Confirmed with Link: [TOR/PIT] TOR acquires Jared McCann for Filip Hallander & 7th Round Pick but for Seattle.

[ShaneFalco]

I was thinking the same thing as the original tweeter - with the caveat I still hold out hope there was more to the McCann deal - but the reply had me almost laughing out loud ... Yes, let's give them one more chance to get by the first round (that will be 6, for the record) before deciding maybe this group can't win?

Right? Many said that last year - and then they lose in the same fashion - embarrassing

 

[Mentat]

Right? Many said that last year - and then they lose in the same fashion - embarrassing

Embarassing? Expected, the way i see it.
Excuses are like cornholes, everybody´s got one. The core of this group has had multiple chances to make it past the 1st round. To no avail.

Believing that next year is being blind to the sad reality. This roster, as is, is not ready to succeed,
As much as i want to believe in the lads, they have failed miserabely year after year. They need to prove to us that they deserve faith in them, not the other way around.

 

[egd27]

Yeah, the not losing anyone was mine.

Right, it was yours.

The discussion was about Mirtle's.

If you can't keep up with the topic being discussed, don't participate in the discussion. It makes you look foolish and wastes the time of others that try to explain things to you.

 

[Chief keefe]

For those of us beyond you, what is the big picture?

Losing Kerfoot, who has value, doesn't make sense for this team. Seatle was asking for an arm and a leg to protect certain players, trading a b level prospect and a 7th that will likely never play a game in the NHL to get a player they want rather than an overpayment to protect Kerfoot makes sense to me. You also want to keep Kerfoot for a trade this offseason. His value is at an all-time high with the great playoff he just played. He's as good as gone, and we needed him to get something of value in return. That's what I see happening. I hope I am right... If I am wrong well then... I have no idea what the point was and I am on the same boat as you.

 

[TheShape]

Mirtle: Making sense of the Jared McCann controversy and where the Maple Leafs go next - The Athletic

Leafs GM Kyle Dubas will speak with the media at noon on Thursday to address how this went down.

From what I can tell, the decision process went something like so …

The Leafs believed if they exposed Justin Holl, he would be Seattle’s pick. Kraken head coach Dave Hakstol ran the Leafs defence the past two years and is a big believer in Holl. Add in the fact that he doesn’t make a lot of money, and you look at who the Kraken ended up with on D, it’s obvious they could use another right-shot D — either to play or to flip in a trade.

The Leafs did not want to lose Holl, as they believe he’s been a great fit with Jake Muzzin, who hasn’t really meshed with another partner in his time in Toronto. Their other options on RD would be either Travis Dermott, who hasn’t played a lot on that side or in the top four in the NHL, or to sign a free agent to fill the slot.

There’s really not a lot available on the right side in free agency, especially if Zach Bogosian has decided to go elsewhere. No one I would feel all that comfortable playing in 20 minutes a game in the top four.

The debate is a bit more complex than “Is Justin Holl better than Jared McCann?” It feels more like: Can you more easily replace McCann (making $2.94 million for one more year before he gets a raise) versus Holl (making $2 million for two more years)?

Looking at all the options available up front in free agency, the answer is … maybe?

I think part of the social media firestorm here in Toronto shows the influence the public analytical models have.

A lot of words and nothing really said from a Dubas mouthpiece. Trading for McCann has nothing to do with protecting Holl as the leafs would’ve went 4-4-1 regardless. The average fan can figure that out themselves.

This was done to keep Kerfoot.

 

[ULF_55]

Leafs got paid millions to lose a player.

It really was a nothingberger.

With that over time for making real decisions begin.

 

[The Podium]

A lot of words and nothing really said from a Dubas mouthpiece. Trading for McCann has nothing to do with protecting Holl as the leafs would’ve went 4-4-1 regardless. The average fan can figure that out themselves.

This was done to keep Kerfoot.

Why lose a player of value in Kerfoot, even if I do agree he needs to be replaced, when you can lose a mid level prospect instead?

 

[The CyNick]

A lot of words and nothing really said from a Dubas mouthpiece. Trading for McCann has nothing to do with protecting Holl as the leafs would’ve went 4-4-1 regardless. The average fan can figure that out themselves.

This was done to keep Kerfoot.

I agree that it seems like they wanted to protect Holl regardless of this move.
They just must think Kerfoot is vital to this team. Which is scary to me.

 

[kb]

Why lose a player of value in Kerfoot, even if I do agree he needs to be replaced, when you can lose a mid level prospect instead?

I suspect because it doesn't match the poorly thought out, ridiculous narrative that they try to push.

 

[The Podium]

I suspect because it doesn't match the poorly thought out, ridiculous narrative that they try to push.

The best part is that if McCann was never tethered to this, people would be laughing with joy that Seattle selected Hallander.

 

[Gallagbi]

I suspect because it doesn't match the poorly thought out, ridiculous narrative that they try to push.

Something, something, something fake glasses

 

[ACC1224]

A lot of words and nothing really said from a Dubas mouthpiece. Trading for McCann has nothing to do with protecting Holl as the leafs would’ve went 4-4-1 regardless. The average fan can figure that out themselves.

This was done to keep Kerfoot.

That seems obvious. Why will become apparent by camp, it still seems to be a bit of a mystery.

I suspect because it doesn't match the poorly thought out, ridiculous narrative that they try to push.

What's the narrative being pushed this week?

 

[Cynical]

Basically Dubas admitted that the reason they let McCann go was due to the ridiculous contracts he threw out. Now they have to always watch which players they have at value and can't afford to lose them because they would need to spend more money to sign a replacement.

Essentially he admitted they're handicapped without saying it directly.

 

[Leafsfan74]

Basically Dubas admitted that the reason they let McCann go was due to the ridiculous contracts he threw out. Now they have to always watch which players they have at value and can't afford to lose them because they would need to spend more money to sign a replacement.

Essentially he admitted they're handicapped without saying it directly.

We all know he is handicapped. As are the Habs with Weber and Price. Both teams are in a similar predictament, both teams have overpaid.

The only solace Dubas can take is that his overpayments are for forwards in their prime who have delivered (in the regular season), while Habs have delivered in the playoffs, (when they have snuck in). Leafs have been a perennial playoff team since Matthews arrival. Making a Finals let alone winning a round would have done wonders for their stubbornness.

Leafs probably lose Hyman, Bogosian and Galchenyuk, all three brought their weight to their play which makes this team easier to play against if they move on.

It's why the best direction I see for this team is to sign Hamilton, trade Reilly so that you shed cap and finally get a return for a player instead of the constant "Free Agency and walk" loop they have been in.

Leafs can't keep losing players as their contracts expires without a return, especially when you have decided (or the market has forced you) to stick with the core and their cap hits. This demand that you maximize every asset, you can't have your cake and eat it too.

Accept that you have to find a new home for Reilly and go out and make the moves needed to provide a shift to this teams fortunes. Why risk going into the season with a worse team than last year while playing stiffer competition?

 

[TheShape]

Why lose a player of value in Kerfoot, even if I do agree he needs to be replaced, when you can lose a mid level prospect instead?

Because we’re gaining 3.5m in valuable cap space which is worth more than Kerfoot himself and we get out from under his cap hit.

Now if they end up trading Kerfoot soon without taking back salary, I’ll cut management some slack. But as it stands, feels like they rate the player for whatever reason. 3.5 for Kerfoot is a luxury we can’t afford.

 

[Lemontree]

Mirtle: Making sense of the Jared McCann controversy and where the Maple Leafs go next - The Athletic

Leafs GM Kyle Dubas will speak with the media at noon on Thursday to address how this went down.

From what I can tell, the decision process went something like so …

The Leafs believed if they exposed Justin Holl, he would be Seattle’s pick. Kraken head coach Dave Hakstol ran the Leafs defence the past two years and is a big believer in Holl. Add in the fact that he doesn’t make a lot of money, and you look at who the Kraken ended up with on D, it’s obvious they could use another right-shot D — either to play or to flip in a trade.

The Leafs did not want to lose Holl, as they believe he’s been a great fit with Jake Muzzin, who hasn’t really meshed with another partner in his time in Toronto. Their other options on RD would be either Travis Dermott, who hasn’t played a lot on that side or in the top four in the NHL, or to sign a free agent to fill the slot.

There’s really not a lot available on the right side in free agency, especially if Zach Bogosian has decided to go elsewhere. No one I would feel all that comfortable playing in 20 minutes a game in the top four.

The debate is a bit more complex than “Is Justin Holl better than Jared McCann?” It feels more like: Can you more easily replace McCann (making $2.94 million for one more year before he gets a raise) versus Holl (making $2 million for two more years)?

Looking at all the options available up front in free agency, the answer is … maybe?

I think part of the social media firestorm here in Toronto shows the influence the public analytical models have.

This is not an explanation for trading for McCann. Holl was protected, McCann created protection for Kerfoot and Dermott (possibly). If this management team is scared to lose Kerfoot and his $3.5M cap hit, it explains a lot.

 

[Lauro]

This is not an explanation for trading for McCann. Holl was protected, McCann created protection for Kerfoot and Dermott (possibly). If this management team is scared to lose Kerfoot and his $3.5M cap hit, it explains a lot.

It kind of is. They wanted to protect Holl, therefore needed to expose Kerfoot, therefore took the chance to get a cheap replacement.

 

[Bluelines]

The best part is that if McCann was never tethered to this, people would be laughing with joy that Seattle selected Hallander.

This not the value we gave up, we gave up McCann, Hallander and a 7th to keep Kerfoot and his $3.5 million 3rd line winger salary.

On a separate subject, Kerfoot had one of the worst cap hit value to goals scored of our forward group. If you look at goals scored, like money ball looks at runs scored, you can break down each cap hit in terms of good value or bad value.

Name	Cap hit	Goals	Cap hit per goal	Team goals per cap hit
Spezza, Jason	$750,000	10	$75,000	1087
Simmonds, Wayne	$900,000	7	$128,571	634
Engvall, Pierre	$1,250,000	7	$178,571	456
Brooks, Adam	$725,000	4	$181,250	450
Mikheyev, Ilya	$1,645,000	7	$235,000	347
Matthews, Auston "A"	$11,640,250	41	$283,909	287
Nylander, William	$6,962,366	17	$409,551	199
Kerfoot, Alexander	$3,500,000	8	$437,500	186
Marner, Mitchell "A"	$10,903,000	20	$545,150	150
Tavares, John "C"	$11,000,000	19	$578,947	141

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

If you take the 6 best values, add their cap hit divide by the number of goals, it's about $223k (cap hit) per goal, if you take our bottom 3 it's about $541k (cap hit) per goal. Not everyone is deployed in same manner so it's not apples to apples but at the same time when your 2nd highest cap hit is your worst value to goals, that speaks to JT, Marner and Kerfoots need to be more prominent on the score sheet.

Another fan stat you can look at to see value is the number of goals the team would score if every one had the cap hit per goal ratio of a particular player, based on $81.5 mil cap. If everyone had Spezza's cap to goal ratio, the team would score over 1000 goals. If everyone had Tavares ratio, the team would score 141 goals.

This is not to pick on Matthews (I think his contract is fair value) but more to illustrate what great value Spezza's contract was, if Matthews had the same cap hit value as Spezza ($75k per goal) that means his contract would have been a little over $3 mil per season or he would have had to score 155 goals @ 11.6 mil

For Marners and Tavares contract to make sense they have to score around 40 goals each. For Kerfoot's to make cap sense he has to score around 13 goals. Willie Ny has to be around 26 goals per year..

 

[Bluelines]

This is not an explanation for trading for McCann. Holl was protected, McCann created protection for Kerfoot and Dermott (possibly). If this management team is scared to lose Kerfoot and his $3.5M cap hit, it explains a lot.

Yeah at first blush it does not make a heck of a lot of sense TBH to protect Kerfoot, his contract is terrible value from a offence perspective. Yes he kills PIM's but you can probably find a vet on his last kick at the NHL willing to do PK for less than a mil per year and kick in 5 to 10 goals, which is what Kerfoot does.

Perhaps Kyle has a bigger move involving Kerfoot and he wanted to protect that asset for a trade.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

Yeah at first blush it does not make a heck of a lot of sense TBH to protect Kerfoot, his contract is terrible value from a offence perspective. Yes he kills PIM's but you can probably find a vet on his last kick at the NHL willing to do PK for less than a mil per year and kick in 5 to 10 goals, which is what Kerfoot does.

Perhaps Kyle has a bigger move involving Kerfoot and he wanted to protect that asset for a trade.

My thoughts are Kerfoot gets moved onto a line with JT/Nylander and maybe even a bit more PP time. His offense should increase quite a bit and then they have the option of flipping him to a team like Arizona due to his soon to be very low actual dollars/year vs his cap hit. Hopefully would get decent value too

 

[The Podium]

This not the value we gave up, we gave up McCann, Hallander and a 7th to keep Kerfoot and his $3.5 million 3rd line winger salary.

On a separate subject, Kerfoot had one of the worst cap hit value to goals scored of our forward group. If you look at goals scored, like money ball looks at runs scored, you can break down each cap hit in terms of good value or bad value.

Name	Cap hit	Goals	Cap hit per goal	Team goals per cap hit
Spezza, Jason	$750,000	10	$75,000	1087
Simmonds, Wayne	$900,000	7	$128,571	634
Engvall, Pierre	$1,250,000	7	$178,571	456
Brooks, Adam	$725,000	4	$181,250	450
Mikheyev, Ilya	$1,645,000	7	$235,000	347
Matthews, Auston "A"	$11,640,250	41	$283,909	287
Nylander, William	$6,962,366	17	$409,551	199
Kerfoot, Alexander	$3,500,000	8	$437,500	186
Marner, Mitchell "A"	$10,903,000	20	$545,150	150
Tavares, John "C"	$11,000,000	19	$578,947	141

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

If you take the 6 best values, add their cap hit divide by the number of goals, it's about $223k (cap hit) per goal, if you take our bottom 3 it's about $541k (cap hit) per goal. Not everyone is deployed in same manner so it's not apples to apples but at the same time when your 2nd highest cap hit is your worst value to goals, that speaks to JT, Marner and Kerfoots need to be more prominent on the score sheet.

Another fan stat you can look at to see value is the number of goals the team would score if every one had the cap hit per goal ratio of a particular player, based on $81.5 mil cap. If everyone had Spezza's cap to goal ratio, the team would score over 1000 goals. If everyone had Tavares ratio, the team would score 141 goals.

This is not to pick on Matthews (I think his contract is fair value) but more to illustrate what great value Spezza's contract was, if Matthews had the same cap hit value as Spezza ($75k per goal) that means his contract would have been a little over $3 mil per season or he would have had to score 155 goals @ 11.6 mil

For Marners and Tavares contract to make sense they have to score around 40 goals each. For Kerfoot's to make cap sense he has to score around 13 goals. Willie Ny has to be around 26 goals per year..

How the f*** did we give up McCann Hallander and a 7th?

McCann or Hallander and a 7th, pick one. We didnt give up both.

I agree Kerfoot should be traded.

 

[ACC1224]

Yeah at first blush it does not make a heck of a lot of sense TBH to protect Kerfoot, his contract is terrible value from a offence perspective. Yes he kills PIM's but you can probably find a vet on his last kick at the NHL willing to do PK for less than a mil per year and kick in 5 to 10 goals, which is what Kerfoot does.

Perhaps Kyle has a bigger move involving Kerfoot and he wanted to protect that asset for a trade.

I guess they value Kerfoot > McCann, Hallander and a pick. ... time will tell.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

I guess they value Kerfoot > McCann, Hallander and a pick. ... time will tell.

how were the Leafs supposed to have all of McCann, Hallander, and the 7th by giving up Kerfoot?

 

[kb]

This not the value we gave up, we gave up McCann, Hallander and a 7th to keep Kerfoot and his $3.5 million 3rd line winger salary.

On a separate subject, Kerfoot had one of the worst cap hit value to goals scored of our forward group. If you look at goals scored, like money ball looks at runs scored, you can break down each cap hit in terms of good value or bad value.

Name	Cap hit	Goals	Cap hit per goal	Team goals per cap hit
Spezza, Jason	$750,000	10	$75,000	1087
Simmonds, Wayne	$900,000	7	$128,571	634
Engvall, Pierre	$1,250,000	7	$178,571	456
Brooks, Adam	$725,000	4	$181,250	450
Mikheyev, Ilya	$1,645,000	7	$235,000	347
Matthews, Auston "A"	$11,640,250	41	$283,909	287
Nylander, William	$6,962,366	17	$409,551	199
Kerfoot, Alexander	$3,500,000	8	$437,500	186
Marner, Mitchell "A"	$10,903,000	20	$545,150	150
Tavares, John "C"	$11,000,000	19	$578,947	141

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

If you take the 6 best values, add their cap hit divide by the number of goals, it's about $223k (cap hit) per goal, if you take our bottom 3 it's about $541k (cap hit) per goal. Not everyone is deployed in same manner so it's not apples to apples but at the same time when your 2nd highest cap hit is your worst value to goals, that speaks to JT, Marner and Kerfoots need to be more prominent on the score sheet.

Another fan stat you can look at to see value is the number of goals the team would score if every one had the cap hit per goal ratio of a particular player, based on $81.5 mil cap. If everyone had Spezza's cap to goal ratio, the team would score over 1000 goals. If everyone had Tavares ratio, the team would score 141 goals.

This is not to pick on Matthews (I think his contract is fair value) but more to illustrate what great value Spezza's contract was, if Matthews had the same cap hit value as Spezza ($75k per goal) that means his contract would have been a little over $3 mil per season or he would have had to score 155 goals @ 11.6 mil

For Marners and Tavares contract to make sense they have to score around 40 goals each. For Kerfoot's to make cap sense he has to score around 13 goals. Willie Ny has to be around 26 goals per year..

The bolded is false. Again.

 

[Budz22]

The PGT thread after game 7 against Montreal made me really angry.
But this thread: