Blue Jays Discussion: 'Tis the season ... MVP SEASON

[BertCorbeau]

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[Eyedea]

Ok. Noted.

If you could, explain how a pair (using Hendricks and McHugh) of starters with 4 and 5 years of control left are hypothetically acquired with a CF who's perceived value relies so heavily on defensive metrics.

Kevin is tangibly very clearly good defensively, but I can't for the life of me remember a starter of that calibre and value being traded for such a player.

And Jeremy Hellickson is a bottom of the rotation starter in his final year of arbitration with about a 6.6m projected price tag who was just moved for a whatever pitching prospect. How on Earth could he possibly bring back someone even remotely valuable?

Doug Fister? He was moved with 4 years of control for Casper Wells and Charlie Furbush. Nathan Eovaldi brought back David Phelps and Martin Prado.

It's really hard to find comparables because many cases do not align with a trade like this for instance, but I'm positive that Pillar is worth more than a player of Hellickson's ilk.

I mean, it might sound kind of crazy, but...

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.as...0&rost=0&age=14,27&filter=&players=9077,12434

 

[Man Bear Pig]

Lacava should target Chris Young. Induces plenty of ground balls, will be cheap, experienced and would fit in nicely as a #4 or #5.

Stroman
Zimmerman(or someone similar)
Estrada
Dickey
Young

Hutchinson and Hendriks as injury replacements. I'm still of the belief of leaving Sanchez and Osuna in the pen for another year.

 

[Discoverer]

Lacava should target Chris Young. Induces plenty of ground balls

EDIT: At the risk of seeming like a dick, I'll add: Chris Young is by far (like... by far) the most extreme fly ball pitcher in baseball.

 

[habamillions]

Id rather take the country singer with the same name then the baseball version of chris young. so i share your laugh

 

[Canada4Gold]

My valuation of him is quite sound. Where I and the three of you differ is Kevin Pillar's value.

Then I'm not quite sure why you brought up Martin, that was the first thing I objected to. When someone objects you don't think they're comparable then why even bring it up?

I agree someone wouldn't give up anything overly valuable for Pillar, but if we were gonna trade him I think we would easily get something better than Hellickson. Hellickson would be something we'd get for Goins.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

And Jeremy Hellickson is a bottom of the rotation starter in his final year of arbitration with about a 6.6m projected price tag who was just moved for a whatever pitching prospect. How on Earth could he possibly bring back someone even remotely valuable?

Doug Fister? He was moved with 4 years of control for Casper Wells and Charlie Furbush. Nathan Eovaldi brought back David Phelps and Martin Prado.

It's really hard to find comparables because many cases do not align with a trade like this for instance, but I'm positive that Pillar is worth more than a player of Hellickson's ilk.

I mean, it might sound kind of crazy, but...

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.as...0&rost=0&age=14,27&filter=&players=9077,12434

That doesn't sound crazy, it is crazy. We both know that the freak athlete who didn't play baseball full time until 16 and Kevin Pillar have little to do with one another. That development curve is as unique as it gets.

As for the specific example of Hellickson; yes, I agree it is extreme and was done to make a hyperbolic point. I admit that.

But the McHugh/Hendricks level of value? Starters with that kind of control rarely get traded, let alone for the Pillars/Kiermaiers of the world.

Shelby Miller was coming off a far worse season, with a similar level of control and netted Heyward (albeit with less control, admittedly) straight up.

Just as an aside, that first Fister trade was such a good snipe. Classic undervalued pitcher, perceived to not be very good, traded for nothing. It's what dreams are made of.

 

[theaub]

Devon Travis out until mid-May likely

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Then I'm not quite sure why you brought up Martin, that was the first thing I objected to. When someone objects you don't think they're comparable then why even bring it up?

I agree someone wouldn't give up anything overly valuable for Pillar, but if we were gonna trade him I think we would easily get something better than Hellickson. Hellickson would be something we'd get for Goins.

Sure man. Sorry for bringing it up. I suppose the point I was trying to make was defense first, below average hitting outfielders don't net mid rotation starters with control.

Should have used Austin Jackson as an example instead.

 

[habamillions]

Devon Travis out until mid-May likely

yeah but at least he is getting the surgery done now. Goins can play and prove he can play. If not Travis can then prove he is better then Goins. Spring training is the place to do this buy this year cant do that. feel bad for travis he was phenomenal to start last year

 

[Man Bear Pig]

EDIT: At the risk of seeming like a dick, I'll add: Chris Young is by far (like... by far) the most extreme fly ball pitcher in baseball.

I had him mixed up with someone else. I meant to say induces infield flyballs and weak contact. Second-last BAPIP of any SP with 1000+ innings. Underrated arm.

 

[Man Bear Pig]

Id rather take the country singer with the same name then the baseball version of chris young. so i share your laugh

Please, go ahead and tell me why Chris Young would be a bad option as a cheap, back of the rotation arm.

 

[Longshot]

With Travis out long-term I wonder if they will look to bring Darwin Barney back, with Pennington already off the market.

 

[Discoverer]

Sure man. Sorry for bringing it up. I suppose the point I was trying to make was defense first, below average hitting outfielders don't net mid rotation starters with control.

Should have used Austin Jackson as an example instead.

I think one of the big problems is that we don't have any decent examples of players like that being traded. When he was traded to Seattle, Jackson was struggling, had just a year and a half of expensive control left and was still a big part of a trade that netted the Tigers David Price. When he was traded to Chicago, he was having a bit of a better season (still nowhere near Pillar level), but he was only a rental.

I don't wholly disagree with you. Teams are always hesitant to give up even decent pitchers. But I could easily word it as "Decent pitchers with a short track-record of success don't net Gold Glove-calibre center fielders coming off 5 WAR seasons who still have 5 years of control."

 

[Canada4Gold]

With Travis out long-term I wonder if they will look to bring Darwin Barney back, with Pennington already off the market.

I wouldn't exactly say Travis is out long term since most of it will be the offseason, if it's the low end of the scale 4 months he's back before the end of spring training, there's not exactly a lot of game time missed

but yeah I'd bring back Barney, I wanted him back on a minor league deal as depth before this Travis news.

Read on twitter this was a last resort though after trying to not have to do it. Why not have just done it and get it over with back when he was officially out for the season? Doing it then would have meant he'd be back for spring. Confusing that they decided not to, must have some potential downsides to want to avoid doing it if at all possible.

 

[Man Bear Pig]

With Travis out long-term I wonder if they will look to bring Darwin Barney back, with Pennington already off the market.

He'll be out 20 weeks max they're saying. Just plug Goins at second and don't think too hard about the backup MI given Travis shouldn't miss much of the season.

 

[le_sean]

 

[Discoverer]

I wouldn't exactly say Travis is out long term since most of it will be the offseason, if it's the low end of the scale 4 months he's back before the end of spring training, there's not exactly a lot of game time missed

but yeah I'd bring back Barney, I wanted him back on a minor league deal as depth before this Travis news.

Read on twitter this was a last resort though after trying to not have to do it. Why not have just done it and get it over with back when he was officially out for the season? Doing it then would have meant he'd be back for spring. Confusing that they decided not to, must have some potential downsides to want to avoid doing it if at all possible.

I would think missing an entire offseason (or most of it) probably has more of a negative impact on players than some of us realize.

 

[TootooTrain]

With Travis out long-term I wonder if they will look to bring Darwin Barney back, with Pennington already off the market.

Mentioned this before aswell. I think he gets a minor league contract at some point with an opt out around june. That said he'll try his hardest to get a major league contract so I don't expect him to sign until before spring training like alot of fringe guys.

I wouldn't exactly say Travis is out long term since most of it will be the offseason, if it's the low end of the scale 4 months he's back before the end of spring training, there's not exactly a lot of game time missed

but yeah I'd bring back Barney, I wanted him back on a minor league deal as depth before this Travis news.

Read on twitter this was a last resort though after trying to not have to do it. Why not have just done it and get it over with back when he was officially out for the season? Doing it then would have meant he'd be back for spring. Confusing that they decided not to, must have some potential downsides to want to avoid doing it if at all possible.

The jays should have a new policy. If there's a need for a surgery even if it's deemed a low percentage outcome, you do it.

 

[Muston Atthews]

yeah but at least he is getting the surgery done now. Goins can play and prove he can play. If not Travis can then prove he is better then Goins. Spring training is the place to do this buy this year cant do that. feel bad for travis he was phenomenal to start last year

Unless Goins is blowing the doors off offensively when Travis is due back, Travis will take over starting duties when he's back.

 

[TootooTrain]

Navarro was on TSN radio and it sounded like coming back was probably one of his last options. Which makes sense. At his age, if someone's willing to pay you as a starting catcher you do it. Didn't rule out coming back either but you know he's hunting for a contract. I wonder what Jeff Mathis is looking for.

Never forget..

 

[SDig14]

Most of the time doctors and players see surgery as a last resort. People don't really want to get cut open if there's a reasonable expectation of it healing with time and rehab.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

I think one of the big problems is that we don't have any decent examples of players like that being traded. When he was traded to Seattle, Jackson was struggling, had just a year and a half of expensive control left and was still a big part of a trade that netted the Tigers David Price. When he was traded to Chicago, he was having a bit of a better season (still nowhere near Pillar level), but he was only a rental.

I don't wholly disagree with you. Teams are always hesitant to give up even decent pitchers. But I could easily word it as "Decent pitchers with a short track-record of success don't net Gold Glove-calibre center fielders coming off 5 WAR seasons who still have 5 years of control."

Again, to each their own. I feel like the premium placed on starting pitching is being undervalued greatly in the argument, but I concede to understanding your point of view.

 

[Muston Atthews]

Ben Revere come on down... I'd take Carrasco for him

 

[Canada4Gold]

The jays should have a new policy. If there's a need for a surgery even if it's deemed a low percentage outcome, you do it.

obviously that's not a smart thing to be doing, but he struggled through the problem for 4 or 5 months already, tried a bunch of stuff to get him back healthy and nothing was working, of course we don't have all the information but if it seemed nothing else was working, do the surgery and get it out of the way back in September so he doesn't miss Spring training.

I know I'm being unfair because I don't have anywhere near enough info to make the judgement which is why I didn't outright call them stupid in my post just more of a side question, maybe it looked like surgery would likely not be necessary but when he struggles with the problem for 4 or 5 months, they finally say his season is over it's frustrating that they don't make sure he's going to be ready for next year, doing the surgery then would have done that but like I said don't have any details. It's just frustrating.