Trade Deadline - Expected Returns, Hot Takes & Predictions etc.

[Ghost of Ethan Hunt]

40 Days & Nights til the TDL. I look forward to SY navigating the trade waters netting numerous futures & hopefully some decent prospects. The TDL always feels like Christmas morning, whether you're a buyer or seller, you're getting something.

I expect 6+ traded (3 from 1st group, at least 2/4 from 2nd group +at least 1/7 from 3rd group).


Very likely moved (with/without retention)...

Expected Return/Best Case/Worst Case

Nemeth - 2nd/2nd+4th (Andy G.)/3rd
LGD - 2nd+ B-level C prospect/late 1st/3rd +5th. **Small Bidding war**
Ryan - 2nd+3rd/late 1st/ 3rd+4th


Somewhat/Fairly likely moved (with/without retention)

Merrill - 2nd/2nd+5th/3rd
Helm - 3rd/2nd/4th or lower
Stecher - 2nd/2nd+4th/3rd *(expires '22)
Bernier - 2nd+C/LD/G prospect / late 1st/ 3rd+6th **potential small bidding war**


Hope we can move them for something (with retention)

Djoos 5th /4th /6th or 7th or nothing
Erne 5th /4th /6th or 7th or nothing
Filppula 4th /3rd / 6th or 7th or nothing
Gagner 5th /4th / 6th or 7th or nothing
Brome 5th /4th / 6th or 7th or nothing
Staal 3rd/3rd+5th/6th or 7th or nothing
Biega 7th/ 6th in 2025 / less than nothing


Actual Hockey Trade:

Mantha for Hanafin.


I don't see the Wings trading Stecher, Brome or Djoos. Expecting Merrill & Bernier resigned after ED, even if traded. Also unless we're doing an actual hockey trade for 2C/Top4 LD, I don't see us moving: Ras/Hirose/Smith/Svech as throw-ins.


Hot Takes:
Pens trade for a vet G, lose in Rd.1 again.
Taylor Hall is traded (not so hot take).
MTL implodes & misses PO's.
ANA moves Cam Fowler
AZ moves Hjalmarsson & Goligoski. keep OEL & Demers.

List your expectations, league-wide trade predictions, hot takes, trade ideas etc.
Expected Return/Best Case/Worst Case

Click to read more...

 

[Gniwder]

We need a 2026 7th round pick so Kris can draft his daughter.

 

[DetroitRed]

Exploring the possibilities of getting a first...

I wasn't thinking of a possibility of getting a 1st for Ryan. He's been really good for us, better than I expected. But I guess the question is whether his play convinced other teams that he's worth it.

I had been thinking that Bernier could be worth a first, but I wasn't sure that the team would want to trade him.

As for LfGd, he's become a great face-off man. He pretty much always was a good penalty killer. Do you think Vegas would still pass on him in an expansion draft? It seems hard to fathom that a guy who could be worth a 1st would get passed over when you could get him for nothing back then. Especially when Vegas selected another player because he's younger than Luke and Luke's even older now.

The possibility that I like is Mantha, who you have listed under 'trades.' I think they might be able to trade Manth for a 1st even though he's got some term left on his contract.

I guess if I'm honest though, I can't say for sure they are going to trade any of these guys and get a first in return 100%. I kinda feel like it's a bit less likely to happen than happen.

 

[Ghost of Ethan Hunt]

Exploring the possibilities of getting a first...

I wasn't thinking of a possibility of getting a 1st for Ryan. He's been really good for us, better than I expected. But I guess the question is whether his play convinced other teams that he's worth it.

I had been thinking that Bernier could be worth a first, but I wasn't sure that the team would want to trade him.

As for LfGd, he's become a great face-off man. He pretty much always was a good penalty killer. Do you think Vegas would still pass on him in an expansion draft? It seems hard to fathom that a guy who could be worth a 1st would get passed over when you could get him for nothing back then. Especially when Vegas selected another player because he's younger than Luke and Luke's even older now.

The possibility that I like is Mantha, who you have listed under 'trades.' I think they might be able to trade Manth for a 1st even though he's got some term left on his contract.

I guess if I'm honest though, I can't say for sure they are going to trade any of these guys and get a first in return 100%. I kinda feel like it's a bit less likely to happen than happen.

If this happens: "I expect 6+ traded (3 from 1st group, at least 2/4 from 2nd group +at least 1/7 from 3rd group)." we'd net ~3-4 2nds + 1-2 3rds, a 4th/5th & 1-2 B-level (C/LD/G) prospects in my guesstimation. Sounds like a lot, so maybe it ends up being 3 2nds, 1 3rd, 1 4th & 1 prospect...still not a bad haul.

 

[Gniwder]

Exploring the possibilities of getting a first...

I wasn't thinking of a possibility of getting a 1st for Ryan. He's been really good for us, better than I expected. But I guess the question is whether his play convinced other teams that he's worth it.

I had been thinking that Bernier could be worth a first, but I wasn't sure that the team would want to trade him.

As for LfGd, he's become a great face-off man. He pretty much always was a good penalty killer. Do you think Vegas would still pass on him in an expansion draft? It seems hard to fathom that a guy who could be worth a 1st would get passed over when you could get him for nothing back then. Especially when Vegas selected another player because he's younger than Luke and Luke's even older now.

The possibility that I like is Mantha, who you have listed under 'trades.' I think they might be able to trade Manth for a 1st even though he's got some term left on his contract.

I guess if I'm honest though, I can't say for sure they are going to trade any of these guys and get a first in return 100%. I kinda feel like it's a bit less likely to happen than happen.

I don't think any of them nets a first, but Kenny likes to trade down, so the team could package some picks and trade for his 1st.

 

[DetroitRed]

I don't think any of them nets a first, but Kenny likes to trade down, so the team could package some picks and trade for his 1st.

Yeah, I think I agree. If Stevie comes up with an extra first, I'll be elated, because I just think it's not gonna be easy to pull off. If he nets us more than one first, then I'm buying a new number 19 jersey.

The Kenny possibility... He might! That's one I didn't think of, but I don't remember him trading away a first in that fashion.

 

[Gniwder]

Yeah, I think I agree. If Stevie comes up with an extra first, I'll be elated, because I just think it's not gonna be easy to pull off. If he nets us more than one first, then I'm buying a new number 19 jersey.

The Kenny possibility... He might! That's one I didn't think of, but I don't remember him trading away a first in that fashion.

I know he did some later round trades, but I'm only gonna list the first rounders since that's relevant to the discussion.

2011 1st for two 2nds
2009 1st for 2nd and 3rd
2006 1st and 5th for two 2nd

and of course trading the Chychrun pick and Datsyuk for Cholo and Hronek

 

[DetroitRed]

I know he did some later round trades, but I'm only gonna list the first rounders since that's relevant to the discussion.

2011 1st for two 2nds
2009 1st for 2nd and 3rd
2006 1st and 5th for two 2nd

and of course trading the Chychrun pick and Datsyuk for Cholo and Hronek

Okay, I stand corrected, although they seem to stop about the time when Nil went to Dallas.

On other hand, maybe it's just something Holland does when he has a team that's winning.

 

[Gniwder]

Okay, I stand corrected, although they seem to stop about the time when Nil went to Dallas.

On other hand, maybe it's just something Holland does when he has a team that's winning.

He did it because he traded away picks, usually as a deadline trade and traded down to get more picks.

He's traded away this year's 2nd, 3rd, and 5th, which means he might trade down his 1st to get more picks. It be be funny if the Wings gave him back his 2nd for the 1st + other picks.

 

[Pavels Dog]

Will a decision on the draft be made prior to TDL?

If draft is held in the summer, I wonder if it might make teams more willing to trade picks for "sure things" since the draft could be such a crapshoot.
That could be a double-edged sword for us, making it easier to acquire picks but harder to actually know what you're doing in the draft.

 

[MBH]

Bernier: 2nd rounder
Glendening: 2nd or maybe a 3rd and 5th or something.
Ryan: Could be a 2nd, but probably more likely a 3rd or 4th.

 

[ManwithNoIdentity]

Hot takes:

re-sign Bernier and Ryan unless they offer a 2nd or more

Some people on this board seem to covet 3/4th round picks but they’re magic beans

 

[Mount Suribachi]

Some people on this board seem to covet 3/4th round picks but they’re magic beans

Not only are they magic beans, they're magic beans that take 4-5 years to sprout and grown to maturity (if they ever do). Only reason I would want to collect them would be to package them to trade up for 2nds and 1sts.

And even then a late first you're talking 3-4 years before they're likely to be on the big club and contributing. Mantha's first 20 goal season was in his D+4 year.

So if we do trade Mantha, I'd rather do it for a roster player to fill a need rather than another draft pick. At some point you have to stop trading players for picks. If you keep trading NHL players (no matter how frustrating) for a chance at a player in 4-5 years time you'll never make it out of the basement.

 

[Nut Upstrom]

Only two significant trades will be made. Luke and Bobby Ryan.
I think Luke (a late first) gets us a better return than Ryan.

Bobby has been great, but no one has increased his stock like LGD. Going to be many teams who are serious about winning a cup after this guy.

 

[pz29]

40 Days & Nights til the TDL. I look forward to SY navigating the trade waters netting numerous futures & hopefully some decent prospects. The TDL always feels like Christmas morning, whether you're a buyer or seller, you're getting something.

I expect 6+ traded (3 from 1st group, at least 2/4 from 2nd group +at least 1/7 from 3rd group).


Very likely moved (with/without retention)...

Expected Return/Best Case/Worst Case

Nemeth - 2nd/2nd+4th (Andy G.)/3rd
LGD - 2nd+ B-level C prospect/late 1st/3rd +5th. **Small Bidding war**
Ryan - 2nd+3rd/late 1st/ 3rd+4th


Somewhat/Fairly likely moved (with/without retention)

Merrill - 2nd/2nd+5th/3rd
Helm - 3rd/2nd/4th or lower
Stecher - 2nd/2nd+4th/3rd *(expires '22)
Bernier - 2nd+C/LD/G prospect / late 1st/ 3rd+6th **potential small bidding war**


Hope we can move them for something (with retention)

Djoos 5th /4th /6th or 7th or nothing
Erne 5th /4th /6th or 7th or nothing
Filppula 4th /3rd / 6th or 7th or nothing
Gagner 5th /4th / 6th or 7th or nothing
Brome 5th /4th / 6th or 7th or nothing
Staal 3rd/3rd+5th/6th or 7th or nothing
Biega 7th/ 6th in 2025 / less than nothing


Actual Hockey Trade:

Mantha for Hanafin.


I don't see the Wings trading Stecher, Brome or Djoos. Expecting Merrill & Bernier resigned after ED, even if traded. Also unless we're doing an actual hockey trade for 2C/Top4 LD, I don't see us moving: Ras/Hirose/Smith/Svech as throw-ins.


Hot Takes:
Pens trade for a vet G, lose in Rd.1 again.
Taylor Hall is traded (not so hot take).
MTL implodes & misses PO's.
ANA moves Cam Fowler
AZ moves Hjalmarsson & Goligoski. keep OEL & Demers.

List your expectations, league-wide trade predictions, hot takes, trade ideas etc.
Expected Return/Best Case/Worst Case

An honest question: what is the point of trading virtually everyone away and starting from zero again? Please provide more specific answers and opinions than "we are rebuilding" and "we are not good enough." If you keep trading away anyone with any value, you will be rebuilding forever and you will never be "good enough."

 

[Henkka]

These late 1sts are pipe dreams for any rentals.

 

[Henkka]

An honest question: what is the point of trading virtually everyone away and starting from zero again? Please provide more specific answers and opinions than "we are rebuilding" and "we are not good enough." If you keep trading away anyone with any value, you will be rebuilding forever and you will never be "good enough."

There's no point.

Oldest UFAs can go but not everybody.

We have good enough depth talent just waiting Elite talent like Seider + Raymond + hopefully some strong center from 2021/2022 draft to arrive.

Elite talent will rise us on the top and our current guys (all under 27 aged) can be that supporting cast.

We just need 1st liners, who will push our current 1st liners to 2nd line, and they will push our current 2nd liners to 3rd line etc etc. No one would be playing over their head anymore. And hopefully, draft so well that we have too much talent like Tampa currently has had. Then it's easy to make trades.

And when there's no more dead caphits and we push against the cap, this team will be contender.

 

[ManwithNoIdentity]

An honest question: what is the point of trading virtually everyone away and starting from zero again? Please provide more specific answers and opinions than "we are rebuilding" and "we are not good enough." If you keep trading away anyone with any value, you will be rebuilding forever and you will never be "good enough."

This is exactly what I’m thinking too. Do we just keep recouping draft picks that turn out to be people that get waved or traded for 6th round picks?

 

[Hoog]

While investigating the needs to of teams, I came across an interesting thought on a Penguins site. The article said that a trade for Ryan and Glendening would fill their needs. They didn't put what they would give for that trade......so what do you think? Their first rounder plus a 4/5th? Maybe try to steal their top prospect in Sam Poulin? or maybe a 2nd and two prospects from this list: Nathan Legare, Jan Drozg, Valtteri Puustinen, and one of the goalies: Joel Blomqvist, Emil Larmi, Calle Clang.

 

[Ghost of Ethan Hunt]

An honest question: what is the point of trading virtually everyone away and starting from zero again? Please provide more specific answers and opinions than "we are rebuilding" and "we are not good enough." If you keep trading away anyone with any value, you will be rebuilding forever and you will never be "good enough."

My trade suggestions Do Not include "virtually everyone & starting from zero"...re-read it if you need to. They're either old UFA's/4thliners, a couple of 3rd liners & 3rd pairing D or F/D tweeners at best etc. Only Ryan is top6 (barely) F. I'd like to re-sign Bernier, Merrill after ED, also protect Stecher as stated earlier. (also assuming Namestnikov, Smith, Ras are protected.)


If roster churn bothers you, you're not gonna like the next 1-2+ yrs. Ken Holland used to get so enthralled with his roster (not saying you are), he'd retread them later . SY is the opposite of that & that's a great thing. He has the foresight & cojones to make small incremental moves, kinda like he did this offseason & now we're mid-pack & better at 5on5. Who would've thought we'd be that much better at 5on5 ?? Hardly anybody, but maybe a few advanced analytics dudes.


Lastly, we're bringing in more & more youth, so the Filippula's of the world are beyond expired & are barely a band-aid at this point. Certainly past their best-buy dates. If anything I'm for shedding mostly dead weight & fringe players & simultaneously netting draft picks, the BitCoin of NHL GM's. This is what good GM's do.

 

[Killerjas]

Ryan for 2nd round pick
Glendening for a 3rd round pick

 

[Hockeyfannnn91]

These late 1sts are pipe dreams for any rentals.

Let us dream man , just let us dream

 

[Hockeyfannnn91]

Glendening 50 % to montreal for their 2021 2nd or
Glendening 50% to vegas for nj’s 2021 2nd and nosek(been a healthy scratch,benched and played 12 of 19 games & gotta make the money work)

Or replace nosek with holden but since he’s got an extra year id want like a 5th added on)

Both teams are at the lower end of face off %

 

[Hockeyfannnn91]

Always harder with more names involved so here come the backlash

Mantha , bernier, 2021 vegas 3rd

To carolina

Jarvis,drury,bean,reimer

Carolina upgrade their goaltening for the playoffs , get a pick in the deal for throwing In bean who they risk losing to seattle and add mantha on the top line to play with aho and hoping to go for a long playoff run

wings get some young pieces to help with the rebuild




Or mantha, glendening 50% and merrill to montreal for

Byron
Armia
Caufield
2022 1st
2021 hawks 3rd

Bergevin feels the heat and goes for the big deal , gets the local kid locked in for 3 more yrs and the #1 faceoff guy (mtl near the bottom of the league) and add merrill for playoff depth . Gets rid of 2 more yrs of byron’s cap hit in the process as well inconsistent armia

Wings add caufield for the rebuild and hope he can be a piece of the future, yzerman hopes the 2022 1st turns into a stutzle pick like the sens got with the karlsson deal

 

[Hatter of the Beach]

I know he did some later round trades, but I'm only gonna list the first rounders since that's relevant to the discussion.

2011 1st for two 2nds
2009 1st for 2nd and 3rd
2006 1st and 5th for two 2nd

and of course trading the Chychrun pick and Datsyuk for Cholo and Hronek

18th to San Jose for the 20th (Mantha) and our extra 2nd rounder pick that became Bertuzzi