So which is it? In addition to or included in?

 

[aragorn]

IMO points are irrelevant when analyzing a guy picked to be a defensive defenceman. It's their other traits that are important & the very reason they were selected for a particular role. At 6'4" Kleven was selected to be a shutdown defenceman not a PMD & while his skating isn't great, I assume that it will improve every yr. I think the team would be ecstatic if they could get 10 to 15 pts out of him per yr. Hopefully, he has the head for it too.

 

[Micklebot]

So which is it? In addition to or included in?

If you go to the usdp website you can check out the full game logs, and the ushl games are included in the total 45 usdp games

 

[BondraTime]

So which is it? In addition to or included in?

Included in

Here are Faber's game logs (0 points in 8 games against against National teams, 3 points against NCAA)
U.S. National Under-18 Team - 2019-20 Regular Season - Roster - #14 - Brock Faber - D

Here are Kleven's (3 points in 8 games against National teams, 4 points against NCAA)
U.S. National Under-18 Team - 2019-20 Regular Season - Roster - #25 - Tyler Kleven - D

So Kleven had more points per game, and scored more against NCAA (very slightly) and National teams, and had 2 points in the biosteel game compared to 0 for Faber. Faber was more productive in the 17 game USHL sample size.

 

[Micklebot]

IMO points are irrelevant when analyzing a guy picked to be a defensive defenceman. It's their other traits that are important & the very reason they were selected for a particular role. At 6'4" Kleven was selected to be a shutdown defenceman not a PMD & while his skating isn't great, I assume that it will improve every yr. I think the team would be ecstatic if they could get 10 to 15 pts out of him per yr. Hopefully, he has the head for it too.

Even a defensive dman need to be able to move the puck quickly and effectively, i think pts production gets used as a bit of a proxy for that. If you produce nothing at the lower levels its a potential flag that you lack the skills needed so i get why people look to it, but imo its more just a flag and actually watching how he handles the puck in his end and under pressure is far more important.

 

[Micklebot]

Included in

Here are Faber's game logs (0 points in 8 games against against National teams, 3 points against NCAA)
U.S. National Under-18 Team - 2019-20 Regular Season - Roster - #14 - Brock Faber - D

Here are Kleven's (3 points in 8 games against National teams, 4 points against NCAA)
U.S. National Under-18 Team - 2019-20 Regular Season - Roster - #25 - Tyler Kleven - D

So Kleven had more points per game, and scored more against NCAA and National teams, and had 2 points in the biosteel game compared to 0 for Faber. Faber was more productive in the 17 game USHL sample size.

The real question is what does that mean, and i have absolutely no answer...

 

[BondraTime]

The real question is what does that mean, and i have absolutely no answer...

Very little. Both guys counted on for shutdown scored at essentially the same rate

 

[Alf Silfversson]

Included in

Here are Faber's game logs (0 points in 8 games against against National teams, 3 points against NCAA)
U.S. National Under-18 Team - 2019-20 Regular Season - Roster - #14 - Brock Faber - D

Here are Kleven's (3 points in 8 games against National teams, 4 points against NCAA)
U.S. National Under-18 Team - 2019-20 Regular Season - Roster - #25 - Tyler Kleven - D

So Kleven had more points per game, and scored more against NCAA (very slightly) and National teams, and had 2 points in the biosteel game compared to 0 for Faber. Faber was more productive in the 17 game USHL sample size.

Cool. Thanks. I found it weird that one guy in a pairing (asked to do the same thing) was scoring more than the other guy.

 

[ijif]

That is one and the same. USHL games are counted towards the USDP total.

Faber only had 3 points outside of the 19 USHL games, against National and NCAA teams

Yes, I just like to isolate the USHL games. It just feels like a standard grouping, but that is just my preference. I probably should have presented the data more clearly.

But yeah, in the end, you were right that they had the same amount of points.

 

[BondraTime]

Cool. Thanks. I found it weird that one guy in a pairing (asked to do the same thing) was scoring more than the other guy.

Yeah it's a strange way to have them listed.

Funnily enough, Kleven was only behind Sanderson in defensive scoring in all games outside of the USHL with 10 points in 28 games (very low bar). Sanderson had 15 in 28.

 

[ijif]

Pick224 has the data presented in the most correct way.