Player Discussion The Bad Granlund Phenomenon Part 4 (mod warning post #393)

[LeftCoast]

Hockey isn't a statistical model. Actually watching the games provides some context for the numbers.

Last year, Granlund was utilized as a 2nd line offensive winger with a regular 2nd unit PP assignment. He responded with a pretty decent offensive production - at least in terms of goals. He played mostly with Sutter, Megna and Eriksson, so didn't get a lot of assists, but he made teh most of his offensive role.

This year, he is being used on a match up, shutdown line with Sutter and Dorsett with basically no PP time. Every night he matches up against the best players on the other team, so his offensive numbers have not surprisingly declined. Yes - Dorsett has scored on the same line, but let's keep in mind that of Dorsett's 7 goals, 2 are short handed and 1 is an empty net goal - neither of which reflect the play of the line as a whole.

I don't think anyone ever made the case that Granlund was an top end offensive forward. He's a decent, middle 6 utility forward who can play all three positions and perform well in a variety of roles. Cherry picking stats to demonstrate that he is either rubbish/useless or fantastic is a waste of time.

 

[Kryten]

Size of a top 6 winger
Shot selection of a top 6 winger
Brain of a bottom 6 winger
Defensive insticts of a middle 6 forward
Faceoff ability of a 13th forward

 

[y2kcanucks]

3 points in 16 games does not make one a decent middle 6 winger. And that’s not cherry picking anything.

 

[bossram]

Hockey isn't a statistical model. Actually watching the games provides some context for the numbers.

Last year, Granlund was utilized as a 2nd line offensive winger with a regular 2nd unit PP assignment. He responded with a pretty decent offensive production - at least in terms of goals. He played mostly with Sutter, Megna and Eriksson, so didn't get a lot of assists, but he made teh most of his offensive role.

This year, he is being used on a match up, shutdown line with Sutter and Dorsett with basically no PP time. Every night he matches up against the best players on the other team, so his offensive numbers have not surprisingly declined. Yes - Dorsett has scored on the same line, but let's keep in mind that of Dorsett's 7 goals, 2 are short handed and 1 is an empty net goal - neither of which reflect the play of the line as a whole.

I don't think anyone ever made the case that Granlund was an top end offensive forward. He's a decent, middle 6 utility forward who can play all three positions and perform well in a variety of roles. Cherry picking stats to demonstrate that he is either rubbish/useless or fantastic is a waste of time.

We also have numbers to capture the "context" as well.

While the Sutter line has been used against tougher competition, the line has a whole hasn't been used in excruciatingly difficult minutes. They're not really outside the normal range for quality of competition. It's not even a "hard" match. That doesn't completely explain the total lack of production, or poor shot metrics.

Never understood this "you can only capture context by watching the games" argument. Of course you should watch the games. But if you were watching them, you'd see they're not playing against McDavid every single shift. They're still going up against bottom-sixers at times. Last game against SJ, the Sutter line played primarily against SJ's 4th line, with the Sedins getting the toughest comp. So what about watch the games? You can't just say "watch the games" as an excuse to say anything you want.

 

[Nuckles]

Higgins and Hansen were middle 6 forwards. Granlund is not a middle 6 forward, especially not on a decent team. I would say he's a 3rd/4th line tweener at best.

 

[VanJack]

Many of the players have been better with their new roles under Green, but unfortunately Granlund isn't one of the them. He's now a middle-six to bottom six checker.....trusted in defensive situations but not put in any position to score goals.....of course this is generally the fate of any winger unlucky enough to the saddled with Brandon Sutter.....really thought with his wrist fully healed he'd be able to build on his 19-goal season....but not going to happen in his current role.

 

[tantalum]

Meh player reverts back to meh form....

 

[Canucks1096]

Many of the players have been better with their new roles under Green, but unfortunately Granlund isn't one of the them. He's now a middle-six to bottom six checker.....trusted in defensive situations but not put in any position to score goals.....of course this is generally the fate of any winger unlucky enough to the saddled with Brandon Sutter.....really thought with his wrist fully healed he'd be able to build on his 19-goal season....but not going to happen in his current role.

Grandlund is in that role because there is no better option. Green wants a good checking line to play against top line so this will give easier mins to the top line. Gagner Vanek Sedin Boeser and Virtanen shouldn't be in a checking role. I don't think I need explanationz. Baertschi has chemistry with Horvat. Grandlund is the only other option. None of those wingers are as good as defensively as Grandlund. There is Eriksson but you are not going pay 6 M in a checking role

 

[Canucks1096]

Higgins and Hansen were middle 6 forwards. Granlund is not a middle 6 forward, especially not on a decent team. I would say he's a 3rd/4th line tweener at best.

Grandlund is capable of getting 19 goals a season. If he didn't miss 1r games last season most likely he would of scored 20 plus. He is for sure.a middle 6 forward

 

[Canucks1096]

3 points in 16 games does not make one a decent middle 6 winger. And that’s not cherry picking anything.

To be fair his center is Sutter. No pp time. Not a lot offensive zone starts and a lot of time playing against top lines

 

[Nuckles]

Grandlund is capable of getting 19 goals a season. If he didn't miss 1r games last season most likely he would of scored 20 plus. He is for sure.a middle 6 forward

I guess Shawn Matthias is a middle 6 forward too because of one fluky year.

Shawn Matthias 2014-15: 18 goals (17 EV, 1PP) in 1022:12 TOI (7:15 on the PP)
Markus Granlund 2016-17: 19 goals (16 EV, 3 PP) in 1194:17 TOI (113:35 on the PP)

 

[Canucks1096]

I guess Shawn Matthias is a middle 6 forward too because of one fluky year.

Shawn Matthias 2014-15: 18 goals (17 EV, 1PP) in 1022:12 TOI (7:15 on the PP)
Markus Granlund 2016-17: 19 goals (16 EV, 3 PP) in 1194:17 TOI (113:35 on the PP)

Grandlund only played in 1 full season and he got 19 goals.

Matthias 8 full seasons and he has one season he scored 18 goals. That season he was middle 6 forward and but not his career.

So big difference

 

[Nuckles]

Grandlund only played in 1 full season and he got 19 goals.

Matthias 8 full seasons and he has one season he scored 18 goals. That season he was middle 6 forward and but not his career.

So big difference

That's the thing, Matthias wasn't a middle 6 forward at all that season. He performed like a 3rd/4th line tweener, kind of like Granlund. Goals aren't everything, and when they weren't scoring goals they weren't doing much. Granlund shows flashes of good skill, and occasionally has a really good game like against Dallas, but most of the time he's just not very effective. He's improved his defensive play this season, but he's still hasn't shown that he's good and consistent enough to be a 3rd liner.

 

[nuckfan insk]

Hockey isn't a statistical model. Actually watching the games provides some context for the numbers.

Last year, Granlund was utilized as a 2nd line offensive winger with a regular 2nd unit PP assignment. He responded with a pretty decent offensive production - at least in terms of goals. He played mostly with Sutter, Megna and Eriksson, so didn't get a lot of assists, but he made teh most of his offensive role.

This year, he is being used on a match up, shutdown line with Sutter and Dorsett with basically no PP time. Every night he matches up against the best players on the other team, so his offensive numbers have not surprisingly declined. Yes - Dorsett has scored on the same line, but let's keep in mind that of Dorsett's 7 goals, 2 are short handed and 1 is an empty net goal - neither of which reflect the play of the line as a whole.

I don't think anyone ever made the case that Granlund was an top end offensive forward. He's a decent, middle 6 utility forward who can play all three positions and perform well in a variety of roles. Cherry picking stats to demonstrate that he is either rubbish/useless or fantastic is a waste of time.

Just curious which line was matched against Crosby ?
Last year he was gifted big offensive minutes, pp time, and as the sedins winger. Good on him for potting a few when he had a chance. To me he’s a really replaceable player who if we got a 2nd round pick I’d ship him out in a heartbeat

 

[CanaFan]

To be fair his center is Sutter. No pp time. Not a lot offensive zone starts and a lot of time playing against top lines

40% Oz starts vs 53% last year. A drop to be sure but that doesn’t explain much of the drop. Sutter was also his Centre for a lot of last year too.

 

[elitepete]

Pretty disappointing... I wasn't as high on him as the Benning supporters, but I wasn't as down on him as everyone else. I thought he would score 25-30 point for us on our 3rd line while being stronger along the boards. Looks like I was wrong

 

[ProstheticConscience]

I've hated this player, I've hated his stupidly high levels of icetime WD showered him with, I've hated the idiotic debates with people who refuse to get it through their thick skulls I don't give a shit about Shinkaruk...

...but I don't mind him this season. If he's used as a shutdown player, fine. If he, Sutter and Dorsett make a decent shutdown line, so be it. It's a stupidly expensive shutdown line, but I don't have a problem with its cheapest part.

 

[Regal]

3 points in 16 games does not make one a decent middle 6 winger. And that’s not cherry picking anything.

It's cherry picking a small sample size

 

[member 290103]

I've hated this player, I've hated his stupidly high levels of icetime WD showered him with, I've hated the idiotic debates with people who refuse to get it through their thick skulls I don't give a **** about Shinkaruk...

...but I don't mind him this season. If he's used as a shutdown player, fine. If he, Sutter and Dorsett make a decent shutdown line, so be it. It's a stupidly expensive shutdown line, but I don't have a problem with its cheapest part.

Yeah, some semblance of satisfaction or rationalization following a Benning team is all you can really hope for. For these particular Benning acquisitions, you just have to cover your eyes and scream "lalalalalalalalal" anytime anyone brings up their salaries.

 

[Canucks LB]

As a big supporter of his, he really needs to wake the f*** up and start contributing more.

He had a solid first 10 games, but has fell off the map recently.

 

[y2kcanucks]

Grandlund only played in 1 full season and he got 19 goals.

Matthias 8 full seasons and he has one season he scored 18 goals. That season he was middle 6 forward and but not his career.

So big difference

So we need to watch Granlund have 7 more crappy seasons before you admit what I already know?

 

[y2kcanucks]

More like Y2K is a poster that a certain group of posters really want to stick it to.

And Granland is the battleground.

And they're sure sticking it to me this year.

3 points in 16 games when leading our forwards in ES ice-time. Yup...sure showed me.

I respectfully disagree.

The reason why he is hated so much because 1) a bunch of people panned the trade and they can't admit they were wrong. 2) They hate the regime so badly they can't see straight and they picked up Granlund.

The same people who hate the trade actually are the usual "because Corsi" people but since Granny doesn't have a bad Corsi they pick on his ice time as the reason he got all his points. I don't think his playing style has one bit to do with the debate.

Nope. The reason he is hated so much is because some people overhype him, while those of us who understand statistics knew what he did last year was unsustainable. He's not that good of a player. We were right. You were wrong.

This Granlund thread is bordering on the bizarre.....is he soft and cannot win board battles?....possibly, but so was just about every other forward on the Canucks....the Sedins and Sutter were a collective -60 and didn't win board battles all year either....and that's close to $19m a year in salary.

Granlund got 19 goals without any pp time, and was tethered to that anchor Sutter for most of the season on the third line, where he basically had to generate chances all on his own.

But even if Granlund is analytics bust and a candidate to be dumped on waivers, he was traded for a guy who can't even get out of the AHL....so on balance it's a win...right?

Granlund had PP time last year. Weird how you praise him for generating chances on his own last year...according to you he was able to score 19 goals despite playing with Sutter, so he should be able to do that this year too, right? Or maybe, just maybe, those of us who said it wouldn't happen again were on to something. Should have listened.

No. Some here have 'the opinion' he's a disposable, easily replaceable NHLer.
But he's not TRENDING that way based on how he looked coming down the stretch last season during his 23 yr old season (with a wonky wrist as well)...
If you are being at all objective, Granlund's last season was a great jump up in production, responsibility and development. And had the adv numbers backed it up.
He's 'trending' to be more than a disposable, easily replaceable NHLer. We should be looking forward to what he brings as a 24 yr old.

Your Opinion is trending one way.
His numbers and actual play are trending the other.

How would you say his numbers are trending now?

It'll be amusing to see what happens this season because pretty much every 'win' for Benning is a smallish skill winger (Granlund, Baertschi, Boeser, Goldobin) and there isn't going to be top-6 icetime/PP time available for more than 1 or maybe 2 of those guys, and the lustre is really going to come off a couple moves.

It has been amusing to see the silence, or the excuses from those who actually do address it.

Granlund had a Huge jump in progression after his first offseason with us... every facet of his game...
Time will tell what kind of jump hes made this season.. He looks good despite a relatively inactive offseason.

Typically a 23 yr old should be expected to improve going into their 24 yr old season. Cracked me up people thought otherwise.

He's got some HIGH praise fromt the future captain as well.

Does it still crack you up? I told ya so.

 

[Megaterio Llamas]

I'm surprised he is so unpopular here. He is a decent versatile depth forward on a good contract that cost us nothing to acquire. Or so it would appear...

 

[Wo Yorfat]

I think most of it comes from the fact that a handful of Benning bots went bananas last yr because he put up 20 goals and acted as if he was Christ on skates. For a Benning acquisition he's at least a B+. Usually they come with horrific contracts and cost more assets, so I agree, he's a nothing player but he's a homerun on the Benning scale.

 

[Melvin]

He will be in Europe soon enough