The Advanced Stats Thread Episode III: Return of the Eye Test

[silverfish]

Yeah, just like how you can't tell players to 'outattempt the other team'. You need to play solid fundamental hockey and those things should come as a product of it. Obviously when a player is on the ice he's not thinking 'I need to outshoot the other team on this shift'.

The 'outshoot the other team' was moreso meant over a long haul not really a strategy to go into a single game.

Currently, the league average Shots on Goal per game (for a single team) is 30. 30 x 2 is 60

League average goals is 2.69. 2.69 * 2 = 5.38

Thats 60 vs 5.38 events to work with per game. I don't know the average shot attempts per game, though, but on the surface is seems like Shots alone should suffice. Goals is clearly too small of a sample to be predictive. I am obvsiously not a statistician though




EDIT: just realized this is counting special teams and all non 5v5 play so it's actually a smaller sample than listed

My hypothesis is that shots on goal are better descriptors of goals (ie. evaluating past performance) while shot attempts are better predictors of goals (ie. what is going to happen).

Haven't run the #s on this, but I'm sure a quick Google search could solve it.

 

[Greg02]

Want me to run the ELO code with shot attempt differential?

 

[lilphildub]

Possession time has already been proven to be a less effective form of analysis to shot attempts. That's why most analysts aren't saying that shot attempts are a proxy for possession anymore. They're not calling them possession stats. They are their own, better, thing.

I've been saying this for the last year or so. I'm not big into analytics but used to get so annoyed when people preached about it being all about possession. Happy it came around to this