The 20-60-20 Percent Expectation....Hawks already near limit...

[hawksfan50]

There is an old hockey rule of thumb that goes like this:

Expect your team to not have it fir about 20% of games...Expect your team to dominate in 20% of games...Expect the other 60% of games to be relatively close competitive contests.

You therefore should expect even contender teams like the Hawks to have about 16 stinker not there games in the 82 game regular season...Trouble is...I have already counted 14 losses in which we stunk and a win where we won by a lone goal scored but really got dominated in the game..That is 15 stinkers already ...and no doubt more to come... And boy...have our stinkers been stinkers to high hell...


Oct. 14....Flyers 3 Hawks 0 (the Fiasco in Philly).

Oct. 17....Caps 4 Hawks 1 (Statement Lost)


Oct 24...Jets 3 Hawks 1 (The No Show in The Peg)

Oct . 26...Hawks 1 Ducks 0 (but the then struggling Ducks dominated us 39-24 in a barrage on our listless team).


Nov. 21...Canucks 6 Hawks 3 .. (The Stinker In Vancouver).


Dec. 10...Preds 5 Hawks 1 (Division Statement Game lost).

Dec 15 ..Avs 3 ...Hawks 0 (No Show at Altitude).


Dec 22...Stars 4 Hawks 0 (Another Statement Game Loss)
...

Dec. 27...Canes 2 Hawks 1 (could not get it up for only the Canes ...in our barn!).



Jan 21 ...Lightning 2 Hawks 1 (Listless 9n 5he Bay).

Jan 22...Panthers 4 Hawks 0 (a.k.a. Tallon embarrasses Stan in Miami...or also known as The Tired Excuse Destiny Loss Game).


Jan..26
...Canes 5 Hawks 0 (The Crash in Carolina...a.k.a. Peters rubs it into Q...who da better Coach now? Game).

Feb 9....Sharks 2 Hawks 0 in our barn ...The Home Cookn'not Helping Game...Wait g fir something to hapoen instead of dictating what happens.

Feb 11 ...Stars 4 Hawks 2 ...Better score than Dec. 22 ..but still a big Statement Loss again ...Fail big time ...

Feb 21 ..Wild 6 Hawks 1...ah yes...L'Embarrassment Complete ...The Shellacking In The State Of Hockey ...The Stinker Outdoors..From the Outdoors to the Outhouse Bowl. ..Twin Cities Heist...Garbage time in Minneapolis ..The Paul Bunyan Axe Job..Indianhead Scalped In Sh*tfest performance...The epitome of Country Club Loser Games...The Shame Bowl. .The Ship Sink when Nobody Pulled On The Oars Game ....Tge Professional Pride Got Pummeled Game...and finally ...Torched by Mad Minnesotans On A Day That Shall Live In Infamy...


AND SO 15 STINKERS ALREADY..and Q gets lauded as a great coach yet presided Ober all this mess?


BUT ...again it is normal to have about 16 stinkers a season for most teams (well it seems Washington is exempt from this rule this season ...but apart from them most teams cam expect about this amount t of real Stinker games..But Hawks very close to the limit ...15 already ...I GUESS WE JUST HAVE TO ACCEPT THAT WE ARE GOING TO BE ABOVE AVERAGE STINKERS THIS SEASON...
The real Question is : How do we top this with an even greater stinker game? It just is hard to imagine....but with our Q Country Clubbers we know there is more STENCH to come.

Click to read more...

 

[Sarava]

The Hawks are on a short summer - yet again. They learned last year that winning a cup is possible after a regular season that wasn't dominating (unlike their first 2 cups of this era).

They are probably pacing themselves. When they had the 12 game winning streak, anyone that knows this team saw this coming from a million miles away. We all braced for it and told ourselves not to worry about it. Yet here we are in one of these posts again.

Q will be graded as a coach based on playoff performances, not meaningless February games against the Minnesota Wild.

Take a deep breath and relax. The ride hasn't even begun yet.

 

[b1e9a8r5s]

Ok, I'll play. Using your own theory, that I've personally never heard of, if you are calling 15 stinkers, they've lost 4 games that aren't stinkers. That would mean that of the 60% close games the Hawks are something like 30-4? That's a sign of a good team, no?

 

[No Fun Shogun]

The only theory of this sort I've heard like this is the rule of thirds in baseball (every team will win a third/54 of their games and lose a third/54 of their games, it's what you do in the remaining third/54 that decides your season), so I've certainly never heard this for hockey.

The Hawks are a frustrating regular season team, as we obviously have major streaks of time off, but... who cares? April and beyond are what this team's all about. Slow starts, Decemberish hot streaks, cold Februaries, and turning it back on in April are what this team's all about. Nobody should be surprised at this point.

 

[BK]

Oct 24...Jets 3 Hawks 1 (The No Show in The Peg)

Oct . 26...Hawks 1 Ducks 0 (but the then struggling Ducks dominated us 39-24 in a barrage on our listless team).

Dec. 27...Canes 2 Hawks 1 (could not get it up for only the Canes ...in our barn!).

Jan 21 ...Lightning 2 Hawks 1 (Listless 9n 5he Bay).

Feb 9....Sharks 2 Hawks 0 in our barn ...The Home Cookn'not Helping Game...Wait g fir something to hapoen instead of dictating what happens.

Feb 11 ...Stars 4 Hawks 2 ...Better score than Dec. 22 ..but still a big Statement Loss again ...Fail big time ...

AND SO 15 STINKERS ALREADY..and Q gets lauded as a great coach yet presided Ober all this mess?

So out of you 15 you listed 9 were "stinkers" about 60% on your stinker count. That is barely passing. (4-2 game against Dallas is debatable).

50 you have a brutal over reaction habit but you do at times make good points if people read through your inability to type and create paragraphs.

FYI there is not a 20-60-20 rule in hockey.

 

[chicagoskycam]

I'm pretty sure after the turnover again during the off-season many were expecting a fringe playoff team. They may be exceeding expectations.

 

[piteus]

Come clean Fiddy ... did you get the "20-60-20 rule" from a fortune cookie?

 

[JackStrawMan]

This is pure gold

 

[Salvaged Ship]

Geez, where exactly do you get the time to research this? Your posts the last 24 hours could make up a novel if you put them all together, and the entire novel would be depressing. Chill out, as awful as it was to watch it's over.

 

[x Tame Impala]

I've heard Eddie O mention this "rule" before. Seems like it generally makes sense unless you get a team where the coach wants to "Popavich" his way through the regular season.

I feel like this is such a redundant thing to say because I'm sure that almost all of us Hawks fans on HF Boards understand it but for the small minority of naysayers/GDT ruiners, the Hawks have nothing to prove in the regular season. They won the cup as a #6 seed last year and they spent a lot of their remaining games after the deadline looking like they couldn't score and had less than spectacular possession numbers.

Make no mistake about it, the Hawks wade through the regular season and only care about the playoffs. Mostly through superior talent they're able to win more games than lose and secure a playoff spot without going balls to the wall and exhausting themselves over meaningless games in February. Quenville knows this, the players know this, MOST fans know this as well.

Being a poster on this site and not recognizing that is just ignorant, even more so when you want to make extrapolations on their bad nights and use that as an indicator for how they'll fair in the playoffs.

 

[JaegerDice]

This is not an old hockey rule of thumb, this is a very recent vintage of Eddie Olczyk's personal brand of nonsense.

 

[chicagoskycam]

Geez, where exactly do you get the time to research this? Your posts the last 24 hours could make up a novel if you put them all together, and the entire novel would be depressing. Chill out, as awful as it was to watch it's over.

If there were no internet, there would be the HF50 manifesto!

 

[piteus]

To be fair, I do find Fiddy's posts entertaining.

In a long winded way, Fiddy is talking about goal differential ... which does have merit.

In baseball, football, and basketball ... run/point differential does highlight the dominant teams.

Yes ... the Hawks have to improve. They can't make it a habit of going down by 2/3 goals before half the game is over. But it is a veteran team. I will give them the benefit of the doubt of pacing themselves throughout the regular season. If this was an inexperienced team, I'd be far more concerned. Thankfully, they aren't.

Our most pressing need is to find a top 6 forward. If Stan gets that answered, we should be well positioned for the playoffs.

 

[hawksfan50]

I am talking not only about goal differential.in games ..but stinking can also be the shot on goal differential and othernposession stats
.Some games we have won even by big scores yet we list the possession metrics battle ...my point is that over 82 games the average of teams is going to play it's best 20%of the time only...it will play it's worst games 20%of the time and the other 60%of the games it meets an opponent who competes at about even with it during the games.


ON 20% when the other team is OFF ...while not guaranteeing a win on such nights the expectation is that this situation results in big wins most of the time.

THEN the reverse...your team is OFF 20% of the games ...again in this situation you should expect to lose most of these games..


Then 60% of the schedule are close games where both teams compete at about the same level...expectation would say a 50% split of such games ..but good team's will emerge higher that 50-50 in such close contests..
.

So let us say you win 80%of your 20% of ON nights when the other team stinks ..but they still might win 20%of these through sheer luck or goalie steals even though your team dominated. .So that is 16% of all the schedule where you are On and dominate and win and 4%where you dominated but lost...Reversing this
..we get 16% where you stunk and rightfully list and 4% where you stunk but still pulled out a win...In the other 60% of the schedule that both teams compete at an even level still good team's are expected to win a higher share of these than 50-50 splits..But the mid pack average team will be closer to that 50-50 split and the bottom teams will lose a greater share of these more competitive games ...

 

[CPHawksFan]

The description of the loss in Minnesota yesterday is priceless

 

[hawksfan50]

According to the theory then...a good contender team should get about 13 dominant game wins out of 82 ,lose 3 in games they dominate in...have 13 stinkers they lose as expected and win in 3 games where they stunk ...then this good contender team ought to won about 70%of the 60% of games that are contested closely with no team dominating or stinking ..Such a good contender team on this theory (not using the complication of OT loss points or shoot-out loss points) but simply the points capture in total ..we ought to get something like 26 +6 points from dominant and steal wins (32 points out of these 32 games and winning .7 x50 = 35 of the 50 competively even games...oroduci g 102 points...good playoff team...

The point is that if the Hawks are already at 15 stinkers of which 14 were losses we probably have 5 more embarrassing stinkers ...well above expected a lot tent and so to make it up we must either also dominate more than our expected a littlest or win more close evenly contested contests than your usual 102 point team or higher...So while we do agonize over embarrassing stinkers...most of them are actually expected during g an 82 game season ..even from good team's that get over 100 points..But we do seem to be ahead of expected stinker a littlest pace already and probably will get up to 5 more..Not a concern if we make up for it with a higher than expected number of dominant wins in games remaining or in a higher than expected close game wins results than expected ...But still..when you get embarrassed in stinkers ...especially by teams with far less points I tge standings..the optics are bad..and the fans feel betrayed by their team...Our tolerance for stinkers is shaken by the realization we have had too.many of the quantity of stinkers we expect in the season ...already ..with yet 20 some games to.play ...



.

 

[BK]

According to the theory then...a good contender team should get about 13 dominant game wins out of 82 ,lose 3 in games they dominate in...have 13 stinkers they lose as expected and win in 3 games where they stunk ...then this good contender team ought to won about 70%of the 60% of games that are contested closely with no team dominating or stinking ..Such a good contender team on this theory (not using the complication of OT loss points or shoot-out loss points) but simply the points capture in total ..we ought to get something like 26 +6 points from dominant and steal wins (32 points out of these 32 games and winning .7 x50 = 35 of the 50 competively even games...oroduci g 102 points...good playoff team...

The point is that if the Hawks are already at 15 stinkers of which 14 were losses we probably have 5 more embarrassing stinkers ...well above expected a lot tent and so to make it up we must either also dominate more than our expected a littlest or win more close evenly contested contests than your usual 102 point team or higher...So while we do agonize over embarrassing stinkers...most of them are actually expected during g an 82 game season ..even from good team's that get over 100 points..But we do seem to be ahead of expected stinker a littlest pace already and probably will get up to 5 more..Not a concern if we make up for it with a higher than expected number of dominant wins in games remaining or in a higher than expected close game wins results than expected ...But still..when you get embarrassed in stinkers ...especially by teams with far less points I tge standings..the optics are bad..and the fans feel betrayed by their team...Our tolerance for stinkers is shaken by the realization we have had too.many of the quantity of stinkers we expect in the season ...already ..with yet 20 some games to.play ...



.

The point is moot because we have only had 9 "stinkers". You are chicken little at this point. Last year you post the same posts only to be wrong. The sky is not falling.

Do we have issues? Sure be every top flight team does.

 

[x Tame Impala]

Moot. The point is moot.

 

[BK]

Moot. The point is moot.

Typing on my phone...out of all the typos on this page you pick that one?

 

[cbh]

LOL op

I do find Fiddy's posts entertaining.

Some of the best reading on these boards

 

[piteus]

Moot. The point is moot.

Oh, Noooo, I'm so sorry. It's the MOOPS. The correct answer is, The MOOPS.

 

[hawksfan50]

I will try for no typos...but this phone and small letters make it difficult it seems...Anyway
.as to the 20-20-60 theory I did post that the exception is obviously the CAPS...Washington is the 1st team in NHL history to win 44 of their first 58 games ...and we can scoff at this as a fail if they again waste it by exiting the playoffs early or do not get to the Cup Final at least...but I also posted about their condensed schedule the rest of the way ...playing with less than 2 days between games on average ...Thus it is a test of their regular season of history feat ness to see if the "nornal" tiredness e
Xcuse for losses will show up or not...If not...then the obvious corollary is to fire the Hawks
c9nditioni g coach..because we did get the tiredness excuse for several losses after our 12 game win streak...If do accept tiredness excuses usually ...but if Washington still keeps winning despite their condensed schedule since mid'February,then the tiredness ecuse must forever be jettisoned for any and every team...it proves who was in condition and who was not ..So we shall see if they falter from tiredness or not
..and if not it indicates our guys were never whipped into the proper conditioning to give a higher quantity of better efforts and less quantity if tiredness excuses ...this despite Q's lax time off from.practices/morning skates he gives players...

 

[scarchelli]

That number is bs, they've won 37 games in regulation, less than mtl of 76-77, since they didn't have ot then.

 

[Ace Card Bedard]

20-60-20 is a management tool

20 percent of your emplyees are negative - don't waste time on them
20 percent are already on board - don't waste time on them
60 percent are in the middle - focus your efforts on them

The 20% is not exact, it's an approximation. It could be 15% it could be 30%.

Applying that to a hockey season doesn't seem to make much sense, nor should the 20% be a "limit" if you were to apply it.

 

[crazyhawk]

This pretty much looks like the Bell Curve which is indicative of a lot of areas of human activity.
It's just an averaging of performance, accomplishments, common traits vs uncommon traits etc etc.