Value of: Top 5 Picks

[Todd Parchment]

In semi-recent draft history many players in the top slots have busted. Why don’t teams trade down to get more assets instead of picking what ifs? nHL prospects are very young and harder to judge than other sports, besides the Cronus, McDavid , Oveichakin type players.

I think lots of GM’s would be hungry to move up for magic beans, most fan base think their GM is dumb....

let’s say you are 20 overall how much would it cost to move to 5 in an average year?

1st+2nd+top 4 D? That can rebuild a team in the NHL with some good development and luck.

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[Cogburn]

most fan base think their GM is dumb.....

But Vancouvers GM is dumb.

And to answer your question, there are are way too many mitigating factors to be accurate. A team that suffered injuries and ended up way lower, or winning the lottery, might be fine taking a roster asset, but a team that sold off their assets might need a lot more coaxing to give up a chance on a star.

It also depends on the draft year, and who is on the board.

 

[WidgitRibbit]

But Vancouvers GM is dumb.

And to answer your question, there are are way too many mitigating factors to be accurate. A team that suffered injuries and ended up way lower, or winning the lottery, might be fine taking a roster asset, but a team that sold off their assets might need a lot more coaxing to give up a chance on a star.

It also depends on the draft year, and who is on the board.

Good points all the way around. But I wish you also mentioned with more emphasis the strength of drafts. That’s the biggest difference most of the time. For instance this one. This draft is described weaker than most.

We can tell by the trade deadline moves also. I believe the picks being given up were more in this years draft compared to next years. Which indicates to me imo GMs are fully aware about weak and strong draft years

 

[Juxtaposer]

Cronus and Oveichakin? Oy.

 

[WidgitRibbit]

Cronus and Oveichakin? Oy.

Typo error. I knew what he or she said. It’s Crosby and Ovechkin

 

[Perratrooper]

Calgary offered all three of there first round picks to Colorado in 2013 for First overall. You don’t get the same opportunity to snag franchise changing players later on.

 

[WingsMJN2965]

Cronus and Oveichakin. The most dangerous duo in NHL history.

On topic, I think this is the year we see a Top 5 team move down.

 

[EK392000]

In semi-recent draft history many players in the top slots have busted. Why don’t teams trade down to get more assets instead of picking what ifs? nHL prospects are very young and harder to judge than other sports, besides the Cronus, McDavid , Oveichakin type players.

I think lots of GM’s would be hungry to move up for magic beans, most fan base think their GM is dumb....

let’s say you are 20 overall how much would it cost to move to 5 in an average year?

1st+2nd+top 4 D? That can rebuild a team in the NHL with some good development and luck.

Players becoming a bust can sometimes be blamed on the player, but I feel like it's a players development or usage that ruins them most of the time. I think if you have competent scouts, a good development and training program and are cautious in your approach to prospects, who you draft in that top 5 (or even later on) can be far more valuable than the package in return for that pick. With that being said, I don't think teams will want to trade their high picks just because it is a question mark.

 

[DFF]

But Vancouvers GM is dumb.

And to answer your question, there are are way too many mitigating factors to be accurate. A team that suffered injuries and ended up way lower, or winning the lottery, might be fine taking a roster asset, but a team that sold off their assets might need a lot more coaxing to give up a chance on a star.

It also depends on the draft year, and who is on the board.

He drafted pretty good for a dumb guy

 

[Djp]

In semi-recent draft history many players in the top slots have busted. Why don’t teams trade down to get more assets instead of picking what ifs? nHL prospects are very young and harder to judge than other sports, besides the Cronus, McDavid , Oveichakin type players.

I think lots of GM’s would be hungry to move up for magic beans, most fan base think their GM is dumb....

let’s say you are 20 overall how much would it cost to move to 5 in an average year?

1st+2nd+top 4 D? That can rebuild a team in the NHL with some good development and luck.

it has NEVER happened in the modern nhl draft. It never will.

All GMs know there is a major fall off in top 5 potential vs drafting at 20 that the price is insurmountable.
Thus year due to no CHL talent evaluation will be harder so it could mea weird draft in where the talent gets drsfted.

loook historically over the last 10 years in early draft rankings done after last draft vs where they ended up getting drafted. The top players stayed in the same area. Picks after 15 tended to be chaotic in changes.

tne reason the draft high picks might not have panned out could be blamed more on (1) faulty analytics, (2) there are more talent sources. In the latter it was rare to see Europeans drafted in the first, now half in the draft are Europeans with many playing in Europe.

 

[Djp]

Cronus and Oveichakin. The most dangerous duo in NHL history.

On topic, I think this is the year we see a Top 5 team move down.

this draft year could be a strange one.

but top 5-7 players in the rankings before the season didn’t fall off a cliff and stayed high in the draft.

the bigger chances for this woukd be outside the top 10 where teams have 15-50 with not much difference. Instead of having one bite at the app,e, they trade down and get 3 bites.

 

[Djp]

But Vancouvers GM is dumb.

And to answer your question, there are are way too many mitigating factors to be accurate. A team that suffered injuries and ended up way lower, or winning the lottery, might be fine taking a roster asset, but a team that sold off their assets might need a lot more coaxing to give up a chance on a star.

It also depends on the draft year, and who is on the board.

It will depend on the team picking and how they are drafting...

look at the bottom 12 teams in standings ( I know order can change due to games played differences)

buf— RD or Forward
Ott- either
Nj-D
Ana D
Van Either
LA D
CBJ forward
SJ either
cgy either
Stl either
Az either

If Buffalo was to win the lottery they could move down....they also want to win now so they might be looking for a young nhl ready instead of pure picks.

 

[WidgitRibbit]

It will depend on the team picking and how they are drafting...

look at the bottom 12 teams in standings ( I know order can change due to games played differences)

buf— RD or Forward
Ott- either
Nj-D
Ana D
Van Either
LA D
CBJ forward
SJ either
cgy either
Stl either
Az either

If Buffalo was to win the lottery they could move down....they also want to win now so they might be looking for a young nhl ready instead of pure picks.

Don’t think Anaheim is drafting a defenseman. This forward core here is atrocious one. Anaheim drafted Drysdale last season as well.

Expect Anaheim to take Beniers, Eklund, Johnson, Guenther.

Trevor Zegras is going to need help here very very soon. He’s tearing up the AHL right now and I don’t expect him to stay there long.

 

[HugeInTheShire]

In semi-recent draft history many players in the top slots have busted. Why don’t teams trade down to get more assets instead of picking what ifs? nHL prospects are very young and harder to judge than other sports, besides the Cronus, McDavid , Oveichakin type players.

I think lots of GM’s would be hungry to move up for magic beans, most fan base think their GM is dumb....

let’s say you are 20 overall how much would it cost to move to 5 in an average year?

1st+2nd+top 4 D? That can rebuild a team in the NHL with some good development and luck.

I mean Cronus and Oveichakin are a couple huge busts... I haven't even heard of either of them

 

[Double Dion]

Calgary offered all three of there first round picks to Colorado in 2013 for First overall. You don’t get the same opportunity to snag franchise changing players later on.

It was actually all of their draft picks #6, #22, #28 and then a 3rd, 5th, 6th and 2 7ths. Colorado made the right choice. All those picks turned into Monahan.

 

[Mersss]

It was actually all of their draft picks #6, #22, #28 and then a 3rd, 5th, 6th and 2 7ths. Colorado made the right choice. All those picks turned into Monahan.

I mean, YEAH, BUT it could've turn into...

Monahan
Theodore
Bertuzzi

Wouldn't be a bad haul either.

 

[Double Dion]

I mean, YEAH, BUT it could've turn into...

Monahan
Theodore
Bertuzzi

Wouldn't be a bad haul either.

Honestly I wanted Shinkaruk or Theodore drafted where we took Poirier. Shinkaruk busted too though.

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

There's no such thing as a sure thing, but there is a significantly higher chance of getting an elite player in the top 5 of the draft than anywhere else. And, there is literally no better way to get an elite talent on their ELC.

 

[dumbdick]

View media item 7677View media item 7715
Big dropoff for high impact talent.

 

[Djp]

View media item 7677View media item 7715
Big dropoff for high impact talent.

I don’t like a 100 game benchmark. There is too much bias to 1st round and high 2nd round players who get in games on their ELC ( from call ups around 50+) then in ELC yr 3 or 4th yrthey are playing with the team and getting another 50 games.

if they were a failure, another team gives them a shot. So getting 100 games is far easier for a high pick thrn a 4-7 rd player. 4-7 round players rarely get to 100 games. Ifthey do, they have long nhl careers.

I prefer 200 games as a better benchmark of draft pick success.

another piece not addressed in this is what I call success measure both objectively and where they were drafted.

You have sn expectation the top 20 pick will be a top 6/top 4 player. If they end up a bottom pair bottom 6 player you might look at this as a bust . If you drafted this same player in the 4th they’d be a success.

another measure is above replacement. A player might be fine for a team being say a 15-20 g scorer with mid 40 pts playing on a good team but you could substitute him for you 1/2 round pick and hedpistsimilar numbers in his first few years. From an ROI the younger player. From this some players could play till their late 20sand not get resigned.