HF Habs: The official 2023-2024 tank thread

[LaP]

here we go again with the lack of foresight to our team makeup. I repeat, we DO NOT want anymore small players... this has got to end once and for all. you know why Arizona is still dog shit? bc their top 2 players are small - Keller and Cooley. we already have CC, no more.

And here we go again woth people thinking all players are Jagr and can play until they are 45. Lawson Crouse type of players very often are done when they hit 30. It's not rare at all. Lawson has 3 seasons remaining until he is 30. This lineup is not ready before another 3 years. By the time we get there Lawson Crouse might very well be a cap dump. There's imo absolutely no reason to spend assets on him given where we are in our rebuild.

 

[themilosh]

I get that but Crouse is not the answer

i never said he was... but no no no to any player sub 6'0" 195lbs.

 

[themilosh]

And here we go again woth people thinking all players are Jagr and can play until they are 45. Lawson Crouse type of players very often are done when they hit 30. It's not rare at all. Lawson has 3 seasons remaining until he is 30. This lineup is not ready before another 3 years. By the time we get there Lawson Crouse might very well be a cap dump. There's imo absolutely no reason to spend assets on him given where we are in our rebuild.

when did i ever say I wanted Lawson? while I agree not every player has to be "tall/big" but there ahs to be a limit to how many small players we ink in to our top 9.

here are our sub 6' players.

there should be 3 max per team - Newhook is on the fence (he has good weight ratio) and suzuki is is perfectly fine at 212lb.. so I will exclude them.

Also, expect Hutson will be joining in soon....

why would we want Keller - when we already have dead weight (pun intended) with:
Gally, RHP, Harris (stephens and Gignac whatever).

 

[Gustave]

I see a frustrated kid, playing in an organization that's been a dumpster fire for years, for a GM that isn't invested in him... Struggling through an injury-ravaged season that's probably the worst year of hockey in his life.

If one thinks his emotional immaturity is a permanent character flaw, then sure, it would be crazy to target him.

If someone knows the person well, and sees an intense competitor with elite skills burried under the frustration and fear, then it's a no-brainer target.

I'll be surprised if Zegras isn't traded this summer.

I'd be shocked if the Habs didn't make a competitive offer.

I'll be happy if he's in our top 9 heading into next season.

Feels like a buy on the cheap situation, like Dach…

Not for our first of course, but there’s a deal in there somewhere for Hugo.

 

[MarkovsKnee]

Thompson had a 4 goal night & Buffalo beats NJ 5-2. Great news! Sabres 7 pts up now. That's done.

We're now 10 points up on 4th place Columbus, but can still hit 5th place.

Calgary is worrisome, but they have some easier games coming up.

 

[DramaticGloveSave]

Hot take: Suzuki and Slaf elevating their games and getting us Wins is more important than a couple slots in the mid lottery.

 

[River Meadow]

Hot take: Suzuki and Slaf elevating their games and getting us Wins is more important than a couple slots in the mid lottery.

I appreciate the take, but IMO it it too shortsighted and incorrect.

The difference in just 1 spot could potentially be a home run for us.

I am not worried about Slaf or Suzuki at all, as they have PLENTY of time to grow and gain confidence and experience - it doesn't need to be in the last few games of this season that they need to rack up points/wins or else.

In other words, them racking up wins/pts in these last few games won't change much in the grand scheme of things, whereas us picking 5th VS 10th+ could be franchise altering...

 

[RationalExpectations]

I appreciate the take, but IMO it it too shortsighted and incorrect.

The difference in just 1 spot could potentially be a home run for us.

I am not worried about Slaf or Suzuki at all, as they have PLENTY of time to grow and gain confidence and experience - it doesn't need to be in the last few games of this season that they need to rack up points/wins or else.

In other words, them racking up wins/pts in these last few games won't change much in the grand scheme of things, whereas us picking 5th VS 10th+ could be franchise altering...

The draft rankings I see are all over the place I am not sure this year it will be a big difference from one spot to the next. Also they won t pick 10+, most likely they pick 5-7 pre lottery, 8 if CGY really falls apart and MTL goes on a run. Picking 10+ pre lotto would mean a lot to teams suddenly tanking on purpose.

 

[26Mats]

when did i ever say I wanted Lawson? while I agree not every player has to be "tall/big" but there ahs to be a limit to how many small players we ink in to our top 9.
View attachment 843359

here are our sub 6' players.

there should be 3 max per team - Newhook is on the fence (he has good weight ratio) and suzuki is is perfectly fine at 212lb.. so I will exclude them.

Also, expect Hutson will be joining in soon....

why would we want Keller - when we already have dead weight (pun intended) with:
Gally, RHP, Harris (stephens and Gignac whatever).

I wouldn't make decisions based on Gally, RHP, and Harris. They aren't part of the future or core core players. RHP and Harris can easily be cut loose. Gally is more complicated, but at the end of the day he can be bought out at the end of next season or the season after. He may even be able to be moved 50% retained if we use a pick to get another team to retain 50% of the remaining 50% the summer heading into his final year.

 

[G0bias]

Difference between picking 5th and 9th could be the forward they were targeting vs settling on one the remaining defenseman...

I don't need points to Slaf and Suzuki to know they've continued their strong play.

 

[Miller Time]

I appreciate the take, but IMO it it too shortsighted and incorrect.

I'd argue it's more short sighted to prioritize a minor draft spot variance over positive development of established core roster players.

The difference in just 1 spot could potentially be a home run for us.

As with every draft that's ever taken place, outside of the rare occurrence of there being more than 1 generational/"can't miss" prospect in a given draft, the only certainty is that there will be some players picked in the top 10 that end up with a worse career than some players picked later.

If we remove hindsight goggles, at the time of the draft, doing well with the pick you have is more important than moving up a spot or two

I am not worried about Slaf or Suzuki at all, as they have PLENTY of time to grow and gain confidence and experience - it doesn't need to be in the last few games of this season that they need to rack up points/wins or else.

That's not how player development works.

It's not an on/off switch, it's far more fluid than that. Building consistency in the process is the gold standard. That they are demonstrating full engagement and commitment despite the season being a write-off is a great sign. Last thing we'd want to see right now is for any of them (core U25 players) to appear disinterested or shut down.

In other words, them racking up wins/pts in these last few games won't change much in the grand scheme of things, whereas us picking 5th VS 10th+ could be franchise altering...

It's not about the points. It's about the attitude and engagement.

The mindset we're seeing from these young guys is what will alter this franchise for the better... Far FAR more than moving from 7th or 8th to 4th or 5th in this draft.

Much better for the 8th OA player selected to walk into a room where the young leaders hold a very high standard even when the results are mediocre, than to walk into a room where guys mail it in because the playoffs are out of reach...

A culture of excellence gets built one day at a time. Any day spent mailing it in or taking the foot off the pedal, isn't just lost progress, it sets you back a step.

Wanting the highest pick possible is a given.

Wanting our young core to ease up is silly and counter productive to the end goal.

 

[River Meadow]

I'd argue it's more short sighted to prioritize a minor draft spot variance over positive development of established core roster players.

So according to you it's more shortsighted to want a 5th OA draft position than a 10th+ OA, and instead of that, we should value 10~ regular season games where we're not going to make the playoffs, so our very young players who have 15+ years left in the NHL, gain more confidence/development/experience?

That 'minor draft spot variance' is not so minor if you're able to pick a star, which historically would have a higher likelihood happening at 5 than 10, 11, 12+.

I'll take the chance at us adding another star player over the dozen or so games of confidence Suzuki/Slaf will get in a losing season at their young ages. Plenty of time for that next year and the years ahead.

 

[RationalExpectations]

So according to you it's more shortsighted to want a 5th OA draft position than a 10th+ OA, and instead of that, we should value 10~ regular season games where we're not going to make the playoffs, so our very young players who have 15+ years left in the NHL, gain more confidence/development/experience?

That 'minor draft spot variance' is not so minor if you're able to pick a star, which historically would have a higher likelihood happening at 5 than 10, 11, 12+.

I'll take the chance at us adding another star player over the dozen or so games of confidence Suzuki/Slaf will get in a losing season at their young ages. Plenty of time for that next year and the years ahead.

Let s reason in terms of pre loto. How do you see the Habs finishing 12th from bottom ?

Worst case from a draft perspective in my opinion they drop to 8th OA, let s say 10OA to go in your direction. Dmen should be all the rage as usual.

So assuming the worst, for illustration purposes :

Celibrini goes 1OA to CHI
SJS Demidov
ANA goes with a RD most likely (Levshunov)
CBJ Lindstrom
ARI goes RD (Parekh)
OTT goes RD (Yakemchuk)
CGY goes Iginla
SEA goes Dickinson (won t fall out of top 10)
PIT goes Catton
MTL still gets Helenius or Eiserman, and that s if Demidov Lindstrom Iginla Catton are indeed selected before Buium and other Ds like Silayev, ie.e Dmen, which is one of the hot commodity right now.

 

[Miller Time]

So according to you it's more shortsighted to want a 5th OA draft position than a 10th+ OA, and instead of that, we should value 10~ regular season games where we're not going to make the playoffs, so our very young players who have 15+ years left in the NHL, gain more confidence/development/experience?

Nope. It's more shortsighted to want current core players to perform poorly in order to improve draft spots.

Lowering standards is counter productive to the objective of achieving performance levels that require... High standards.

Pretty straightforward & easy to understand I would think.

That 'minor draft spot variance' is not so minor if you're able to pick a star, which historically would have a higher likelihood happening at 5 than 10, 11, 12+.

"If you're able to pick a star"

A star like NHL leading scorer Kucherov?

5 of the top 10 scorers in the NHL today were not picked in the top 5 (top 7 to be accurate)... 4 of those 5 weren't even top 10.

Picking anywhere in the draft provides no guarantee of "picking a star".
And.
A higher pick is better than a lower pick.

Those two realities aren't mutually exclusive.

I'll take the chance at us adding another star player over the dozen or so games of confidence Suzuki/Slaf will get in a losing season at their young ages. Plenty of time for that next year and the years ahead.

You assume no star players will be picked after the 5th pick. That's a terribly flawed assumption when 45% of the top 20 scorers in the league today were picked outside the top 10.

This isn't a video game. Players don't just stop/start their performance mindset. Excellence is an every moment mindset, failing to appreciate that is exactly why so many talented individuals & organizations fall far short of their potential.

I'll "take the chance" that the competitive drive on display by our core U25 NHLers is worth far more than the few spots slide their competitive success creates.

In 5 years we can revisit and you can mea culpa on the hindsight reality that a player picked somewhere after 10 oa ends up a bigger star than 1 or more of the guys picked in the top 10. Deal

 

[Miller Time]

@River Meadow

2015
3OA Dylan Strome

10OA Rantanen
16OA Barzal
17OOA Connor

2016
4OA Jesse Puljarvi

7OA Keller
14OA Macavoy
26OA T. Thompson


2017
6OA Cody Glass

13OA Nick Suzuki
20OA R. Thomas
39OA J.Robertson

2018
3OA Kotkaniemi

4OA B. Tkachuk
7OA Q.Hughes
12OA Dobson


2019
5OA Alex Turcotte

6OA M.Seider
12OA M.Boldy
15OA Goal Caufield

Getting the pick right and getting the development right are far more important variables than draft spot.

 

[DAChampion]

@River Meadow

2015
3OA Dylan Strome

10OA Rantanen
16OA Barzal
17OOA Connor

2016
4OA Jesse Puljarvi

7OA Keller
14OA Macavoy
26OA T. Thompson


2017
6OA Cody Glass

13OA Nick Suzuki
20OA R. Thomas
39OA J.Robertson

2018
3OA Kotkaniemi

4OA B. Tkachuk
7OA Q.Hughes
12OA Dobson


2019
5OA Alex Turcotte

6OA M.Seider
12OA M.Boldy
15OA Goal Caufield

Getting the pick right and getting the development right are far more important variables than draft spot.

Major cherry picking.

 

[Steve Shutt]

The upcoming Ott vs WPG game impacts both our first round picks - let's hope OTT continue their hot streak

Let's hope CGY start getting some wins, their 5 game losing streak have them only 4 pts ahead of CLB and 5th overall

 

[vokiel]

Let s reason in terms of pre loto. How do you see the Habs finishing 12th from bottom ?

Worst case from a draft perspective in my opinion they drop to 8th OA, let s say 10OA to go in your direction. Dmen should be all the rage as usual.

So assuming the worst, for illustration purposes :

Celibrini goes 1OA to CHI
SJS Demidov
ANA goes with a RD most likely (Levshunov)
CBJ Lindstrom
ARI goes RD (Parekh)
OTT goes RD (Yakemchuk)
CGY goes Iginla
SEA goes Dickinson (won t fall out of top 10)
PIT goes Catton
MTL still gets Helenius or Eiserman, and that s if Demidov Lindstrom Iginla Catton are indeed selected before Buium and other Ds like Silayev, ie.e Dmen, which is one of the hot commodity right now.

Not strong on current events?

San Jose is the most likely to get Celibrini.

 

[salbutera]

Not strong on current events?

San Jose is the most likely to get Celibrini.

And it would seem to be written in the stars with his father the Dir of Sports Medicine for Golden State & Celebrini having started w Jr Sharks youth hockey program

 

[Heffyhoof]

Hot take: Suzuki and Slaf elevating their games and getting us Wins is more important than a couple slots in the mid lottery.

Yeah, I'm enough of a Debbie Downer that I consider Dach a permanent band-aid boy in my projections. However, I considered Suzuki our future 2C because I wasn't convinced, but now I know he's got what it takes to be a serious 1C.

At the start of the season I wanted Slaf to score slightly above 0.5 PPG were he to play consistently in the top 6 (Pretty sure I have a comment saying about exactly that). Deployment and injuries to top-6 players should've made my projection out of reach, but he's there right now.

This isn't useless plugs like Belzile or Pinard winning us games, it's our future.

 

[Kiss Under the Guy]

Getting the pick right and getting the development right are far more important variables than draft spot.

I was all onboard with your takes on the importance for the future core to be performing at this time of year. Last game, Philly was fighting for a playoffs spot, it was the highest pressured game in which the Habs played in over a year. The Habs have a fortunate calendar this year in this regard, a lot of teams are prepping for the playoffs. Seeing the players develop through this level of competition is worth a 1 or 2 position drop in the draft imo.

I don't buy too much into the "outside the top 10 narrative", since history proves that higher picks tend to perform better.

Exception made for picks 11 and 14, which statistically are better than picks 8 and 10

Soutce: https://morehockeystats.com/drafts/pickstats

 

[RationalExpectations]

Not strong on current events?

San Jose is the most likely to get Celibrini.

In my assumption, CHI gets the new Kane Toews combo with Bedard Celibrini

 

[Lshap]

So according to you it's more shortsighted to want a 5th OA draft position than a 10th+ OA, and instead of that, we should value 10~ regular season games where we're not going to make the playoffs, so our very young players who have 15+ years left in the NHL, gain more confidence/development/experience?

That 'minor draft spot variance' is not so minor if you're able to pick a star, which historically would have a higher likelihood happening at 5 than 10, 11, 12+.

I'll take the chance at us adding another star player over the dozen or so games of confidence Suzuki/Slaf will get in a losing season at their young ages. Plenty of time for that next year and the years ahead.

As our young core improves they'll win more games. If that improvement is manifesting now, should the Habs actively prevent it? Should they sit Suzuki, Slafkovsky, Guhle, Newhook, etc.? And what if they bring up AHL players who over-perform, like last year with RHP and Pezetta?

How much micromanaging should we do to engineer our draft position?

It's a given everyone wants to draft as early as possible. Hughes positioned the roster in that direction by trading Monahan. Now his job is to get out of the way and let the young core steer the ship before adding another key player this summer. I don't see any benefit to hobbling the team for the sake of moving up one or two draft spots. You can't make your team lose any more than you can make other teams win.

 

[Lshap]

Yeah, I'm enough of a Debbie Downer that I consider Dach a permanent band-aid boy in my projections. However, I considered Suzuki our future 2C because I wasn't convinced, but now I know he's got what it takes to be a serious 1C.

At the start of the season I wanted Slaf to score slightly above 0.5 PPG were he to play consistently in the top 6 (Pretty sure I have a comment saying about exactly that). Deployment and injuries to top-6 players should've made my projection out of reach, but he's there right now.

This isn't useless plugs like Belzile or Pinard winning us games, it's our future.

Man, what a shame it would be if Dach can't become a solid, healthy player. The Dach I saw looked like a legit #1C; a full season from him next year could raise the team to where Detroit is now.

 

[Heffyhoof]

Man, what a shame it would be if Dach can't become a solid, healthy player. The Dach I saw looked like a legit #1C; a full season from him next year could raise the team to where Detroit is now.

I'm a weird optimist. I like to undersell expectations so I'm almost always guaranteed to be happy. I consider him a band-aid boy in part because it'd be an absolute gift if he is our #2C, let alone better than Suzuki.