Speculation: Trade Ideas and Free Agency XIV

[Wild11MN]

So, this is the next line of ******** that we're just going to accept as fact around here? Are you guys aware that they keep statistics during the playoffs? Are you also aware that those statistics are easily found on the internet?

Second leading scorer last year in the playoffs. Tied for second leading scorer this year in the playoffs.

"Playoff no-show".

 

[nickschultzfan]

So, this is the next line of ******** that we're just going to accept as fact around here? Are you guys aware that they keep statistics during the playoffs? Are you also aware that those statistics are easily found on the internet?

Watch. The. Game. Tape.

 

[Sharppi]

You just don't trade your 2nd and 3rd point producers. Just don't. All signs point to Fletcher going with this group onwards to the season and I'm fine with that. Internal improvement is the name of the game.

 

[Alexandrov]

Coyle may be big but he's plenty soft himself. I wouldn't say there's much difference between the two players values at all. Haula value? Lol, are you serious? Let's pro rate all three players to 82 game seasons.

Coyle: 82GP 11g 24a 35pts
Names: 82GP 17g 13a 30pts
Haula: 82GP 8g 8a 16pts

One is younger, is a better goal scorer, has a higher p/60 and costs 1/3 of Coyle.

22yo rookie seasons

Namestnikov 43GP 9+7
Haula 46GP 6+9

Namestnikov was shooting at 19.6%. Yeah 19.6%. But just pro rate that, why not.

 

[Digitalbooya]

Who has more trade value: Coyle or Spurgeon?

 

[llp]

coyle because of his contract

 

[Digitalbooya]

22yo rookie seasons

Namestnikov 43GP 9+7
Haula 46GP 6+9

Namestnikov was shooting at 19.6%. Yeah 19.6%. But just pro rate that, why not.

In that Haula 22 yo rookie season he had a higher p/60 than Nino, Fontaine, Coyle, and Zucker. It wasn't a bad season at all and it's not like there's not room for growth. People seem to forget we traded for Nino when he put up 28g 22a 50pts in 74 games in the AHL. We could have a similar type break out with Pulkkinen putting up 31g 28a 59pts in 71 games and Namestnikov putting up 19g 29a 48pts in 56 games.

 

[Digitalbooya]

coyle because of his contract

Take out the contract. Who does then?

 

[Alexandrov]

In that Haula 22 yo rookie season he had a higher p/60 than Nino, Fontaine, Coyle, and Zucker. It wasn't a bad season at all and it's not like there's not room for growth. People seem to forget we traded for Nino when he put up 28g 22a 50pts in 74 games in the AHL. We could have a similar type break out with Pulkkinen putting up 31g 28a 59pts in 71 games and Namestnikov putting up 19g 29a 48pts in 56 games.

And if there was a trade to be made around a peaked 4th liner + 3rd rounder for Namestnikov, I think people would be on board. But we shouldn't trade a young NHL contributor who may be on verge of a breakout to a young AHL contributor, who may be on verge of a breakout. Not forgetting we'd be adding a decent D prospect. Didn't TB fans say no thanks anyway?

 

[Victorious Secret]

Take out the contract. Who does then?

Spurgeon, by a fair margin.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Watch. The. Game. Tape.

Watched every game. Nothing I saw leads to giving him away for essentially nothing.

 

[ThatGuy22]

The narrative that Pominville's drop in production was just a "blip" and that it will spring back to his "historic norm" is false.

Across the league, players in their low 30s almost never regain the production from even their late 20s. As a matter fact, they are on the decline. While a single year-to-year change could turn positive again, that is almost entirely due to external factors such as playing with better linemates or in a better situation.

On the Wild, Pominville is already in the best situation with the best linesmates. His external factors cannot improve any more than they already are. He got the prime scoring position on a #1PP that never left the ice. He played with the 2 best offensive players on the Wild. The only place to go is down. In other words, Pominville will be lucky to recreate his production from last season.

Pominville will be 33 this fall. Those whiffs, shots at the goalie's chest, and missed nets weren't unlucky. Your eyes were not playing a trick on you.

That was 92 games of evidence that Pominville's hands are going. Which is really bad when you are a one-dimensional offensive player.

We've had this conversation a number of times, and when guys lose their ability to score, it shows in the underlying numbers that what they are losing the most is their ability to generate chances. Their shot rates drop, their possession numbers drop, etc.

Pominville has shown none of these indicators at all. Shooting percentages tend to have long slow declines. Pominville shooting roughly half what he did the previous two years where he shot above his career percentage is absolutely a blip. He may not get back up to the 13% or 16% of his previous two years, but i'll be shocked if he isn't a 10% shooter next year.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

10% shooter this past year is 25 goal scorer. I'll take that.

 

[BagHead]

10% shooter this past year is 25 goal scorer. I'll take that.

That was the info I was wondering, thanks for posting that.

Population needs to stick around. I'm not saying there aren't better younger players, but what I am saying is that you aren't going to get those players for anything less than a king's ransom. Even on a "down" year he was one of our top-3 scorers in both the playoffs and regular season. If this were the low scoring Wild teams of the early and mid 2000's, I'd say that his scoring position doesn't mean much, but this was the most offensive team we've ever assembled. Being a top-3 scorer on it is saying something significant.

And trading him for a prospect that may or may not pan out would be foolish at this point. We're trying to win now.

 

[Victorious Secret]

10% shooter this past year is 25 goal scorer. I'll take that.

Definitely. Lowest shooting percentage from a 25 goal scorer was Claude Giroux and Phil Kessel with 9% and 8.9%. Next up was 10.5% (Plekanec). They just had such large volume they were able to make up for their low shooting percentage.

 

[Al Lagoon]

Let's just hang on to Coyle. His size, all-around game, and versatility make him a valuable piece going forward.

 

[MNRube]

Let's just hang on to Coyle. His size, all-around game, and versatility make him a valuable piece going forward.

Think Wild FO has same feelings as you. Kid still is loaded with upside. Already a very good player for middle 6 and he has more offense in him.

 

[nickschultzfan]

Watched every game. Nothing I saw leads to giving him away for essentially nothing.

Sounds like you are looking at the problem in a vacuum. If Pominville made 2.5 million/year, then we can slot him on the 2nd line RW and not worry too much.

Pominville's contract impacts the Wild's ability to re-sign Spurgeon, Zucker, Granlund, Nino, Dumba, and the rest of the player's whose contracts will come up over the next 4 seasons. It also blocks trade possibilities.

Between Pominville and Vanek, I would much rather dump Vanek. But Pominville is the more moveable of the two.

 

[nickschultzfan]

We've had this conversation a number of times, and when guys lose their ability to score, it shows in the underlying numbers that what they are losing the most is their ability to generate chances. Their shot rates drop, their possession numbers drop, etc.

Pominville has shown none of these indicators at all. Shooting percentages tend to have long slow declines. Pominville shooting roughly half what he did the previous two years where he shot above his career percentage is absolutely a blip. He may not get back up to the 13% or 16% of his previous two years, but i'll be shocked if he isn't a 10% shooter next year.

I hear what you are saying, and Pominville still gets himself into good shooting positions. However, you are still speculating an increase in production, even though he got prime minutes and linemates all year long.

Granlund needs a finisher who will actually finish. The defense and Dubnyk cannot have players who cough up the puck in the neutral zone or at the offensive blueline.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Sounds like you are looking at the problem in a vacuum. If Pominville made 2.5 million/year, then we can slot him on the 2nd line RW and not worry too much.

Pominville's contract impacts the Wild's ability to re-sign Spurgeon, Zucker, Granlund, Nino, Dumba, and the rest of the player's whose contracts will come up over the next 4 seasons. It also blocks trade possibilities.

Between Pominville and Vanek, I would much rather dump Vanek. But Pominville is the more moveable of the two.

First, it only really only blocks Spurgeon, so a decision will have to be made on that, but likely made next summer. Second, this is only a problem if Pominville was actually as useless as you're making him out to be, which he isn't. He just isn't. So yeah, you don't like the guy and want him gone. That's fine. But it's not practical, nor does it somehow benefit this team just having him absent. He is still a productive player. If he was making $2.5M like you said above, he'd be one of, if not the, best UFA values in the entire league.

 

[ThatGuy22]

I hear what you are saying, and Pominville still gets himself into good shooting positions. However, you are still speculating an increase in production, even though he got prime minutes and linemates all year long.

Granlund needs a finisher who will actually finish. The defense and Dubnyk cannot have players who cough up the puck in the neutral zone or at the offensive blueline.

I'm making an educated guess, that Pominville didn't turn into a 7% shooter overnight, while all other aspects of his game remained constant or improved.

Every year you see it. A player will have a bad shooting year and score less goals, next year his shooting will rebound and be back to his normal production levels.

34 year old Radim Vrbata just had this happen. in 13/14 he shot a dismal 7.5% on 260ish shots, and only had 20 goals. In 14/15, he shot a closer to norm 11.5% and had 31 goals on 260ish shots. All his underlying numbers stayed constant(just like Pominville).

Zetterberg shot 6.5% in the lockout season and got 11 goals in 46 games, rebounded with a 10% and potted 16 in 45 games before his Olympic injury in 13/14.

Steens hit both ends of the spectrum with an 8 goal 6.2% in 12/13, to 16% in a 33 goal 13/14 to a happy medium of 24 goal 10.8% 14/15.

Saying 7.6% is Pominville's new norm is as ridiculous as it would have been for any of those other older scoring wingers. As long as he maintains his underlying numbers, he's going to be fine and a net positive for the Wild.

 

[Spurgeon]

I don't think Fletcher is going to be making any moves. This off-season will be quiet and I'm comfortable going into next season with roughly the same team and a full season of Dubnyk in net.

Pominville will rebound and hopefully Vanek plays differently after a year in the system and being completely healthy.

If we're still *****ing about Vanek, you buy him out and take the $1.5 million and $2.5 million cap hits, which give you enough space to re-sign everybody.

 

[nickschultzfan]

First, it only really only blocks Spurgeon, so a decision will have to be made on that, but likely made next summer. Second, this is only a problem if Pominville was actually as useless as you're making him out to be, which he isn't. He just isn't. So yeah, you don't like the guy and want him gone. That's fine. But it's not practical, nor does it somehow benefit this team just having him absent. He is still a productive player. If he was making $2.5M like you said above, he'd be one of, if not the, best UFA values in the entire league.

Straw man argument. I never said he was useless. I said he was a highly depreciating asset that is signed long-term for a huge cap hit who is neither in our long-term plans and will have a marginal impact on getting a Cup to Minnesota. Pominville could be entirely replaced by Dumba on the 1st PP and Fontaine in 5v5.

In those situations, you move on early, not later. Otherwise you just get another Heatley, Havlat, Backstrom, etc. situation. Zombie players.

 

[nickschultzfan]

Saying 7.6% is Pominville's new norm is as ridiculous as it would have been for any of those other older scoring wingers. As long as he maintains his underlying numbers, he's going to be fine and a net positive for the Wild.

Not saying shooting % will always be 7.6%. Saying that the Wild can't afford to let Pominville "work through" his snake bite next year and the year after that and the year after that. He should get pushed down the line-up by younger players who deserve chances and big minutes.

 

[ThatGuy22]

Not saying shooting % will always be 7.6%. Saying that the Wild can't afford to let Pominville "work through" his snake bite next year and the year after that and the year after that. He should get pushed down the line-up by younger players who deserve chances and big minutes.

The Wild need players who put the puck on the net. And despite his many whiffs, and pass handcuffs he had this year, the only players that put the puck on net at a rate greater than Pomminville is Zucker and Parise.

When he stops doing that, I'm all for starting to ease him down the lineup.