The Flames Window of Being Contenders

[razor ray]

First post on the Flames board and just wanted to say congrats on a great Summer thus far. I think its safe to say the Flames did more to improve their roster than any other team with maybe Dallas a distant second.

From the outside it looks like management is going all in and I had a few questions:

On paper you are definite cup contenders so how long of a window do you think it will be for?

Are you worried about trading away so many draft picks to build up the roster? Just by my count I have (counting only rounds 1-3):

2nd and 3rd round 2017
1st and 2nd round 2018
2nd and 3rd round 2019

Your crystal ball thoughts on where Calgary winds up in the West seeding for the playoffs?

Thanks, in advance, for your answers.

Click to read more...

 

[BigRangy]

One question: Is Smith good?

If so, contenders

If not, probably awful

Hopefully Smith is good

 

[Butanic]

Not quite sure what our contender window is for sure but I think the reason management gave away so many picks was because they were content with what we've got in terms of prospects already.

In net, we have Tyler Parsons, arguably the best goaltender prospect in the world at the moment. Plus we have Rittich, who should at least be a backup, and Gillies, who has starter potential but needs to solidify himself.

On the blueline, we have Adam Fox, who has gone and set a bunch of NCAA records, Rasmus Andersson, whose production and underlying numbers in the AHL have been quite good, Juuso Valimaki, who looks to be a terrific value pick at #16 (great top 4 potential), as well as others like Kylington, Kulak (NHL ready) and Wotherspoon (shutdown D). Most of these guys (except maybe Kylington and Wotherspoon) should make the NHL, and could replace guys like Gio/Hamonic/Brodie should some need to be let go due to cap concerns.

Forwards is probably where we're weakest, but we still have guys like Mark Jankowski who should be at least a bottom 9 player, Dillon Dube who has looked great, and a wealth of maybe-NHLers like Klimchuk. We even made up for some of the second rounders we lost with free signings like Spencer Foo as well as late rounders stepping up like Andrew Mangiapane.

So I think the plan is probably to try and keep the Flames competitive for a while by replacing some vets with a (for the most part) deep prospect pool when necessary. The most irreplacable guys on the team right now are Gaudreau, Backlund, Monahan, Tkachuk, and Bennett since I'm not convinced too many of our forward prospects will become top 6ers. We can also trade some of the guys (especially in D) who are replaceable due to prospect depth in 3 or 4 years for picks, and hope we draft as effectively as we have been lately. So to answer your question, the Flames contender window probably revolves around those forwards, how long we can keep them, and if/how long they perform at an elite level.

 

[OvermanKingGainer]

On paper you are definite cup contenders so how long of a window do you think it will be for?

As long as:
- Mark Giordano is a defensively strong top four defenseman OR Brodie takes on his role on the first pair and one of Valimaki/Kylington or someone else take on Brodie's role on the second pair.

- TJ Brodie, Mikael Backlund, Johnny Gaudreau, Sam Bennett, Matthew Tkachuk, Sean Monahan, Mark Jankowski, Dougie Hamilton, and Micheal Ferland are Calgary Flames, or we can replace those pieces with similar talent assets.. I see a few other guys - Travis Hamonic, Michael Frolik, and Michael Stone as being positive value periphery guys we could trade as we approach the end of their deals.

Are you worried about trading away so many draft picks to build up the roster?

No. The only one that really matters is the 2018 First, and that only if we finish outside the playoffs which I am not counting on. The rest, we have a ton of assets of comparable value. Our prospect pipeline is high-end in net (Parsons/Rittich/Gillies/McDonald) and defense(Kulak/Kylington/Andersson/Valimaki/Healey/Ollas-Mattsson/Fox/Wotherspoon), and around-average-but-overall-deep at forward (Jankowski/Mangiapane/Dube/Phillips/Klimchuk/Foo/Shinkaruk/Pribyl/Tuulola/Poirier/Lindstrom/Lomberg/Hathaway). It also can't be ignored that one of those draft picks was used on Curtis Lazar who is basically a prospect. Beyond that, I wouldn't be overly shocked if one of our big project forward picks (Mitchell Mattson, Hunter Smith, D'Artagan Joly, and Adam Ruzicka) pans out.

But really, it's not a case of selling the farm to contend. Our farm is intact. The only real piece of note we have lost was Brandon Hickey, who seemed to be leaning towards testing UFA after his senior year of college. There are guys who look like they can successfully be top 6 forwards, top 9 forwards, cheap energy forwards, top pair defenseman, top four defensemen, cheap bottom pair defensemen, franchise goalies, tandem goalies, backup goalies. As far as prospects go there's no glaring hole that those lost draft picks were needed for. RHS scoring wingers is probably the only organizational hole, and I have a good feeling that a guy like Valimaki could be swapped for a guy like Alex Nylander or Brock Boeser when the time comes. And regardless, Matthew Phillips had 50 goals on an otherwise Junior A roster last year as an 18 year old, and finally there is always the mercenary market to fill that hole, as we have last year and next year with Kris Versteeg.

The only people claiming that the Flames sold their future, are those clueless about the quality of our prospect pool. It is a skilled, competitive, high-upside group. But are you really shocked it's being written off when people wrote off guys like Backlund, Brodie, Byron, Ferland, Baertschi, Granlund, Brossoit, and Gaudreau in past years? Our prospects never get any credit until they're no longer prospects.

Your crystal ball thoughts on where Calgary winds up in the West seeding for the playoffs?

Regular season seeding, as Nashville showed, and L.A. before them, is a crapshoot but given:

- The core's familiarity with Gulutzan's system
- The core's familiarity with Gulutzan's PK and PP
- Our team's pure dominance at 3v3
- Gaudreau-Monahan-Ferland as a thing to open the season
- Tkachuk-Backlund-Frolik as a thing to open the season
- A fresh slate for Bennett, Hamonic, and Brodie after seasons they would rather forget
- The Advent of Mark Jankowski

I would be disappointed if we weren't gunning for the top seed in the West or at least the division as long as our goaltending isn't letting in two softies a game.

 

[Calculon]

Don't think the Flames will be legitimate cup contenders until at least two of Monahan, Backund, Bennett and Jankowski become dominant (i.e., top 20) centres. The current window is the next three years though as a lot of key players will be up for new deals at that point (plus Giordano getting older), so hopefully the timelines work out.

If the Flames are smart and keep their good prospects, they might be able to open up another window. However, if they move their cheap depth for rentals and quick fixes, they'll probably have to aggressively retool once they core is paid and they're struggling with the cap and depth.

Hard to say where the Flames finish but anything less than contending for the division if not outright winning it next season should be considered a failure given what they gave up for Stone, Smith and Hamonic.

 

[Flames Fanatic]

Our only key positions with players over 30 are Gio and Smith. If we can replace them with younger we'll be set for a while hopefully.

Our key forwards outside of Backlund are all under 25. Lots of good D and Goalie prospects.

 

[Lunatik]

First post on the Flames board and just wanted to say congrats on a great Summer thus far. I think its safe to say the Flames did more to improve their roster than any other team with maybe Dallas a distant second.

From the outside it looks like management is going all in and I had a few questions:

On paper you are definite cup contenders so how long of a window do you think it will be for?

Are you worried about trading away so many draft picks to build up the roster? Just by my count I have (counting only rounds 1-3):

2nd and 3rd round 2017
1st and 2nd round 2018
2nd and 3rd round 2019

Your crystal ball thoughts on where Calgary winds up in the West seeding for the playoffs?

Thanks, in advance, for your answers.

Absolutely zero concerns about trading picks. The Flames have acquired extras the past few years so we would be in a position to use future picks as currency. From 2013-2016 the Flames had 14 picks in the first 3 rounds, 5 1sts, 6 2nds and 3 3rds. All while still trading 8 picks (1 1st, 4 2nds, 3 3rds) in that time.

As for the playoffs. My guess is between 1st and 3rd in the pacific.

 

[Anglesmith]

I think the window is open for at least 3 years now. Whether the window last beyond that relies on steadily developing prospects so that our depth and supporting cast can be ELCs instead of UFAs. Otherwise it will be very difficult to keep our core together.

 

[Tkachuk Norris]

Flames were contenders last year.

Like Connor McDaigle says it's up to our goaltending.

We should be a top 3 team defensively. Top 10 offensively.

We just need good goaltending but I'm a big Smith fan and I think he's the kinda guy that can carry this team to the promised land.

 

[JPeeper]

I made a longer post but it got deleted so I'll keep it short. In my opinion it comes down to two wildcards, Bennett and Smith. Ie. Bennett breaking out and Smith giving us consistency.

If we get both of those we should be a top 5 team in the league.

 

[BurnEmUp]

Flames management seems to be going hard to win a cup in the next 3 seasons before the next probable lock out by stacking the D while the key forwards are still 25 and under for the most part.

Key's for the next 2-3 seasons:

Smith, will he be good enough?
D core chemistry, good on paper, will it translate?
Center depth, Mony and Backs are solid, will at least one of Bennett, Janko or Lazar step up?

If the answer to those three questions is yes, then this is a definite contender.

After 3 seasons we will likely see a huge retooling of the D.

Brodie will be 30 and a UFA
Hamonic will be 30 and a UFA
Stone will be 30 and a UFA

Gio will be 37 and have just two years left on his deal. If his play is slipping and there is another round of compliance buy outs handed out, it's possible they use one on him. If he's still useful in a depth role, and the Flames aren't in a cap crunch then they probably just ride it out. Meanwhile:

Hamilton will be 27 and just really hitting his prime
Andersson will be 24 and may have already replaced Stone in the line up
Kylington will be 23 and probably already have a ton of NHL minutes under his belt
Fox will be 22 with probably a year or two of pro under his belt
Valimaki will be 21 and also have a year or two of pro under his belt

Those 4 D prospects, along with Rittich/Gillies/Parsons are going to be a huge factor as to whether or not the Flames 'window' can extend beyond the 3 seasons it's currently set up for.

A successful re-tooling of the D core from within, as well as a passing of the torch to one of our young goalies would go a long ways to keeping this team relevant in the Pacific for a long, long time especially when you look at the ages of our current center core of Backlund (28, would be 31), Monahan (23, would be 26), Bennett (21, would be 24), Jankowski (22, would be 25) and Lazar (22, would be 25).

 

[InfinityIggy]

I don't think our window has 'opened' as contenders, until they prove it on the ice.

If Smith does poorly or we have a couple unfortunate injuries, we aren't even a lock for playoffs.

If Bennett, Smith, Hamonic prove to be difference makers, then maybe our window opens.

At the moment I still see our moves this offseason as a dice roll.

 

[Mobiandi]

I don't think our window has 'opened' as contenders, until they prove it on the ice.

If Smith does poorly or we have a couple unfortunate injuries, we aren't even a lock for playoffs.

If Bennett, Smith, Hamonic prove to be difference makers, then maybe our window opens.

At the moment I still see our moves this offseason as a dice roll.

Couldn't said it better, myself.

 

[Johnny Hoxville]

Couldn't said it better, myself.

He's a great man, II.

 

[The Gnome]

big question: our goaltending, Smith/Lack is scary. If Smith stays healthy, I have a feeling he will be good and his puck moving skillz will do wonders for us.

Largest gap: a true top line PWF. They don't grow on trees, and can almost never be acquired via trade. At this point, if someone values Bennett's potential, I'd move Bennett+Fox for a true top line talent with size.

Though for this season, they should simply sign Jagr if he's cheap (and actually wants to come out west), see how things pan out, and make decisions at the deadline.

 

[Fig]

Management seems confident in Smith.

Something has opening for 3-5 years as evidenced in the way management has made moves IMO. We have plenty on the farm. No serious high end players there based on casual glances from other fan bases, but who knows how players pan out sometimes. We really only need farm players to fill in bottom pairing, bottom 6 and goal. FA should work fine to fill in gaps if farm players don't pan out. Our farm is actually very full. It sucks not to have picks flexibility, but we for sure would have other issues if we kept drafting with those picks. I'm not wild about Smith (yet) but management's moves do make sense.

Some of us aren't sure contention is open yet depending on Smith, but management seems to be confident enough to start getting aggressive.

IMO, we may range anywhere from Pacific 1 to WC1. The Pacific conference is close. Realistically I think Edmonton and Calgary fight for Pacific 2/3.

 

[Volica]

Window opens this year. Let's be honest, the moves the GM made were not rebuilding moves.
We acquired a ton of draft picks and got some really early picks over the past few drafts; that was our rebuild. The window opens this year, and independent of it we're a top 5 team or a bottom 5 team... That window opened.

We gave a goalie 2 years instead of 1. We traded our first for a top 4D, we picked up a backup who has previously been a great starter in this league... Like this was Treliving pushing his chips to the middle of the table and sitting back to see if anyone would do anything about it.

 

[Tkachuk Norris]

Window opens this year. Let's be honest, the moves the GM made were not rebuilding moves.
We acquired a ton of draft picks and got some really early picks over the past few drafts; that was our rebuild. The window opens this year, and independent of it we're a top 5 team or a bottom 5 team... That window opened.

We gave a goalie 2 years instead of 1. We traded our first for a top 4D, we picked up a backup who has previously been a great starter in this league... Like this was Treliving pushing his chips to the middle of the table and sitting back to see if anyone would do anything about it.

Yep. We've sucked for so long most of our fans don't know what a good team looks like.

 

[Volica]

Yep. We've sucked for so long most of our fans don't know what a good team looks like.

If this team performs as good as it can, and no one slumps as hard as last year... this team should be a top Pacific team. I know everyone is banking on Edmonton to be the top Canadian team this year; but to me they're literally sitting back and saying "our kids will just grow" not sure if McDavid is a 120 point player, and Draisaitl's a 90 point guy... but I think their internal growth is kind of... grown?

 

[Mobiandi]

Yep. We've sucked for so long most of our fans don't know what a good team looks like.

The issue with me is that we've had so much player turnover in the last 3-4 years that it's hard to know what to expect. We should be challenging for the division title this season, but until we actually show that we're more than a bubble team I am more nervous than excited for the season ahead.

 

[Mr Snrub]

If either of Bennett or Tkachuk breaks out in the way they should/could, the Flames will be on a completely different level from last year and will not be fighting for a wild card.

 

[Sparky93]

If Tkachuk hits a sophomore slump, the forward group looks deep, but overall pretty average.

 

[Flames Fanatic]

If Tkachuk hits a sophomore slump, the forward group looks deep, but overall pretty average.

I think our D is the only "proven" contender aspect at the moment.

Our forward core is not super deep if we get any combination of repeat performances from Monahan and Gaudreau, or any of the 3M steps back or Bennett fails to step up.

Our goaltending is a complete question mark as well.

 

[Mr Snrub]

If Tkachuk hits a sophomore slump, the forward group looks deep, but overall pretty average.

That's true, I hadn't thought about that. Honestly I only see him as improving given that he's already played on the top matchup line and anywhere else his game is just going to be easier to play. Then again it can have to do much more with a player's headspace than their quality of competition.

 

[The Gnome]

I think our D is the only "proven" contender aspect at the moment.

Our forward core is not super deep if we get any combination of repeat performances from Monahan and Gaudreau, or any of the 3M steps back or Bennett fails to step up.

Our goaltending is a complete question mark as well.

This, all the moves combined are looking risky at this point. Obviously with hamonic our defense is now contender status. But unless we make a massive top 6 upgrade our forwards are a huge question mark. Our Goaltending is a complete crap shoot. At some point this season Treliving will have to decide whether or not we have any shot at competing and make a trade or two accordingly.

may have to package to get a top line RW.
I don't even want to know what would need to happen if our goaltending is the issue.

Bennett, Brouwer, and Ferland have to step it up as is. If the rest of the forwards simply sustain, we should be a decent PO team, even with average goaltending.