Player Discussion The Future of Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 2: Has His Recent Concussion Complicated Things More?

[Bryanbryoil]

I've added a poll to this thread.

Click to read more...

 

[belair]

RNH plays 20:57 a night which is alright but one has to take into account the Oilers give him a lot of gravy PP time because they only run 1 PP unit. He gets on most nights an extra 30-60 seconds from that.

Horcoff played similar minutes, I don't think anyone would say he was an amazingly gifted athlete.

When people say that they mean explosive on the ice in some way, RNH doesn't have an athletic attribute he can lean on as he ages (ie: Iginla's strength, Crosby's freakish lower body strength, Ovy's unbelievable shot, etc. etc.). MacKinnon, McDavid (explosive speed) and Draisaitl (top end strength and balance) are top end hockey athletes.

His ability to weave through defenders is his 'attribute'. He's an exceptionally slippery puck carrier and has a high-end ability to distribute pucks effectively on the cycle. The difference between that and the 'athletic abilities' you've named off are that he's not likely to suddenly lose that ability due to physical regression. His ability to log insane minutes may at some point, but like Horcoff his hockey sense likely allows him to continue to have a productive career well into his 30s.

It's funny that you bring up Horcoff because he's a guy who got a really bad shake as an Oiler. He was an outstanding player. We just happened to have him in a time where he had to be the primary scoring center and as a result he ended up with a contract that was equal to an $8m AAV today. He was a swiss-army knife forward and it was a tragedy what happened to his game post all-star injury.

Oiler fans don't know what a deep Edmonton Oilers team looks like in the salary cap era. A player like Horcoff is one that any competitive team takes in an instant. Especially when you can pay him for playing the role that he's best cast in.

The great thing about RNH is that he's better than Horcoff ever was. In terms of both natural ability and endurance. And because of this recent downturn in even strength production, there's a good chance you can lock him up at a bargain.

But hey, maybe the grass is greener elsewhere. Don't look at our history on the UFA market though.

 

[Mr Positive]

RNH's fate will be determined in the playoffs

 

[Gregsky99]

He deserves to be re-signed, but does not deserve a raise. I think if you plan on him as a winger playing both special teams, 6mil is about right. But let’s say you put him with someone like Holloway, then RNH can be the 2nd man in on the forecheck and can play to his play making ability. Just need a shooter there

 

[harpoon]

Thanks for putting up the new thread Bryan. Sorry that I was too slow. I was working on it, but 'work' kept getting in my way.

It's funny that you bring up Horcoff because he's a guy who got a really bad shake as an Oiler. He was an outstanding player.

Part of the reason Horcoff wasn't popular with some fans in Edmonton can be ascribed to MacTavish's gross over-estimation of the player and the way he treated him like a minor league dad coaching his son's team. I've never seen a guy spoon-fed minutes and opportunities as he was coming up to the extent MacT coddled Horcoff along. Horcoff was never an 'outstanding' player imo. Not even close.

His ability to weave through defenders is his 'attribute'. He's an exceptionally slippery puck carrier and has a high-end ability to distribute pucks effectively on the cycle.

When does the bold ever happen? I would argue that his inability to do exactly that is one of his great limitations as a center. Nor is he a great on the cycle. He's OK cycling on the PP, but at evens the cycle usually dies with RNH.

The great thing about RNH is that he's better than Horcoff ever was. In terms of both natural ability and endurance.

I agree with this for sure. If the team can avoid overpaying RNH to the extent they did with Horcoff, I'd be fine with having him back for another three or four seasons.

 

[Soundwave]

His ability to weave through defenders is his 'attribute'. He's an exceptionally slippery puck carrier and has a high-end ability to distribute pucks effectively on the cycle. The difference between that and the 'athletic abilities' you've named off are that he's not likely to suddenly lose that ability due to physical regression. His ability to log insane minutes may at some point, but like Horcoff his hockey sense likely allows him to continue to have a productive career well into his 30s.

It's funny that you bring up Horcoff because he's a guy who got a really bad shake as an Oiler. He was an outstanding player. We just happened to have him in a time where he had to be the primary scoring center and as a result he ended up with a contract that was equal to an $8m AAV today. He was a swiss-army knife forward and it was a tragedy what happened to his game post all-star injury.

Oiler fans don't know what a deep Edmonton Oilers team looks like in the salary cap era. A player like Horcoff is one that any competitive takes in an instant. Especially when you can pay him for playing the role that he's best cast in.

The great thing about RNH is that he's better than Horcoff ever was. In terms of both natural ability and endurance. And because of this recent downturn in even strength production, there's a good chance you can lock him up at a bargain.

But hey, maybe the grass is greener elsewhere. Don't look at our history on the UFA market though.

You fall in love with every player lol. The bottom line is you can't be paying players like RNH 6.5-7 million when they're 30 years old ditto for Horcoff's gross contract.

If you are getting paid that level of salary here you must be a player who can drive their own line, we don't have the cap when McDavid and Draisaitl get paid as much as they do.

RNH is going to have to take less money if he wants to stay here. If he only cares about getting top dollar, then he can go to Seattle or Columbus.

 

[syz]

RNH's fate will be determined in the playoffs

Would be surprised if it went any better than the last time, unless they split McDavid and Drai.

That's just the player he's always been though--he will not put up points on his own. Needs to be a complimentary piece in the top 6.

 

[belair]

You fall in love with every player lol. The bottom line is you can't be paying players like RNH 6.5-7 million when they're 30 years old ditto for Horcoff's gross contract.

If you are getting paid that level of salary here you must be a player who can drive their own line, we don't have the cap when McDavid and Draisaitl get paid as much as they do.

RNH is going to have to take less money if he wants to stay here. If he only cares about getting top dollar, then he can go to Seattle or Columbus.

This has nothing to do with 'falling in love' with any player. It's exceptionally easy to trash players and create a negative dialogue on them, particularly when they're players who are in the higher end of the earnings in respect to their teammates.

I tend to value players that bring tremendous value to the table. And ones that are generally difficult, if not impossible to replace. Shawn Horcoff was a fourth round draft pick that developed into a high-end two-way forward that was an integral piece of an unlikely Stanley Cup finalist. The fact that he stands out as a villain in Edmonton is incredibly sad. We got exceptional value out of this player. And the only pivots who've managed to match his top-end production since then are the guys we yanked out of the draft lottery.

I'm not arguing that we should overpay RNH. But the people ready to walk away from this player don't have a grip on how difficult it's been to find any kind of productive forward without a pick in the top five of the draft. Particularly one that can play center.

 

[ZenOil]

His ability to weave through defenders is his 'attribute'. He's an exceptionally slippery puck carrier and has a high-end ability to distribute pucks effectively on the cycle. The difference between that and the 'athletic abilities' you've named off are that he's not likely to suddenly lose that ability due to physical regression. His ability to log insane minutes may at some point, but like Horcoff his hockey sense likely allows him to continue to have a productive career well into his 30s.

It's funny that you bring up Horcoff because he's a guy who got a really bad shake as an Oiler. He was an outstanding player. We just happened to have him in a time where he had to be the primary scoring center and as a result he ended up with a contract that was equal to an $8m AAV today. He was a swiss-army knife forward and it was a tragedy what happened to his game post all-star injury.

Oiler fans don't know what a deep Edmonton Oilers team looks like in the salary cap era. A player like Horcoff is one that any competitive team takes in an instant. Especially when you can pay him for playing the role that he's best cast in.

The great thing about RNH is that he's better than Horcoff ever was. In terms of both natural ability and endurance. And because of this recent downturn in even strength production, there's a good chance you can lock him up at a bargain.

But hey, maybe the grass is greener elsewhere. Don't look at our history on the UFA market though.

Horcoff was way better at his peak/pre injury. Horc pushed the pace. Nuge plays ballet. Nuge can't even generate points playing center anymore. I like ballet.

 

[Messrules11]

PP- check
PK-check
Ryan Nugent Who?

 

[Soundwave]

This has nothing to do with 'falling in love' with any player. It's exceptionally easy to trash players and create a negative dialogue on them, particularly when they're players who are in the higher end of the earnings in respect to their teammates.

I tend to value players that bring tremendous value to the table. And ones that are generally difficult, if not impossible to replace. Shawn Horcoff was a fourth round draft pick that developed into a high-end two-way forward that was an integral piece of an unlikely Stanley Cup finalist. The fact that he stands out as a villain in Edmonton is incredibly sad. We got exceptional value out of this player. And the only pivots who've managed to match his top-end production since then are the guys we yanked out of the draft lottery.

I'm not arguing that we should overpay RNH. But the people ready to walk away from this player don't have a grip on how difficult it's been to find any kind of productive forward without a pick in the top five of the draft. Particularly one that can play center.

I mean yes it is great he can play center, though you can't really expect much offence from him at center unless you give him an All-Star tier teammate to play with.

I'm fine with signing him but he has to be reasonable in his contract ask. If he's not then really he's the one walking away, not us.

You can't pay a player who realistically would be a 40-46 point player without McDavid or Draisaitl $6.5-$7 million dollars IMO.

 

[CupofOil]

This has nothing to do with 'falling in love' with any player. It's exceptionally easy to trash players and create a negative dialogue on them, particularly when they're players who are in the higher end of the earnings in respect to their teammates.

I tend to value players that bring tremendous value to the table. And ones that are generally difficult, if not impossible to replace. Shawn Horcoff was a fourth round draft pick that developed into a high-end two-way forward that was an integral piece of an unlikely Stanley Cup finalist. The fact that he stands out as a villain in Edmonton is incredibly sad. We got exceptional value out of this player. And the only pivots who've managed to match his top-end production since then are the guys we yanked out of the draft lottery.

I'm not arguing that we should overpay RNH. But the people ready to walk away from this player don't have a grip on how difficult it's been to find any kind of productive forward without a pick in the top five of the draft. Particularly one that can play center.

Your Horcoff argument actually works against you because most of the value they got from Horcoff was before they gave him the big contract.
While still a decent bottom 6 center, his contract was a complete anchor for most of the duration.

Personally, I think Nuge will age better than Horcoff but Holland needs to be very careful to not overpay him and his play this season is giving Holland more leverage by the day.
With that said, they need to add to Nuge not replace him so he is an important signing but it needs to be a reasonable contract.

 

[Snipes45]

Look at the way they played today. Cost wise, how much does RNH push this lineup forward tonight? The roster IS BETTER with an RNH in, but by how much? We looked good at evens (That 2nd line), but it's just one game. I loved the speed they had. Excited to see this same lineup against MTL and see how that 2nd line looks. Only issue with them is that they are small even with RNH, but they sure look fast and hound the puck.

Take McDavid out. Woof. Take Drai out. Almost the same woof. Take Nurse out. Ouch.

Take RNH out. It's more of a quarter ouch

 

[McDrai]

Honestly, with Mcleod and Holloway knocking on the door, we may be best served to just bring in a C and/or LW who can hold the fort on a 2 year deal until those two are ready. If RNH is willing to do 2 years I would be ok with it. However, it looks as though he and his agent want to cash in on a long-term deal.

 

[Drivesaitl]

Look at the way they played today. Cost wise, how much does RNH push this lineup forward tonight? The roster IS BETTER with an RNH in, but by how much? We looked good at evens (That 2nd line), but it's just one game. I loved the speed they had. Excited to see this same lineup against MTL and see how that 2nd line looks. Only issue with them is that they are small even with RNH, but they sure look fast and hound the puck.

Take McDavid out. Woof. Take Drai out. Almost the same woof. Take Nurse out. Ouch.

Take RNH out. It's more of a quarter ouch

The line were transitioning faster without Nuge, which is interesting. The key is the bolded though. I mean are we 6m better with Nuge, or just playing this as a low event line? Which Yama and Kahun are reasonably capable of. Strome would look nice right about now..

lol at the telecast saying how hurting the Oilers are going to be without Nuge, and how much its going to screw up our PP, and we bag two PP goals and win the game going away. Really the score should have been something like 6-1 today I thought.

 

[Snipes45]

Honestly, with Mcleod and Holloway knocking on the door, we may be best served to just bring in a C and/or LW who can hold the fort on a 2 year deal until those two are ready. If RNH is willing to do 2 years I would be ok with it. However, it looks as though he and his agent want to cash in on a long-term deal.

I am very interested to see McLoed. Sounds like he could be called up. Looks like a good skater. We really need a guy like him to come up so we can save $$.

 

[McFlash97]

RNH has never been the type of player who has been driven to get better in every successive season. Now he seems to be regressing and we could pay him upwards of 7 million plus. Hell the f*** no. He was at his best in his rookie season. Since then it's been a major disappointment as a whole. Never improved his skating, Faceoffs, strength. Someone like Toffoli at 5 million would have made the Oilers an instant contender in place on RNH. People have overvalued this guy way to much. He is a pushover type player.

 

[MessierII]

All I know is if you can get Danault at a lower ticket it’s a no brainer.

 

[Snipes45]

All I know is if you can get Danault at a lower ticket it’s a no brainer.

Canadien fans cannot see him getting more than 4, but he probably gets close to 5 I think. He is right at the top at shutting down elite players. Not producing enough for his own liking, but he is a very good player.

 

[McShogun99]

Comparing RNH to Horcoff makes no sense. One is a 1st overall pick that made the NHL at 18 and even though he’s a good player he’s still a letdown for his draft position. The other is a late draft pick that worked his way up from the minors to become a 1st line C and one of the better 2way centers in the league before his shoulder injury.

 

[Smartguy]

This could hurt RNH on that the team isn’t really worse off without him. Yamamoto had a PP goal the other game, the PP still scored 2 last night again. That is the argument I kept reading, that the PP would struggle without him.

I keep reading and hearing “the team really misses RNH”, sure on paper it doesn’t look good, but on the ice they haven’t missed him.

If he sits the next 2-3 games, and they continue to play like last night, you’d really have to wonder if the 6M+ with term is worth the investment. When you could add 2 very good players at that price this offseason.


I want to keep him on the team, I’m a fan, but a penny over 5 with term is to much. Toffoli signed for less with term last offseason, and look at the numbers he puts up.

 

[Broberg Speed]

RNH isn't getting 6 million per year with term from any team in this league. I was originally OK with going as high as 6 million for 5 years but now, after this season, those numbers have to come down in money and term. This is another example of a player agent misreading the landscape and it will cost Nuge millions.

Best guess is 5 million x 4 years and if he decides to test the UFA waters he will get less than that.

 

[PaPaDee]

He shouldn’t get an increase from what he’s making now. If he’s not willing to sign for $6M or less, move on. We can’t afford to tie up too much cap for a player of his caliber.

 

[belair]

Your Horcoff argument actually works against you because most of the value they got from Horcoff was before they gave him the big contract.
While still a decent bottom 6 center, his contract was a complete anchor for most of the duration.

Personally, I think Nuge will age better than Horcoff but Holland needs to be very careful to not overpay him and his play this season is giving Holland more leverage by the day.
With that said, they need to add to Nuge not replace him so he is an important signing but it needs to be a reasonable contract.

What argument? I wasn't the one who brought up Horcoff. I was responding to a poster that is willing to turn over every stone to find a way to be inherently negative about specific players.

I agree Horcoff's 'big contract' placed a target on the player's back, but I also mentioned in a previous post how Horcoff's contract equalled an $8m AAV in today's market and it was based heavily on stats that were likely inflated by significant playing time with better point producers in Ales Hemsky and Ryan Smyth.

When you take into account the fact that RNH is having a down year offensively, his 'big contract' isn't likely to be as prominent financially. The main point to take away is how difficult it's been for the team historically to replace that type of productive forward.

 

[RattsSSV]

With Nuges mediocre season I was hoping he would come down in price and term. In doing so, the team could sign someone to play on his wing and give us 2 solid scoring lines.

While I'm not a fan of sign and trades, he might warrant one if he won't bend.

Also, Getting Danault as @MessierII suggested at a lower price would be good replacement. While he doesn't put up as many points, he is a versatile player.