Prospect Info: Timothy Liljegren

[RoadWarrior]

they don't keep a ledger of causality for each goal, so you're making my point for me here. I have no issue with you not liking Gardiner's defence, but unless you have an accounting for every goal for and against that he's ever been on the ice for, using plus/minus doesn't hold up as a means of proving anything. Btw, he's a lifetime plus player who's been hugely on the plus side since the team got good, does that mean he's been really good defensively outside of game 7's?

You can use Corsi as well. The problem and biggest weakness of analytics is that it doesn’t measure the errors that lead directly to goals against as not all turnovers are created equal.

Goals and assists are good estimates of contribution on offense but there’s no corresponding stat defensively.

Gardiner is an example of a player who has benefited greatly from his teammates and their offensive ability. He was never a top Pk guy and wilted under pressure consistently.

Liljegren on the other hand has been performing better as the playoffs go on and seems to thrive under pressure.

 

[SHANNYPLAN]

Rielly - - - ____
Muzzin - Liljigren
Dermott - Zaitsev/Trade/FA

 

[Randy Randerson]

You can use Corsi as well. The problem and biggest weakness of analytics is that it doesn’t measure the errors that lead directly to goals against as not all turnovers are created equal.

Goals and assists are good estimates of contribution on offense but there’s no corresponding stat defensively.

Gardiner is an example of a player who has benefited greatly from his teammates and their offensive ability. He was never a top Pk guy and wilted under pressure consistently.

Liljegren on the other hand has been performing better as the playoffs go on and seems to thrive under pressure.

Oh I agree that everything we have measures correlation and not causality, but plus/minus is the worst - collects too little data to be useful, the little data it does collect literally cancels itself out (why have pluses and minuses in on category), no relative version, etc etc

goals and assist results also run through a huge filter of luck in samples less than a hundred games or so - like both Pettersson and Laine were pacing for ridiculous point/goal totals in their rookie years and drawing comparisons to all time great players while riding absolutely unsustainable shooting %'s, just a larger percentage of the pucks they were putting on net were going in than would over a longer timeline and it had nothing to do with their performance. (not to say they aren't very good players, just highlighting the role that luck plays). But, the concept of a goal-against assist is interesting I guess.

I'll very much disagree on what Gardiner is, he usually had to carry bad D partners and did that most of the time in a really high-event manner that would lead to memorable mistakes at times - high average with high peaks and low valleys. His offensive talent is obvious though, he makes stretch passes that few dmen can, handles the puck well outside of his own zone, has a very good eye for distribution in the offensive zone and a pretty good shot on all fronts. I agree on the Pk part. It doesn't matter anymore anyway for us.

I do see a lot of Gardiner in Liljegren's game until recently with high risk/low reward plays in dangerous areas, if Gardiner could just have simplified his game in his own end he would have been a top pairing defenseman, so let's hope that Liljegren can do that. High risk plays are a good thing where the reward for success is an offensive opportunity and the punishment for failure is neutral or defensive zone possession for the other team, they're not a good thing when the reward for success is neutral zone possession for us and the punishment for failure is a scoring chance against. Gardiner never seemed to make that distinction, he got better over time but not as much as he should have.

here's some examples for Liljegren (around 0:22, 0:45, 2:00):

 

[RoadWarrior]

Oh I agree that everything we have measures correlation and not causality, but plus/minus is the worst - collects too little data to be useful, the little data it does collect literally cancels itself out (why have pluses and minuses in on category), no relative version, etc etc

goals and assist results also run through a huge filter of luck in samples less than a hundred games or so - like both Pettersson and Laine were pacing for ridiculous point/goal totals in their rookie years and drawing comparisons to all time great players while riding absolutely unsustainable shooting %'s, just a larger percentage of the pucks they were putting on net were going in than would over a longer timeline and it had nothing to do with their performance. (not to say they aren't very good players, just highlighting the role that luck plays). But, the concept of a goal-against assist is interesting I guess.

I'll very much disagree on what Gardiner is, he usually had to carry bad D partners and did that most of the time in a really high-event manner that would lead to memorable mistakes at times - high average with high peaks and low valleys. His offensive talent is obvious though, he makes stretch passes that few dmen can, handles the puck well outside of his own zone, has a very good eye for distribution in the offensive zone and a pretty good shot on all fronts. I agree on the Pk part. It doesn't matter anymore anyway for us.

I do see a lot of Gardiner in Liljegren's game until recently with high risk/low reward plays in dangerous areas, if Gardiner could just have simplified his game in his own end he would have been a top pairing defenseman, so let's hope that Liljegren can do that. High risk plays are a good thing where the reward for success is an offensive opportunity and the punishment for failure is neutral or defensive zone possession for the other team, they're not a good thing when the reward for success is neutral zone possession for us and the punishment for failure is a scoring chance against. Gardiner never seemed to make that distinction, he got better over time but not as much as he should have.

here's some examples for Liljegren (around 0:22, 0:45, 2:00):

That’s a really good clip from a time when Liljegren was struggling a bit with a heavier workload but you can see the raw potential.

Now he’s starting to dominate every game.

Gardiner to me represents a wasted opportunity. Top pairing talent but lacking a high end processor to consistently make the best play.

Until the last couple of months it looked like Liljegren might be another Jake but he seems to have turned a corner and now he looks like a complete player.

 

[WillNy29]

His career -10 in game 7’s say you’re wrong.

Hey lets take 3 games over a span of over a career spanning 577 games both regular season and playoffs and use a flawed stat in them to say someone is bad at defence; something tells me math and statistics is not your forte...

 

[Orfieus]

I honestly thought Liljegren was a RHD Gardiner but Lilly might be a lot better defensively then Gardiner and at least as skilled as Gardiner with the puck. If there is a heavy forecheck he just shakes his hips, does a spin and either passes it out of the zone or skates it out himself.
If Liljegren plays like how he is in the AHL in the NHL he is a legit top line RHD but he is going to be at least a 3/4 RHD without question

 

[JT AM da real deal]

The kid deserves a thread. He has been absolutely tremendous in the playoffs, and frankly since the 2nd half began. He isn’t putting up a lot of points, but his overall game has improved so much. He is playing extremely tough minutes, and is excelling. Sandin is getting the hype as he should, but Lilly has outplayed him in the playoffs. It wouldn’t be a stretch to say Lilly has been the best player for the Marlies, when not talking about Kask.

CF%: 65.2(1st)
OZ%: 51.9(2nd lowest)

Sheldon Keefe has had great things to say about him, and how far he has come defensively. Here is what he said on Overdrive “while he doesn’t have the statistical piece, he has taken such a large step in his ability to defend. His ability to take on big minutes. Play against the other teams best players, and he’s played on our top pair this year through the playoffs in very difficult matchups, and has handled it extremely well.

Has this just come on recently?
“Absolutely, LIljegren didn’t have a great start to the year, and he had his own injury problems. The high ankle sprain really set him back a number of weeks. Through that time, I’m not sure if it was the additional time in the gym, or the time with the skilled coaches, or just the time away from the daily grind in the daily schedule, when he came back from that injury, he had gotten better every time out. I think he’s playing his best hockey for us right now. That really helped us turn the corner. It was like adding a defenceman to our lineup that was really able to take on these minutes. We were giving him these minutes early in the season, but it wasn’t going as well, and it was hurting our team, but he has really stabilized his game, and taken very big steps, and our team has benefited from it.
The thing that stands out is Liljegren was struggling at the start as Keefe said, and as another poster said, people like Dreger and Friedman have stuck by that, even though he is playing really well right now.

It wouldn’t be a stretch to say Lilly has been the best player for the Marlies, when not talking about Kask---Why do you keep putting forward this agenda? Keefe plays Sandin more minutes than anyone else on the team. Sandin plays every critical moment in the game including at end of game to preserve the wins. Sandin controls the puck and the game. MLSE sports science tracks who has puck on their stick for most of game and guess who leads team by over 2X the next closest guy? I like Lily too but you are over hyping him. He has dropped to a clear 2nd with Leafs. From what I can see he will get another year of development to work on his balance and puck possession skills. But my sources tell me the Leafs will keep both Sandin and Lily in minors for one more year. Sandin was almost called up this year by Dubie but apparently he had second thoughts. I think they knew this was not our year so why waste one. Next year they will both get likely less than 9 games each to show their stuff at NHL level.

 

[francis246]

Touting Jake Gardiner as some defensive stalwart is a very weak argument.

no one said he was, but he's def not worse than Lilgejren. And touting Jake as a player who can't play hockey is also a weak argument. He is a very capable defenseman.

 

[kb]

It wouldn’t be a stretch to say Lilly has been the best player for the Marlies, when not talking about Kask---Why do you keep putting forward this agenda? Keefe plays Sandin more minutes than anyone else on the team. Sandin plays every critical moment in the game including at end of game to preserve the wins. Sandin controls the puck and the game. MLSE sports science tracks who has puck on their stick for most of game and guess who leads team by over 2X the next closest guy? I like Lily too but you are over hyping him. He has dropped to a clear 2nd with Leafs. From what I can see he will get another year of development to work on his balance and puck possession skills. But my sources tell me the Leafs will keep both Sandin and Lily in minors for one more year. Sandin was almost called up this year by Dubie but apparently he had second thoughts. I think they knew this was not our year so why waste one. Next year they will both get likely less than 9 games each to show their stuff at NHL level.

I'm hoping Lily shows well enough in camp that he could play with either Dermott or Muzzin. That would be a huge boon to the team in terms of keeping the cap in line and having a RD who doesn't treat the puck like it's a grenade.

My main concern with this scenario is that I'm worried Hainsey will be resigned, and then by default he will have to be on the top pairing again with Rielly.

 

[Morgs]

Gardiner always has great defensive metrics. He's not good defensively in the old school blocking, takeaways, dumping the puck out ways, but he's constantly in tough comp and gives up far less shots/chances than other guys in similar minutes.

Realistically that's what you want from guys these days, don't allow shots/chances and hope that correlates to low goals against - which for Gardiner it almost always does.

I'd be ecstatic if Liljegren ended up as Gardiner 2.0, except right handed. IMO I see him more as Josh Morrissey, which isn't AS good, but still great.

 

[diehardleafsfan9878]

It wouldn’t be a stretch to say Lilly has been the best player for the Marlies, when not talking about Kask---Why do you keep putting forward this agenda? Keefe plays Sandin more minutes than anyone else on the team. Sandin plays every critical moment in the game including at end of game to preserve the wins. Sandin controls the puck and the game. MLSE sports science tracks who has puck on their stick for most of game and guess who leads team by over 2X the next closest guy? I like Lily too but you are over hyping him. He has dropped to a clear 2nd with Leafs. From what I can see he will get another year of development to work on his balance and puck possession skills. But my sources tell me the Leafs will keep both Sandin and Lily in minors for one more year. Sandin was almost called up this year by Dubie but apparently he had second thoughts. I think they knew this was not our year so why waste one. Next year they will both get likely less than 9 games each to show their stuff at NHL level.

1. Lily is also on the ice at the end of games to preserve wins. They've been partners since Rosen got injured but before that it was Rosen and Lily tasked with closing out wins. 2. Care to share the TOI splits as it pertains to PP, PK, EV? Sandin plays the most PP minutes, probably averaging 5 minutes on the powerplay per game whereas Lily would be around 2 maybe less. Lily plays more on the penalty kill average is probably around 2:30 minutes per game, Sandin would be around 1:30. This would give Sandin +2 minutes on special teams for ice time. At even strength they are partners so the ice time difference would be caused from long shifts, getting stuck on for icings and things of that sort.

Edit

It would also be nice to see shift length as Sandins shifts seem to be longer than Lily's as well.

 

[The Man with a Plan]

It’s useful when the minuses are related to turnovers by that player.

That's a very selective and narrow way of looking at things.

Guy steps on the ice caught on a bad line change and doesn't even get into the play before it's in the back of the net. Doesn't mean he is terrible. Just unlucky.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

It would have been really interesting to see where he'd be right now if he didn't miss key development time due to injury. He looks dominant in the AHL and ready to take the next step in the fall as is

 

[RoadWarrior]

It wouldn’t be a stretch to say Lilly has been the best player for the Marlies, when not talking about Kask---Why do you keep putting forward this agenda? Keefe plays Sandin more minutes than anyone else on the team. Sandin plays every critical moment in the game including at end of game to preserve the wins. Sandin controls the puck and the game. MLSE sports science tracks who has puck on their stick for most of game and guess who leads team by over 2X the next closest guy? I like Lily too but you are over hyping him. He has dropped to a clear 2nd with Leafs. From what I can see he will get another year of development to work on his balance and puck possession skills. But my sources tell me the Leafs will keep both Sandin and Lily in minors for one more year. Sandin was almost called up this year by Dubie but apparently he had second thoughts. I think they knew this was not our year so why waste one. Next year they will both get likely less than 9 games each to show their stuff at NHL level.

If the leafs are tight to the cap they may be forced to call them up.

 

[RoadWarrior]

That's a very selective and narrow way of looking at things.

Guy steps on the ice caught on a bad line change and doesn't even get into the play before it's in the back of the net. Doesn't mean he is terrible. Just unlucky.

Good data is selective and narrow.

That's why the traditional plus minus stats aren't very relevant. What matters are plays by individual players that lead directly to goals against.

 

[MapleLeafs9]

Stralman is falling apart at the seems the last few seasons. Stralman of 3 years ago would be great.

Honestly just pair him with Muzzin for some shutdown 5 on 5 minutes once and a while.

Can't be any worse than Zaitsev or Hainsey. Plus he is a right handed shot.

 

[Randy Randerson]

That’s a really good clip from a time when Liljegren was struggling a bit with a heavier workload but you can see the raw potential.

Now he’s starting to dominate every game.

Gardiner to me represents a wasted opportunity. Top pairing talent but lacking a high end processor to consistently make the best play.

Until the last couple of months it looked like Liljegren might be another Jake but he seems to have turned a corner and now he looks like a complete player.

agree with that, Liljegren seems to be learning the lessons that took Gardiner too long to pick up. They have a similar raw tool package, both had/have great potential, Gardiner turned out to be a pretty good player but nowhere near what he could have been. Liljegren's progress on the defensive side makes me hopeful he might end up closer to his ceiling than Gardiner did, and if he does I won't be surprised if Liljegren is our #1D at some point in his career

 

[MyBudJT]

I wonder how much having Sandin in our organization benefits Liljegren.

Both similar aged players that could be pushing eachother to be better.

 

[Papi 4 Hart]

Gardiner is so much more Tentative and hesitant than Liljegren. Really two different styles of puck moving.

Gardiner does use his skating to his advantage. He allows the opposition to initiate contact and tries to hold them up with the puck which turns an easy puck retrieval into a puck battle.

Liljegren is much more decisive and uses his skating to avoid puck battles. This is much more effective in tight games and playoff hockey than the turnovers you usually see when Gardiner is under pressure.

 

[Funk21]

Can't be any worse than Zaitsev or Hainsey. Plus he is a right handed shot.

Hainsey is just not a first pairing guy and consistently was out there. If we can somehow magically get rid of Zaitsev and sign Hainsey to a relatively cheap contract I would be happy to have him on the third pairing. Liljegren with Muzzin would be a great pairing but it still leaves us with Issues on our first pairing.

 

[Eye Test]

Gardiner is so much more Tentative and hesitant than Liljegren. Really two different styles of puck moving.

Gardiner does use his skating to his advantage. He allows the opposition to initiate contact and tries to hold them up with the puck which turns an easy puck retrieval into a puck battle.

Liljegren is much more decisive and uses his skating to avoid puck battles. This is much more effective in tight games and playoff hockey than the turnovers you usually see when Gardiner is under pressure.

The middle paragraph is just flat out wrong. Gardiner uses his skating to initiates contact ? That’s completely false.

 

[Wafflewhipper]

To much Gards talk and comparisons in this thread. Lilly talk for me should be based strictly on Keefe's analysis.

Keefe articulated well on his development over a full season. He touched on injuries, he touched on Lilly's training, he touched on lilly hurting the team in big minutes situations earlier in the season, he touched on not knowing why the light went on but assumed the training and time to reflect during injury and strengthening up all had something tp do with it.

Then he touched of how much he depends on him now and that he is better right now. He trusts him filly right now. So as long as Lilly is retaining and processing why he is being successful now is the biggest thing.

They will absolutely be looking for that retention in his game come yraining camp. Its impressive improvement and development that will and should be tracked and reinforced further as he continues development.

He has made a breakthrough and thats part of the process in development.

There is very very solid development to reinforce the player. The coaches and development staff use that good play as a tool now. Before they didn't have a good sample size of tape where he is playing successfully. Now they do. Thats great.

That matters, Gardiner comparisons don't matter. Continuity and good development habits matter. Making the team out of camp doesn't matter because we know they will only play him when he is ready.

He's a smart player in terms of setting development goals to go along with his coaches wishes apparently.

What a positive leap he had made. There are many Marlies developing really well. The coaches and development staff there are doing a nice job.

Brooksie and Timo are two players really flyong under the radar that the Marlies are working wonders with.Just wanted to put those two prospects out there. They will be part of managements longevity plan.

Ahhh yeah, this got long )

 

[Zybalto]

Like to see him up in this cap crunch year.

Im sure Dubas is looking for options but Hainsey was solid down the stretch and the playoffs so I would try and grab him for another year and:

Reilly/Hainsey
Muzzin/Zaitsev
Dermott/Liljegren

Looks good to me while Sandin marinates for a bit longer. Sandin may even be able to come in earlier if he continues his amazing progress.

Since the Muzzin trade, defense certainly hasnt been the biggest issue, thats for sure.

 

[stickty111]

I'm with the "Lilly is not better defensively then Gardiner"
Honestly, Jake's partners make him look worse then he is. When Zaitsev is not with him, Gardiner is a lot better.

 

[Papi 4 Hart]

The middle paragraph is just flat out wrong. Gardiner uses his skating to initiates contact ? That’s completely false.

Here is an example:

Puck is in the corner. Gardiner has two options.

Option 1 = retrieve puck and take hit.

Option 2 = slow down initiate contact first with opposing player so that he can bear hug him and go into the boards then take the puck.

He literally does option 2 90% of the time.

Instead of skating away and clearing space OR making quick play and taking hit he tries to draw opposing player in close and causes turnovers.