I'm not arguing against the inclusion of weights; I even gave reference to what kind of weights should be placed on a #1 overall seed. If the percent range I gave - 12-15% - is too low for your taste, I'm all ears for hearing why (not saying I'll agree, but I'll at least listen). I'm not going to suggest that the #1 overall seed and the #16 overall seed are both 6.25% likely to win the Cup from an expectation POV, a matchup POV, or a talent POV, obviously. Very, very rarely is a #16 overall seed going to be of Cup quality*. Understood. But my point, and what my (arbitrarily-selected) sample size indicated is that, even in a run of years where Presidents' Trophy teams have not been very successful, their success rate is still, well, pretty much in what I think is a reasonable range. And so, pardon my defensiveness which I admit is on display a bit, but, frankly, I feel like this argument that is raised across all sports about "well, the best team doesn't usually win" something people hang on as a lazy crutch to be critical and poke holes at the best team without making any real effort to poke, you know, actual holes and tell anyone legitimate reasons why they might not end up being as successful as they want to be.
The #1 overall seed in the NHL will, generally, be a very good team with Stanley Cup aspirations. You know who else will often get a tick on that checklist? The #2 overall team, and the #3, and odds are the teams from, I dunno, #4 down to #6-#7 or so. The Presidents' Trophy winning team of 2018 finished with 117 points. They were eliminated in a 7-game series at the hands of the #2 overall team, who finished with 114 points. Negligible difference. Upset in technical terms, not in qualitative terms; the difference points-wise between those teams is nothing more than a handful of OT and SO results going the opposite ways.
To briefly reiterate - the expectations in Tampa and outside Tampa alike are to win the Cup. We all expect it, and we'll all be disappointed if it doesn't happen. But, you know, odds are we're not going to do it. Because the odds are stacked against us. But the odds are stacked against everybody, individually. So it goes. Nothing of what I've said in this thread will dull the pain of losing, if and when that happens. No need to worry about that. These words form a very flimsy shield. Easily penetrated.
*and the one time we had a #16 overall reach the Final in recent years - '17 Nashville - it was generally understood they were a better team than their record indicated, and I expected them to beat Chicago in round one that year and then favored them in each successive matchup until the Final