Speculation: Trade and Free Agency Talk XLVI

[Bazeek]

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[thestonedkoala]

I'm still wary about Trochek. If it's just straight up Trochek for Dumba, that may be a decent deal.

 

[Bazeek]

I'm still wary about Trochek. If it's just straight up Trochek for Dumba, that may be a decent deal.

I think the chances of Carolina dealing players like Trocheck and Necas are vanishingly low. I assume the goal is to keep what they have going more or less intact for the next few years, not shake things up.

 

[thestonedkoala]

I think the chances of Carolina dealing players like Trocheck and Necas are vanishingly low. I assume the goal is to keep what they have going more or less intact for the next few years, not shake things up.

I agree; and they have some cap space next season (27.7). The biggest free agent they'll need to sign is Svechnikov, though they do have depth to worry about. And Ned will need a new contract. Trocheck is a free agent after next season as well.

 

[GuerinUp]

Ya know, the more i think about it, the more i feel like dumba might take a team friendly deal after his contract expires if we find a way to keep him around (at least until suters deal is gone). Just seems like he really wants to be here and is commited to this team winning. I really wish we could find a way to trade spurg

 

[MNNumbers]

I'm not sure I am totally ready to give up on spurge. I don't like his contract. But, he's only had one mediocre season. That's this past one. And, this COVID, I wonder how much it is appropriate to give someone a pass for one bad year in the midst of the pandemic.

 

[Bazeek]

I'm not sure I am totally ready to give up on spurge. I don't like his contract. But, he's only had one mediocre season. That's this past one. And, this COVID, I wonder how much it is appropriate to give someone a pass for one bad year in the midst of the pandemic.

I thought Spurgeon looked more like himself in the second half of the season. Not a fan of the contract but it wouldn't be a big deal if we didn't already have $7.5m locked into an older defenseman with 4 more years left. And I don't have a huge problem with Suter either, but these things add up. The diminishing returns on big UFA contracts are severe.

There's been a lot of talk about Parise but I do wonder what the project is with Suter as well. I don't think he'll be traded or bought out, but do we still think he plays out his contract? I thought he still looked good this year, but he did look slower and it's hard not to assume the ankle injury is a factor there. I wonder what the chances of him legitimately ending up on LTIR for the last year or two of his deal are... hard thing to plan around, though.

 

[57special]

I think we are all trying to ignore Suter's decline, and hoping against hope that it is a gradual one rather than the fall off a cliff type that Parise has had. He is still a smart player, and plays a position where judgement and positioning can take you a long way. The main thing is that he knows what his failings are, and adjust his game accordingly.

He still is a vg Dmen, IMO, and plays the strongest of our top 4.

 

[MNNumbers]

The big question is: What's the plan for Parise? Especially given that it's a tight market for cap, and that buying him out only saves about 5M in cap for one year, and 1M for another year. That's backwards from what you would like.

Parise's contract, coupled with the uncertainty surrounding Rossi, is the reason I keep thinking that a serviceable vet center on a one- or two- year contract would be nice right now.

 

[AKL]

The big question is: What's the plan for Parise? Especially given that it's a tight market for cap, and that buying him out only saves about 5M in cap for one year, and 1M for another year. That's backwards from what you would like.

Parise's contract, coupled with the uncertainty surrounding Rossi, is the reason I keep thinking that a serviceable vet center on a one- or two- year contract would be nice right now.

I think, more or less, the Parise, Suter contracts, and to a lesser extent the Spurgeon and Zuccarello contracts, are the main reason why it doesn't make sense to go out and acquire guys like Reinhart or Monahan. Besides the assets you'd have to give up to get them, I think you're better off using the sunset period of the Parise and Suter contracts to keep acquiring prospects and picks and building through the draft, and then when you get the cap relief from some of those big contracts, that's when you can go out and start looking at trading some assets for more in their prime players, or signing free agents.

 

[nickschultzfan]

The big question is: What's the plan for Parise? Especially given that it's a tight market for cap, and that buying him out only saves about 5M in cap for one year, and 1M for another year. That's backwards from what you would like.

Parise's contract, coupled with the uncertainty surrounding Rossi, is the reason I keep thinking that a serviceable vet center on a one- or two- year contract would be nice right now.

Guerin will try to trade him, and once unsuccessful, he will buy him out. Extra cap next year and the following is nice, but it will be more about opening up a roster spot for a young player (e.g. Boldy) and to remove a distraction from the locker room.

But I think it is worth trying to get a deal together to send a 1st and Soucy to Seattle to take Parise in the expansion draft, and convince Parise that is his best path to playing better minutes for the next couple of seasons.

 

[thestonedkoala]

He still is a vg Dmen, IMO, and plays the strongest of our top 4.

Which is why I think if you can get him to waive his NMC, you move him now. Out of all the defensemen, Suter is probably the one that the Wild should look at moving first outside of Dumba and Soucy due to the expansion draft, if they can. While consistency is great, especially during the regular season, this group has failed to really perform in the playoffs. They are also undersized and they don't have anyone outside of O'Rourke and maybe Hunt (he's a longer shot than O'Rourke) that plays a physical type of game. I get the positioning, I get the smarts - but they get exposed in the playoffs.

I think everyone wanted Dumba to be an elite offensive defenseman that compliments the more defensive-defenseman or two-way defensemen of Spurgeon, Suter and Brodin, but unfortunately that hasn't happened. Not certain if Addison or Menell will be that elite offensive defenseman.

I honestly believe that a shake up in the top 4, a massive one, would be good for the team. I mean look at the shake up in the top 6 last year; Koivu and Staal are gone, Donato was traded and before that Granlund, Coyle and el Nino were moved. Zucker is gone. There has been a significant amount of movement at the forwards, but only the bottom pairing defensemen have been moved around. The issue is, they can't move Spurgeon or Brodin or Suter - so...what do they do? Hope that after 7+ years that they start playing more physical in the playoffs? Start showing more signs of offense?

 

[Bazeek]

Which is why I think if you can get him to waive his NMC, you move him now. Out of all the defensemen, Suter is probably the one that the Wild should look at moving first outside of Dumba and Soucy due to the expansion draft, if they can. While consistency is great, especially during the regular season, this group has failed to really perform in the playoffs. They are also undersized and they don't have anyone outside of O'Rourke and maybe Hunt (he's a longer shot than O'Rourke) that plays a physical type of game. I get the positioning, I get the smarts - but they get exposed in the playoffs.

I think everyone wanted Dumba to be an elite offensive defenseman that compliments the more defensive-defenseman or two-way defensemen of Spurgeon, Suter and Brodin, but unfortunately that hasn't happened. Not certain if Addison or Menell will be that elite offensive defenseman.

I honestly believe that a shake up in the top 4, a massive one, would be good for the team. I mean look at the shake up in the top 6 last year; Koivu and Staal are gone, Donato was traded and before that Granlund, Coyle and el Nino were moved. Zucker is gone. There has been a significant amount of movement at the forwards, but only the bottom pairing defensemen have been moved around. The issue is, they can't move Spurgeon or Brodin or Suter - so...what do they do? Hope that after 7+ years that they start playing more physical in the playoffs? Start showing more signs of offense?

The main problem with trading Suter is that we probably don't make it past the first "if" in this post. Granted I was surprised when Parise waived for the Islanders, but of the two he always seemed like the more likely to chase a Cup somewhere. Even that took a pretty specific set of circumstances and it didn't result in a trade.

With Suter it doesn't even seem worth thinking about.

 

[MuckOG]

Which is why I think if you can get him to waive his NMC, you move him now. Out of all the defensemen, Suter is probably the one that the Wild should look at moving first outside of Dumba and Soucy due to the expansion draft, if they can. While consistency is great, especially during the regular season, this group has failed to really perform in the playoffs. They are also undersized and they don't have anyone outside of O'Rourke and maybe Hunt (he's a longer shot than O'Rourke) that plays a physical type of game. I get the positioning, I get the smarts - but they get exposed in the playoffs.

I think everyone wanted Dumba to be an elite offensive defenseman that compliments the more defensive-defenseman or two-way defensemen of Spurgeon, Suter and Brodin, but unfortunately that hasn't happened. Not certain if Addison or Menell will be that elite offensive defenseman.

I honestly believe that a shake up in the top 4, a massive one, would be good for the team. I mean look at the shake up in the top 6 last year; Koivu and Staal are gone, Donato was traded and before that Granlund, Coyle and el Nino were moved. Zucker is gone. There has been a significant amount of movement at the forwards, but only the bottom pairing defensemen have been moved around. The issue is, they can't move Spurgeon or Brodin or Suter - so...what do they do? Hope that after 7+ years that they start playing more physical in the playoffs? Start showing more signs of offense?

There's a chance that Suter would waive his NMC for expansion because the chances of SEA selecting him would be remote....but I don't think he'll consider waiving his NMC so Guerin can trade him to whomever.

 

[AKL]

Apparently a Kings insider said the Kings don't really have much interest in Eichel



From the article:

When it comes to trades, there are two big fish mentioned most often on social media, Jack Eichel and Seth Jones.
In talking with several sources around the organization over the past few weeks, there just doesn’t appear to be much interest in Buffalo Sabres forward Jack Eichel. You can point to any number of different reasons why — the neck injury and the big contract (five more years at a $10M AAV, including four years of a No Movement Clause) certainly come up often — yet, in the end, it’s the acquisition cost that most likely kills any deal for the 24-year-old center. The Kings aren’t looking to trade Quinton Byfield, period. That alone could sour the Sabres. On top of that, LA’s other top of the food chain assets are being saved for what they feel is their eventual ‘big move,’ namely a defenseman.

Friedman confirmed that if he's reporting it, he's probably actually hearing it from a reliable source:



So not that Rossi is generally held in as high a regard as Byfield, but I would think this might, in a roundabout kind of way, tell us that Rossi doesn't have to be moved if Guerin is going after Eichel.

 

[57special]

I don't see that our D is a pressing problem. Down the road I'd like to see some size to augment guys like Addison, Menell, Spurgeon, but people get way too wound up about physicality. Sure, I'd like a 6'5", physical, smart dman with a huge shot and good offensive abilities, but there are only a handful of those guys in the league. Parayko, Hedman, Pietrangelo, Lindholm... guys like Chiarot and Edmundson will get exposed in the next series. Even Weber is a shadow of his former self.
The reality is that you can't get some big, dopey guy with slow feet that can't protect against speed in a league that is faster than it ever has been. If we loaded up on guys like Stoner who are big, strong, and can fight we'd have fans who would complain that they can't move, look silly defending, and kill plays when the puck is on their stick. We were doing ok until Soucy and Brodin got injured against the most ferocious forecheck in the league. I think that ROR will be a welcome addition in couple of years or so, because he I think he will have decent size, physicality, defensive acumen, and has some puck skills...those guys are hard to find. Everyone wants the next dman who scores a ton like Pionk, Hamilton or Barrie, then complain when these guys can't defend their position in the playoffs when the whistles get put away.

Bottom line that while a great new young dman would be great, our pressing need is for at least one, if not two C's. A lot of our defensive problems would go away if we had a guy like ROR (the STL one), or even JEE. An offensive C who can hold onto and distribute the puck intelligently rather than cough it up in transition would also make our D look much better, as would speed on the back check, and the forecheck, in the forward positions. Bonino, Rask, and Bjugstad ranged from below average to terribly slow, and the same guys + MoJo were less than careful to pretty bad with the puck. That puts your D in bad positions. I hope none of them are back.

 

[thestonedkoala]

The main problem with trading Suter is that we probably don't make it past the first "if" in this post. Granted I was surprised when Parise waived for the Islanders, but of the two he always seemed like the more likely to chase a Cup somewhere. Even that took a pretty specific set of circumstances and it didn't result in a trade.

I think what Evason did this year was smart with Suter, and I think decreasing his time in the regular season to rest him for the playoffs would be better. I liked that Evason cut Suter's time down pretty drastically. More so, we've had Suter since 12-13 and only gotten out of the 1st - what? Once? Twice? Not a good record. Suter has also been pretty disappointing in the playoffs.

There's a chance that Suter would waive his NMC for expansion because the chances of SEA selecting him would be remote....but I don't think he'll consider waiving his NMC so Guerin can trade him to whomever.

My biggest hope is that Suter does waive for Seattle, and that him and Guerin can have a discussion - because frankly, if he doesn't want to go to a contender, which the Wild maybe in a few years - when he's near the end of his contract, then I don't know what to say.

I don't see that our D is a pressing problem. Down the road I'd like to see some size to augment guys like Addison, Menell, Spurgeon, but people get way too wound up about physicality. Sure, I'd like a 6'5", physical, smart dman with a huge shot and good offensive abilities, but there are only a handful of those guys in the league. Parayko, Hedman, Pietrangelo, Lindholm... guys like Chiarot and Edmundson will get exposed in the next series. Even Weber is a shadow of his former self.

Pietrangelo and Hedman both won Cups and were the number 1 guys. I don't think it's necessarily you need a big bruising guy, but Spurgeon and Brodin seem to get rubbed out a lot. I think you need guys that aren't afraid to play a physical sort of game. Spurgeon, Brodin and Suter have never been really seen as physical guys. Brodin definitely is seen as a guy that limits shots by redirection, but physical forwards create problems for him.

One of the biggest issues that Fletcher, Fenton and Guerin have mentioned is getting the team to be more physical. We're not saying guys like Boogaard, but Vegas plays a pretty physical game from their forwards.

The reality is that you get some big, dopey guy with slow feet that can't protect against speed in a league that is faster than it ever has been.

I think that's a fair point, but those guys don't tend to get drafted high. I think you're right, we need guys that are speedy, which Suter isn't anymore. He's effective. Brodin is probably one of the better skating defensemen in the league, but honestly, he's pretty soft.

 

[57special]

The main problem with trading Suter is that we probably don't make it past the first "if" in this post. Granted I was surprised when Parise waived for the Islanders, but of the two he always seemed like the more likely to chase a Cup somewhere. Even that took a pretty specific set of circumstances and it didn't result in a trade.

With Suter it doesn't even seem worth thinking about.

Exactly. What's next, getting Spurgeon and Zuccarello to waive, then Brodin? These guys got those clauses in their contract for a reason. It's not like Suter is a bad Dman, either. He is still top 40-60, IMO. Not what he once was, but still good. I thought he was good during the playoffs.

 

[Bazeek]

Apparently a Kings insider said the Kings don't really have much interest in Eichel



From the article:



Friedman confirmed that if he's reporting it, he's probably actually hearing it from a reliable source:



So not that Rossi is generally held in as high a regard as Byfield, but I would think this might, in a roundabout kind of way, tell us that Rossi doesn't have to be moved if Guerin is going after Eichel.

That whole thread summarizing Friedman is interesting (though I haven't heard the actual interview). Assuming his information is good it sounds like:

• Eichel being traded is a near certainty. The idea that they'll just hold onto him of the offers aren't ridiculously high doesn't hold water.
• Teams are divided on what to do about his injury: some seem to agree with the team and others with the player. That seems like a major factor in determining potential landing spots.
• "People" (it isn't specified whether they're inside or outside the organization) are apparently telling Adams to get it done quickly, but he's holding back to try to create a market. That seems wise to me but again it indicates that the price will be set by the bidders and not by Buffalo setting some redline that must be crossed.

Putting all of that together makes me think this could end up looking a whole lot more like the O'Reilly trade than I'd been assuming.

 

[Bazeek]

I think what Evason did this year was smart with Suter, and I think decreasing his time in the regular season to rest him for the playoffs would be better. I liked that Evason cut Suter's time down pretty drastically. More so, we've had Suter since 12-13 and only gotten out of the 1st - what? Once? Twice? Not a good record. Suter has also been pretty disappointing in the playoffs.

Sure, though none of that changes the prospects of trading him. I agree that he needs to be handled like anyone else and played according to his performance and not his contract.

 

[2Pair]

I'm not sure I am totally ready to give up on spurge. I don't like his contract. But, he's only had one mediocre season. That's this past one. And, this COVID, I wonder how much it is appropriate to give someone a pass for one bad year in the midst of the pandemic.

Spurgeon has been a very good defenseman for this team for a number of years, but at no point in his career has he ever been worth what Guerin paid him. Not much chance that scenario changes in the next 6 years

 

[AKL]

That whole thread summarizing Friedman is interesting (though I haven't heard the actual interview). Assuming his information is good it sounds like:

• Eichel being traded is a near certainty. The idea that they'll just hold onto him of the offers aren't ridiculously high doesn't hold water.
• Teams are divided on what to do about his injury: some seem to agree with the team and others with the player. That seems like a major factor in determining potential landing spots.
• "People" (it isn't specified whether they're inside or outside the organization) are apparently telling Adams to get it done quickly, but he's holding back to try to create a market. That seems wise to me but again it indicates that the price will be set by the bidders and not by Buffalo setting some redline that must be crossed.

Putting all of that together makes me think this could end up looking a whole lot more like the O'Reilly trade than I'd been assuming.

Lower price also means more people interested, which means it would be almost impossible to say who could be a frontrunner. If prospects like Byfield, Rossi, Lafreniere, etc are off the table, what we thought was a short list of 2-4 teams that could afford it, becomes a long list of 10-15 teams, like Calgary or Columbus, who could get involved.

And if the other reports that Buffalo isn't looking for all picks and prospects, and they want good NHL players is true, a team like Calgary could really be poised to jump in with Monahan+, effectively taking two of Guerin's options to upgrade the center spot off the table. Which is fine by me, personally, but others here may not be too thrilled about it.

 

[thestonedkoala]

Exactly. What's next, getting Spurgeon and Zuccarello to waive, then Brodin? These guys got those clauses in their contract for a reason. It's not like Suter is a bad Dman, either. He is still top 40-60, IMO. Not what he once was, but still good. I thought he was good during the playoffs.

In a few years, the Wild may ask Spurgeon, Brodin or Zuccarello to waive, especially if they start slowing down or not performing as well. I mean Parise got that clause in his contract for a reason, and fans are asking him to waive it - why? Yeah, buy him out - but it seems that Parise and Suter are treated differently, because Parise is outspoken.

Looking at Suter, I think the process should start on the last year or two of his contract and see if he can't go out like Bourque with a contender if Minnesota isn't there.

Sure, though none of that changes the prospects of trading him. I agree that he needs to be handled like anyone else and played according to his performance and not his contract.

I mean, they could Parise him. But there is only so many slots in the top 4 - I wouldn't be surprised if they move him down to 5/6 next year as they probably want to start developing younger defensemen. And I don't see Brodin getting his minutes cut down to 5/6.

 

[AKL]

In a few years, the Wild may ask Spurgeon, Brodin or Zuccarello to waive, especially if they start slowing down or not performing as well. I mean Parise got that clause in his contract for a reason, and fans are asking him to waive it - why? Yeah, buy him out - but it seems that Parise and Suter are treated differently, because Parise is outspoken.

Looking at Suter, I think the process should start on the last year or two of his contract and see if he can't go out like Bourque with a contender if Minnesota isn't there.

People want Parise to waive because he's a fourth liner.
People don't want Suter to waive because he's still very much a top 4 defenseman.

It has literally nothing to do with him being outspoken.

 

[Bazeek]

Lower price also means more people interested, which means it would be almost impossible to say who could be a frontrunner. If prospects like Byfield, Rossi, Lafreniere, etc are off the table, what we thought was a short list of 2-4 teams that could afford it, becomes a long list of 10-15 teams, like Calgary or Columbus, who could get involved.

And if the other reports that Buffalo isn't looking for all picks and prospects, and they want good NHL players is true, a team like Calgary could really be poised to jump in with Monahan+, effectively taking two of Guerin's options to upgrade the center spot off the table. Which is fine by me, personally, but others here may not be too thrilled about it.

Conversely the eventual destination might be driven more by the neck injury than the price tag. There might be 20 teams that'd give up a ton for a healthy Eichel, but only 2-3 that are comfortable with the surgery he wants to pursue. Or comfortable with the way he's playing hardball with the Sabres. It would not surprise me if that ends up factoring in as much as the asking price.

I'm sort of ambivalent as to whether or not he lands here, but it'll be irritating if he moves for a modest price that we could have beaten. Even with the questions around his neck I think it's worth us taking a swing on.