OT: The Pittsburgher Thread: New Quarter Backs for the Handball team!

[MrBrightside]

Same way a team solves not having a franchise QB 80-90% of the time. Go back to the draft, don't make a hash of it this time.

If people want to say it makes sense to hit pause on that due to having a weak offence, and to rebuild that offence with cheap placeholders and then look for a QB to place in it, I'll say that sounds perfectly reasonable.

But that does mean this team isn't a win now team and it does mean there isn't a fix.



This. A hundred times this.

I'd also add my biggest worry is they like Wilson/Fields as more than stopgaps and will want to give multiple years to them at the slightest encouraging sign, and that the team isn't back on the QB hunt next year but instead getting comfortable in the Also Rans territory.

Only the most optimistic fans are suggesting that they "fixed" the issue this offseason. But you're not getting a viable starting option picking at 20 in this draft, so again, what are you saying they should have done? Overdrafted Penix or Nix and gone into the season with one of them and a journeyman backup/starter? Fields, while obviously not particularly likely to be the solution, still has more upside than anyone they'd get at 20, a pick they'd then not use on other spots of need as well.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Just to compare, here is how Ben ranked in his age 34 year among those same stats:

-Completion%: 14th
-TD: 6th
-TD%: 7th
-INT%: 21st
-Yards/game: 9th
-Passer rating: 11th
-QBR: 11th

Ben's numbers were a bit better but not to some absurd degree. And this was Ben with peak Bell and Brown, while Wilson was on an absolute mess of a Broncos team.

 

[Peat]

It's still confusing to me that Steelers fans here say Wilson's 66.4% completion%, 26-8 TD-INT ratio and 98 passer rating from last year is somehow a "bad QB".

Would I say Wilson is an amazing QB? Absolutely not, but he's also not a bad QB either. He's mostly middle of the pack statistically last year, all of his stats fall mostly in the 10-20 range:

-Completion%: 12th
-TD: 9th
-TD%: 3rd
-INT%: 10th
-Yards/game: 20th
-Passer rating: 8th
-QBR: 22nd

What makes Wilson a bad QB, exactly? I'd buy mediocre, but statistically he's not much worse than mid-30s Ben.

It's not necessarily that I think he's bad, it's that I think he's not good enough to give a win now window. Whether he's mediocre, bad, awful, actually kinda good just not good enough... all kind of not the point. He's not over the threshold of SB contender quality and that dictates the team's short term destiny and smart actions.

That said... using a mix of EPA and his previous coaches/other NFL teams' eagerness to employ him suggest there's some major problems there. QB stats in general seem treacherous given how much pivots on their circumstances, but the stats that try to drill deepest like him least and the professional lack of enthusiasm for him is really striking.

 

[bambamcam4ever]

It's still confusing to me that Steelers fans here say Wilson's 66.4% completion%, 26-8 TD-INT ratio and 98 passer rating from last year is somehow a "bad QB".

Would I say Wilson is an amazing QB? Absolutely not, but he's also not a bad QB either. He's mostly middle of the pack statistically last year, all of his stats fall mostly in the 10-20 range:

-Completion%: 12th
-TD: 9th
-TD%: 3rd
-INT%: 10th
-Yards/game: 20th
-Passer rating: 8th
-QBR: 22nd

What makes Wilson a bad QB, exactly? I'd buy mediocre, but statistically he's not much worse than mid-30s Ben.

It's impressive how you never include yards per attempt. 21st by the way. And sure there's worse QBs out there, he's not terrible but he's not "good" either. But he's continuing to decline and as things stand right now the Steelers have a below average OL and WR group. I don't see how this adds up to anything other than a bad offense

 

[xlm34]

It's still confusing to me that Steelers fans here say Wilson's 66.4% completion%, 26-8 TD-INT ratio and 98 passer rating from last year is somehow a "bad QB".

Would I say Wilson is an amazing QB? Absolutely not, but he's also not a bad QB either. He's mostly middle of the pack statistically last year, all of his stats fall mostly in the 10-20 range:

-Completion%: 12th
-TD: 9th
-TD%: 3rd
-INT%: 10th
-Yards/game: 20th
-Passer rating: 8th
-QBR: 22nd

What makes Wilson a bad QB, exactly? I'd buy mediocre, but statistically he's not much worse than mid-30s Ben.

His underlying numbers really aren’t good. If you apply a minimum attempts of 350 the only QBs he had a higher EPA/drop back than were Fields, Ridder, Dobbs, Howell, Young, and Zach Wilson. he was pretty much a check down merchant that took a ton of sacks last year.

Hope I’m wrong but I think people are going to be surprised when they actually watch him play.

I also kind of hate passer rating as a stat. In theory a QB could drop back to pass 30 times and get sacked and fumble 10 times, but as long as in the remaining 20 drop backs they have a good completion percentage with no interceptions they’ll have a good passer rating. It just doesn’t even come close to telling the whole story.

 

[Peat]

Only the most optimistic fans are suggesting that they "fixed" the issue this offseason. But you're not getting a viable starting option picking at 20 in this draft, so again, what are you saying they should have done? Overdrafted Penix or Nix and gone into the season with one of them and a journeyman backup/starter? Fields, while obviously not particularly likely to be the solution, still has more upside than anyone they'd get at 20, a pick they'd then not use on other spots of need as well.

I'll try and make this clearer.

I am not questioning whether they did the right thing. That part of it is irrelevant to what I'm saying.

I am questioning whether what they did put them in a good position. The sort of position where it makes sense to overpay to get missing pieces, to take this back to where it started.

 

[bambamcam4ever]

Just to compare, here is how Ben ranked in his age 34 year among those same stats:

-Completion%: 14th
-TD: 6th
-TD%: 7th
-INT%: 21st
-Yards/game: 9th
-Passer rating: 11th
-QBR: 11th

Ben's numbers were a bit better but not to some absurd degree. And this was Ben with peak Bell and Brown, while Wilson was on an absolute mess of a Broncos team.

Roethlisberger was top 13 in YPA each season from 2016-2018. But you are onto something, Roethlisberger's decline in his mid 30s was masked by having one of the greatest WRs of all time, Roethlisberger's numbers collapsed without him

 

[Empoleon8771]

It's impressive how you never include yards per attempt. 21st by the way. And sure there's worse QBs out there, he's not terrible but he's not "good" either. But he's continuing to decline and as things stand right now the Steelers have a below average OL and WR group. I don't see how this adds up to anything other than a bad offense

Okay? That's another stat that paints him as middle of the pack, but that's not "bad". I said most of his stats fall in the 10-20 range. He's a league average-ish QB, not a bad QB.

Roethlisberger was top 13 in YPA each season from 2016-2018. But you are onto something, Roethlisberger's decline in his mid 30s was masked by having one of the greatest WRs of all time, Roethlisberger's numbers collapsed without him

But again, those numbers aren't that much better than Wilson's. My point with the comparison though was this:

It's not necessarily that I think he's bad, it's that I think he's not good enough to give a win now window. Whether he's mediocre, bad, awful, actually kinda good just not good enough... all kind of not the point. He's not over the threshold of SB contender quality and that dictates the team's short term destiny and smart actions.

That said... using a mix of EPA and his previous coaches/other NFL teams' eagerness to employ him suggest there's some major problems there. QB stats in general seem treacherous given how much pivots on their circumstances, but the stats that try to drill deepest like him least and the professional lack of enthusiasm for him is really striking.

Was mid 30s Ben good enough to give a win now window with? Because statistically, Ben wasn't that much better in his mid 30s than Wilson has been.

Idk, the logic you're putting out there is basically just "anyone who doesn't have Patrick Mahomes isn't a win-now team", which I think is a crazy exaggeration.

 

[T1K]

Okay? That's another stat that paints him as middle of the pack, but that's not "bad". I said most of his stats fall in the 10-20 range. He's a league average-ish QB, not a bad QB.



But again, those numbers aren't that much better than Wilson's. My point with the comparison though was this:



Was mid 30s Ben good enough to give a win now window with? Because statistically, Ben wasn't that much better in his mid 30s than Wilson has been.

Idk, the logic you're putting out there is basically just "anyone who doesn't have Patrick Mahomes isn't a win-now team", which I think is a crazy exaggeration.

They have their minds made up about him. There’s no point in debating.

 

[Empoleon8771]

They have their minds made up about him. There’s no point in debating.

Honestly it's less about Wilson and more about the overall logic to me. I think Wilson is a super mid starting QB, so I don't think it's a stretch to say this team won't win a super bowl with him. But at the same point, I really don't see anything statistically that makes me think 2010s Ben was that much better than Wilson is today. Was he better? Yeah, but not a ridiculous amount.

The logic being applied here also implies that the Steelers were not a win-now team with Ben as their QB because Ben wasn't good enough, which is a bizarre take to have.

 

[T1K]

Honestly it's less about Wilson and more about the overall logic to me. I think Wilson is a super mid starting QB, so I don't think it's a stretch to say this team won't win a super bowl with him. But at the same point, I really don't see anything statistically that makes me think 2010s Ben was that much better than Wilson is today. Was he better? Yeah, but not a ridiculous amount.

The logic being applied here also implies that the Steelers were not a win-now team with Ben as their QB because Ben wasn't good enough, which is a bizarre take to have.

The amount of cap and assets the Steelers have allocated to QB is unprecedented considering their quality. The fact that have flexibility to do whatever they want after this year is a good thing. It blows my mind others can’t see how good of a situation this is. I think they’d rather have the comfort of knowing they have the same guy slated for multiple years, regardless if they’re actually any good.

 

[MrBrightside]

The amount of cap and assets the Steelers have allocated to QB is unprecedented considering their quality. The fact that have flexibility to do whatever they want after this year is a good thing. It blows my mind others can’t see how good of a situation this is. I think they’d rather have the comfort of knowing they have the same guy slated for multiple years, regardless if they’re actually any good.

They are spending next to nothing on the position, have no long term commitments at all, and gave up one 6th round pick for both of them combined. I mean, yeah, I'd rather have Mahomes or Caleb Williams, but they have upgraded the position at no cost and with no commitment.

 

[Empoleon8771]

For another point of comparison, Ben in the 2010s was basically just Jared Goff in the last 2 years:

2010's Ben: 65.0% completion%, 5.0 TD%, 2.3% INT%, 95.5 passer rating, 7.8 Y/A and 7.01 NY/A
Goff: 66.2% completion%, 4.9% TD%, 1.6% INT%, 98.6 passer rating, 7.6 Y/A and 6.96 NY/A

Is Goff a QB that you'd say gives this team a "win-now window" today? I really like Goff, so I'd say yes. But Goff is only probably in the 8-10 range for QB rankings, which isn't all that much higher than what Wilson is at this point.

Idk, I'd just like some clarity on what would be a "good enough" QB to create a win-now window for this team if Wilson doesn't qualify.

 

[Peat]

Was mid 30s Ben good enough to give a win now window with? Because statistically, Ben wasn't that much better in his mid 30s than Wilson has been.

Idk, the logic you're putting out there is basically just "anyone who doesn't have Patrick Mahomes isn't a win-now team", which I think is a crazy exaggeration.

Well, I'm glad that we're starting this from a sober and non-hyperbolic point.

Although yes, the thing is, the list of QBs good enough to make a team win-now isn't all that long. It's one of the things that draws me to the NFL, the way the league should operate due to the crazy importance of the position and the lack of people who can play it well enough... and how it operates instead.

Now, the list is manifestly longer than Patrick Mahomes (well, it is he stops being perfect on potential game-winning drives in the playoffs). With the right help, it very obviously goes down to QBs as talented as Jared Goff. By adjusted EPA, he was 12th in the league last season although guys right next to him go down to 16.

So maybe half the league has a win-now window, albeit pretty shaky in some cases? That's about the longest it could be put. It's probably shorter but let's go with 16 at longest.

Wilson wasn't in that 16. Not by adjusted EPA. Quite a way out. Unadjusted EPA or PFF grade lifts him closer, but any stat/underlying number trying to dig deeper than the surface says Wilson is not in that 16. Other stats will tell you different but I think them less trustworthy.

Now I can't tell you whether mid 30s Ben was good enough to have a win now window with. Wasn't there. But leaving aside the very large difference in their QBR (which presumably means EPA given the correlation), you've got a pretty loud no to Wilson from the NFL. I don't know what they'd have said to mid-30s Ben, but they've said no to Wilson. 1.2m QB and 31 teams don't want to sign him as a starter? That suggests the negative stats are more likely the correct one.

The amount of cap and assets the Steelers have allocated to QB is unprecedented considering their quality. The fact that have flexibility to do whatever they want after this year is a good thing. It blows my mind others can’t see how good of a situation this is. I think they’d rather have the comfort of knowing they have the same guy slated for multiple years, regardless if they’re actually any good.

If the best thing about a team's QB situation is the flexibility, then the situation is shit.

It beats being bad and inflexible, but getting poked with a blunt stick beats getting poked with a sharp stick too.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Back to the draft talks:



It sounds like the expectation is that 5 QBs are going to go in round 1 and teams are going to make a run on QBs and WRs in the 1st. That may benefit the Steelers greatly with someone like Mitchell falling to them at 20. I also think it makes an interesting discussion of whether the Steelers should trade down from 20 with a team who really wants to take a WR or QB at 20.

The risk though is that Miami and Dallas are sitting at 21 and 24 respectively and both are in the market for a C.

 

[Peat]

Back to the draft talks:



It sounds like the expectation is that 5 QBs are going to go in round 1 and teams are going to make a run on QBs and WRs in the 1st. That may benefit the Steelers greatly with someone like Mitchell falling to them at 20. I also think it makes an interesting discussion of whether the Steelers should trade down from 20 with a team who really wants to take a WR or QB at 20.

The risk though is that Miami and Dallas are sitting at 21 and 24 respectively and both are in the market for a C.

A run on WRs?

That tweet is talking about the 3 right at the top (well, two of them and Joe Alt twice). But there's not a whole bunch of WRs widely expected to go before 20 other than Harrison/Nabers/Odunze, right? Who are surely all off the board by 19. Beyond them, nobody will blink if Brian Thomas does and nobody will blink if he doesn't. Adonai Mitchell and the others feel that bit further removed again.

Getting those other WRs before 20 would be very nice for the Steelers' options for sure, but I can't say that tweet makes it look likely.

 

[Goalie_Bob]

Seems like Barton is the pick. But I don't think he will be, I think all the buzz is a smoke screen to get Mims. My final mock looks like this:

1: Amarius Mims
2: Ricky Pearsall
3: Max Melton
3: Hunter Nourzad
4: Luke McCaffrey
6: Jaden Crumedy
6: Steele Chambers

UDFA: Travis Clayton, Beanie Bishop

 

[Ulf5]

Seems like Barton is the pick. But I don't think he will be, I think all the buzz is a smoke screen to get Mims. My final mock looks like this:

1: Amarius Mims
2: Ricky Pearsall
3: Max Melton
3: Hunter Nourzad
4: Luke McCaffrey
6: Jaden Crumedy
6: Steele Chambers

UDFA: Travis Clayton, Beanie Bishop

Rapoport just confirmed Steelers have made calls to try to trade up fwiw on NFL network.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I think the Steelers are going for Mitchell in round 1 but end up getting Barton.

 

[Mr Jiggyfly]

It's still confusing to me that Steelers fans here say Wilson's 66.4% completion%, 26-8 TD-INT ratio and 98 passer rating from last year is somehow a "bad QB".

Would I say Wilson is an amazing QB? Absolutely not, but he's also not a bad QB either. He's mostly middle of the pack statistically last year, all of his stats fall mostly in the 10-20 range:

-Completion%: 12th
-TD: 9th
-TD%: 3rd
-INT%: 10th
-Yards/game: 20th
-Passer rating: 8th
-QBR: 22nd

What makes Wilson a bad QB, exactly? I'd buy mediocre, but statistically he's not much worse than mid-30s Ben.

I’ll be patient and give Wilson a chance, as I haven’t seen him play in a few years, unlike with Fields who I’ve seen and know he’s not a franchise guy.

However, many people who have seen Wilson play have basically said he’s a shell of his old self.

It’s been echoed by too many fans and Denver media I’ve read/heard that he:

- is Checkdown Charlie and can’t throw into the middle of the field anymore.

- holds the ball too long

- gets sacked way too much (stats back that up).

If he does well cool, but again getting Wilson seems like finding a half eaten sandwich in the street when you are homeless and starving.

 

[Mr Jiggyfly]

Roethlisberger was top 13 in YPA each season from 2016-2018. But you are onto something, Roethlisberger's decline in his mid 30s was masked by having one of the greatest WRs of all time, Roethlisberger's numbers collapsed without him

His decline was never masked by Brown.

Roth blew out his elbow and was never the same.

That started his decline because he had a noodle arm after his surgery.

AB on the other hand was garbage without Roth and out of the league a couple years after their last season together.

 

[Peat]

My guess for Steelers moving up would be Fuaga, but guess we'll see if it happens.

 

[Colonel Mustard]

Seems like Barton is the pick. But I don't think he will be, I think all the buzz is a smoke screen to get Mims. My final mock looks like this:

1: Amarius Mims
2: Ricky Pearsall
3: Max Melton
3: Hunter Nourzad
4: Luke McCaffrey
6: Jaden Crumedy
6: Steele Chambers

UDFA: Travis Clayton, Beanie Bishop

Steele chambers is a pretty badass name.

 

[WickedWrister]

This is fun, nobody really knows what player or even position we're taking. A departure from the last 3 years really.

 

[Peat]

This is fun, nobody really knows what player or even position we're taking. A departure from the last 3 years really.

Tbf they concealed that Pickett was their guy pretty well. But yeah, much more fun uncertainty right now.