@Zuluss,
I have an update. I am proposing a more nuanced system based on the preliminary % lead model. I re-assessed your original post and realized that the 0.9 modifier used for the 1970-97 era was determined by dividing the
2nd place over 10th place averages. While the 2nd place over 10th percentage leads between the two eras are more similar than the 1st over 10th percentage leads, the same applies to all 2nd place over 10th leads -- the further down the list, the more similar the margins in many cases. It would not be precise solely to pick and choose the multiplier based on whichever-placed finish has the most similar % leads compared to those of the modern era.
I have, thus, devised a model that takes the multipliers of the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd placed percentage leads over 10th of each era and averages them out to create a new multiplier.
Here are the % leads and % lead multipliers of each era for 1st, 2nd, and 3rd place over 10th:
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1917-18 to 1922-23:
1st place over 10th:
Average: 139.70137096134%
Multiplier (1997-2017 era / 1917-1923 era): 0.3262829140345794
2nd place over 10th:
Average: 121.0213741366992%
Multiplier (1997-2017 era / 1917-1923 era): 0.24754920144493
3rd place over 10th:
Average: 91.18465706120505%
Multiplier (1997-2017 era / 1917-1923 era): 0.272941223574166
---------------------------------------------------------------
1923-24 to 1940-41:
1st place over 10th:
Average: 73.2620751799498%
Multiplier (1997-2017 era / 1923-1941 era): 0.622179624313544
2nd place over 10th:
Average: 52.11469769003309%
Multiplier (1997-2017 era / 1923-1941 era): 0.5748617156621746
3rd place over 10th:
Average: 41.98403386354883%
Multiplier (1997-2017 era / 1923-1941 era): 0.5927980134153855
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1941-42 to 1946-47:
1st place over 10th:
Average: 70.67110711561513%
Multiplier (1997-2017 era / 1941-1947 era): 0.6449901844231923
2nd place over 10th:
Average: 32.33627547128691%
Multiplier (1997-2017 era / 1941-1947 era): 0.9264748054212349
3rd place over 10th:
Average: 27.1068068722531%
Multiplier (1997-2017 era / 1941-1947 era): 0.9181476810148292
You'll notice that the 1st-over-10th % lead is so much higher than the 2nd and 3rd place over 10th % leads. In fact, the multipliers are >0.9 for 2nd and 3rd place, making clear that the league's players, for the most part, did not dominate their peers in the goal-scoring leader boards to a degree much greater than in the modern era. We must recall that this takes into account dominance over peers. We will take the average of the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd place multipliers in each era to determine our final modifiers.
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1947-48 to 1969-70:
1st place over 10th:
Average: 74.79654266560749%
Multiplier (1997-2017 era / 1947-1970 era): 0.6094154727936524
2nd place over 10th:
Average: 47.12100941712862%
Multiplier (1997-2017 era / 1947-1970 era): 0.6357831654263735
3rd place over 10th:
Average: 35.9512521282787
Multiplier (1997-2017 era / 1947-1970 era): 0.6922721851431556
---------------------------------------------------------------
1970-71 to 1996-97:
1st place over 10th:
Average: 57.32026999682465%
Multiplier (1997-2017 era / 1970-1997 era): 0.795219045800323
2nd place over 10th:
Average: 32.78734923766489
Multiplier (1997-2017 era / 1970-1997 era): 0.9137287771617871
3rd place over 10th:
Average: 24.75942837229907
Multiplier (1997-2017 era / 1970-1997 era): 1.005194929997691
---------------------------------------------------------------
1997-98 to 2016-17:
1st place over 10th:
Average: 45.58217041189178
2nd place over 10th:
Average: 29.95874452530799
3rd place over 10th:
Average: 24.88805186947602
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We notice with these figures that the differences of the multipliers between the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd place over 10th within each era are different compared to the differences of those in other eras; for example, in the 1970-1997 era, the multipliers are each separated by approximately 0.1. In the 1947-1970 era, they are separated by ~0.05. In the 1941-1947 era, we see the effects of WWII, where the 2nd and 3rd placed finishers led the 10th-placed finisher by a much smaller margin than the 1st-placed finisher. This means that, in this era, a 50 goal over 23 goal lead by 1st over 10th (Maurice Richard, 1944-45) would be than a 52 goal over 25 goal lead by 1st over 10th in the 1947-1970 era (Bobby Hull, 1966-67). Such a lead in the WWII era was an anomaly and out of the ordinary, whereas in the subsequent era it was much more standard; the frequency with which the top players recorded large goal totals was much greater in the 1947-1970 era, making such leads less significant and more of a product of the era.
In order to determine final multipliers to be used for determining the adjusted % leads of any player, we determine the average of the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd over 10th percentage leads of each era. The resultant numbers take into account the climate of goal-scoring within the era, whereas the preliminary model was much less clearly defined in its estimation of the climate.
Here are the final multipliers:
FINAL MULTIPLIERS (AVERAGE OF 1st, 2nd, 3rd OVER 10th):
====================================================
1917-18 to 1922-23:
Average of Multipliers for 1st + 2nd + 3rd Averages Over 10th:
0.2822577796845585
====================================================
1923-24 to 1940-41:
Average of Multipliers for 1st + 2nd + 3rd Averages Over 10th:
0.5966131177970347
====================================================
1941-42 to 1946-47:
Average of Multipliers for 1st + 2nd + 3rd Averages Over 10th:
0.8298708902864188
====================================================
1947-48 to 1969-70:
Average of Multipliers for 1st + 2nd + 3rd Averages Over 10th:
0.6458236077877272
====================================================
1970-71 to 1996-97:
Average of Multipliers for 1st + 2nd + 3rd Averages Over 10th:
0.9047142509866004
====================================================
To calculate the adjusted % lead of any player's finish over 10th, use the formula: [([the player's goal total / the goal total of the 10th-placed finisher that year] - 1) * (final multiplier for the era that the season took place within)] * 100 =
We can use whole numbers for the final % leads, as the difference between tenths is less than one goal.
For example, Bobby Hull's 1966-67 season % lead (52 goals / 25 goals) is a 70% adjusted lead. Maurice Richard's 1944-45 season % lead (50 goals / 23 goals) is a 97% adjusted lead.
*Note: You can copy and paste numbers into the standard Calculator program in Windows. This ensures precision.
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The average % lead of the 1st-place finisher over 10th in the modern era (1997-2017) was 45.58217041189178%. Those seasons with % leads higher than the 46% baseline are to be deemed at the level of an above-average 1st-place finish by modern era standards. One could deem these, for our purposes, "elite goal-scoring seasons" -- better than the average first-place finish in the modern era.
Adjusted Percentage Leads Over 10th:
Richard:
97-66-65-56-49-47-38-29-26-24-12-11-8
Howe:
94-68-62-54-38-37-34-30-21-19-19-17-14-12-11-10-5-2-0
Esposito:
101-80-67-47-34-28-20-11-5
Gretzky:
77-76-53-43-43-16-13-12-8
Lemieux:
77-42-41-26-25-17-4-4-0
Bobby Hull:
70-60-60-51-46-40-36-30-29-20-12-12-10
Ovechkin:
63-61-52-52-50-44-43-30-15-6
Bure:
61-55-48-28-10
Brett Hull:
82-60-54-22-10-0-0-0
Charlie Conacher:
48-47-46-33-26
Stamkos:
67-46-38-32-30-9
Joe Malone:
67-39-30-12
Bossy:
66-38-30-29-25-24-23-8-8
Bernie Geoffrion:
60-47-25-16-16-13-6-0
Selanne:
58-37-21-20-19-0
Bondra:
58-28-13-10-9-5
Howie Morenz:
50-40-39-34-26-24-18-16-11
Lafleur:
50-45-29-27-27-6
Kurri:
49-43-26-10
Marcel Dionne: 43-43-19-16-15-12-0-0-0
Iginla: 41-26-25-24
Patrick Kane: 39-10-0
Yzerman: 37-34-12-7-6-4
Jagr: 35-30-29-21-17-13-11-6
Sakic: 35-8-6-5-0
Heatley: 25-25-11-11-3-0
Neely: 20-12-8-3
Robitaille: 15-14-9-6-4-0-0-0-0