Hronek is arguably more impressive.
Since when is Niku’s performance similar to any other young AHL D-man?
You were clear, just wrong. You are massively overestimating the importance of when a player is born within their draft year.
Yeah sure, you were wrong thinking a player could only be two years older than Niku with the 2017 draftees. I had to explain it to you.
LMFAO, I was typing it and thinking why the hell do i have a tie for 10th
And there is a reason too why he wasn't a first rounder too. Nothing against him and I think he has developped nicely, but purely statistically looking first rounders on average are about 60-70% more likely to become NHL regulars compared to 7th rounders (this doesn't take into account whether they will be low or high level of players, in that case the separation would be much more bigger). I wouldn't criticize people here favoring prospects in that category over Niku at this point.
Again. Niku is the age where majority of players reach the AHL. Most CHL drafted players are not even eligible to play in the AHL earlier. His birth date makes him a few months older than the average age a CHL drafted player would be eligible to play in the AHL, but that’s. In most cases you are either comparing him to players the same age, in which case he’s on of if not these best or comparing him to players not yet eligible to play in the AHL so you have to account for the much higher level of play.
Yawn. This is pretty basic stuff. The problem is that you can’t account for it by using birth year instead, of draft year not only doesn’t work it makes things worse. No matter what point in the year you chose for a dividing line there are players who fall near that line on either side and are a little younger/older than the players you are grouping them with, and by switching from draft year to birth year you are effectively taking a player from being one of the oldest to one of the youngest and you then need to adjust for his relative youth.
Niku is within a few months of the typical age for an AHL rookie, so your "one year of development" doesn’t exist. For players like Hronek or Liljegren who end up in the AHL a little sooner it’s something worth noting, otherwise it’s a non-issue.
Ugh...
He’s in the same boat as far as being suitable head to head comparisons, but consider the AHL performance relative to his peer group (all in their 20 year old season. )
You are considering him "older" at an age where players are typically in their rookie AHL season. It’s relatively rare for layers notably younger than him to even be in the AHL. If Niku is discounted because he’s "older" than you have to apply the same logic to nearly every AHL player. This is incompatible with your claim to "rate AHL success over junior success".
