News Article: The good, the bad and the ugly of Cheveldayoff’s five-year tenure

[Thai jet*]

My argument has never been that you should be winning the cup in 5 years. I used 5 years from bottoming out to start making progress. Meaning we have another 5 years at least before Stanley Cup contender. Making this a 15-20 year rebuild. This is not an expansion team we inherited here. There were many key pieces already in place. You simply just cannot accept a PLAN that calls for a rebuild this long. And if Chipman did he is not the hockey guy we all hope he is.

Everyone here likes to quite draft and develop. If Chevy wanted to do a true draft and develop why have we completely failed to add picks over this rebuild. We averaged right around 7 picks per draft, and have made what one extra selection in the first two rounds in 6 years? That's simply not adding enough depth to the system if you want to say the Jets want to draft and develop. You need to add more than that.

Let's look at LA. Guerzy quoted all the stuff about the drafts before the rebuild. Well we inherited a team that had drafted in the top 10 for the previous 5 years. I've NEVER ignored the fact that the Kings had pieces in place before the bottom out in 2008. But the fact of the matter is that the Jets had plenty of pieces themselves people just kinda like to ignore. Pieces that Jets are wasting by letting them age out.

Some context. Dean Lombardi arrived in 2006. The Kings had been a middling team for years trying to do exactly what Chevy has tried to do. Draft and Develop AND be a good team at same time. Lombardi walked in to the office told them a rebuild was needed. He managed to get the then stingy Kings management to buy into his vision. So he instantly pawned off a few of the quality veterans (Demitra, Conroy) and added pieces for the future. He amassed picks for years. He had signed a whole bunch of useless veterans to fill spots (Nagy, MacAuley, Cloutier, Modry, etc). So he knew he had a couple pieces (Kopitar, Brown, Cammalleri) that were good young talent be he supplemented it with lots of picks and an actual draft and develop. After 2/3 years off adding so much talent and putting a good development team he started to add quality veterans the rebuild started to take shape in 2010 as trend up.

Look at the Jets when they arrived from Atlanta. Again they had those few pieces much like the Kings when Dean Lombardi arrived. You can argue they didn't have a Kopitar, which is true, but in fact they had more in the system, IMO. Ladd, Wheeler, Byfuglien, Burmistrov, Bogosian, Kane, Pavelec were all good up and coming young talents at the time. But instead of making his impact on the team, adding picks and truly rebuilding, Chevy failed to add those picks, failed to shape team. Everyone talks about how good the drafting was, could you imagine how much they could have done with more picks and more chances. They could have done an actual draft and develop. Instead they've chosen to operate for 5 years as the Kings from 2002-2006. They've tried to be competitive while draft and develop. And while that certainly gave Kings a few pieces sure, it also means 5+ more years before competitive.

This is the argument me and Guerzy have had in the past and it all boils down to this. I feel Chevy NEEDED to make his impact and could have done a job similiar to Lombardi when he took over in 2006 back in 2011 when he took over. Which means this team would trending up right now like the Kings started to in 2010. Meanwhile Guerzy wanted a GM like Dave Taylor who tries to tread water for 5 years before starting the rebuild. I feel the Jets had MORE pieces in 2011 than the Kings had in 2006.

Chipman a "hockey guy we hope he is". Who is we? Owning a minor league team makes someone ready to build a NHL team to compete against teams run by people with decades of NHL experience? He is an arrogant control freak with zero understand of his limitations. This team is a disaster 7 years after bottoming out and will remain that way as long as Chipman & crew think they are NHL caliper. Dir of Hackey Ops a equipment guy? Lucky for him the local media are lapdogs and most fans just happy to have a team.

 

[Puckatron 3000]

Nope. It may suit your purposes to portray the team as an expansion team but they most certainly were not.

Neither were the Hawks or Kings, so I don't think this is relevant.

This was a team that was on the playoff line the year before.

In the Southeast division. Which was awful. That team would have (and did) get murdered in the central.

They had plenty of pieces. You make smart calculated moves adding picks and prospects while keeping the guys you identify as core guys.

Right.
But we had no prospects to start with.
We would have had to decimate our existing talent to get the kind of picks you're advocating for.

Chevy has just said EVERYONE is core and never tried that (except Oduya apparently). He tried to stay competitive and rebuild. We are seeing the folly of that course now as our core ages out and at BEST we can replace those guys while looking a rebuild time of 10+ years at the very minimum (if you include Atlanta time as you have to).

I do agree this is the danger of our current approach. I'm not sure I agree a different path, trading of talent for futures, would have necessarily worked out better.

On paper, or a hockey manager sim, it makes sense. In reality it often seems to get messier.

 

[raideralex99]

True North or Chevy ...who is to blame for being cheap?
Lowest payroll in the league and you can't sign decent depth players or your stars seriously that's not how to run a team unless of course you are only in it for the money.

 

[JetsFan815]

True North or Chevy ...who is to blame for being cheap?
Lowest payroll in the league and you can't sign decent depth players or your stars seriously that's not how to run a team unless of course you are only in it for the money.

Even if you are in it only for the money that's not the right way to run a team. You are only reducing the demand of your product and keep that up long enough you'd be relying on people's goodwill to keep making money. To really make money, you need to incentivize people to keep coming back to your product. Cheaping out on the team to save money is the definition of short term thinking

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

You and many others accuse Chevy of not picking a direction, Mort. As if the only decision towards running a team is binary - complete 100% tank, or sell everything for a playoff run, which is the only way the Atlanta core could have competed.

I can imagine if we all lived our lives this way. What should I have for dinner, kale tofu quinoa salad with a cup of wheat grass, or a lard infused chocolate toffee butter cake with a high fructose corn syrup glaze with a bottle of everclear? Should I work 72 hours of overtime this weekend, or drive my car off a cliff and parachute out of the flaming wreckage at the last moment? Because anything else just ain't extreme, man.

Of course I'm funnin' with you. However, with the Jets, trying to keep the best of the older core (cutting loose guys like Kane and perhaps soon Ladd, while keeping those who rise above like Wheeler and hopefully Buff), supplemented with a mix of new prospects is also a direction. You may disagree with that direction. But it is a direction.

If we only consider the extreme directions (and why are we doing that again?), one of those two extreme directions everybody is clamoring for would have been a disaster. Which was to go all-in with the Atlanta core. Is anyone really advocating for that? I doubt it.

So the other choice, the only other option left if we're limiting ourselves to the extremes, would have been an immediate blow up. That's a pretty intimidating challenge for a new ownership group in a new city. Has this ever happened before? Maybe someone more familiar with the history of the league can chime in.

It strikes me there's so much that can go wrong, especially for an inexperienced group. A toxic locker room culture. A team UFAs avoid like the plague. Abandonment by the fans. Anger and blame in the local sports news media. People in management losing jobs. Building an organization under the pall of endless losses and a complete lack of team enthusiasm. Always questioning "what if" as the players you let go move on to win on other teams.

Of course, all these things can be managed. Yes, some stellar teams like Chicago have done it. But I think there's some survivorship bias going on here. it's a tough go for a new ownership group. It would have been a ballsy move, that's for sure. I don't think it would have been the silver bullet for success as so many here claim. I think it would have been a gamble.

Regarding your comment on Chevy now having the pieces to make aggressive moves - I agree. Will Chevy make those moves? Unknown. I hope so.

For what the team needed in the past, I think Chevy has done fine. For what the team needs now and in the future, I don't know if Chevy is up to the task. It's kind of like there are good peace time leaders and good war time leaders. We've never seen Chevy operate with a contending team, ready for battle. I think it possible the Jets become this in the near future. If Chevy is the right man for the job.

Originally Posted by Mortimer Snerd View Post
Not so. The roster had quite a lot. It also had a lot of holes. The narrative was that Chevy would evaluate what he had during the first year and then pick a direction. He did that and decided to mostly keep the Atlanta group together and build on it. The option was to blow it up at that time.

The next sentence after your bold. I have never bought into the 'pick a direction Chevy' theme. I think he picked the wrong direction. He thought he could build via the draft around the core he inherited. Maybe he thought he could be more successful supplementing that through FA. We keep hearing that he was in the mix for this or that high profile FA. Actually I'm just as glad he missed out.

Given the limited resources he had the math doesn't work but that is with the benefit of some hindsight. I think he was counting on Kane, Bogo, Pav and to a lesser extent Burmi to provide a lot more than they did. They were his rising young studs. Had they turned out as expected then the core of Ladd, Little, Wheeler, Buff, Toby lead by those young studs and supplemented by Scheif, Trouba and a few later picks would have become a solid PO team by now. That didn't happen and he is being a little slow to change to plan B.

I think that the biggest mistake might have been underestimating the value of the honeymoon period. If the Jets had stated publicly that they didn't believe they had inherited enough to build upon and started moving assets for futures I think the fans would have accepted a couple of very poor years. Better then than now.

 

[Puckatron 3000]

I have never bought into the 'pick a direction Chevy' theme.

Apologies. I misunderstood your post.

I think he picked the wrong direction. He thought he could build via the draft around the core he inherited. Maybe he thought he could be more successful supplementing that through FA. We keep hearing that he was in the mix for this or that high profile FA. Actually I'm just as glad he missed out.

I still think it's possible, but it should just be less pieces of the original core. I can see this team contending while guys like Wheeler and maybe Buff are still around.

Given the limited resources he had the math doesn't work but that is with the benefit of some hindsight. I think he was counting on Kane, Bogo, Pav and to a lesser extent Burmi to provide a lot more than they did. They were his rising young studs. Had they turned out as expected then the core of Ladd, Little, Wheeler, Buff, Toby lead by those young studs and supplemented by Scheif, Trouba and a few later picks would have become a solid PO team by now. That didn't happen and he is being a little slow to change to plan B.

Great point on the guys who didn't quite reach their potential.

Too often people criticize decisions based on information that is now known, but was impossible to know at the time. Chevy couldn't have known so many of Altanta's high picks would be semi-duds.

I think that the biggest mistake might have been underestimating the value of the honeymoon period. If the Jets had stated publicly that they didn't believe they had inherited enough to build upon and started moving assets for futures I think the fans would have accepted a couple of very poor years. Better then than now.

According to Guerzy's very good posts, we're talking waaay more than a couple very poor years. And that's looking at the teams that were both established organizations, and "did it right" (e.g. not Edmonton).

 

[Guerzy]

Given the limited resources he had the math doesn't work but that is with the benefit of some hindsight. I think he was counting on Kane, Bogo, Pav and to a lesser extent Burmi to provide a lot more than they did. They were his rising young studs. Had they turned out as expected then the core of Ladd, Little, Wheeler, Buff, Toby lead by those young studs and supplemented by Scheif, Trouba and a few later picks would have become a solid PO team by now. That didn't happen and he is being a little slow to change to plan B.

This is a fantastic post and view, Mort. Well said and well explained.

 

[jiho]

Given the limited resources he had the math doesn't work but that is with the benefit of some hindsight. I think he was counting on Kane, Bogo, Pav and to a lesser extent Burmi to provide a lot more than they did. They were his rising young studs. Had they turned out as expected then the core of Ladd, Little, Wheeler, Buff, Toby lead by those young studs and supplemented by Scheif, Trouba and a few later picks would have become a solid PO team by now. That didn't happen and he is being a little slow to change to plan B.

If Chevy's evaluation of those four after watching them the first season was to expect them to be elite or top line players, his evaluating skils are pretty poor.

 

[Aavco Cup]

Given the limited resources he had the math doesn't work but that is with the benefit of some hindsight. I think he was counting on Kane, Bogo, Pav and to a lesser extent Burmi to provide a lot more than they did. They were his rising young studs. Had they turned out as expected then the core of Ladd, Little, Wheeler, Buff, Toby lead by those young studs and supplemented by Scheif, Trouba and a few later picks would have become a solid PO team by now. That didn't happen and he is being a little slow to change to plan B.

If Chevy's evaluation of those four after watching them the first season was to expect them to be elite or top line players, his evaluating skils are pretty poor.

Kane scored 30 goals not playing on the 1st line IIRC. Many people had all those players rated highly in year 1

 

[cbcwpg]

I can see the bright spot of getting a good draft pick and hopefully making the franchise better, but still.... and even though it's a 6 way tie and it may change right away.... did ANYONE envision after 5 years of getting the NHL back in Winnipeg that you would wake up and see the Jets in DEAD ****ING LAST PLACE ???

 

[Jimby]

I sure didn't. If Chevy is still thinking he wants to hold off making a trade for fear of derailing a playoff run he is on drugs.

I can see the bright spot of getting a good draft pick and hopefully making the franchise better, but still.... and even though it's a 6 way tie and it may change right away.... did ANYONE envision after 5 years of getting the NHL back in Winnipeg that you would wake up and see the Jets in DEAD ****ING LAST PLACE ???

 

[Aavco Cup]

I sure didn't. If Chevy is still thinking he wants to hold off making a trade for fear of derailing a playoff run he is on drugs.

Trades at this time of year tend to happen within a few days of the deadline. It has always been that way and always will be.

 

[MardyBum]

Or at the very least a week+ out. I'm going to guess . . . February 18th as the day Ladd gets traded.

 

[roccerfeller]

Kane scored 30 goals not playing on the 1st line IIRC. Many people had all those players rated highly in year 1

Yep.

I certainly expected a lot more from them too. I thought we inherited a solid core and prospects with a lot of upswing. Many Atlanta fans, the ones who did not continue to follow the team, before they stopped following they left some parting words of hope regarding the core and prospects back in the day. A lot of us, myself included hadn't seen or followed hockey religiously in ages so it was good to get the "spark notes" on what jets 2.0 fans inherited

 

[roccerfeller]

I can see the bright spot of getting a good draft pick and hopefully making the franchise better, but still.... and even though it's a 6 way tie and it may change right away.... did ANYONE envision after 5 years of getting the NHL back in Winnipeg that you would wake up and see the Jets in DEAD ****ING LAST PLACE ???

I certainly didn't. Especially not with the strong start we had...the best yet in 2.0 history I think.

But I also think we have had a tough season, something which we need to consider more and acknowledge to an extent. we've had a lot of bad luck on the ice among other things. It's been tough and it's added to the losses.

I think we have outplayed enough opponents to be 10 pts up where we are now. Vs Avs, vs oilers, vs the Sabres, vs a bunch of teams. We aren't winning most of the "easier" games like we were last year and we also are a dropping many close contests on the wrong side of the win column.

I think we are closer to turning the ship around than we are to perpetually sucking - by that I mean on an annual basis, not this season. There needs to be some key cogs changed particularly Stuart. He is standout terrible and his ill timed pinches early in the year regularly cost us goals.

Mix that with a mediocre tender in pav and a regressed Hutch and it killed a lot of our early momentum

Ladd is having an off year - his worst ever and it's impacting us, little hasn't been himself, buff and Toby seems to be the only consistently good d men we have, there's a lot of tiny issues compounding here

I still feel we are not as bad as the standings say we are. We have some critical weaknesses but we are a better team than the standings show. A lot of bad luck has gone our way too, whether you subscribe to luck being a factor or not.

 

[blues10]

WOW! this "process" that Chevy speaks about has us tied for dead last in the entire NHL 3 weeks before the trade deadline in Chevy's 5th season as GM.

Would love to be a fly on the wall and hear Chevy explaining this "process" to Chipman and Thomson. I would hesitate to guess that his planned process is not working out the way he envisioned it. Good thing for Chevy that TNSE are so loyal and such a happy family that he will likely have another 5 years to show how this process works.

 

[Aavco Cup]

What makes you think Chipman is not involved in the "process"?

 

[royalwoodJet]

I just don't buy the criticism of some on here that Chipman is 'in it for the money.' You can question the approach to building a team, but greed is just a ridiculous accusation. He's poured millions into improving the rink every off-season, and not just in ways that bring in more revenue. And the downtown development he's doing, I surely hope it's profitable, but none of the other Winnipeg developers are doing it on the same scale. I would be shocked if True North wasn't making money. But it's ridiculous to say that's all they care about.

 

[blues10]

I just don't buy the criticism of some on here that Chipman is 'in it for the money.' You can question the approach to building a team, but greed is just a ridiculous accusation. He's poured millions into improving the rink every off-season, and not just in ways that bring in more revenue. And the downtown development he's doing, I surely hope it's profitable, but none of the other Winnipeg developers are doing it on the same scale. I would be shocked if True North wasn't making money. But it's ridiculous to say that's all they care about.

Chiipman has to pour millions into the building every year. TNSE has an agreement with the Province of Manitoba allowing them a share of gambling monies from the Shark Club. The money must be spent on building improvements.

 

[sipowicz]

The two worst teams in two different leagues doesn't exactly say the GM is doing a good job, a fair job or doing much of anything at all, Chevy clearly is incompetent, bad hire, worse even keeping him around so long and even more ridiculous not firing him ASAP!

 

[blues10]

What makes you think Chipman is not involved in the "process"?

Good point. This may very well be a shared process.

 

[raideralex99]

I just don't buy the criticism of some on here that Chipman is 'in it for the money.' You can question the approach to building a team, but greed is just a ridiculous accusation. He's poured millions into improving the rink every off-season, and not just in ways that bring in more revenue. And the downtown development he's doing, I surely hope it's profitable, but none of the other Winnipeg developers are doing it on the same scale. I would be shocked if True North wasn't making money. But it's ridiculous to say that's all they care about.

Teams in any sport that have the lowest payroll ... that's all they care about ... showing a profit at the end of the day. You don't become rich by being stupid.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I don't know if a strict focus on the phrase "bottom out" really hits the nail on the head. Inagree with your post. Picking a "bottom out" point misses a large part of the picture, but in this case - and most others - the defining moment does come from the draft. It usually come 6 years or less from a cup win. Franchise players are drafted, and by franchise players I specifically mean franchise centers and D men.

"Bottoming out" or winning the draft lottery can be a big help in this regard. Add Matthews to the Jets and I could see them contending within the next 5 years. Without him or another stud #1C, it'll be tough.

Some really good, well thought out comments recently in this thread. Discussing recently successful teams, mostly Chicago in terms of time to a cup has to look at a series of events that stretch back quite a way. If we look at Atlanta's last stretch at near bottom, when they drafted Kane and Bogo as the beginning of a bottom period and this year (and maybe next) as the end of the bottom out we might win the cup in 5-6 years. I could live with that. Each year a little better than the last would keep me happy. Starting to really contend in 4 years?

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

The Stealth Rebuild/Retool Theory

Did the Jets quietly and stealthily actually begin the rebuild a year ago with the Kane trade? Some here say that to do rebuild properly assets need to be moved for draft picks and prospects to increase your odds at the draft table. At the end of last season I recall Maurice hinting the Jets could be much younger. It seems the plan was always to only sign one of Buff Ladd with the idea of adding to the draft picks/prospects with the other one

If this happens and a contender emerges, would history show the rebuild started with the Kane trade?

Interesting thought AC. Take it back to when Maurice was hired. Chevy was apparently considering blowing it up but they responded so well to Maurice that he backed off. If Chevy and PMo jointly evaluated last year's sweep as a true indication of what they had then maybe it was back on. Doesn't quite fit your timing but if everything from the Kane trade on was part of that decision making process it does. If the rebuild was already committed to Chevy would not have acquired Tlusty (I don't include Stemp because he was basically free). At the end of season evaluation a decision and commitment was made. Go with youth. Sign one of Ladd/Buff. Soft tank. Could be.

 

[robertocarlos]

Jets beat the Caps, that is a positive. They beat some other good teams too.