The top 2 Stanley cup favorites are Colorado and Tampa Bay - agree or disagree?

[bobholly39]

Going into the season, I think an overwhelming majority had these two teams as the top 2 cup favorites. Their arguments were pretty clear:

Colorado - defending cup champions. Stacked core of MacKinnon, Makar, Rantanen, etc. Very deep team, in what seemed to be another "weak" western conference

Tampa Bay - 2 cups and 3 straight finals. And they lost in the finals without their #1C. A few off-season changes, but still an extremely strong team with a terrific playoff pedigree

Both teams are doing good enough in the regular season so far, but not necessarily world beaters:

Colorado - 9th in the west and 19th in league for points, but 5th in west on p%. Obviously a few injuries, but I think most still expect them to easily make the playoffs, if not as #1 seed.

Tampa Bay - Was a bit of a rough start, but they've been doing better lately and are up to 6th in the east, and 9th overall in league.

Some other teams have manifested themselves so far in 2022. Boston and NJ are having insane regular seasons. Toronto and Vegas are doing well, Pittsburgh is hot again lately, etc.

So what would you say, roughly one third of the season in, do you still consider Tampa Bay and Colorado the top 2 Stanley Cup favorites for this year? Or has another team surpassed them? Have another 2 team surpassed them and neither/nor are a top 2 favorite anymore?

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[pcruz]

Going into the season, I think an overwhelming majority had these two teams as the top 2 cup favorites. Their arguments were pretty clear:

Colorado - defending cup champions. Stacked core of MacKinnon, Makar, Rantanen, etc. Very deep team, in what seemed to be another "weak" western conference

Tampa Bay - 2 cups and 3 straight finals. And they lost in the finals without their #1C. A few off-season changes, but still an extremely strong team with a terrific playoff pedigree

Both teams are doing good enough in the regular season so far, but not necessarily world beaters:

Colorado - 9th in the west and 19th in league for points, but 5th in west on p%. Obviously a few injuries, but I think most still expect them to easily make the playoffs, if not as #1 seed.

Tampa Bay - Was a bit of a rough start, but they've been doing better lately and are up to 6th in the east, and 9th overall in league.

Some other teams have manifested themselves so far in 2022. Boston and NJ are having insane regular seasons. Toronto and Vegas are doing well, Pittsburgh is hot again lately, etc.

So what would you say, roughly one third of the season in, do you still consider Tampa Bay and Colorado the top 2 Stanley Cup favorites for this year? Or has another team surpassed them? Have another 2 team surpassed them and neither/nor are a top 2 favorite anymore?

Tampa, at no point in the series, deserved to beat the Leafs.

They were otchanced at even strength, and their best players were neutered.

If not for 4 instances of 5 on 3, and a litany of questionable calls, Tampa loses the series in 6 games.

So, I don't see how they are favourites.

 

[bobholly39]

I say they remain the top 2 cup favorites.

My rationale - I am 99.9% convinced they both make playoffs. Both are expected to be fully healthy by playoffs (barring more bad luck, but everyone in the same boat this far out). When healthy, going into the playoffs, I pick them above anyone else.

If you disagree, please post who you think are your top 2 favorites at this point in the season. I suspect Boston/Vegas might be popular choices with some?

 

[TruePowerSlave]

I don't see it with Tampa this time. The runs have taken a toll and the departures don't help. A strong deadline would change things though.

The Avs are right there as the top team in the west as long as they get healthy.

 

[bobholly39]

Tampa, at no point in the series, deserved to beat the Leafs.

They were otchanced at even strength, and their best players were neutered.

If not for 4 instances of 5 on 3, and a litany of questionable calls, Tampa loses the series in 6 games.

So, I don't see how they are favourites.

Good teams simply find ways to win.

 

[pcruz]

Good teams simply find ways to win.

Play that series a dozen times in a simulator, with all the same stats, shots, hits, etc and Toronto wins 7 or 8 if those series.

It's not that Tampa was blown out by any stretch, but I see no reason why an even weaker Tampa would be favourited over an equal or arguably stronger opponent.

They would more heavily favourited against Florida, yes. Ditto with the Rangers.

But Boston would also be nearly equal

 

[SensFan4lyfe]

Good teams simply find ways to win.

Tampa is starting to fall off

Colorado needs to replace Kadri and also they just lost Mackinnon

In the West I think Vegas is the favorite right now

In the east

Boston and New Jersey

But I think these two teams have there weak points also

Boston has a weak D but it can be fixed

Im not sure if New Jersey is ready yet, I think the Devils are going to win a few cups with that team I really like it

teams I consider close

Toronto I think it depends on what they do at the deadline if they add scoring depth I put them up there with Boston and New Jersey

Carolina if they get there shit together

Calgary
Florida

They've fallen off quite a bit

This is a perfect year for a dark horse team to make a move at the deadline and make a deep run and win the cup

To me that team is Winnipeg

I think an interesting stanley cup final would be

Winnipeg VS Toronto

 

[BB88]

To me Colorado needs a big boost to their top6 to be a legit Stanley Cup threat.

Tampa is starting to fall off

Colorado needs to replace Kadri and also they just lost Mackinnon

In the West I think Vegas is the favorite right now

In the east

Boston and New Jersey

But I think these two teams have there weak points also

Boston has a weak D but it can be fixed

Im not sure if New Jersey is ready yet, I think the Devils are going to win a few cups with that team I really like it

teams I consider close

Toronto I think it depends on what they do at the deadline if they add scoring depth I put them up there with Boston and New Jersey

Carolina if they get there shit together

Calgary
Florida

They've fallen off quite a bit

This is a perfect year for a dark horse team to make a move at the deadline and make a deep run and win the cup

To me that team is Winnipeg

I think an interesting stanley cup final would be

Winnipeg VS Toronto

Boston has weak defensw?

 

[JoeSakic13]

Colorado has too many key injuries to say for sure. Fully healthy they’ll still have a gap at 2C.

 

[SensFan4lyfe]

To me Colorado needs a big boost to their top6 to be a legit Stanley Cup threat.



Boston has weak defensw?

I mean with Injuries yes I think there are quite a few teams with better D than Boston

 

[bobholly39]

Play that series a dozen times in a simulator, with all the same stats, shots, hits, etc and Toronto wins 7 or 8 if those series.

It's not that Tampa was blown out by any stretch, but I see no reason why an even weaker Tampa would be favourited over an equal or arguably stronger opponent.

They would more heavily favourited against Florida, yes. Ditto with the Rangers.

But Boston would also be nearly equal

But if you replay the series in a simulator a dozen times, odds are Vasi has a shutout for 2 or 3 games. Or Kucherov takes over. Or Hedman shuts out Matthews/Marner. Or Point scores a bunch of goals. You can't just assume all stats/shots etc stay the same.

Not saying Toronto isn't a good team too, but there's a reason Tampa finds a way to win series and playoff games, even when you think they dont deserve it. That's what good teams do. And most of the time, they win and deserve to win too.

Colorado has too many key injuries to say for sure. Fully healthy they’ll still have a gap at 2C.

They have open capspace and rumors all year long have hinted they plan on making a big move.

Even though they may lack a 2C today, I think its quite likely they will fill that spot prior to trade deadline.

 

[dirtydanglez]

tampa is shot. avs are still a top team but not sure they are the favorite. have to see what they can do now they are getting players back.

 

[Isaac Nootin]

Until proven otherwise, yes.

 

[pcruz]

But if you replay the series in a simulator a dozen times, odds are Vasi has a shutout for 2 or 3 games. Or Kucherov takes over. Or Hedman shuts out Matthews/Marner. Or Point scores a bunch of goals. You can't just assume all stats/shots etc stay the same.

Not saying Toronto isn't a good team too, but there's a reason Tampa finds a way to win series and playoff games, even when you think they dont deserve it. That's what good teams do. And most of the time, they win and deserve to win too.

Good teams find ways to have their opponents go down by 2 players in over 50% of their games?
Including a near 2 minute instance of it while down a goal, in the last 1/3 of an elimination game?

Why don't all other teams just do that?

Tampa had a 5 minute major in game 1.
And they had 4 instances of 5 on 3.


Maybe the rest of the league needs to just emulate that!

 

[FrankSidebottom]

Colorado lost too many pieces to be considered a deep team, basically the entire second line. Tampa is not a powerhouse it used to be, but they are better.

 

[Colorado Avalanche]

I wouldn't rate them top2 right now, but a lot depends how injuries go and so on and what happens at trade deadline.

 

[SimpleJack]

It only took one comment for someone to turn this into a conversation about the leafs. I’m shocked.

 

[BB88]

I mean with Injuries yes I think there are quite a few teams with better D than Boston

The defense is healthy?

 

[SensFan4lyfe]

The defense is healthy?

Oh thats not good then I thought they had some injuries

I havent been Paying much attention to boston

but yeah I think they need to add on Defense

 

[cneely]

I mean with Injuries yes I think there are quite a few teams with better D than Boston

There are maybe 1 or 2 teams that can roll out a top 2 similar to McAvoy and Lindhom.

 

[pcruz]

It only took one comment for someone to turn this into a conversation about the leafs. I’m shocked.

What's so surprising?

The question was whether Tampa was a cup favourite and I responded with my opinion that they should not have beaten their first round opponent last year and after getting worse this season, I think it folly to assume they are cup favourites.

I'm not sure I understand what shocked you though.
Please elaborate.

 

[Mickey Marner]

I don't think either is a tier ahead of Boston, Carolina or Vegas.

 

[SensFan4lyfe]

It only took one comment for someone to turn this into a conversation about the leafs. I’m shocked.

no one made anything about the leafs all i said is i think there a favourite

if they add some pieces

the hate for the leafs astounds me

there a good team i like what they have im a sens fan but i can be realistic and biased in my approach

There are maybe 1 or 2 teams that can roll out a top 2 similar to McAvoy and Lindhom.

you need depth to win a cup, i think boston needs to shore up there D

 

[Sky04]

Easily yes, especially with how thr embarrassed Toronto in their sleep.

Tampa is starting to fall off

Colorado needs to replace Kadri and also they just lost Mackinnon

In the West I think Vegas is the favorite right now

In the east

Boston and New Jersey

But I think these two teams have there weak points also

Boston has a weak D but it can be fixed

Im not sure if New Jersey is ready yet, I think the Devils are going to win a few cups with that team I really like it

teams I consider close

Toronto I think it depends on what they do at the deadline if they add scoring depth I put them up there with Boston and New Jersey

Carolina if they get there shit together

Calgary
Florida

They've fallen off quite a bit

This is a perfect year for a dark horse team to make a move at the deadline and make a deep run and win the cup

To me that team is Winnipeg

I think an interesting stanley cup final would be

Winnipeg VS Toronto

You're talking like Mackinnon is done for the season, I mean you probably wish so but anyone with reading skills would tell you he's back within 4 weeks.

 

[BlackFrancis]

you need depth to win a cup, i think boston needs to shore up there D

This is an excellent point. Most playoff teams with have their 7th and 8th defensemen far more experienced than Boston's, with the relatively green Mike Reilly and Anton Stralman and their near 1,400 NHL games played.