The New Jersey Devils and Corsi/Fenwick

[SnowblindNYR]

Are they the anti-Leafs? The Leafs before Bernier went down were a decent playoff team despite terrible possession numbers. The Devils aren't that great of a team but have fantastic possession numbers. The Devils are what I believe is called a "low event" team (got that from the Rangers board). 1st in shots against and 30th in shots for. They remind me of the NY Knicks that would proverbially take the air out of the ball in the late 90s early 00s. They'd just milk the shot clock and turn every game into a defensive battle. Is a team like this rather than a team that shoots a lot but gives up a decent amount of shots against (Rangers for example- 3rd in shots for 13th in shots against), in other words a high event team, just as likely to succeed? Or is it a sort of loophole and a team that seems to use possession as a defensive strategy doesn't correlate with winning as much?

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[JESSEWENEEDTOCOOK]

They are a classic exception to the rule at this point.

I think there is a tangible explanation for this, though. They have some big, strong forwards that are great along the boards at maintaining possession and forechecking, but they massively lack finish overall, and often don't even get that many prime scoring chances. Just zone time. Now, zone time is very valuable to winning games, as the correlation between good Corsi/Fenwick and being a good/great team shows, but there are still other factors to consider.

 

[Devilsfan992]

We don't allow a lot of shots nor do we take a lot of shots. This is because our offense comes from 1 zone. The defensemen never join the rush so we don't have many odd man rushes for. We will posses the puck in our zone for a solid minute and may only get one shot off. We also play very tight in our defensive zone and our forwards do a great job forechecking. Many of the goals we do let up are from aggressive pinching from our defensemen in the offensive zone that lead to breakaways. However our defense hardly gets pinned in our defensive zone, even if some of the posters on our board will claim that. When we do it's in the final 4 minutes of the game, which everyone tends to remember.

 

[Master_Of_Districts]

Difficult question to answer.

By the eye-test, they're style of play is pretty conservative at even strength, although that ought to affect things at both ends of the rink (i.e. suppressing shooting percentage while inflating save percentage).

Differential shot quality could be a factor, although if you look at the shot location data, the Devils seem to be taking shots from substantially the same locations as their opponents, if not even a touch better. And that was true for 2012-13 and 2011-12 as well.

If shot quality can't explain things - and I'm not saying that it can't, although there's certainly no evidence for that - then that points to goaltending and finishing ability. Of course, randomness has surely played some role too - even over a 3.5 year sample - although I doubt randomness is a complete or even primary explanation.

 

[Ishdul]

They are a classic exception to the rule at this point.

I think there is a tangible explanation for this, though. They have some big, strong forwards that are great along the boards at maintaining possession and forechecking, but they massively lack finish overall, and often don't even get that many prime scoring chances. Just zone time. Now, zone time is very valuable to winning games, as the correlation between good Corsi/Fenwick and being a good/great team shows, but there are still other factors to consider.

The weird thing is that they have a top 5 powerplay driven by a very high shooting percentage.

 

[njdevil26]

The simple answer is that 5 on 5 play is terrible. All the Devils do is dump and chase and grind along the boards. The guy that was supposed to appear between the circles and snipe home those goals (Ryder) has been a huge disappointment.

When was the last time a team with a top 5 power play (Devils are 5th) and best penalty kill in the league missed the playoffs? That's about to happen.

 

[Hammer Time]

They just don't seem to have any quality finishers. They have lots of possession but I would hazard a guess that their shot quality is relatively low.

Goaltending has been an issue, with Brodeur playing at .901 these days.

This season in particular, that 0-8 shootout record really warps the standings. In a shootout-less world the Devils are in 7th place in the East.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

They just don't seem to have any quality finishers. They have lots of possession but I would hazard a guess that their shot quality is relatively low.

Goaltending has been an issue, with Brodeur playing at .901 these days.

This season in particular, that 0-8 shootout record really warps the standings. In a shootout-less world the Devils are in 7th place in the East.

Yes, this is all true. A big reason why they have such low shot quality is because most of their shots are off the cycle with very few off the rush. This is due both to the lack of team speed and the system they play.

Lack of quality shooters exacerbates the issue.

 

[Master_Of_Districts]

They just don't seem to have any quality finishers. They have lots of possession but I would hazard a guess that their shot quality is relatively low.

Goaltending has been an issue, with Brodeur playing at .901 these days.

This season in particular, that 0-8 shootout record really warps the standings. In a shootout-less world the Devils are in 7th place in the East.

Shot quality (for) and finishing ability are distinct issues.

If you look at shot location data (whether for this season or over the past few seasons), the Devils seem to take shots from essentially the same locations as every other team in the league.

So I'd say that their EV shooting percentage issues relate more to finishing ability than shot quality.

I certainly agree with you about Brodeur and the shootout though, both of which have crippled the Devils playoff chances.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

Shot quality (for) and finishing ability are distinct issues.

If you look at shot location data (whether for this season or over the past few seasons), the Devils seem to take shots from essentially the same locations as every other team in the league.

So I'd say that their EV shooting percentage issues relate more to finishing ability than shot quality.

I certainly agree with you about Brodeur and the shootout though, both of which have crippled the Devils playoff chances.

But it's also been shown that shots off the rush are much more likely to go in than shots that come off extended possession time in the offensive zone, correct?

And just from watching the Devils play, they very rarely get shots off the rush, because they are so slow as a team.

 

[Master_Of_Districts]

But it's also been shown that shots off the rush are much more likely to go in than shots that come off extended possession time in the offensive zone, correct?

And just from watching the Devils play, they very rarely get shots off the rush, because they are so slow as a team.

After controlling for shot location? I'm not aware of any studies on that issue.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

After controlling for shot location? I'm not aware of any studies on that issue.

I thought I had read such, but it's possible it wasn't in a formal study.

That said, I'm 99% sure that if such a study were done, it would fine exactly what I said to be true.

Possibly something in conjunction with how the insane amount of offensive zone starts that the Sedins had a few years ago didn't help them as much as one would think.

 

[hatterson]

I thought I had read such, but it's possible it wasn't in a formal study.

That said, I'm 99% sure that if such a study were done, it would fine exactly what I said to be true.

Possibly something in conjunction with how the insane amount of offensive zone starts that the Sedins had a few years ago didn't help them as much as one would think.

I'd have to see the results before I believed that.

Granted, I don't doubt that rush shots have a higher chance to go in, but I also believe that rush shots are much more likely to be harder shots (where the goalie is forced to move prior to the shot)

 

[Noldo]

Could Jersey's shot counter has big enough effect to show in these studies? I remember that studies on Brodeur's shots against home v. away would indicate that Jersey has at least in the past undercounted shots for both teams (just like Florida has been suspected on some overcounting). Since NJ plays more games in Newark than any other team, lower shot count in their home barn could drag their numbers lower.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

I'd have to see the results before I believed that.

Granted, I don't doubt that rush shots have a higher chance to go in, but I also believe that rush shots are much more likely to be harder shots (where the goalie is forced to move prior to the shot)

Isn't that saying the same thing I did, just with an extra step?

1) Premise: Devils take fewer shots off the rush than most teams
2) Shots off the rush are more likely to force the goalie to move
3) Forcing the goalie to move increases shot quality
4) Therefore, the Devils have lower average shot quality than most teams

If #1 is true, then #4 is as well, correct?

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

Could Jersey's shot counter has big enough effect to show in these studies? I remember that studies on Brodeur's shots against home v. away would indicate that Jersey has at least in the past undercounted shots for both teams (just like Florida has been suspected on some overcounting). Since NJ plays more games in Newark than any other team, lower shot count in their home barn could drag their numbers lower.

It probably has some sort of effect on why NJ is at or near the bottom in both shots for and shots against, though last I saw, it was unclear whether the arena effects followed the team from the Meadowlands to Newark. Either way, the counter shouldn't have an effect on the Fenwick/Corsi ratios, because the undercounting (if it still exists) would apply to both shots for and shots against.

 

[hatterson]

Isn't that saying the same thing I did, just with an extra step?

1) Premise: Devils take fewer shots off the rush than most teams
2) Shots off the rush are more likely to force the goalie to move
3) Forcing the goalie to move increases shot quality
4) Therefore, the Devils have lower average shot quality than most teams

If #1 is true, then #4 is as well, correct?

Yes and no. It's an important distinction to say that rush shots are harder as opposed to saying that they're harder because they're more likely to be harder types of shots.

If they're just more likely to be harder types then all you'd need to quantify is location and type (including forced movement). If they're harder controlling for those things then you need whole new set of show metrics, specifying if they're rush shots or sustained possession shots.

 

[Micklebot]

Yes and no. It's an important distinction to say that rush shots are harder as opposed to saying that they're harder because they're more likely to be harder types of shots.

If they're just more likely to be harder types then all you'd need to quantify is location and type (including forced movement). If they're harder controlling for those things then you need whole new set of show metrics, specifying if they're rush shots or sustained possession shots.

I would imagine Shots of the rush would be far more likely to be odd man situations, so there is that to. A two on one rush is a tougher situation for the goalie even if he doesn't have to move because of a pass.

 

[BM67]

Could Jersey's shot counter has big enough effect to show in these studies? I remember that studies on Brodeur's shots against home v. away would indicate that Jersey has at least in the past undercounted shots for both teams (just like Florida has been suspected on some overcounting). Since NJ plays more games in Newark than any other team, lower shot count in their home barn could drag their numbers lower.

The Devils have played 36 Home games, 12 OT/SO, with 923 SOGF and 896 SOGA, 25.64 SOGF/G and 24.89 SOGA/G. The Devils have 92 GF and 77 GA at home, Devils: 9.97 S%, OPP: 8.59 S%, Both: 9.29 S%.

The Devils have played 37 Road games, 10 OT/SO, with 1003 SOGF and 970 SOGA, 27.11 SOGF/G and 26.22 SOGA/G. The Devils have 85 GF and 104 GA on the road, Devils: 8.47 S%, OPP: 10.72 S%, Both: 9.58 S%.

The SOG difference is clear, certainly bigger than the last couple of seasons, but there have also been 20 more goals scored in the road games.

 

[Baemon Severson*]

I think the Devils and Kings will prove that shot quality does somewhat exist. However, not to the extent Leafs fans claim.