GDT: Trades & Free Agency

[LeafParade]

What’s his connection to Toronto?

I feel like we kind of need to start mentally preparing for a declining Morgan Rielly. Obviously money is an issue but that blueline really could use 2 guys better than Rielly. He’s just not a dependable number one and struggles with different aspects of the game at different times.

His Uncle was a Leaf!
I will ignore the part about him growing up in Florida and his father playing for 4 NHL Teams who were not Toronto

 

[Budz]

At this point - before the playoffs start my opinion is:

You lock up Domi cheap long term.
You trade Marner for a RD.

 

[Menzinger]

I'm looking at the perspective that they have LW's McMann and Knies already under contract, and Robertson as an RFA plus Grebyonkin (sp?) possibly signing for next season to come across too....all top 9 LW's. Holmberg also plays LW when not up the middle. That's technically 5 top-9 LW's, with RFA's Dewar and Gregor battling for the 4th line LW. That's already 7 LW's

I think no matter what, only one of Bert or Ernie will be resigned - at most. Both are 29 and will be on the wrong side of 30 in less than a year.

And it's becoming obvious that a trade will most likely happen to ease the LW logjam.

I can see a scenario where Robertson is traded at the draft. I think he's shown enough at the NHL level that other teams will be interested (he can clearly score) and he hasn't completely gotten Keefea trust.

For the record I do hope that doesn't happen - I'm a Robertson fan and can see him growing with the team. It will come down to if he's a regular in the playoffs

 

[LaPlante94]

I agree, but that's a different argument than how it actually ended up affecting our record.

You did. That's what our pace would have been if 6 more of Samsonov's games were wins. It's unrealistic.

That wasn't the point. They've been a better team than us this year, and yet in front of runaway Vezina goaltending, they have a worse record than us in front of Samsonov. Overall goaltending impacts can be distributed in such a way that the impact on record isn't as simple as let's just add on 12 points and call it a day.

If Campbell and Mrazek performed like they did the year prior, at the same ratio of games that they played, we would have had spectacular +37.4 GSAx goaltending.
I'm not really sure how you think it's a different situation than Samsonov.

There were 9 teams with 50+ wins. This year there are 8. The difference? The Leafs...

That's not true. Just because your team loses in the playoffs, it doesn't mean all your players were worthless and didn't provide anything.

2019-2023, our PK% was higher in the playoffs relative to the regular season, despite facing a higher average quality of opponents.

I don't think that's true since we got a lot of OT points because the offence having to make up for him not making saves. He gave up 4+ goals in like 15 of his starts and we lost like 6 of them in OT and won only like 4 of them with 1 being in OT. Guy started 40 games and 16 of them went to OT/SO and I think 2 of them he only played like 15 mins or less after giving up 3+ goals. This 142 point pace you claim we'd be on seems a bit off since many of those wins we deserved we only got 1 point and I'm sure there's a few starts where he cost us 2 points since we didn't even make it to OT. So I'd say around 120 is a bit more realistic in where we could've been. Is this 142 point pace based on Samsonov playing 60+ games or something? Boston put up 135 last year with 2 goalies putting up elite numbers. You sure you didn't mean 124?

Well, lets look at that then. Hellebuyck started 60 games to Samsonovs 40. Won 37 games to Samsonovs 23. Quality starts has Hellebuyck at 40 out of his 60 games which was a .667 quality start percentage compared to Samsonovs 19 out of his 40 starts which put him at .475 quality starts percentage. Winnipegs backup goalies also played much better than ours and tbh Jones was the only goalie on our team who had over 50% of his starts considered as quality ones which is crazy because he was signed to be a 3rd string goalie and lucked out that he got to start 19 games. So yes, I think if Hellebuyck had our offence in front of him our team would be winning the division and presidents.

Well, that previous year was a covid bubble year where we played just the Canadian teams and I'd say Edmonton was the only offensive threat that season so it was probably much easier for them to play much better playing against. I guess you can throw Winnipeg into that too. So I think that is a completely different situation.

There's only 7 this year but it's only 1 off so who cares. Another huge differet between those 2 seasons is in that 21/22 season 11 teams couldn't even get to the 35 win mark compared to only 6 this season. Expansion year then so I guess a lot of teams sucked or they just took longer to re adjust to life after covid. Who knows, weird season.

We kept losing in the playoffs and we kept losing with those same players. So yeah, I think they were useless.

I mean that isn't really true though right. If you include the context then it makes much more sense, especially why you added the 2019/20 and 2020/21 seasons. 2019 we play Columbus in a best of 5 series. Columbus had a 16.4% PP% during the regular season putting them in the bottom 5 of the league for PP%. During the playoffs Columbus had a 8.8% power play percentage in 10 games. Our PK was 100% while being on the kill 14 times. 2020/21 season we play Montreal who was another team in the bottom half of the league with a 19.2 power play %. during the regular season. During the playoffs we had a 84.2 penalty kill % playing against that powerplay for 7 games. Now we get to the tougher teams and not just the teams that made it in because of covid most likely. We play TB who obviously has a top 10 PP at like 23% during the regular season and our PK% in the playoffs drops down to 78.8%. Season after that which would be last season we play the same team that has a top 3 powerplay in the mid 20% during the regular season and then during the playoffs our PK drops even lower to 73.3%. So yeah, you take out those 2 covid years against powerplays that aren't very good and our PK% the last 2 playoffs has been 76.2%.

 

[Legion34]

Need 2 D. A 3 c and a goalie for next year.
Domi can’t do it.

 

[Kiwi]

Need 2 D. A 3 c and a goalie for next year.
Domi can’t do it.

That's an expensive list if you're going UFA, I think you have to trade for a cheap solution to at least one of those holes, preferably two

Then dip into UFA

 

[SprDaVE]

Need 2 D. A 3 c and a goalie for next year.
Domi can’t do it.

That's an expensive list if you're going UFA, I think you have to trade for a cheap solution to at least one of those holes, preferably two

Then dip into UFA

We'll see how the post-season goes. You can probably get away with 1 really good (expensive) RHD and a depth D to replace Giordano/whoever, which is fairly inexpensive.

I do agree though that finding a center to put in that 3rd spot would something in big need. I think Wennberg or Stephenson would be expensive targets but it could fit and they'd be really good. Maybe someone like Travis Boyd would be a good fit as well and a lot less expensive, he's been a 35-40 point player for awhile. A trade is probably more likely but it won't be easy to find a very good player for the picks/prospects we have to offer.

 

[Kiwi]

We'll see how the post-season goes. You can probably get away with 1 really good (expensive) RHD and a depth D to replace Giordano/whoever, which is fairly inexpensive.

I do agree though that finding a center to put in that 3rd spot would something in big need. I think Wennberg or Stephenson would be expensive targets but it could fit and they'd be really good. Maybe someone like Travis Boyd would be a good fit as well and a lot less expensive, he's been a 35-40 point player for awhile. A trade is probably more likely but it won't be easy to find a very good player for the picks/prospects we have to offer.

I think the big question is do we need two top 4D or just the one? A top 4D and a Benoit type depth guy is very doable but should we be aiming higher and trying to get two guys just in case Liljegren can't step into that type of role and we're left with MO and McCabe

The center thing is a real issue, we need somebody that can kick in offensively if we're keeping Kampf, or do you try to move Kampf, fill his role with Holmberg or somebody cheap and use the money going after a really good 3C

 

[TMLAM34]

A lot will depend on how Liljegren preforms against the Bruins, IMO. If he’s getting physically manhandled and making mistakes out there, I wouldn’t be surprised if Tre looks to move on from him this off-season. If he can hold his ground and Edmundson plays with that physical edge and provides good play on the PK, I wouldn’t mind re-signing both and then looking to only add one top four dman to play alongside Rielly.

Rielly - ________
Benoit - McCabe
Edmundson - Liljegren

 

[TheShape]

I think the big question is do we need two top 4D or just the one? A top 4D and a Benoit type depth guy is very doable but should we be aiming higher and trying to get two guys just in case Liljegren can't step into that type of role and we're left with MO and McCabe

The center thing is a real issue, we need somebody that can kick in offensively if we're keeping Kampf, or do you try to move Kampf, fill his role with Holmberg or somebody cheap and use the money going after a really good 3C

We need two legit top 4D imo, but that's a tall ask considering G is also a priority. We'll definitely find a babysitter for Rielly in UFA I would think. If Liljegren tops out as a really good 3rd pair guy then I am fine with that, as long as he's paid accordingly. If he wants top 4 money, you have to think Tre moves him.

I don't see how Wennberg will be expensive, he doesn't have the production to command big dollars, he would make a perfect 3C for Willy, re-sign Domi and keep him with Matthews, Marner carries Tavares for one last year. LW picks itself Knies, Robertson, McMann etc. Kampf should be an automatic cap casualty, we have internal options in Holmberg and Dewar, 2.75m for a 4C is too rich.

 

[TMLAM34]

We need two legit top 4D imo, but that's a tall ask considering G is also a priority. We'll definitely find a babysitter for Rielly in UFA I would think. If Liljegren tops out as a really good 3rd pair guy then I am fine with that, as long as he's paid accordingly. If he wants top 4 money, you have to think Tre moves him.

I don't see how Wennberg will be expensive, he doesn't have the production to command big dollars, he would make a perfect 3C for Willy, re-sign Domi and keep him with Matthews, Marner carries Tavares for one last year. LW picks itself Knies, Robertson, McMann etc. Kampf should be an automatic cap casualty, we have internal options in Holmberg and Dewar, 2.75m for a 4C is too rich.

Wennberg would be a perfect addition IMO. Big centerman who plays a sound two-way game and can PK. He’d fit really nicely in between Knies and Nylander IMO. I don’t see him making less than his current deal though. IMO he’s a 3.5 million center but he’ll probably get 4.5 in free agency.

 

[TheShape]

Wennberg would be a perfect addition IMO. Big centerman who plays a sound two-way game and can PK. He’d fit really nicely in between Knies and Nylander IMO. I don’t see him making less than his current deal though. IMO he’s a 3.5 million center but he’ll probably get 4.5 in free agency.

Wennberg is a nice addition, but one thing to keep in mind is a year from now there's a bit of a logjam at 3C if we're working under the assumption that Tavares will be re-signed. There's no way JT is a consistent top 6 player at 34-35 with the way he's trending.

 

[Dekes For Days]

This 142 point pace you claim we'd be on seems a bit off since many of those wins we deserved we only got 1 point and I'm sure there's a few starts where he cost us 2 points since we didn't even make it to OT. So I'd say around 120 is a bit more realistic in where we could've been. Is this 142 point pace based on Samsonov playing 60+ games or something?

We had a winning record in OT/SO this year, and went 0.500 in games Samsonov allowed 4+ goals. Over an extended period of time, or distributed differently, bad goaltending can have significant impacts on a record, but the impacts on our record this year just aren't there. Last year, we lost out on 15 potential points in the games Samsonov allowed 4+ goals. This year, we lost out on 14 potential points in the games Samsonov allowed 4+ goals. The 142 point pace is the pace we would have in front of Samsonov if Samsonov won 6 more of his games like you said. If we had a 120 point pace in front of Samsonov, the team overall would only get an extra 1-2 points, because we're already at a 117 point pace with him.

Hellebuyck started 60 games to Samsonovs 40. Won 37 games to Samsonovs 23. Quality starts has Hellebuyck at 40 out of his 60 games which was a .667 quality start percentage compared to Samsonovs 19 out of his 40 starts which put him at .475 quality starts percentage.

The "quality starts" stat is pretty bad, and this isn't really the point. The point is that record and overall goaltending impacts from a goalie don't perfectly match, especially in smaller samples. You can have the runaway best goalie in the league, and with them, still pace below your team record that year. You can have objectively poor goaltending, and with them, still pace well above your team record that year. We actually have a better record with Samsonov this year than last year, despite the team in front being worse.

Well, that previous year was a covid bubble year where we played just the Canadian teams and I'd say Edmonton was the only offensive threat that season so it was probably much easier for them to play much better playing against. I guess you can throw Winnipeg into that too. So I think that is a completely different situation.

The scoring in our division was not meaningfully different from the scoring in other divisions, and one of the goalies wasn't even in that division.
It's the same good one year, poor the next. The situation is not different.

Another huge differet between those 2 seasons is in that 21/22 season 11 teams couldn't even get to the 35 win mark compared to only 6 this season.

You're just picking arbitrary marks though. If we make that mark 40 wins instead, 15 didn't reach it this year, compared to 14 in 2021-2022. There were plenty of bad teams to beat up on this year. We literally have the 2nd worst team in cap era history this year, and it's the least points to make the Eastern conference playoffs since 2009-2010. We ranked 4th in 2021-2022. This year we ranked 10th. So even relative to the rest of the league, we did worse.

We kept losing in the playoffs and we kept losing with those same players. So yeah, I think they were useless.

The players changed up quite a bit, and a team losing in the playoffs doesn't make your players useless.

I mean that isn't really true though right.

It is true. We went from 80.3% in the regular season to 81.3% in the playoffs against tougher competition. Why would we not look at 2020 and 2021? Why dismiss a 100% PK when claiming that our PK has been bad in the playoffs? Also, it's kind of misleading to call the 17th ranked PP "bottom half of the league".

Columbus' PP in 2020 did worse against us than they did in the regular season.
Montreal's PP in 2021 did worse against us than they did in the regular season.
Tampa's PP in 2022 did worse against us than they did in the regular season.
Tampa's PP in 2023 did worse against us than they did in the regular season.

Florida is the only team since 2019 to outpace their regular season PP% against us, and the difference between them being worse or better was 1 goal.

 

[Dekes For Days]

I can see a scenario where Robertson is traded at the draft. I think he's shown enough at the NHL level that other teams will be interested (he can clearly score) and he hasn't completely gotten Keefea trust. For the record I do hope that doesn't happen - I'm a Robertson fan and can see him growing with the team. It will come down to if he's a regular in the playoffs

I really hope we don't throw away Robertson. I'm scared we will.
Shooting ability like that doesn't just come around every day, and while he's no defensive star yet, the other aspects of his game are pretty underrated.
I'm hoping that injuries allow him a spot to start the playoffs, and he makes it so we can't take him out.

 

[LeafSteel]

Wennberg is a nice addition, but one thing to keep in mind is a year from now there's a bit of a logjam at 3C if we're working under the assumption that Tavares will be re-signed. There's no way JT is a consistent top 6 player at 34-35 with the way he's trending.

Agree with this.

I think you need to be looking a 2C, as Tavares even if resigned needs to be dropped in the lineup.

Add to it our prospects for Minten and Cowan, and 2C is the obvious need.

A player to compliment Nylander, who can skate with him, who can cover defensively for him, and can help create some space for him on the ice.

Who would that be?

 

[aingefan]

We'll see how the post-season goes. You can probably get away with 1 really good (expensive) RHD and a depth D to replace Giordano/whoever, which is fairly inexpensive.

I do agree though that finding a center to put in that 3rd spot would something in big need. I think Wennberg or Stephenson would be expensive targets but it could fit and they'd be really good. Maybe someone like Travis Boyd would be a good fit as well and a lot less expensive, he's been a 35-40 point player for awhile. A trade is probably more likely but it won't be easy to find a very good player for the picks/prospects we have to offer.

I’m more bullish on Pontus than most, I’m pretty confident he can be a third line fixture, given the whole body of his developmental path, plus his skill set and smarts.
He’s been moved up n down the lineup all year but showed plenty of skill with offensive linemates. I think he can settle into the 3C role with sone commitment there.
Does anyone else think that the long-term plan is Willy at C post-Tavares?

 

[SprDaVE]

I’m more bullish on Pontus than most, I’m pretty confident he can be a third line fixture, given the whole body of his developmental path, plus his skill set and smarts.
He’s been moved up n down the lineup all year but showed plenty of skill with offensive linemates. I think he can settle into the 3C role with sone commitment there.
Does anyone else think that the long-term plan is Willy at C post-Tavares?

Im a fan of Holmberg so I'd be fine with him there.

 

[ULF_55]

I can see a scenario where Robertson is traded at the draft. I think he's shown enough at the NHL level that other teams will be interested (he can clearly score) and he hasn't completely gotten Keefea trust.

For the record I do hope that doesn't happen - I'm a Robertson fan and can see him growing with the team. It will come down to if he's a regular in the playoffs

I'm not sold on Robertson's overall game.

However, Keefe likely won't be back, unless he has a long run in the playoffs, and odds are they're out in the first round.

 

[Dreakmur]

A lot will depend on how Liljegren preforms against the Bruins, IMO. If he’s getting physically manhandled and making mistakes out there, I wouldn’t be surprised if Tre looks to move on from him this off-season. If he can hold his ground and Edmundson plays with that physical edge and provides good play on the PK, I wouldn’t mind re-signing both and then looking to only add one top four dman to play alongside Rielly.

Rielly - ________
Benoit - McCabe
Edmundson - Liljegren

A good blueline would have Benoit-McCabe as the 3rd pairing.

 

[ULF_55]

A lot will depend on how Liljegren preforms against the Bruins, IMO. If he’s getting physically manhandled and making mistakes out there, I wouldn’t be surprised if Tre looks to move on from him this off-season. If he can hold his ground and Edmundson plays with that physical edge and provides good play on the PK, I wouldn’t mind re-signing both and then looking to only add one top four dman to play alongside Rielly.

Rielly - ________
Benoit - McCabe
Edmundson - Liljegren

Edmundson makes 3.5mm on his current contract. Leafs have him with retention.

He will be 31 in June, and, IMO, he will not be taking a discount.

Can Leafs afford 4.5mm for Edmundson, on the 3rd. pairing and still get a 1st. pairing defender?

 

[Dekes For Days]

I’m more bullish on Pontus than most, I’m pretty confident he can be a third line fixture, given the whole body of his developmental path, plus his skill set and smarts.
He’s been moved up n down the lineup all year but showed plenty of skill with offensive linemates. I think he can settle into the 3C role with sone commitment there.
Does anyone else think that the long-term plan is Willy at C post-Tavares?

I really like Holmberg. I think he could develop into an option, but I don't know if he'd be ready for full-time 3C duties next year.
I really hope our plan isn't Nylander at center. His playstyle works way better as a winger.

 

[LeafParade]

I really like Holmberg. I think he could develop into an option, but I don't know if he'd be ready for full-time 3C duties next year.
I really hope our plan isn't Nylander at center. His playstyle works way better as a winger.

It looks like Holmberg will be the 3c this playoffs. His play in these playoffs will probably determine what happens this summer. If he plays the part of the 3c effectively in the playoffs, then you probably pencil him in there for next season and roll with it for now.

 

[TheShape]

Agree with this.

I think you need to be looking a 2C, as Tavares even if resigned needs to be dropped in the lineup.

Add to it our prospects for Minten and Cowan, and 2C is the obvious need.

A player to compliment Nylander, who can skate with him, who can cover defensively for him, and can help create some space for him on the ice.

Who would that be?

Ideally someone like Elias Lindholm takes a one year bet on himself deal, that way we're not locked down to another aging C once Tavares' 11m comes off the books. Matt Duchene is out there, but he'll want term and I highly doubt he'd come here anyway. I don't see any longterm options with this UFA pool. My guess is 3C will be interchangeable again next season.

 

[TMLAM34]

Edmundson makes 3.5mm on his current contract. Leafs have him with retention.

He will be 31 in June, and, IMO, he will not be taking a discount.

Can Leafs afford 4.5mm for Edmundson, on the 3rd. pairing and still get a 1st. pairing defender?

I don’t think any contender is giving Edmundson 4.5 million. I can see Edmundson willing to take a bit of a discount in order to sign a long term deal, something around 3 million per on a 4 year deal with limit NTC. I also only do this if him and Liljegren work really well together.

Rielly (7.5) - ________
Benoit (1.35) - McCabe (2)
Edmundson (3) - Liljegren (2.5)

I’d then aim for Roy, 5.5 x 5 type deal.

 

[aingefan]

Im a fan of Holmberg so I'd be fine with him there.

I’m hopeful that Homberg/Nylander form 2/3 of a line that can be the second line in 25/26.
If Lindholm was willing to take 5/5.5 maybe he’s one of the big buys this off-season and that future issue box is ticked?