Speculation: The Jets and the 2021 Seattle Expansion Draft

[Daximus]

Since their is some talk on this in the Niku thread I figured it would be better to start a thread for this to keep the Niku thread on topic.

So the rules:
- Teams can protect 8 skaters and 1 goalie or 7 forwards, 3 defencemen and 1 goalie.
- Players with full NMC's must be protected.
- 1st and 2nd year ELC players as well as unsigned players are exempt.

All Teams must expose:
- One defenseman who is a) under contract in 2021-22 and b) played in 40 or more NHL games the prior season OR played in 70 or more NHL games in the prior two seasons.
- Two forwards who are a) under contract in 2021-22 season and b) played in 40 or more NHL games the prior season OR played in 70 or more NHL games in the prior two seasons.
- One goaltender who is under contract in 2021-22 or will be a restricted free agent at the expiration of his current contract immediately prior to 2021-22. If the club elects to make a restricted free agent goaltender available in order to meet this requirement, that goaltender must have received his qualifying offer prior to the submission of the club's protected list.
- Players with potential career-ending injuries who have missed more than the previous 60 consecutive games (or who otherwise have been confirmed to have a career-threatening injury) may not be used to satisfy a club's player exposure requirements, unless approval is received from the NHL. Such players also may be deemed exempt from selection by the League.

Rules for Seattle:
- Must select one player from each presently existing club (minus Vegas) for a total of 30 players (not including additional players who may be acquired as the result of violations of the Expansion Draft rules).
- Must select the following number of players at each position: 14 forwards, 9 defensemen and 3 goaltenders.
- Must select a minimum of 20 players who are under contract for the 2021-22 season.
- Must select players with an aggregate Expansion Draft value that is between 60-100% of the prior season's upper limit for the salary cap.
- May not buy out any of the players selected in the Expansion Draft earlier than the summer following its first season.


We must protect:
No one has a full NMC for 2021-22 on the Jets.

Players eligible to be taken by Seattle:

Forwards: Scheifele, Wheeler, Laine, Little, Connor, Ehlers, Roslovic, Appleton, Perreault, Lowry, Tanev, Copp, Petan, Lemieux, Dano, Suess, Harkins, Spacek, McKenzie, Shaw, Kerdiles, Griffith, Lipon.

Defence: Byfuglien, Trouba, Morrissey, Niku, Myers, Kulikov, Chiarot, Morrow, Stanley, Poolman, Green, Nogier, Schilling.

Goalies: Hellebuyck, Brossoit, Comrie, Berdin


We likely go with the 7 forwards and 3 configuration.

Click to read more...

 

[Duke749]

Let me get this straight, if you protect more then 3 defenseman, you can only protect 8 skaters as opposed to 10? Did I read that right?

 

[Adam da bomb]

Since their is some talk on this in the Niku thread I figured it would be better to start a thread for this to keep the Niku thread on topic.

So the rules:
- Teams can protect 8 skaters and 1 goalie or 7 forwards, 3 defencemen and 1 goalie.
- Players with full NMC's must be protected.
- 1st and 2nd year ELC players as well as unsigned players are exempt.

All Teams must expose:
- One defenseman who is a) under contract in 2021-22 and b) played in 40 or more NHL games the prior season OR played in 70 or more NHL games in the prior two seasons.
- Two forwards who are a) under contract in 2021-22 season and b) played in 40 or more NHL games the prior season OR played in 70 or more NHL games in the prior two seasons.
- One goaltender who is under contract in 2021-22 or will be a restricted free agent at the expiration of his current contract immediately prior to 2021-22. If the club elects to make a restricted free agent goaltender available in order to meet this requirement, that goaltender must have received his qualifying offer prior to the submission of the club's protected list.
- Players with potential career-ending injuries who have missed more than the previous 60 consecutive games (or who otherwise have been confirmed to have a career-threatening injury) may not be used to satisfy a club's player exposure requirements, unless approval is received from the NHL. Such players also may be deemed exempt from selection by the League.

Rules for Seattle:
- Must select one player from each presently existing club (minus Vegas) for a total of 30 players (not including additional players who may be acquired as the result of violations of the Expansion Draft rules).
- Must select the following number of players at each position: 14 forwards, 9 defensemen and 3 goaltenders.
- Must select a minimum of 20 players who are under contract for the 2021-22 season.
- Must select players with an aggregate Expansion Draft value that is between 60-100% of the prior season's upper limit for the salary cap.
- May not buy out any of the players selected in the Expansion Draft earlier than the summer following its first season.


We must protect:
No one has a full NMC for 2021-22 on the Jets.

Players eligible to be taken by Seattle:

Forwards: Scheifele, Wheeler, Laine, Little, Connor, Ehlers, Roslovic, Appleton, Perreault, Lowry, Tanev, Copp, Petan, Lemieux, Dano, Suess, Harkins, Spacek, McKenzie, Shaw, Kerdiles, Griffith, Lipon.

Defence: Byfuglien, Trouba, Morrissey, Niku, Myers, Kulikov, Chiarot, Morrow, Stanley, Poolman, Green, Nogier, Schilling.

Goalies: Hellebuyck, Brossoit, Comrie, Berdin


We likely go with the 7 forwards and 3 configuration.

Do you leave Wheeler unprotected and dare them to take his 8mil at his age. That way you can protect another youngster?

 

[Daximus]

Let me get this straight, if you protect more then 3 defenseman, you can only protect 8 skaters as opposed to 10? Did I read that right?

Yeah. You can protect 7 forwards and 3 D for 10 skaters or just simply 8 skaters of any configuration of forwards and D.

 

[Daximus]

Do you leave Wheeler unprotected and dare them to take his 8mil at his age. That way you can protect another youngster?

We definitely could. Wheeler will be 35 by then with 3 years remaining on his contract.

 

[Daximus]

Scheifele, Laine, Connor, Ehlers, Roslovic, Lowry our probably for sure protected. So that's 6 skaters.

Mojo and Trouba (if he's here still) are for sure protected. For 2 dmen.

Hellebuyck is likely for sure protected as well.

Other than that its up in the air.
Buff will be a UFA by the draft so who knows what could happen there.
Wheeler and Little won't need to be protected and will be 35 and 34 years old by the time the 2021-22 season starts respectively.

 

[cheswick]

Per the above rules. Pierre LeBrun said players with full NMC need to be protected, and players with only NTC don't. Players with something in between (see Bryan Little) will be decided on a case by case basis.

 

[Saintb]

I think the Jets will protect Stanley. They are all in on him I believe.

 

[Daximus]

Per the above rules. Pierre LeBrun said players with full NMC need to be protected, and players with only NTC don't. Players with something in between (see Bryan Little) will be decided on a case by case basis.

If that's the case Wheeler and Little are the only players who will be under contract for sure at that time and both have modified NMC's.

 

[WpgSteve]

Do you leave Wheeler unprotected and dare them to take his 8mil at his age. That way you can protect another youngster?

Of course! I can't believe we signed him to that contract to begin with.

 

[Daximus]

I think the Jets will protect Stanley. They are all in on him I believe.

Depends on whose on the roster and whose not. If Trouba re ups then you protect Morrissey and Trouba no questions asked. Then it comes down to Buff. If you don't protect him then you have Niku or Stanley to choose from. Green could potentially also put himself into the conversation depending on how he develops by then.

 

[cheswick]

If that's the case Wheeler and Little are the only players who will be under contract for sure at that time and both have modified NMC's.

Capfriendly.com puts Wheeler with a modified NTC, not a NMC.

 

[Daximus]

Capfriendly.com puts Wheeler with a modified NTC, not a NMC.

Oh shit it is too. So just Little then.

 

[tgo0]

A long ways off and the last spot would be dependant on how things go over the next 2 years, but my best current guess would be

F: Scheifele, Laine, Connor, Ehlers, Lowry... then two of Wheeler/Roslo/Little/Perrault

D: Morrissey, Trouba (if around, or potentially who we trade him for)... Buff/Niku/Poolman

G: Helle.

 

[tgo0]

Oh **** it is too. So just Little then.

Little only has a NMC for the first 2 years (18/19 & 19/20), then also becomes a M-NTC. Expansion year he doesn't have a NMC.

 

[Daximus]

Little only has a NMC for the first 2 years (18/19 & 19/20), then also becomes a M-NTC. Expansion year he doesn't have a NMC.

Right again so my OP was correct. We don't aren't forced to protect anyone.

 

[cheswick]

A long ways off and the last spot would be dependant on how things go over the next 2 years, but my best current guess would be

F: Scheifele, Laine, Connor, Ehlers, Lowry... then two of Wheeler/Roslo/Little/Perrault

D: Morrissey, Trouba (if around, or potentially who we trade him for)... Buff/Niku/Poolman

G: Helle.

One would think if Buff wants to re-sign he'd be willing to wait until after the draft to do so. Ditto Lowry.

 

[Daximus]

A long ways off and the last spot would be dependant on how things go over the next 2 years, but my best current guess would be

F: Scheifele, Laine, Connor, Ehlers, Lowry... then two of Wheeler/Roslo/Little/Perrault

D: Morrissey, Trouba (if around, or potentially who we trade him for)... Buff/Niku/Poolman

G: Helle.

I think Appleton could potentially squeeze himself into the Forward group.
I don't think Poolman will be worth protecting then. Guy will be a 28 year old 7/8 dman at best likely by then. Green and Stanley will likely be on Seattle's radar if the develop well.

 

[tgo0]

One would think if Buff wants to re-sign he'd be willing to wait until after the draft to do so.

I would think so too and that would something that would have to be discussed with him and his management in the summer before. Give him a handshake deal of we'll do this next year regardless kinda thing, although not sure if that's allowed?

I think Appleton could potentially squeeze himself into the Forward group.
I don't think Poolman will be worth protecting then. Guy will be a 28 year old 7/8 dman at best likely by then. Green and Stanley will likely be on Seattle's radar if the develop well.

I 100% agree about Appleton, I've been incredibly impressed with him in his brief time up, just thought it was a little premature to include him.

You're probably right about Poolman. Even though I'm not high on Stanley there's a chance if he progresses well. If we lose Trouba without a viable immediate return we get really thin on that end.

 

[Daximus]

One would think if Buff wants to re-sign he'd be willing to wait until after the draft to do so.

Might be, though I think Seattle can still pick him if they want, and even discuss a contract with him prior to that pick. There is some prime fishing in Washington. Blows Winnipeg out of the water.

 

[Mathil8]

Right again so my OP was correct. We don't aren't forced to protect anyone.

Capfriendly has Blake Wheeler with a NMC in the 2021-22 season... Modified NTC, NMC doesnt start til 2022-23.

Blake Wheeler - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

 

[Flair Hay]

Seattle will likely have a choice between older Perreault, maybe Copp, maybe Tanev, maybe Roslovic.

Even if we are in a pinch and close to losing Niku or Roslovic, we could always get Little to waive and expose his contract that Seattle will never take.

 

[Yukon Joe]

I think it's dangerous to assume Seattle won't take a player just because of age, if the player is still otherwise producing. Remember Vegas has to hit the cap floor as well, so they need to take some salary. And there'll be some pressure on them to do well after what Vegas did last year.

 

[cheswick]

Might be, though I think Seattle can still pick him if they want, and even discuss a contract with him prior to that pick. There is some prime fishing in Washington. Blows Winnipeg out of the water.

Yeah they could, much like Vegas took Thorburn. My thinking is that if Byfuglien wants to be in Winnipeg and wants Winnipeg to succeed he would be willing to agree to terms and wait to sign til after the draft/free agency period to allow Winnipeg to protect an additional player.

 

[Adam da bomb]

I think it's dangerous to assume Seattle won't take a player just because of age, if the player is still otherwise producing. Remember Vegas has to hit the cap floor as well, so they need to take some salary. And there'll be some pressure on them to do well after what Vegas did last year.

All the better. After all, Buff is earning 7.5 Wheeler is earning 8mil. If they take a step back in 2 years it just saves us money if they are picked.