Confirmed with Link: [TOR/CHI] G Petr Mrazek & 25th Overall Pick to CHI for 38th Overall Pick

[zeke]

Yes, it's weasel word play meant to plant the suggestion in the reader's head that the value of the position difference on the trade market is literally a 7th rounder when it clearly isn't. It's spin.

The guy literally predicted the move before it happened based on that very transparent model he used.

 

[Mess]

Yes, it's weasel word play meant to plant the suggestion in the reader's head that the value of the position difference on the trade market is literally a 7th rounder when it clearly isn't. It's spin.

Would have been interesting to see the reaction in Leafland had Dubas traded back from #25 in the 1st to #38 in 2nd to pick up only a 7th round pick and then watch how that is fair market value to move back 13 spots.,

Back in 2015 when Dubas was interim GM the Leafs had #24 OA (Travis Konecny) and Leafs trade back to #29 to pick up #61 (Jeremy Bracco) and then traded back again to #34 (Travis Dermott) and 3rd #68 (#68-Martins Dzierkals.. So moving back 10 spots in the draft from nearly the same spot also added a 2nd and 3rd round pick.

Its too bad once the Leafs dealt Mrazek and their 1st to end up and 38th that Dubas then didn't offer up #38 and Leafs 7th rounder and jump back up into the 1st round, because apparently that is the value of the drop.

 

[zeke]

Would have been interesting to see the reaction in Leafland had Dubas traded back from #25 in the 1st to #38 in 2nd to pick up only a 7th round pick.

We've seen Dubas trade down a number of times to take advantage of other GMs overvaluing the difference.

 

[The Podium]

Would have been interesting to see the reaction in Leafland had Dubas traded back from #25 in the 1st to #38 in 2nd to pick up only a 7th round pick.

Would have been interesting to see the reaction if Dubas had selected Minten at #25 and everyone complaining about trading back would be asking why he didn’t trade back to get assets to dump Mrazek

 

[justashadowof]

The guy literally predicted the move before it happened based on that very transparent model he used.

I predicted Chicago as a team of interest for Mrazek with my divining rod.

We've seen Dubas trade down a number of times to take advantage of other GMs overvaluing the difference.

Remember that time Dubas traded down 5 spots from 24th for a 1/3 of 7th round pick?

 

[zeke]

I predicted Chicago as a team of interest for Mrazek with my divining rod.


Remember that time Dubas traded down 5 spots from 24th for a 1/3 of 7th round pick?

He literally predicted the exact move before it happened based on his totally transparent model.

Criticize the model if you want but don't pretend he's doing dishonest spinning.

 

[justashadowof]

Remember when Dubas absolutely owned his NHL counter parts trading down from 24th (Konecny, 428gms 110g, 160a) to 34th (Dermott, 268gms), 61st (Bracco, 0gms) and 68th (Dzierkals, 0gms)? Stupid idiots overvaluing their precious higher picks.

 

[justashadowof]

Would have been interesting to see the reaction if Dubas had selected Minten at #25 and everyone complaining about trading back would be asking why he didn’t trade back to get assets to dumb Mrazek

Has anyone suggested that Mrazek didn't need to be taken off the books? Although I did have an alternative to trading him: buying him out. Would have cost only $1.033M and $.833M over the next two seasons with $1.433M in 3rd and 4th year.

 

[zeke]

Has anyone suggested that Mrazek didn't need to be taken off the books? Although I did have an alternative to trading him: buying him out. Would have cost only $1.033M and $.833M over the next two seasons with $1.433M in 3rd and 4th year.

I'll take a 13 spot drop in the 25-40 range in a shitty draft over that dead capspace by a mile.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Remember when Dubas absolutely owned his NHL counter parts trading down from 24th (Konecny, 428gms 110g, 160a) to 34th (Dermott, 268gms), 61st (Bracco, 0gms) and 68th (Dzierkals, 0gms)? Stupid idiots overvaluing their precious higher picks.

Remember when Burke absolutely owned his NHL counter parts trading up from 30th (Rakell, 569gms 158g, 194a) and 39th (Gibson, 378gms, 0.915 SV%) to 22nd (Biggs, 0gms)? Silly GMs overvaluing their precious lower picks.

PR spin swimming in a cesspool of half-truths, deflections and intentional misinterpretations is not so endearing

You should stop doing it then.

Although I did have an alternative to trading him: buying him out. Would have cost only $1.033M and $.833M over the next two seasons with $1.433M in 3rd and 4th year.

Carrying dead cap for 4 years would have been infinitely worse than moving down 13 negligible spots in the draft.

As much as you want to live in fantasy land the first round of the playoffs is never "basically the conference finals".

Actually, with this silly playoff format, the 1st round produces a conference final level match up at least as much as the actual conference finals. It was two 110+ point teams, and the toughest matchup on the way to Conference champion. Call it whatever you want - it's not even the point of the post you're replying to anyway.

It is a proper representation of how absolutely dumb the claim that a first round loss was "basically the conference finals" is.

No, it's just misrepresenting what people said and putting words in their mouths. Again.

Edmonton gave up basically what we gave up to dump Ritchie lol

Edmonton gave up 3 spots in the first, a 2nd, and a 3rd. We gave up one conditional 2nd/3rd, and got back a RHD that would basically cost a 3rd on their own. Not even close to the same.

 

[weems]

I really like the move after more thought as right now by far the most important thing for this franchise is getting it done with this core in the next 2 years and getting back that capspace could really be a huge x factor. I know some people question Dubas's drafting while others think it's been very good but it always takes quite a long time to actually know what you got out of a said draft and I think theres a handful of future quality NHL players in our system.

I dont think there was an obvious player that we missed out on selecting at #25. The next move and what we now do with the aquired cap $ will be extremely important but at this current jucture of our timeline and the need to get serious results I understand why the move was made.

 

[Gary Nylund]

I really like the move after more thought as right now by far the most important thing for this franchise is getting it done with this core in the next 2 years and getting back that capspace could really be a huge x factor. I know some people question Dubas's drafting while others think it's been very good but it always takes quite a long time to actually know what you got out of a said draft and I think theres a handful of future quality NHL players in our system.

I dont think there was an obvious player that we missed out on selecting at #25. The next move and what we now do with the aquired cap $ will be extremely important but at this current jucture of our timeline and the need to get serious results I understand why the move was made.

Yeah it really was a great trade. Really hope the cap space helps us get a good goalie as that's our biggest need now by far!

 

[LeafEgo]

I'll just say that Dubas bringing Mrazek to Toronto cant really be seen as some failure in judgement on Dubas's part. Mrazek's previous e 3 seasons with Carolina were very respectable and has had a 10 year career with decent numbers. Last year was Mrazek's worst year ever. Just our luck. Kudos to Dubas for getting rid of this problem and not let it hang around any longer - because that then would be an error in judgement going into the next year with that big question mark

The failure part was the 3x3.8 contract - without going back further than that.

That was the problem we had to pay to erase.

 

[hotpaws]

the funniest part of th people praising Dubas for dumping such a horrid contract at a cost that's equivalent to a high 2nd or a low 2nd and a 3rd is that's they're really crapping on Dubas for giving out such a horrid deal in the first place , lol

either that or they have so little faith in there boy not to get bent that they’re thrilled he didn't have to give up a 1st and Knives to dump Pistol Pete , lol

 

[Dekes For Days]

View attachment 566675

You have to remember that this is based on an average and won't perfectly match every draft. But this does actually offer a good visualization of how insignificant these 13 draft slots are. What we largely see here is a drop through the top 10, then a plateau between 10-25, then another drop off between 25-30, before plateauing at the same rate through the 2nd round.

With this being a weaker draft, we saw that 2nd drop off a bit earlier, in the 20-25 range instead of the 25-30 range, and what we were left with from 25-60 was basically the same quality.

 

[nuck]

The failure part was the 3x3.8 contract - without going back further than that.

That was the problem we had to pay to erase.

Yes. The small sample from his last year in Carolina made him look shinier than he was. After some hot years in Detroit he became basically a .910 goalie if playing for a better defensive club than the Leafs. Last year worse than Reimer at 50% more AAV even without the injuries.

It was absolutely a failure in judgement, hence why they didn't just let him bring his 1a toolbox back next season, but the failure by Dubas was trusting Briere and the team's pro scouting group. Kyle is not a scout any more than Lou was and the Mrazek signing was made because some person or people he trusted said its a good deal. Somebody the club paid full time to watch and analyze players told him we should do this because I have studied this guy and reviewed the video and he is going to make you forget all about (insert failed Leafs goalie from last 5 years)

Bad deal. Club fixed it. No goat horns for the GM and no hero biscuit. Lets move on

 

[kb]

I'll take a 13 spot drop in the 25-40 range in a shitty draft over that dead capspace by a mile.

Only a moron wouldn't. No disrespect meant to any moron.

 

[Leaf Fans]

I'll take a 13 spot drop in the 25-40 range in a shitty draft over that dead capspace by a mile.

Well, it cost us a 3rd or 4th round pick as well.

 

[joepeps]

Well, it cost us a 3rd or 4th round pick as well.

huh???

 

[Leaf Fans]

huh???

We wouldn't have tradded the 25th for the 38th. We would have gotten an extra pick a 3rd or 4th rounder. Not getting that was part of the cost of Chicago taking Mzarek. 13 places is normal in a trade down ,but whatever the extra pick would have been with the trade down.

 

[Dekes For Days]

We wouldn't have tradded the 25th for the 38th. We would have gotten an extra pick a 3rd or 4th rounder. Not getting that was part of the cost of Chicago taking Mzarek. 13 places + whatever the extra pick would have been with the trade down.

The only cost was the 13 spots.

 

[Leaf Fans]

The only cost was the 13 spots.

We did get the second for moving down. That is normal, but usually a trade down would net us an extra 3or 4th along with the second. We didn't get that because we moved Mzarek.

 

[LeafEgo]

We did get the second for moving down. That is normal, but usually a trade down would net us an extra 3or 4th along with the second. We didn't get that because we moved Mzarek.

Opportunity cost. Certainly part of the equation.

 

[Dekes For Days]

We did get the second for moving down. That is normal, but usually a trade down would net us an extra 3or 4th along with the second. We didn't get that because we moved Mzarek.

Even under the assumption that a mid-round pick was an available alternative option for trading down as well (which we don't know), that would make the cost the 13 spots OR the mid-round pick you believe was lost out on, not both. The trade was #25 + Mrazek for #38. The entire cost of moving Mrazek was 13 spots.

 

[joepeps]

Well, it cost us a 3rd or 4th round pick as well.

We wouldn't have tradded the 25th for the 38th. We would have gotten an extra pick a 3rd or 4th rounder. Not getting that was part of the cost of Chicago taking Mzarek. 13 places is normal in a trade down ,but whatever the extra pick would have been with the trade down.

lol hindsight is amazing isn't it...

We needed a goalie... either resign Anderson or it was a cheaper option in Mrazek... it didn't work out... ohh well.. cost 13 spots to fit the mistake.