"The Process" (c. 2016)

[Whileee]

There have been reams of posts referencing Chevy's reference to the building of the team as being a "process". He's stuck to that line with almost comical consistency.

So, as we've completed 5 years of "the process" and head into season 6, it might be interesting to review what "the process" has yielded. First, we should perhaps define what we think Chevy means by "the process". My take is that it means a focus on drafting and developing players to fill out the roster (rather than focusing on trades and free agent acquisitions), along with a focus on trades that add to the "draft and develop" pool of players.

One way of reviewing the results of the process thus far is to review what has been acquired from each of the 5 entry drafts, either directly or through trades. To set the scene, it might be useful to consider what we might expect from a draft. A recent article indicated that looking at drafts between 1990 1nd 1999, only 19% of drafted players had played at least 200 NHL games (about 2.5 full seasons), which one could argue is the minimum success you would want from a young asset. Considering that the usual NHL draft is comprised of 7 picks, an NHL team can expect that on average they'll end up with 1-2 bona fide NHLers per draft. Let's put an optimistic face on drafting and suggest that getting 2 NHLers is decent, and anything more than that is "good".

Beyond just getting decent players, the draft and develop "process" should also yield some team cornerstones, in the form of #1C, #1D and starting goalies, along with some top-6 forwards and top-4 D.

Now, let's look at how the Jets have performed, organized by draft year. This requires some projection, and should spur some debate. I've annotated what I think each pick / prospects reasonable project might be. I'm sure that some will think I'm a bit optimistic, which should be part of the interesting discussion.

2011 Draft (3 NHLers)

Mark Scheifele (#7 overall) - Projection, #1C (not elite, but perhaps top 10-15 in the NHL).
Joel Armia (#16 overall, acquired from Buffalo) - Projection, bottom-6 F.
Adam Lowry (#67 overall) - Projection, bottom-6 F.

2012 Draft (2 NHLers)

Jacob Trouba (#9 overall) - Projection, top-pairing D (might be a #1D, but too early to judge)
Connor Hellebuyck (#130 overall) - Projection, starting goalie

2013 Draft (4 NHLers)

Josh Morrissey (#13 overall) - Projection, top-6 D (decent chance of top-4)
Marko Dano (#27, acquired from Chicago) - Projection, bottom to middle-6 F
Nic Petan (#43 overall) - Projection, bottom to middle-6 F
Andrew Copp (#104 overall) - Projection, bottom-3 F

(Eric Comrie, Tucker Poolman, Jan Kostalek might have NHL potential)

2014 Draft (2 NHLers)

Nikolaj Ehlers (#9 overall) - Projection, top-3 forward (winger)
Brendan Lemieux (#31 overall, trade from Buffalo) - Projection, bottom-6 forward

2015 Draft (2 NHLers)

Kyle Connor (#17 overall) - Projection, top-6 forward (winger)
Jack Roslovic (#25 overall) - Projection, middle-6 forward (wing or C).

(Foley, Spacek, Harkins might have NHL potential)

2016 Draft (1 NHLer)

Patrik Laine (#2 overall) - Projection, top-line forward (potential elite player)

(Stanley, Green might have NHL potential)

So, out of 6 drafts, the Jets look to have snagged at least 14 players with NHL potential (either with their own picks, or through acquisition of picks or prospects). If one or more of the other prospects pan out, then the Jets would be averaging about 2.5 NHL players per draft year over that time span, which would be considerably more than expected through strict percentages without acquiring extra picks, etc.

But, what about quality?

Here's a quick rundown of what they have acquired...

Top-6 forwards (4): Scheifele, Laine, Ehlers and Connor
Middle-6 forwards (3): Dano, Petan, Roslovic
Bottom-6 forwards (4): Armia, Lowry, Copp, Lemieux
Top-4 D (2): Trouba, Morrissey (maybe)
Goalie (1): Hellebuyck

Of course, they had to give up some value to acquire the extra picks and prospects. In this case, the three core players they've traded are Kane, Bogo and Ladd.

Bogo returned Myers, so I'll call that a draw.

Kane also returned Stafford, but I won't put much value on Stafford (though it could be argued that he has some value).

That means that the Jets traded Kane and Ladd for a total return of Armia, Lemieux, Roslovic, Dano and Stanley. In the short-term, the Jets have given up value. But considering contracts (Ladd signed a big, long UFA deal and Kane has two years before UFA), the longer term value appears to favour the Jets.

The substantial haul in young assets has meant that the Jets don't have to do much on the free agent market to supplement. However, nabbing and then re-signing Perreault to augment the middle-6 appears to have been a strong move. As a result, the Jets have an enviable mix of talent and depth at forward, and a very good top-4 on D, that might be supplemented soon with a good prospect in Morrissey.

Now, the challenge will be for Maurice to properly utilize the roster options he has. Will he do so? I think we'll start finding out rather soon. Here's what he has to work with (ages in parentheses).

Top-6 forwards: Scheifele (23), Wheeler (30), Little (27), Ehlers (20), Laine (18), Perreault (28), Connor (19), (Stafford (30))

Bottom-6 forwards: Dano (21), Burmistrov (23), Armia (23), Lowry (23), Copp (22), Petan (21), Matthias (28), (Stafford), Thorburn (33), Lemieux (20), Peluso (27), Tanev (24), Howden (24)

Top-4 D: Buff (31), Trouba (22), Enstrom (31), Myers (26)

Bottom-2 D: Morrissey (21), Chiarot (25), Postma (27), Stuart (32)

Goal: Hellebuyck (23), Hutchinson (26), Pavelec (29)

Click to read more...

 

[Aavco Cup]

A bit premature on some of your NHL'ers. There's still uncertainty with many. Good potential but some may not pan out.

 

[mcpw]

Atlanta, Summer 2011:

F
Little (23), Wheeler (24), Burmistrov (19), Thorburn (28)
Antropov (31), Kane (19), Ladd (25), Slater (28), Cormier (21), A.Stewart (26), Stapleton (28), Schremp (24), Maxwell (23), C.Klingberg (20), UFA Boulton (34), UFA Dvorak (34)

D
Enstrom (26), Byfuglien (26), Stuart (27)
Hainsey (30), Oduya (29), Bogosian (20), Zubarev (24), UFA Meyer (30)

G
Pavelec (23)
C.Mason (35)

Prospects
Postma, Chiarot, Melchiori
O'Dell, Machacek, Mannino, Kulda, Kozek, Telegin, Petterson-Wentzel, Cisse, McFaull, Lane, Owuya, Stoykewych, Pasquale, Sol, Bubnick, Koper, Samuels-Thomas, Leveille, D.Paquette, Saponari, Lasu, Carrozzi, Redmond, Lucenius, Albert, Holzapfel, O'Neill, Enlund, Kangas, Forney, Martin

 

[Whileee]

Atlanta, Summer 2011:

F
Little (23), Wheeler (24), Burmistrov (19), Thorburn (28)
Antropov (31), Kane (19), Ladd (25), Slater (28), Cormier (21), A.Stewart (26), Stapleton (28), Schremp (24), Maxwell (23), Klingberg (20), UFA Boulton (34), UFA Dvorak (34)

D
Enstrom (26), Byfuglien (26), Stuart (27)
Hainsey (30), Oduya (29), Bogosian (20), Zubarev (24), UFA Meyer (30)

G
Pavelec (23)
C.Mason (35)

Prospects
Postma, Chiarot, Melchiori
O'Dell, Machacek, Mannino, Kulda, Kozek, Telegin, Petterson-Wentzel, Cisse, McFaull, Lane, Owuya, Stoykewych, Pasquale, Sol, Bubnick, Koper, Samuels-Thomas, Leveille, Paquette, Saponari, Lasu, Carrozzi, Redmond, Lucenius, Albert, Holzapfel, O'Neill, Enlund, Kangas, Forney, Martin

Thanks. This is important context.

 

[Whileee]

A bit premature on some of your NHL'ers. There's still uncertainty with many. Good potential but some may not pan out.

Agreed. Obviously, the more recent ones are the most "iffy".

Which ones do you think are the least likely to pan out?

I also expect that we might have a few that emerge from outside the more obvious list. In any case, I think the main point is that there is a pretty good group of top-end forwards. Whether or not Morrissey makes it will make a big difference, considering the Jets relative lack of D prospects.

 

[Jetabre]

Title made me think of like a movie or book or something based on Chevy GMing the Jets.

"The Process".

 

[Puckatron 3000]

Generally agree with everything you wrote, Whileee.

regarding:

only 19% of drafted players had played at least 200 NHL games

I would expect that percentage to go up for teams that draft higher, and go down for teams that draft lower. Since the Jets have tended to draft high, it's tough to use that 19% average as a measuring stick for their draft performance.

What I can agree on though is the more qualitative statement that the Jets have taken strong advantage of their draft position during these Jets 2.0 formative years. And we very much appear set up for future success, barring issues like poor roster selection.

 

[Grind]

If you sear h my name on the trade board I did a break down of the first round pick by pick.

Someone else has a more in-depth listing of % of likely hood by pick or at least by round as this would be useful to determine a baseline of success using only their picks given there finishing locations and expected success given picks/players actually acquired (weighted for what types of pucks were acquired)

With this method you could see how much they increased their odds of success more accurately and wether or not they are trending in line with that increase

 

[Whileee]

Generally agree with everything you wrote, Whileee.

regarding:


I would expect that percentage to go up for teams that draft higher, and go down for teams that draft lower. Since the Jets have tended to draft high, it's tough to use that 19% average as a measuring stick for their draft performance.

What I can agree on though is the more qualitative statement that the Jets have taken strong advantage of their draft position during these Jets 2.0 formative years. And we very much appear set up for future success, barring issues like poor roster selection.

I think most first round picks hit, so the main issue relates to how high impact they are, I suppose. If 14 players make it from those drafts, it would be all of the 1st rounders and another 8 players over 6 drafts. Obviously, they are not all drafted by the Jets, but they come from those drafts.

 

[Whileee]

If you sear h my name on the trade board I did a break down of the first round pick by pick.

Someone else has a more in-depth listing of % of likely hood by pick or at least by round as this would be useful to determine a baseline of success using only their picks given there finishing locations and expected success given picks/players actually acquired (weighted for what types of pucks were acquired)

With this method you could see how much they increased their odds of success more accurately and wether or not they are trending in line with that increase

Thanks. I'll try to find it.

This article summarized the success rate of various NHL teams, which ranged from about 15% (Yotes) to about 31% (Sabres). Median success rate was around 22%. http://www.theartofscouting.com/default.aspx?p=nhlprospect

The Jets have juiced their chances by acquiring much higher value picks (1st and 2nd round) than they have traded away, along with trading for prospects that were high picks that they had scouted and had some confidence in (Armia, Lemieux and Dano).

In addition, based on performance since the draft, it seems that the Jets have out drafted their furst round position on at least 3 first round picks (Scheifele, Ehlers and Connor), hit on or above value on a couple more (Trouba and Laine), with Morrissey, Roslovic and Stanley remaining question marks.

 

[DeepFrickinValue]

Moving Moose to Winnipeg was big part of process as well. Should help with player development.

 

[Bristo]

I feel like the 'it's a process' thing is a bit dumbed down.

Maybe it’s the soccer tactician in me, but I see a parallel between what we’re doing as a club and what a good, tactical soccer team does on the pitch. It’s about awareness of what you have and being realistic in light of that.

In soccer, there are generally 4 phases in tactics when you are working out from your end. They are the Build Up, Consolidation, Incision, and Finish. In the Build Up, you are the farthest from goal, you have a long way to go, but a wrong move here can mean a catastrophic setback. Kind of like when we Acquired the Thrashers. This is where you see players kicking the ball around in the defensive half and seemingly not doing much, apparently wasting time. You have to take your time here, but basically this phase is about carefully moving on to Consolidation once you get your pieces in place. In soccer, pieces in place would refer to having players located advantageously on the field. In team construction, this would refer to having good players on good contracts that allow you to move forward and keep the momentum moving forward. Patience here is critical and can create a foundation that doesn't need to be addressed for a long, long time. Moving from Build Up to Consolidation requires recognition of the occasion to do so, and then deciding to do so. Consolidation is much like the Build Up, only now you are further down the line of progress. There are still a lot of decisions to be made and nebulous options. But again, as you add stronger pieces/strengthen positions you can support the move into Incision because of the foundation you have assembled behind it. Similarly to moving between Build Up and Consolidation, advancing to Incision from Consolidation requires the wherewithal to know that the time is right. When you don’t like what you have, you play the ball back and reset, but this rarely ends up with starting all over. It’s taking a step back to take two steps forward. By deciding that the core they were working with (Captain Ladd et al) couldn’t ever get them to Incision or Finish and retooling it the season after we made the playoffs ("youth movement"), we saw the Jets intentionally play the ball backward. By doing so, they moved pieces around, found some new pieces, and are on a very quick track to be deep into Consolidation and moving rapidly to Incision. I think that’s where we are. We’re not ready to contend for the cup, so we’re not moving from Incision to Finish, but I think that we’re definitely moving strongly from Consolidation to Incision, and that we’re turning on rapidly. When you move from Incision to Finish, you don’t always score but this is the point at which you recognize that it’s time to pull out the stops and go hard for the goal. This is where you might see a team builder buying big pieces at the trade deadline. Big moves.

The above things being understood, an excellent tactician will recognize when they do not have a sustainable Incision and will pull the reins a bit in order to allow the team to come and support. Once the support is there, you can move on from Incision to Finish with gusto because if you don’t score or if you turn the ball over or however you would describe a setback, it doesn’t have to be a catastrophe because you have the solid support to recover.

I might be way off base or might not have explained this the most effectively, but so far the behaviour of TNSE’s management group has been consistent with this.

 

[cbcwpg]

Title made me think of like a movie or book or something based on Chevy GMing the Jets.

"The Process".