Blue Jays Discussion: Trades and Signings - Pitchers Market is Heating Up

[dredeye]

I tried looking at the past draft for a similar scenario. I noticed the Yankees signed 3 free agents with QO's, McCann, Ellsbury, Beltran.

However the Yankees highest pick was their 2nd rounder. Now if they signed 3 guys, they should have lost 3 picks. That leads me to believe they lost their 1st rounder, and 2 comp picks beceuase I'm not sure what else they could have lost. But I'm unsure if they had 2 comp picks, did they lost 2 guys they gave QO to? I can't remember?

Nevermind. I should have kept reading. Someone else responded with the answer

 

[Woodman19]

So apparently Toritani will decide this week between the Jays, Padres and his Japanese team.

 

[Bluejaysfan*]

Interesting apparently Davidi speculated earlier this week that we might see the Jays trade for a reliever in January and brought up Pentecosts name and saying with Martin here he could be used as trade bait.

That would probably be one of the dumber things that Toronto could do...Trading away a top prospect for a relieve just because you have a great catcher (albeit on the wrong side of 30) is a recipe for disaster. Keep Pentecost and if he becomes an elite prospect, that's a great future trade chip or immediate replacement for Martin.

 

[Kurtz]

That would probably be one of the dumber things that Toronto could do...Trading away a top prospect for a relieve just because you have a great catcher (albeit on the wrong side of 30) is a recipe for disaster. Keep Pentecost and if he becomes an elite prospect, that's a great future trade chip or immediate replacement for Martin.

I'm not disagreeing with you necessarily, but...Pentecost is the 6th ranked prospect on a farm that's roughly league-average. He's also at least a year away from majors, quite likely more.

Chapman is a young ace reliever, who has 2 years of control left, and has put up a WAR of 3.6, 2 and 1.9 in the last 3 years. If in 2 years he's lost to free agency, he also brings back a high sandwich pick.

In terms of value, I have to think that Chapman would carry more.

 

[trellaine201]

Does anyone know what injury Pentecost had last year? It was somewhat hush hush I think? I remember trying to find info. Couldn't find anything. I think he must a good chunk of time.

Thanks

PS never mind i found it lol a wrist injury ended his year

 

[showtime8]

Does anyone know what injury Pentecost had last year? It was somewhat hush hush I think? I remember trying to find info. Couldn't find anything. I think he must a good chunk of time.

Thanks

PS never mind i found it lol a wrist injury ended his year

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=pentec000max

 

[Eyedea]

I'm not disagreeing with you necessarily, but...Pentecost is the 6th ranked prospect on a farm that's roughly league-average. He's also at least a year away from majors, quite likely more.

Chapman is a young ace reliever, who has 2 years of control left, and has put up a WAR of 3.6, 2 and 1.9 in the last 3 years. If in 2 years he's lost to free agency, he also brings back a high sandwich pick.

In terms of value, I have to think that Chapman would carry more.

Toronto's farm isn't league average.

 

[Amadeus]

I'm not disagreeing with you necessarily, but...Pentecost is the 6th ranked prospect on a farm that's roughly league-average. He's also at least a year away from majors, quite likely more.

Chapman is a young ace reliever, who has 2 years of control left, and has put up a WAR of 3.6, 2 and 1.9 in the last 3 years. If in 2 years he's lost to free agency, he also brings back a high sandwich pick.

In terms of value, I have to think that Chapman would carry more.

Our farm is definitely one of the better ones in the league. We have tons of high ceiling prospects that don't get labelled as the next big things just like they are with the Yankees and Red Sox but we're up there.

Having the largest scouting staff in the entire league is working out very well so far.

Many of the pitchers we have and hitters we've drafted under AA's watch are just reaching the majors or are extremely close.

 

[Kurtz]

Toronto's farm isn't league average.

What would possibly give you that impression?


A couple of months ago, Rosenbaum of Bleacher Report had us 15th (before the Donaldson trade).
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/...rm-systems-after-the-2014-milb-season/page/17

Baseball Prospectus had us 13th for the past 2 seasons.

Sporting News had us 19th.

Keith Law had us 24th at the beginning of the year.

 

[Kurtz]

Our farm is definitely one of the better ones in the league. We have tons of high ceiling prospects that don't get labelled as the next big things just like they are with the Yankees and Red Sox but we're up there.

Having the largest scouting staff in the entire league is working out very well so far.

Many of the pitchers we have and hitters we've drafted under AA's watch are just reaching the majors or are extremely close.

I have no problem with our scouting staff, but we gave away 2 of our top 3 prospects for Dickey, and we gave up 3 of our top 15 prospects for Donaldson. Given that, I actually think it's fairly impressive that experts still rank our farm system as league-average. These same experts were not shy about putting us into top 3 before we made the Dickey deal, by the way, so I don't think this is the case of them overlooking us because we're not the Yankees.

 

[Eyedea]

What would possibly give you that impression?


A couple of months ago, Rosenbaum of Bleacher Report had us 15th (before the Donaldson trade).
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/...rm-systems-after-the-2014-milb-season/page/17

Baseball Prospectus had us 13th for the past 2 seasons.

Sporting News had us 19th.

Keith Law had us 24th at the beginning of the year.

From BP:

Farm System Trajectory for 2015: Up. The Jays have some of the best young prospect depth in baseball, and as the short-season talent start to develop at the full-season level, the system as a whole should jump into the top 10, where they are likely to stay for a very long time.

From BA:

11(tie). Blue Jays

11 (tie). BLUE JAYS
RHP Marcus Stroman (10 EL) • RHP Aaron Sanchez (10 FSL) • OF Kevin Pillar (19 IL) • SS Franklin Barreto (5 GCL) • RHP Chase DeJong (6 APPY)

With the exception of the top three prospects listed here, Toronto deals in volume—not star power—at the short-season levels with one representative from the Gulf Coast League, two from the Northwest League and seven from the Appalachian League.

John Sickels:

15) Toronto Blue Jays: This system could leap several spots by the end of the year headlined by Marcus Stroman, Daniel Norris, and Aaron Sanchez. The position side is quite toolsy but has high bust potential. Watch Low-A third baseman Mitch Nay closely.

Law rags on the Jays for trading Syndergaard/TDA/Marisnick and not signing Bickford which is why he kept them at 24. Not really curious to see where he puts them now because he's an asshat. Regardless, there's a lot of different opinions on the Jays system due to the risk factor of the prospects. They all do not deny the talent in the system, but they still give them a drop in ranks due to several pieces still being in low minors and the volatility that comes with them.

You have Law that thinks of the farm as being bottom 10, and then you have Jason Parks who thinks of them as being top 10. I try to be as realistic as possible but I definitely think the system is in much better shape than at least 15 other organizations.

 

[Nasty Nazem]

Law doesn't rag on the Jays for not signing Bickford. He thinks Bickford is a reliever who shouldn't have been picked 10th overall at all and Jays were better off collecting the 11th pick next season... but obviously last year, it hurt the farm system ranking because you didn't sign your first round pick and rest of the draft was pretty poor too.

IIRC, the reason Law put them so low was not because Jays didn't have talent but it was mostly lower level talent that isn't really valuable to other teams around the league in a trade (which, well he is not wrong).

Farm system was average last year (mainly because it was almost all rookie ball guys who are too far away and still unknowns) but the huge steps from Norris/Pompey made a big difference. Not only that, they went from lower level guys to major league ready and made huge improvements. Castro/Barreto/Urena/Graveman progress + drafting two first round picks is a huge boost to the system and its top 10 system now at the very least. Probably had a shot at top 5 pre-Donaldson deal.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

There's maybe 5 relief pitchers in baseball I trade Max Pentecost, or any of our other top 8 prospects for that matter, for and none of those five are available.

 

[selltrade]

remember its sportswriters speculating. AA acquired Donaldson without giving up Stroman, Sanchez, Norris, Hutch, Osuna or Hoffman. Id be surprised to see Pentecost go anywhere. His value will be in 2 to 3 years as Martin gets older and needs some DH time. Maybe AJ Jimenez gets dealt instead.

 

[Woodman19]

JonHeymanCBS
headley signing with yanks. 4 yrs, a little north of $50M

 

[Eyedea]

JonHeymanCBS
headley signing with yanks. 4 yrs, a little north of $50M

Headley > Sandoval

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Headley > Sandoval

Donaldson ($4m) > Headley ($12m) > Sandoval ($19m)

Crazy.

 

[TootooTrain]

Headley > Sandoval

We'll see how much the short porch helps him being a switch hitter. I like his defense better. Health is a more immediate issue with Chase. Time will tell if the protection around Sandy aids him. I think it will be a wash when it's all said and done. For that price tag though, I'd gladly take Chase.

 

[zeke]

keith law still has a grudge against the jays, even if he doesn't realize it himself.

it was funny seeing him start drooling over Noah immediately after we traded him, when he had him projected as a reliever when he was in our org. it was ALWAYS sanchez over syndergaar when they were both jays...and then as soon as he was traded suddenly keith thought noah was better. and the best is he then started crediting the mets development system with doing great work with their pitchingbprospects mechanics while saying the jays couldn't develop their arms st all.....and then as soon as he said that then this past season we saw great leaps in performance from stroman, norris, and even a bit from sanchez - guys who law pretty much crapped on who then outperformed most every prospect he rated higher than them - while mets prospects all stagnated or took a step back, including noah.. has he gone on to credit the jays development system for these pitching prospects badly outperforming his expectations and most every prospect he rated higher than them? nope.

don't listen to law when it comes to the jays. he absolutely cannot be unbiased when it comes to the jays.

 

[Woodman19]

keith law still has a grudge against the jays, even if he doesn't realize it himself.

it was funny seeing him start drooling over Noah immediately after we traded him, when he had him projected as a reliever when he was in our org. it was ALWAYS sanchez over syndergaar when they were both jays...and then as soon as he was traded suddenly keith thought noah was better. and the best is he then started crediting the mets development system with doing great work with their pitchingbprospects mechanics while saying the jays couldn't develop their arms st all.....and then as soon as he said that then this past season we saw great leaps in performance from stroman, norris, and even a bit from sanchez - guys who law pretty much crapped on who then outperformed most every prospect he rated higher than them - while mets prospects all stagnated or took a step back, including noah.. has he gone on to credit the jays development system for these pitching prospects badly outperforming his expectations and most every prospect he rated higher than them? nope.

don't listen to law when it comes to the jays. he absolutely cannot be unbiased when it comes to the jays.

You will find almost always that Jays prospects shoot up the rankings after they are traded elsewhere.

 

[selltrade]

keith law still has a grudge against the jays, even if he doesn't realize it himself.

it was funny seeing him start drooling over Noah immediately after we traded him, when he had him projected as a reliever when he was in our org. it was ALWAYS sanchez over syndergaar when they were both jays...and then as soon as he was traded suddenly keith thought noah was better. and the best is he then started crediting the mets development system with doing great work with their pitchingbprospects mechanics while saying the jays couldn't develop their arms st all.....and then as soon as he said that then this past season we saw great leaps in performance from stroman, norris, and even a bit from sanchez - guys who law pretty much crapped on who then outperformed most every prospect he rated higher than them - while mets prospects all stagnated or took a step back, including noah.. has he gone on to credit the jays development system for these pitching prospects badly outperforming his expectations and most every prospect he rated higher than them? nope.

don't listen to law when it comes to the jays. he absolutely cannot be unbiased when it comes to the jays.

totally agree Law is a tool

 

[Mach85]

keith law still has a grudge against the jays, even if he doesn't realize it himself.

it was funny seeing him start drooling over Noah immediately after we traded him, when he had him projected as a reliever when he was in our org. it was ALWAYS sanchez over syndergaar when they were both jays...and then as soon as he was traded suddenly keith thought noah was better. and the best is he then started crediting the mets development system with doing great work with their pitchingbprospects mechanics while saying the jays couldn't develop their arms st all.....and then as soon as he said that then this past season we saw great leaps in performance from stroman, norris, and even a bit from sanchez - guys who law pretty much crapped on who then outperformed most every prospect he rated higher than them - while mets prospects all stagnated or took a step back, including noah.. has he gone on to credit the jays development system for these pitching prospects badly outperforming his expectations and most every prospect he rated higher than them? nope.

don't listen to law when it comes to the jays. he absolutely cannot be unbiased when it comes to the jays.

Well, Syndergaard made significant strides in developing another pitch after leaving the Jays, which is what Law said made him change his mind. Also, Synergaard was pitching in Vegas and overcoming injuries much of the last year, but the stuff is there, so I wouldn't say he took a significant step back. While he was late to the party, Law has admitted he was wrong about Norris, and that he's surprised at how far he's come. I don't know if he's all that biased. Let's wait and see where he puts the Jays in his next rankings.

 

[Amadeus]

JonHeymanCBS
headley signing with yanks. 4 yrs, a little north of $50M

Good deal for the Yanks.

 

[zeke]

Well, Syndergaard made significant strides in developing another pitch after leaving the Jays, which is what Law said made him change his mind.

just because law gives a reason, it doesn't mean that reason is true. law loves to make **** up. (his one about brett wallace's "wide hips" was my favorite).

noah had a promising but inconsistent slurve with the jays...and has a promising but inconsistent slurve with the mets.

there was no improvement in noah's performance with the mets - his Ks didn't go up, his walks didn't go down, and his HR went up...even before he got to vegas. nothing noah has done with the mets has been as dominant as what he did with the jays.

 

[dredeye]

If he can stay healthy that headley deal should be a good one