Speculation: The Reto Tank Method

[Pirate King Luffy]

Every theory needs evidence to support it. We're seeing some evidence right now, even if the theory is not well supported. I think most of us agree that the Flames organization could have done more to tank if that was the ultimate goal, given how we've exceeded expectations this season if anything and retained our best players when other teams didn't.

While I think the conclusions of this data is a stretch, I'm not too close minded to entertain them. Mind you, I use an open mind to make the right decisions

I am a very open minded person, but I think this is very dumb. Maybe they just wanted to split games between them and Berra just wasn't that very good he was advertised to be? I bet Burke was ******** bricks when we was offered a 2nd.

 

[MarkGio]

I am a very open minded person, but I think this is very dumb. Maybe they just wanted to split games between them and Berra just wasn't that very good he was advertised to be? I bet Burke was ******** bricks when we was offered a 2nd.

Perhaps. I think this data could be presented differently. I recall MacDonald and Berra getting more starts than Ramo in the first 2 months of the season, then Macdonald was demoted and Ramo gradually became the starter. If I was a betting man, Ramo didn't have the same number of starts as Berra until February. If Ramo was always the better goalie, it certainly raises questions, but how do we prove that?

The problem with the OP is that it over simplifies things. For example, if someone were to suggest that Ramo has started against weaker teams than Berra, the data couldn't refute that. Or one could ask: has the team played better in front of Ramo?

Id argue the Flames have played their best hockey post trade deadline, all while Ramo has received the bulk of his starts, thereby inflating his numbers. Had Ramo received all the starts in October, we might be seeing worse numbers.

 

[Lunatik]

You should also look at goal support. There was a stretch in December I think where Berra was playing lights out and the Flames literally couldn't score a goal. Berra struggled on occasion, but so was Ramo until the new year.

 

[tfong]

Pretty stretch theory. I think they played Berra to see what they had in him.

 

[Johnny Hoxville]

This was Berra's first season in the NHL, there is such a huge difference for goalies playing in NA vs Europe. They stay in their net much more over there and the angles are completely different. The learning curve is huge and the only way to adjust properly is to play.

It is much more plausible to think that considering Feaster had just traded for Berra (largely in part because Hartley had faced him many times in Europe and had a very good scouting report on him) and also because he was going to become a UFA. The Flames wanted to see what they had in Berra and whether or not he was worth keeping going forward. This season has largely been about evaluation, but that in no way equates to intentional tanking. Look at how the Flames play, relentless quit. Look at Burke says, he loses sleep when we lose. Hartley cancelled a practice because he didn't like the teams effort. When you look the actual product, it becomes as clear as day that there was no kind of "conspiracy" or intentional losing going on. The culture the Flames are trying to build is about winning and I cannot see how the suggestion of otherwise could be warranted.

 

[Lunatik]

You should also look at goal support. There was a stretch in December I think where Berra was playing lights out and the Flames literally couldn't score a goal. Berra struggled on occasion, but so was Ramo until the new year.

Just to show what I am talking about I have some numbers to back it up.

Reto Berra was the goaltender of decision in 28 games. He won 9 and lost 19 of these games. When you present it like that yeah it looks bad, but a goaltenders record is a team stat because goaltenders can't score the goals needed to win.

I knew he received horrible goal support but when I looked up the numbers here it was shocking. His overall goal support was approximately 2 goals per game. But when you look at the goal support in the wins and losses it is staggering.

In Berra's 9 wins the team scored a total of 32 goals (3.555 per game), in Berra's 19 losses the team scored a mere 22 goals (1.158 per game). THAT IS 10 FEWER GOALS IN 10 MORE GAMES!!!! He had a 6 game stretch in Dec/January where the Flames were shutout 4 times!

No goaltender is going to look good in those circumstances.

 

[47]

When you have a rookie goalie on an expiring contract that you traded a Canadian Olympic calibre dman in a package for you need to see what you have in this asset...

Playing Berra more was simply due to the fact that Ramo had a 2 year deal and Berra only have a 1 year deal.

If Berra was the guy you needed to find out this season because he was set to be a UFA..

It all worked out anyway cause we got a 2nd round pick for him!!!

 

[SmellOfVictory]

Id argue the Flames have played their best hockey post trade deadline, all while Ramo has received the bulk of his starts, thereby inflating his numbers. Had Ramo received all the starts in October, we might be seeing worse numbers.

It's certainly true that the Flames have been better since the trade deadline. That said, when Ramo and Berra's performances were being tracked early in the season, Ramo still had a better save percentage at even strength, indicating from the outside that he was likely a better option as a starter. That, in addition to the fact that he didn't lose his net a dozen times per game.

But I do agree that it's entirely possible/likely that the Flames played Berra so much to see what they had in him. While he was obviously not NHL calibre in his overall play, he does have extremely good athleticism. That's a tempting quality in a goaltender, as it means the difference between a good and elite tender in many cases (as long as they can figure out positioning, rebound control, etc).

 

[TheHudlinator]

Was it a conspiracy to make us lose by playing Berra? No I don't think so.

Was it odd Hartley game Berra such a long leash? Yes I think it was.

Didn't Kerr say that Ramo had offseason ankle surgery? If so then Berra getting a longer leash makes sense, since Ramo wouldn't be 100%.

Edit:

He went into the season after off-season ankle surgery

http://www.calgarysun.com/2014/04/06/five-burning-questions-facing-calgary-flames-april-7

I just saw this in the sun. Either the majority of us forgot about this or overlooked it but it makes Ramo getting a much more sheltered start make sense.

 

[Lunatik]

Didn't Kerr say that Ramo had offseason ankle surgery? If so then Berra getting a longer leash makes sense, since Ramo wouldn't be 100%.

Edit:
http://www.calgarysun.com/2014/04/06/five-burning-questions-facing-calgary-flames-april-7

I just saw this in the sun. Either the majority of us forgot about this or overlooked it but it makes Ramo getting a much more sheltered start make sense.

I never even knew that before. I'm not sure many did with the constant complaining about Ramo not starting a ton.

 

[Ace Rimmer]

Didn't Kerr say that Ramo had offseason ankle surgery? If so then Berra getting a longer leash makes sense, since Ramo wouldn't be 100%.

Edit:
http://www.calgarysun.com/2014/04/06/five-burning-questions-facing-calgary-flames-april-7

I just saw this in the sun. Either the majority of us forgot about this or overlooked it but it makes Ramo getting a much more sheltered start make sense.

What concerns me is the outright error in the article where he states:

Ramo is the only goalie in the system not signed for next season.

Pretty sure he had signed a two year deal last summer. (confirmed by Wikipedia lol and capgeek)

What else did the author "get wrong"?

 

[Lunatik]

What concerns me is the outright error in the article where he states:


Pretty sure he had signed a two year deal last summer. (confirmed by Wikipedia lol and capgeek)

What else did the author "get wrong"?

simple typo IMO. He is the only under contract. Mac is UFA, Ortio and Roy are RFAs

 

[swissexpert]

nice thread, had a good laugh
the funniest part is where all the numbers result in a fascinating result of
WITH RETO....1.000
WITHOUT...1.096
which is a mind blowing difference!

 

[GetThePuckOut]

Berra was simply better than Ramo for the early part of the season. In Ramo's first game he crapped the bed in the shootout, and when Berra took it to OT he was undefeated.

Hartley kept playing the hot hand, and oftentimes it was Berra. He'd keep starting them until they gave him a reason not to. That's all that happened.

 

[Lunatik]

Berra was simply better than Ramo for the early part of the season. In Ramo's first game he crapped the bed in the shootout, and when Berra took it to OT he was undefeated.

Hartley kept playing the hot hand, and oftentimes it was Berra. He'd keep starting them until they gave him a reason not to. That's all that happened.

yep, it just looked worse because Ramo was getting the majority of the run support so he put up more wins.