Blue Jays Discussion: The Vladimir Guerrero Jr. injury overreaction thread

[zeke]

Last 2 Calendar years wRC+, remembering that 100 = league average.

LF Granderson 115
3B Donaldson 150
1B Smoak 119
DH Pearce 123
RF Hernandez 124
2B Solarte 107
SS Diaz 106
C Martin 104
CF Pillar 88

UT Travis 97
OF Grichuk 93
IF Tulowitzki 100
C Maile 48

X Morales 96


Last 1 Calendar Year

LF Granderson 118
3B Donaldson 145
1B Smoak 134
DH Pearce 118
RF Hernandez 153
SS Solarte 104
C Martin 103
2B Travis 95
CF Pillar 91

UT Diaz 84
OF Grichuk 88
IF Tulowitzki 80
C Maile 37



The team won't keep up its super hot "clutch" hitting, but it's a legit good offensive team.

 

[Loosie]

That is a stellar 80's pitcher stache on Sean Reid-Foley.

 

[Garlando]

Only guy I don't want is Gilbert. He screams Jon Harris/Deck McGuire.

No love for Larnach? The guy can seriously rake and we could use some lefty pop in the lineup.

I don't mind Larnach, the power is intriguing (70 raw) and he's finally tapping into it this year after hitting just 3 HRs in 198 ABs last year (already up to 10 HRs this year in 122 ABs). If the Jays were looking for a corner OF bat with power, I would prefer Greyson Jenista who is also a lefty power bat (65 raw) but also has way more mobility (55 run) and arm (55 throw) that makes him more of an asset in all facets of the game. Fangraphs just mentioned yesterday that Larnach wasn't a great corner OFer. Jenista has consistently performed better imo throughout their college careers, particularly in terms of contact:

BB% K% ISO AVG OBP
Larnach FR 11.8 25.4 .019 .157 .271
Jenista FR 14.7 12.8 .145 .326 .431

Larnach SO 15.7 21.4 .126 .303 .421
Jenista SO 11.8 16.9 .189 .320 .413

Larnach JR 16.7 19.5 .336 .336 .450
Jenista JR 20.1 16.6 .187 .295 .444

I'm buying the dude that has better contact skills and is more athletic over the dude that is more powerful at the plate. Just my opinion!

Also, I'm very much in on Rolison as a fit for the Jays. First, his scouting reports say he's a lefty that reaches 96 MPH with the fastball (neither Harris or McGuire had that sort of velocity), also has a plus curveball that is among the very best in the draft, and a changeup that Fangraphs just mentioned as being above-average. Add in a Slider too for good measure and he has a very impressive repertoire! He's also athletic with an easy delivery, and his numbers this year are strong despite some control concerns. 12.21 K/9, 3.61 BB/9, 0.52 HR/9, with a 3.27 ERA in the SEC in 52 innings so far. Not the same type of prospect that Harris and McGuire were as they both lacked impact out-pitches. I think Rolison has the out pitches needed to succeed, and he's already proving it well by pitching in the toughest NCAA conference and that makes him a more advanced option that would fit better with the upcoming core of Vladdy Jr and Bichette etc. while also being a lefty which besides Boruki and Pannone, the system lacks in quality.

 

[one77]

That is a stellar 80's pitcher stache on Sean Reid-Foley.

I still have hope that SRF turns into a gem for us. He's got the tools.

 

[metafour]

Fangraphs just dropped their first mock which is only 10 picks but packs some potential team/player connections, among which mentions that we are showing interest in Kumar Rocker and Connor Scott which are literally my two favourite options at #12 right now.

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018-mlb-mock-draft-v-1-0/

We have Rocker going eighth and Pittsburgh showing interest in him with the 10th pick. Toronto (12) is another distinct possibility as they’ve been showing a lot of interest in recent weeks. The Blue Jays are also rumored to be on Florida prep CF Connor Scott — as is Texas (15) among others clubs in the Nos. 10-20 range.

 

[deletethis]

That is a stellar 80's pitcher stache on Sean Reid-Foley.

I'll look past the 'stache if he has a slider like Dave Stieb's slider. Stieb's slider was so good that he could dominate while struggling with location.

 

[TheMadHatTrick]

I don't mind Larnach, the power is intriguing (70 raw) and he's finally tapping into it this year after hitting just 3 HRs in 198 ABs last year (already up to 10 HRs this year in 122 ABs). If the Jays were looking for a corner OF bat with power, I would prefer Greyson Jenista who is also a lefty power bat (65 raw) but also has way more mobility (55 run) and arm (55 throw) that makes him more of an asset in all facets of the game. Fangraphs just mentioned yesterday that Larnach wasn't a great corner OFer. Jenista has consistently performed better imo throughout their college careers, particularly in terms of contact:

BB% K% ISO AVG OBP
Larnach FR 11.8 25.4 .019 .157 .271
Jenista FR 14.7 12.8 .145 .326 .431

Larnach SO 15.7 21.4 .126 .303 .421
Jenista SO 11.8 16.9 .189 .320 .413

Larnach JR 16.7 19.5 .336 .336 .450
Jenista JR 20.1 16.6 .187 .295 .444

I'm buying the dude that has better contact skills and is more athletic over the dude that is more powerful at the plate. Just my opinion!

Also, I'm very much in on Rolison as a fit for the Jays. First, his scouting reports say he's a lefty that reaches 96 MPH with the fastball (neither Harris or McGuire had that sort of velocity), also has a plus curveball that is among the very best in the draft, and a changeup that Fangraphs just mentioned as being above-average. Add in a Slider too for good measure and he has a very impressive repertoire! He's also athletic with an easy delivery, and his numbers this year are strong despite some control concerns. 12.21 K/9, 3.61 BB/9, 0.52 HR/9, with a 3.27 ERA in the SEC in 52 innings so far. Not the same type of prospect that Harris and McGuire were as they both lacked impact out-pitches. I think Rolison has the out pitches needed to succeed, and he's already proving it well by pitching in the toughest NCAA conference and that makes him a more advanced option that would fit better with the upcoming core of Vladdy Jr and Bichette etc. while also being a lefty which besides Boruki and Pannone, the system lacks in quality.

Kiley's Top 10 Mock Draft

2018 MLB Mock Draft v 1.0 | FanGraphs Baseball

We have Rocker going eighth and Pittsburgh showing interest in him with the 10th pick. Toronto (12) is another distinct possibility as they’ve been showing a lot of interest in recent weeks. The Blue Jays are also rumored to be on Florida prep CF Connor Scott — as is Texas (15) among others clubs in the Nos. 10-20 range.

Yeah, baby! Please make it to us!

 

[ShaneFalco]

 

[zeke]

Last Calendar year, Jays Hitters vs Red Sox Hitters

LF Grandy: 527pa, 14.0b%/23.1k%, .244bip/.226avg, .255iso, 118wrc+, 3.3war650
2B Nunez: 500pa, 4.0b%/11.6k%, .327bip/.307avg, .164iso, 115wrc+, 3.0war650

3B Josh: 515pa, 15.1b%/21.9k%, .279bip/.264avg, .282iso, 145wrc+, 6.3war650
DH Martinez: 559pa, 10.2b%/26.7k%, .336bip/.304avg, .371iso, 164wrc+, 4.9war650

1B Smoak: 683pa, 12.3b%/20.5k%, .290bip/.270avg, .253iso, 137wrc+, 3.6war650
RF Betts: 739pa, 11.1b%/11.5k%, .273bip/.272avg, .218iso, 119wrc+, 5.8war650

DH Pearce: 355pa, 7.9b%/17.7k%, .288bip/.270avg, .219bip, 118wrc+, 1.5war650
3B Devers: 314pa, 8.0b%/23.6k%, .337bip/.281avg, .205iso, 113wrc+, 2.6war650

SS Solarte: 520pa, 8.8b%/12.3k%, .264bip/.261avg, .176iso, 104wrc+, 1.9war650
SS Bogaerts: 637pa, 8.8b%/18.5k%, .328bip/.276avg, .150iso, 102wrc+, 3.8war650

C Martin: 373pa, 13.1b%/22.5k%, .255bip/.222avg, .178iso, 103wrc+, 3.1war650
1B Moreland: 556pa, 9.9b%/19.8k%, .269bip/.244avg, .193iso, 98wrc+, 0.9war650

2B Travis: 204pa, 2.9b%/21.1k%, .313bip/.263avg, .179iso, 95wrc+, 2.2war650
LF Beni: 667pa, 11.5b%/17.1k%, .294bip/.263avg, .156iso, 102wrc+, 2.1war650

CF Pillar: 652pa, 5.4b%/15.6k%, .291bip/.262avg, .153iso, 91wrc+, 2.3war650
CF Bradley: 588pa, 8.7b%/21.8k%, .287bip/.242avg, .154iso, 89wrc+, 2.3war650

RF Grichuk: 454pa, 6.4b%/30.0k%, .270bip/.222avg, .232iso, 88wrc+, 1.4war650
C Vazquez: 381pa, 5.0b%/18.4k%, .325bip/.272avg, .095iso, 79wrc+, 1.7war650


UT Kendrys: 583pa, 6.9b%/22.5k%, .281bip/.250avg, .194iso, 96wrc+, -0.8war650
UT Hanley: 578pa, 8.7b%/21.5k%, .278bip/.248avg, .200iso, 99wrc+, 0.2war650

OF Teoscar: 115pa, 6.1b%/35.7k%, .379bip/.290avg, .355iso, 153wrc+, 5.7war650
IF Lin: 85pa, 14.1b%/25.9k%, .420bip/.292avg, .083iso, 112wrc+, 5.4war650

IF Diaz: 302pa, 5.0b%/14.9k%, .284bip/.261avg, .141iso, 84wrc+, 0.9war650
IF Holt: 183pa, 10.9b%/18.0k%, .254bip/.209avg, .063iso, 59wrc+, -3.2war650

C Maile: 161pa, 4.3b%/24.8k%, .245bip/.192avg, .099iso, 37wrc+, -0.4war650
C Leon: 290pa, 8.6b%/25.5k%, .268bip/.212avg, .115iso, 58wrc+, 0.0war650

Injured Longterm

SS Tulo: 213pa, 7.0b%/16.0k%, .274bip/.249avg, .122iso, 80wrc+, 0.3war650
2B Pedroia: 406pa, 10.8b%/10.1k%, .316bip/.296avg, .110iso, 108wrc+, 3.2war650

 

[Longshot]

Not just Morales tulo has to go also both of even at Travis onto this list

Yeah, great idea *eye roll*

Let's get rid of 27-year-old Travis, who in 163 career games is a .301/.342/.469 hitter. Not to mention he is the only second baseman on the team.

Who plays second when they get rid of him? Gift Ngope?

That would be some great asset management. Rob the organization of all the depth it carefully assembled during the winter after just 17 games because a player coming off a major injury is off to a slow start.

 

[Longshot]

I don't think it's much of a dilemma immediately. Teoscar is not going down on Friday when Morales comes back. If they send him back and keep Mayza, then they're nuts. Mayza has been here two weeks and appeared in one game, which was a blow out.

They clearly don't need an 8th guy in the pen at this point.

With Donaldson still on the DL and Martin and Travis resting every third day, they have enough opportunities to mix and match guys in the lineup to get enough at bats for everybody.

The crunch will come when Donaldson returns, especially if he can't play third every day. Richard Griffin had a good column on it today about how they could figure it out.

Teoscar Hernandez doing his best to force Jays’ hand | The Star

 

[BlueForever75]

Last 2 Calendar years wRC+, remembering that 100 = league average.

LF Granderson 115
3B Donaldson 150
1B Smoak 119
DH Pearce 123
RF Hernandez 124
2B Solarte 107
SS Diaz 106
C Martin 104
CF Pillar 88

UT Travis 97
OF Grichuk 93
IF Tulowitzki 100
C Maile 48

X Morales 96


Last 1 Calendar Year

LF Granderson 118
3B Donaldson 145
1B Smoak 134
DH Pearce 118
RF Hernandez 153
SS Solarte 104
C Martin 103
2B Travis 95
CF Pillar 91

UT Diaz 84
OF Grichuk 88
IF Tulowitzki 80
C Maile 37



The team won't keep up its super hot "clutch" hitting, but it's a legit good offensive team.

I don't see why not!!! The stretch they have been on has been without Travis, Tulo, Grichuk, Morales, Martin and Donaldson (to some degree) not doing what they normally do. When those players get hot, which they will. It will carry the others that are doing well which will slump later. Baseball is a game of streaks.

 

[ShaneFalco]

Gift should absolutely be the odd man out

 

[TheMadHatTrick]

Interesting thing I've found looking at Teoscar's PD stats. People say stuff like Teoscar is a free-swinger and that's why he strikesout a lot. He's actually right around league average at swinging at pitches in the zone vs pitches out of the zone.

His biggest problem is missing on pitches in the zone, but he's been much better so far this season.

For reference, these are the rough averages for plate discipline markers:

O-Swing: 30% (swings out of zone)
Z-Swing: 65% (swings in zone)
O-Contact: 66% (contact out of zone)
Z-Contact: 87% (contact in zone)
Contact: 80% (overall contact)
SwgStrk: 9.5% (swinging strike rate)

Teoscar (2017)
O-Swing: 32.6%
Z-Swing: 70.7%
O-Contact: 58.7%
Z-Contact: 73.9%
Contact: 68.1%
SwgStrk: 16.6%

As you can see his swings on pitches outside the zone are around average as is his contact rate on pitches outside the zone.

The majority of his swings come on pitches in the zone, and he's above league average in that regard. Where the problem lies is in his propensity to swing and miss on those pitches or fail to make contact at below average rates.

Remember, this is a very mall sample (minors don't track this data) from a young and inexperienced player. It could improve with more experience, coaching, and better pitch recognition in the zone (knowing what pitches he can hit and can't). FWIW his zone contact and contact rate this season is right around league average (albeit in an even smaller sample size).

 

[Suntouchable13]

I am excited to watch how this series with the Yankees will unfold.

 

[Longshot]

Gift should absolutely be the odd man out

I wouldn't let him go and keep Mayza in order to get Morales back on the active roster, but I see your point.

I'm kind of curious why he's on the team. Serious question: is Gift considered a superior defensive player to the guys the Jays have at Triple A?

Both Espinosa and Urena are in Buffalo and I know both are capable of playing 2B/SS. I mean, coming out of spring training everybody assumed Espinosa was going to make the team as the back up.

 

[MapleLeafistan]

Jays have Yankees and Red Sox coming up back to back....should see what this team is really made of. Winning both series would be a huge.

 

[TheMadHatTrick]

I don't mind Larnach, the power is intriguing (70 raw) and he's finally tapping into it this year after hitting just 3 HRs in 198 ABs last year (already up to 10 HRs this year in 122 ABs). If the Jays were looking for a corner OF bat with power, I would prefer Greyson Jenista who is also a lefty power bat (65 raw) but also has way more mobility (55 run) and arm (55 throw) that makes him more of an asset in all facets of the game. Fangraphs just mentioned yesterday that Larnach wasn't a great corner OFer. Jenista has consistently performed better imo throughout their college careers, particularly in terms of contact:

BB% K% ISO AVG OBP
Larnach FR 11.8 25.4 .019 .157 .271
Jenista FR 14.7 12.8 .145 .326 .431

Larnach SO 15.7 21.4 .126 .303 .421
Jenista SO 11.8 16.9 .189 .320 .413

Larnach JR 16.7 19.5 .336 .336 .450
Jenista JR 20.1 16.6 .187 .295 .444

I'm buying the dude that has better contact skills and is more athletic over the dude that is more powerful at the plate. Just my opinion!

Also, I'm very much in on Rolison as a fit for the Jays. First, his scouting reports say he's a lefty that reaches 96 MPH with the fastball (neither Harris or McGuire had that sort of velocity), also has a plus curveball that is among the very best in the draft, and a changeup that Fangraphs just mentioned as being above-average. Add in a Slider too for good measure and he has a very impressive repertoire! He's also athletic with an easy delivery, and his numbers this year are strong despite some control concerns. 12.21 K/9, 3.61 BB/9, 0.52 HR/9, with a 3.27 ERA in the SEC in 52 innings so far. Not the same type of prospect that Harris and McGuire were as they both lacked impact out-pitches. I think Rolison has the out pitches needed to succeed, and he's already proving it well by pitching in the toughest NCAA conference and that makes him a more advanced option that would fit better with the upcoming core of Vladdy Jr and Bichette etc. while also being a lefty which besides Boruki and Pannone, the system lacks in quality.

Just to clarify, I compared Logan Gilbert from Stetson to Harris not Rolison who's a lefty as you mentioned. Gilbert is a big guy who throws 90-93 with four average or better pitches. The lack of a present plus pitch or elite velocity isn't too appealing as you're having to project a lot on a college pitcher. Then again Stetson has a history of late blooming pitchers (Kluber, Degrom)

Having said that, I'm iffy on Rolison too. I was high on him early in the season based on reports, but his command/control has been quite spotty. His fastball is graded 55-60 but watching him pitch he seems to overthrow it, selling out control for velocity. I think the pitch plays more at 50-55 (90-93) than a true 60 (93-95), which is still good but not elite even for a lefty.

His fastball also seems pretty hittable even in the peak velocity band as he has a tendency to elevate it. His curveball is elite though, I'll give him that. Possibly best lefty curve in the draft. The changeup flashes 55, but plays down because of his fastball command issues making it easier to read. I wouldn't complain if we took him at 12 as he's excellent value there, I just prefer other guys better.

 

[Morgs]

I'm glad they're looking at Scott, guy looks intriguing. Kiley & Eric have him at 10 and this is what they have to say about him:

Scott has been dogged by a couple minor injuries this spring, but his upside is arguably the highest amongst prep bats. He’s 6-foot-4, 170 pounds, with 70 speed and projects for above-average raw power and an above-average hit tool.

Seeing as how I don't see us getting Madrigal, Bohm, or Swaggerty, I'd love to see us get Scott. Love me some huge upside High School bats.

 

[Discoverer]

Yeah, the coming the roster "logjam" is a really, really simple fix: Mayza goes down for Morales, Ngoepe goes down for Donaldson.

 

[Eyedea]

Yeah, great idea *eye roll*

Let's get rid of 27-year-old Travis, who in 163 career games is a .301/.342/.469 hitter. Not to mention he is the only second baseman on the team.

Who plays second when they get rid of him? Gift Ngope?

That would be some great asset management. Rob the organization of all the depth it carefully assembled during the winter after just 17 games because a player coming off a major injury is off to a slow start.

You’re conveniently removing last season and the start of this season from Travis’ career numbers? Not to say that he can’t be good, but his plate discipline has gone down every year in the bigs. Maybe he needs glasses too.

 

[metafour]

I don't mind Larnach, the power is intriguing (70 raw) and he's finally tapping into it this year after hitting just 3 HRs in 198 ABs last year (already up to 10 HRs this year in 122 ABs). If the Jays were looking for a corner OF bat with power, I would prefer Greyson Jenista who is also a lefty power bat (65 raw) but also has way more mobility (55 run) and arm (55 throw) that makes him more of an asset in all facets of the game. Fangraphs just mentioned yesterday that Larnach wasn't a great corner OFer. Jenista has consistently performed better imo throughout their college careers, particularly in terms of contact

From a couple minutes ago:

Gilbert
Greyson Jenista did not make you updated top 50. What do you see that is keeping him from making that list?

Keith Law
He's not very good.

 

[TheMadHatTrick]

From a couple minutes ago:

Is this chat free? Anything of interest mentioned?

 

[metafour]

Is this chat free? Anything of interest mentioned?

Its right here:
Klawchat 4/19/18.

 

[Garlando]

From a couple minutes ago:

Interesting comment! I'd be curious to here why Keith Law feels that way. I'm not a scout by any means, and I'm not aiming this at you but just compared to Larnach this year who Kiley McDaniel is a big fan of...Jenista is walking more, striking out less, hitting for less power (which goes with scouting reports but Jenista still has 60-65 raw), and is more athletic and capable of playing some CF and would likely be a plus in RF with an above-average arm. Numbers aren't everything, I know that, but it's what we have. Watching Jenista swing isn't super pretty and I'm slightly concerned about how he drops down when he plants his right leg during his leg kick but the numbers show he's a quality prospect. I should also mention that Greyson Jenista was the MVP of the famous Cape Cod league this summer which has some big name past winners including Nick Senzel, AJ Pollack, Kolton Wong, Justin Smoak, and Evan Longoria among others. To say he's not good I think is a little hyperbole but I'm open to hear why Keith Law and others might feel otherwise. Also for reference, 2080 baseball has Jenista ranked ahead of Larnach in their top 125 draft rankings with both in the 20's which was released 9 days ago. 2018 MLB Draft: Ranking the Top 125 (Mid-Season) - 2080 Baseball