I think you're misreading the severity of the Leafs' contract issues here. They have a few not great to bad contracts. Ritchie (gone now), Holl, and Mrazek. They will almost certainly resign Campbell this summer and jettison Mrazek to do it. Holl is a big negative, but only has $2 million left for one season. That's definitely a contract I'm sniffing around if I'm Armstrong, but not sure how much 2 million is worth for 1 season. Mrazek I think Toronto figures will only be slightly overpaid as long as he doesn't fall off a cliff and a goalie starved team like Montreal or us would take him for free or even pay a small asset. I don't think they believe they will need to pay through the nose to get rid of Mrazek. Unless he falls off a cliff the rest of the year. So I fear the negative value of Holl + Mrazek just doesn't add up to the best prospect in their system. As far as Muzzin and Brodie? They want more of them, not less. Brodie is the perfect partner for Rielly and they're looking for basically another of him on the 2nd pair. Muzzin hasn't been good this year due to injuries, but is also exactly the type of player they want to kill penalties and be a shutdown defender. They don't move on from him unless his body completely falls apart. So as it sits, they don't have huge problems for cap. I keep thinking of ways we could pry Knies out of them without giving up Crouse and I don't really see it yet. Was thinking maybe if we took on Holl + Mrazek + Ritchie in the summer. Obviously that is out the window now. If Muzzin is breaking down, I wonder if they consider Ghostisbehere to be their 2nd pair LD and would give us Knies for that. Again, doesn't seem likely as that roster doesn't really need more offense.
None the less, the dream of Knies - TBD - Doan still lives on for now... if only we'd used the Fedotov pick on Knies!
Yeah... I don't think I am misreading the Leafs' cap issues honestly. At least not materially. Please do take a long look at their cap if you haven't yet
Toronto Maple Leafs Salary Cap, Draft Picks, and Player Contracts - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps
Completely agree there aren't really any terrible contracts in there now that Ritchie's gone. But, their cap hits still don't add up. And I completely agree that they need more players like Brodie / Muzzin and if either were a cap casualty the Leafs would be worse.
Anyway re: cap, say they keep their D and then trade Mrazek in the offseason like you suggest, who is going to pay 3.8m for a 1B goalie for two more years? Which teams can even afford that? I don't think the Habs bc Carey Price will be back. It'll probably be us, honestly, but then it'll probably cost your first rounder or a second + a good prospect. Which means Kyle Dubas overpaid Mrazek on a three year deal last summer and 12 months later will have to spend a decent asset to get himself out of the deal that he just made. Again, what is Kyle Dubas doing?
Also, am not convinced they have the money to sign Campbell even if they want to. They're up against the cap right now, the players becoming UFAs next summer are all on cheap deals, they have to fill their roster with someone. They do have 1.2m coming off the books w Kessel, but Sandin will need a raise so there goes that. Anyway even if they're able / want to trade Mrazek, 2.5m of his 3.8m salary goes to Reilly's extension, not Campbell. Which means if you want to re-sign Campbell you'd probably also have to trade Kerfoot, but still might not give you enough money because Campbell's a UFA and will get paid by a team who needs a goalie upgrade (Edmonton / Chicago / Wsh?). I guess it's possible but I do think Campbell will get paid because he'll be the best UFA goalie on the market.
So that is why I think their cap is a mess. But seriously if you think the Leafs will re-sign Campbell (they would certainly want to), how much do you think it would cost money-wise, and how would you free up the money if you were them? Keep in mind Rielly's well deserved extension means his salary goes up from 5m to 7.5m going forward