If you do your homework
Its 100% real
The only question was who was in on it, which was only a handful of the top people in charge AND shawn Michaels who found out that day.
From the various interviews and accounts, the final decision to pull off the screwjob was taken the night before. Vince was in Shawn's room with Hunter and Gerald Briscoe. And Shawn has said that Triple H said something like "if he's not going to do business, we need to do business for him." Vince was still unsure, but he looked at Shawn and asked him if he was willing to do it. To which Shawn obviously said he'd be willing to do anything for the company.
Shawn also said that Gerald Briscoe was showing him some amateur wrestling moves in the hotel room so HBK can defend himself if Bret decided to fight for real.
So heading into that Sunday, Vince, Shawn, Hunter, and Briscoe knew ahead of time. And they grabbed Earl Hebner before he went out and told him what they wanted him to do and kind of "threaten" him into doing it.
But 100% it was real, it wasnt the "vince mcmahon" character that didnt exist as a true villain yet (the character actually ended up getting spawned from this), that was McMahon the actual owner there telling the guy to ring the bell
People were starting to wise up and more and more fans started to know that Vince was the owner. But that night and the subsequent months brought it to the forefront. And he capitalized on it with the Austin/McMahon feud.
And he fessed up and walked up to Bret after and told him, go ahead, you get a free one. And Bret hit him so hard he knocked him out.
Theres actual footage of vince walking out of the locker room afterwards and barely able to walk and staggering needing help.
Vince did go to Bret's room after it all. Bret said that Shawn for some reason brought his stuff in the room, too. But the other guys who were in there were Owen, Bulldog, Neidhart, Taker, Rick Rude, and Shawn. Bret went to shower and when McMahon came to the dressing room, Rude and Bulldog went to tell Bret. And Bret said they were giddy because they were excited that something might go down.
Bret said something to the effect like "tell him if he's still there after I finish showering, I'm going to knock him out." Bret has jokingly said that he went to dress first because the last thing he wanted to do was lunge at Vince while he was still wet and naked.
And you see in Wrestling with Shadows, Bret asks Shawn if he was in on it, to which Shawn denied (as he was told to do by Vince). But Bret has said that he didn't want to go at Shawn that night because IF Shawn was right and he wasn't in on it, Bret would feel guilty if he hit him.
Bret didnt want to drop the belt in Canada, and everyone knew he was leaving for WCW so the fear was bret bringing the belt with him, and Vince panicked, and that's what you saw.
The original reason why Bret didn't want to drop the belt to Shawn was weeks before Survivor Series, they learned that Bret was going to face Shawn. And they knew Bret was going to leave for WCW. So at one of the house shows, Bret went up to Shawn and told him that he wanted to let Shawn know that he had no problem dropping the belt to him (just to make it clear since Bret and Shawn had a personal rivalry going).
And Shawn replied that he appreciated that, but he also wanted Bret to know that he wouldn't do the same for Bret. And that is what turned Bret off the whole dropping it to Shawn business.
Don't forget, Bret dropped the title to Shawn at WrestleMania 12. The plan was for Shawn to drop it to Bret at WreslteMania 13. But Shawn "lost his smile," and got out of dropping to to Bret. So in Bret's mind, Shawn didn't want to return the favor at WM13, and here he is admitting that he wouldn't afford Bret the same courtesy. So Bret has even more reason to refuse to lose to Shawn.
Bret had offered Vince to drop it to Austin. He had even told him he'd drop it to the Brooklyn Brawler. But he didn't want to drop it to Shawn as a result of what he said. It had more to do with that than it did about losing in Canada, which he was prepared to do before Shawn said he what he said.
In the end, Bret says he stands by what he did that day, but in the whole Bret/Shawn/Vince drama, Bret has said that he also played a hand in how things went down. He doesn't absolve himself of it. Shawn and Vince also regret that day and have confessed to it.
Sorry for the long post, but I've looked into the Screwjob so much over the years. Bret is my favorite wrestler and I've watched every documentary, watched ever interview, and read every book on this thing.
Another great documentary for people to watch is the Rivalries one, where Bret and Shawn sit together with Jim Ross to recount how they started and how they got to where they got.