Rumor: Trade Rumors/Proposals 2018-2019 (Part 17)

[Shruggs Peterson]

I think this is pretty reasonable, although a 2nd overall pick would be hard to pry from a team. I think chabot in retrospect is a top 3 pick in most drafts, and possibly first overall in some of them. He's also started to realize his potential, which would increase his value relative to an equivalent pick with the added risk.

Just curious but how confident are you that the current GM could garner a return close to what Yashin got?

 

[BondraTime]

Why?

What if the return is better for our team long term?

What if its jack hughes 1 for 1? What if its 473 first round picks?

Is it completely lost on you that there are hypothetical deals that make us better long term? Some that would please you? Or are you one of those guys that only ever wants to trade our worthless players? And throws out ridiculously one-sided proposals for any of our valuable players?

Is it lost on you that the value a non-competitive bottom feeder places on a cost-controlled star is lower than his value to a team that is on the cusp?
That this difference in valuation could lead to a deal favouring them in the short term and us in the long term?


If you think my proposed return is too low that's fine. Please say so, as that was exactly the kind of discourse i was inviting.

I dont care about the value, I never mentioned the value you wanted whatsoever. I think looking to trade your only superstar calibre player, who is 22, who you are building around, after stating that he is a building block, and trading away all the guys that don't fit the "rebuild's window" is moronic. Full stop.

Chabot is 22, he is still on his ELC. Tkachuk only has 2 years left on his ELC, are we looking to trade him as well to make us better in the future, or does the extra year make a difference?

No, I'm not making any hypothetical deals, because they are hypothetical and not realistic. A team like the Sens does not trade a guy like Chabot. Full stop. They build on him as he is their #1 player and most important piece on the roster at 22.

I'm not throwing any ridiculous one sided deals for any of our players, not sure why you bring that up?. I do want to trade our useless players, but I'm not naive to think we can, not sure why you're bringing that up?.

Is it lost on you that the teams on the cusp are in the playoffs? So where are you getting the top 10 prospect from a team on the cusp? Or the top 10 pick? If they even had a single thought those could help them as much as Chabot, why would they give them up for a single cost controlled ELC season of Chabot.

We will have a cost controlled Chabot, we will sign him to an 8 year deal with 5 RFA years and 3 UFA years for ~8 million a year.

Sure, "hypothetically" this could happen. But this never happens, because these hypothetical scenario's are not realistic in the slightest. What's the one trade in the past 2 decades where something remotely close to this happened? Yashin? All that took was a Hart nomination, and a full year long holdout, not exactly a repeatable scenario.

 

[Samboni]

Gabriel Gagne went unqualified by Toronto. Not really a surprise, but Sens related none the less.

I’m kinda bummed that he didn’t pan out since the Sens traded up to get him.

 

[FormentonTheFuture]

The financial restrictions are obviously extreme in Ottawa, arguably the worst in the league at this point, so I don't think trading Chabot (or other stars as they emerge) is really that insane. I mean it sucks and is depressing, but not unrealistic imo. At best his next contract will be his last in Ottawa, and with the new contracts setting trends, its not going to be for 7 or 8 years. This is a team that has to figure out a plan that either doesn't include star players since they can't afford them, or they plan to fill almost everything but their star players with league minimum players.

Rebuilding only restocks the cupboards, it doesn't fix the massive financial limitations that will have just as much of a hand in shaping the rebuild as the prospects picked. They need to keep the ball rolling year after year and start trying to be pro active moving players instead of selling low on everything.

It will come down to picking the right moments to make moves and try to make it work on a yearly basis, but anyone thinking a perennial contender is coming or that we'll stop losing star players, has not been paying attention imo.

Personally I disagree. I think the odds are far better that Melnyk is gone before Chabot. I think it’s clear he’s selling soon. Just my opinion.

 

[GrantLemons]

Why?

What if the return is better for our team long term?

What if its jack hughes 1 for 1? What if its 473 first round picks?

Is it completely lost on you that there are hypothetical deals that make us better long term? Some that would please you? Or are you one of those guys that only ever wants to trade our worthless players? And throws out ridiculously one-sided proposals for any of our valuable players?

Is it lost on you that the value a non-competitive bottom feeder places on a cost-controlled star is lower than his value to a team that is on the cusp?
That this difference in valuation could lead to a deal favouring them in the short term and us in the long term?


If you think my proposed return is too low that's fine. Please say so, as that was exactly the kind of discourse i was inviting.

What you're suggesting sort of goes without saying for any good player. There's a difference between, "what if a team offered us a package we couldn't turn down" and actively seeking to trade a 22 y/o #1 defenseman.

I don't see how in any scenario it would be wise for us to entertain moving Chabot outside of a "too good to be true" offer (which let's be honest almost never really materializes). If we snag a top 5 pick this season and get a stud forward, there's really no reason why we couldn't try to compete for a playoff spot in 2020-2021, and not having Chabot around would be a huge blow to that.

 

[L'Aveuglette]

The bemusement to the chabot trade suggestion is pretty strange to me. We're not going to compete in the next 2-3 years and a cost-controlled chabot is an awesome trading chip.

There are obvious situations where we would win the deal. But people always deride these suggestions rather than say what they mean -- "i dont think a team would offer us the kind of return i would want in order to give up a player of this calibre". That's a reasonable take (although blockbuster deals occasionally happen..jones trouba hamilton etc.).

But if we're not going to compete while he's cost controlled, maybe we're better off listening to offers.

I think i would pull the trigger for a top 10 pick, a 2nd, and a top 10 prospect.

Please stop.

 

[dumbdick]

The financial restrictions are obviously extreme in Ottawa, arguably the worst in the league at this point, so I don't think trading Chabot (or other stars as they emerge) is really that insane. I mean it sucks and is depressing, but not unrealistic imo. At best his next contract will be his last in Ottawa, and with the new contracts setting trends, its not going to be for 7 or 8 years. This is a team that has to figure out a plan that either doesn't include star players since they can't afford them, or they plan to fill almost everything but their star players with league minimum players.

Rebuilding only restocks the cupboards, it doesn't fix the massive financial limitations that will have just as much of a hand in shaping the rebuild as the prospects picked. They need to keep the ball rolling year after year and start trying to be pro active moving players instead of selling low on everything.

It will come down to picking the right moments to make moves and try to make it work on a yearly basis, but anyone thinking a perennial contender is coming or that we'll stop losing star players, has not been paying attention imo.

Yeah this is pretty much exactly where i was coming from with the chabot trade suggestion. Sell high, and trade guys when it hurts. Judging by the forum reaction, it hurts right now. Just keep extracting value on futures deals until the team can compete with a young stable of cheap stars and a strong supporting cast.

 

[Shruggs Peterson]

Yeah this is pretty much exactly where i was coming from with the chabot trade suggestion. Sell high, and trade guys when it hurts. Judging by the forum reaction, it hurts right now. Just keep extracting value on futures deals until the team can compete with a young stable of cheap stars and a strong supporting cast.

But that just seems like such a pipe dream. Young cheap stars would mean keeping them on their ELC's and hope they can compete within their first 3 years in the league and if not, keep trading them to start again.

There's no viability in a model like that and there would be no one to cheer for in a scenario like that.

 

[GrantLemons]

Yeah this is pretty much exactly where i was coming from with the chabot trade suggestion. Sell high, and trade guys when it hurts. Judging by the forum reaction, it hurts right now. Just keep extracting value on futures deals until the team can compete with a young stable of cheap stars and a strong supporting cast.

You also have to consider the PR angle of it. After all of the blows the fans have taken the last year or so, is it really wise to send your white knight out of town at age 22? The successor to EK?

Fans would be pissed, and Eugene really can't afford another PR blow like that. What kind of message is that sending? We just trade anyone that is good?

 

[Knave]

Yeah this is pretty much exactly where i was coming from with the chabot trade suggestion. Sell high, and trade guys when it hurts. Judging by the forum reaction, it hurts right now. Just keep extracting value on futures deals until the team can compete with a young stable of cheap stars and a strong supporting cast.

Pietrangelo is 29 now. You don't think we'll be competitive at all within the next 6-7 years that it's worth keeping Chabot around and signing him? That's a pretty dark outlook for the future.

 

[FolignoQuantumLeap]

Yeah this is pretty much exactly where i was coming from with the chabot trade suggestion. Sell high, and trade guys when it hurts. Judging by the forum reaction, it hurts right now. Just keep extracting value on futures deals until the team can compete with a young stable of cheap stars and a strong supporting cast.

There's no such thing as "cheap stars" anymore. 2nd contracts are massive deals now. You either pay up or deal the player. The Sens have to make a decision on Chabot and if he's a guy to build around because he's going to get his money one way or another.

If we want to get out of the basement, we can't rely on a bunch of ELCs to propel us there. We actually need a core. If we just keep trading away players who are worth big money every time they are due for raises, we will never compete.

 

[BondraTime]

But that just seems like such a pipe dream. Young cheap stars would mean keeping them on their ELC's and hope they can compete within their first 3 years in the league and if not, keep trading them to start again.

There's no viability in a model like that and there would be no one to cheer for in a scenario like that.

Yeah, it's absurd

 

[danielpalfredsson]

The only reason we will trade Chabot is if we cannot extend him and are afraid of being unable to match a signing bonus heavy offer sheet next year.

The Senators are going to bite the bullet and pay Chabot though. They need to keep him in order to validate everything they've said about this rebuild while trying to regain some faith from the fan base.

If he's asking 8-9 million per for 8 years, the Senators will probably just get him on a 5 year term so that they can have him at a more palatable AAV. They can justify it as not being a consequence of the inability of the Senators to spend because the big boy clubs like Toronto and Detroit have done it with Matthews and Larkin.

5 years, 6.72 million.

For reference, anything around 10-11 percent of the salary cap is probably market value for Chabot on a 7-8 year term. That would be in line with what Karlsson, Doughty, Pietrangelo, and Ekblad received coming off of their ELCs. 8 years at 8.72 million would be nice.

 

[L'Aveuglette]

Yeah, it's absurd

What's absurd is that people are seriously arguing with someone who wants to trade our 22 YEAR OLD SUPERSTAR.

 

[Nac Mac Feegle]

When the "Ottawa can do no wrong" people start floating out a rumor of trading someone who is about to command a huge salary......

Time to get worried.

 

[Ouroboros]

I wonder why trading 21/22 year old star players hasn't caught on leaguewide as a rebuilding technique?

 

[dumbdick]

But that just seems like such a pipe dream. Young cheap stars would mean keeping them on their ELC's and hope they can compete within their first 3 years in the league and if not, keep trading them to start again.

There's no viability in a model like that and there would be no one to cheer for in a scenario like that.

The thinking was to emulate a scenario like vegas in year one. Commit to a well balanced roster of middle six/2nd pairing players as your core (white, norris, pageau, etc), and maybe one or two stars at max. The rest can be recycled in futures deals before their raises come up. Keep the money spread out across non-flashy guys that can win but who won't break the bank. It isn't ideal, but i think its a legit strategy for a cash strapped team.

 

[FormentonTheFuture]

When the "Ottawa can do no wrong" people start floating out a rumor of trading someone who is about to command a huge salary......

Time to get worried.

Oh come on, this is what deters people from actually sharing their opinions on here. Yes it would be dumb in my opinion but nothing wrong with debating it.

 

[Nac Mac Feegle]

Oh come on, this is what deters people from actually sharing their opinions on here. Yes it would be dumb in my opinion but nothing wrong with debating it.

If the franchise is at that point where folks are really starting to consider moving an elite 22-year-old defenseman just before a new contract......you can't help but worry. Even Florida or Arizona wouldn't consider that move.

 

[FormentonTheFuture]

If the franchise is at that point where folks are really starting to consider moving an elite 22-year-old defenseman just before a new contract......you can't help but worry. Even Florida or Arizona wouldn't consider that move.

I just think it’s unnecessary to say he was “floating out a rumor” when the guy was just bringing up a topic for debate.

I don’t think there should be any worry at all, personally. I think both our big stars will be here for a long time.

 

[Sen sational]

Why?

What if the return is better for our team long term?

What if its jack hughes 1 for 1? What if its 473 first round picks?

Is it completely lost on you that there are hypothetical deals that make us better long term? Some that would please you? Or are you one of those guys that only ever wants to trade our worthless players? And throws out ridiculously one-sided proposals for any of our valuable players?

Is it lost on you that the value a non-competitive bottom feeder places on a cost-controlled star is lower than his value to a team that is on the cusp?
That this difference in valuation could lead to a deal favouring them in the short term and us in the long term?


If you think my proposed return is too low that's fine. Please say so, as that was exactly the kind of discourse i was inviting.

That is a very interesting hypothetical. For me the answer is no, I would not sell Chabot for picks. That is partly because I think it would be another gut punch for the fan base and the rebuild of the team and it’s credibility.

I would also argue that, although not as pronounced as in basketball, where you can have 1 or 2 players win championships ie, Leonard, Lebron etc. There are many teams that have willed themselves to championships on the backs of a handful of superstars Crosby, Malkin, Murray, Letang and a middling complementary group.

In our case Chabot can become, is, the type of superstar that gives you 25 minutes a night and will be on the ice in all the critical moments. These players are rare, when you get them and have the proper complementary group you can go far (Chabot/Brannstrom, Keith/Seabrook).

If the sens are doing what I envision, by creating a hard working, gritty culture, with a few superstars and then a really good group of complementary players I think they can be very successful in the long term. As it stands our D, recently drafted, are all very skilled and will drive puck possession for the team. If we can add a few very gifted forwards to take advantage of our puck possession D they will create more chances and score more goals.

In other words take Carolina, good middling team without the really high end, save for Aho, players and strong defence. If Carolina could have added a few more high end goal scorers they would have made it to the finals.

I would argue that every year or two Ottawa should sell off a few higher end middling players so they can invest in cheap ELC contracts so they can keep performing superstars and roll over cheap middling replacements. I would also, as a general rule, not offer contracts longer than 5 years after a player hit 28, and would trade them at the TDL if an agreement was not signed.

I can see the logic of your argument, I just see Chabot as a rare commodity and feel that it is easier to find and build the complementary part of the team than it is to find the superstars that can will you to victory.

 

[Acidrain66]

The thinking was to emulate a scenario like vegas in year one. Commit to a well balanced roster of middle six/2nd pairing players as your core (white, norris, pageau, etc), and maybe one or two stars at max. The rest can be recycled in futures deals before their raises come up. Keep the money spread out across non-flashy guys that can win but who won't break the bank. It isn't ideal, but i think its a legit strategy for a cash strapped team.

Lol they have an owner with huge pockets

 

[dumbdick]

If the franchise is at that point where folks are really starting to consider moving an elite 22-year-old defenseman just before a new contract......you can't help but worry. Even Florida or Arizona wouldn't consider that move.

I just think we could conceivably convert chabot and his sky high value into something that helps the team more long term. As stated before, most people disagree because they don't think we'd get a good enough return. Thats fair, but instead of just saying that they basically call me dumb for raising it, because internet. I honestly think it might happen. I suspect dorion and co have a roster salary distribution in mind for where they expect to put their salary dollars. It will come down to what they think he will command and whether he is a star they want to build the backend around. If he's not, and they can get a great deal, the right play is to deal him now.

 

[FormentonTheFuture]

I just think we could conceivably convert chabot and his sky high value into something that helps the team more long term. As stated before, most people disagree because they don't think we'd get a good enough return. Thats fair, but instead of just saying that they basically call me dumb for raising it, because internet. I honestly think it might happen. I suspect dorion and co have a roster salary distribution in mind for where they expect to put their salary dollars. It will come down to what they think he will command and whether he is a star they want to build the backend around. If he's not, and they can get a great deal, the right play is to deal him now.

Why wouldn’t he be the star to build the back end around though? I think they’ve already made it clear that they believe he is the team’s future along with Chabot. I don’t think this has any probability of occurring. They would also know what he will command as they’ve probably discussed the contract for a while now.

 

[Nac Mac Feegle]

I just think we could conceivably convert chabot and his sky high value into something that helps the team more long term. As stated before, most people disagree because they don't think we'd get a good enough return. Thats fair, but instead of just saying that they basically call me dumb for raising it, because internet. I honestly think it might happen. I suspect dorion and co have a roster salary distribution in mind for where they expect to put their salary dollars. It will come down to what they think he will command and whether he is a star they want to build the backend around. If he's not, and they can get a great deal, the right play is to deal him now.

But at some point, you need to convert the magic beans into players.

Now if it's a point where it's a done deal that Melynk will sell in, say 3-4 years, and the new arena will be built in about 7-8 years....then I can see a bit of long-term planning. But not at this point. Not unless there are some concrete plans afoot (ones that even Eugene can't screw up).

...and if that's a real possibility, the organization had damned well better spell it all out before moving the kids everyone has fallen in love with.