% that McDavid wins the Rocket this season

[Bronxxx]

I think it will be tough but if anyone can do it it’s him especially if he puts his mind to it

Click to read more...

 

[CHRoNiCWiLL]

You need another option for -100% - 0%

 

[Regal]

Close to zero. It'd be tough even if Matthews didn't play the rest of the year.

 

[KidLine93]

Zero

 

[TheKrebsCycle]

McDavid wears 97* ^^, Crosby wears 87. And close to zero

 

[leafsfan5]

He can "put his mind to it" he's not catching Matthews under any circumstance. What McDavid is doing to the art ross race is what Matthews is doing to the rocket

 

[jetsforever]

87 isn't winning.
97 isn't either.

 

[GreeningOil]

It’s unrealistic to assume he gets to 35 let alone pass and take over past 38

 

[Hockey Outsider]

I misread the question and voted for the wrong option.

McDavid maybe has a 1% chance at this point.

 

[CanadienShark]

Close to zero. Matthews has too much of a lead, and isn't falling off.

 

[Mitch nylander]

0.01% chance

Mcdavid would need to score 10 goals in 7 games. While Matthews would need to be held goal-less in his last 5.

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Matthews has the habs 3 times, the sens once, and the jets once.

Matthews has 6 goals in 7 games against the Habs. 9 goals in 8 games against the senators. 5 goals in 8 games against the jets.

I don't see him ending the year goal-less against any of those lineups.

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I would guess Matthews will finish with 41-42, and Mcdavid to finish with 32-33.

 

[Eternal Leaf]

0.1%.

McDavid might even get to 38 goals but I don't see Matthews going goalless in his last five. He will likely put up another 2-3 goals.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

#87? Is the OP combining McDavid's totals with Crosby's? In that case, yes I think the two of them will combine for enough goals to win the Rocket this year.

 

[pabst blue ribbon]

<1%

 

[Mez]

Very unlikely, unless the Canucks completely shit the bed and Matthews stops scoring. McDavid has 7 games remaining, Matthews 5. If Matthews doesnt score 1 more goal (Not likely) McDavid would have to score over a goal a game just to catch him. I would say the chances are 1% or less

 

[Incognito]

Maybe something like a 0.0001% chance.

 

[The Moose is Loose]

5% chance- he's always scored in bunches and he had back to back hat tricks last year so I wouldn't put the percentage as low as under 1% like a bunch of posters are saying.

He seems really motivated right now to hit 100 points, so if goals present themselves as the easiest way to collect those 13 points he could get into the mid 30s goals wise, but he'd need several massive games (along with an ice cold streak from Matthews) to actually pass him.

Matthews basically has the trophy locked up. I think if McDavid really wanted to he could get back in the rocket race just by dumping pucks on the net but he's always been a pass first player and it works for him because it usually keeps possession whereas low percentage shots usually turn the puck over.

Edit: @OP I'm also confused, if you're talking about #87 (Crosby) then the chance is )% he is simply too far behind. If you meant to talk about 97 (McDavid) then I'd say less than 5%, also McDavid has 7 games left, not 6.

 

[The Moose is Loose]

Maybe something like a 0.0001% chance.

You do realize you're saying if this scenario was ran 1 million times that McDavid would only win it once.

When you're playing the way McDavid is playing this season, I think the odds have to be higher than that

 

[Incognito]

You do realize you're saying if this scenario was ran 1 million times that McDavid would only win it once.

When you're playing the way McDavid is playing this season, I think the odds have to be higher than that

What McDavid is doing is nothing short of incredible, and I'm not taking anything away from him. But there's a huge factor (one that is completely unrelated to McDavid's abilities) that carries a lot of weight here: that Matthews is scoring goals at a historic pace this season, at a similar level of dominance to how McDavid is producing points. Do I think McDavid possesses the ability to score 9 goals in his remaining 7 games? Definitely, but even that only lands him in a tie with Matthews' current tally of 38 goals. There's very little chance that Matthews is done adding to his goal totals. That's why this race is over.

 

[authentic]

You may as well have named the poll % of my own farts I inhale?

 

[The Moose is Loose]

What McDavid is doing is nothing short of incredible, and I'm not taking anything away from him. But there's a huge factor (one that is completely unrelated to McDavid's abilities) that carries a lot of weight here: that Matthews is scoring goals at a historic pace this season, at a similar level of dominance to how McDavid is producing points. Do I think McDavid possesses the ability to score 9 goals in his remaining 7 games? Definitely, but even that only lands him in a tie with Matthews' current tally of 38 goals. There's very little chance that Matthews is done adding to his goal totals. That's why this race is over.

I agree, the percentage is extremely low, but would I say 1 in a million? Definitely not.

 

[authentic]

I agree, the percentage is extremely low, but would I say 1 in a million? Definitely not.

Pretty much is, considering if Matthews never had his injury we would be talking about another 5-10 goals for him right now. First 18 games 18 goals, 12 games after the wrist injury 3 goals, then 17 goals in his last 17 games. It's not even remotely close.

 

[Incognito]

I agree, the percentage is extremely low, but would I say 1 in a million? Definitely not.

Fair enough. There wasn't really any reason why I chose that specific number. I guess I was just trying to emphasize how ridiculously unlikely it is, while at the same time still recognizing that there's still a tiny, non-zero chance.

 

[Hockey Outsider]

I re-ran the model that I've been using this season. Assuming Matthews doesn't miss any games, the race is absolutely over. My model gives him a 99.97% chance of winning the Richard trophy. McDavid has less than a 0.1% chance.

If we assume Matthews misses the rest of the season, the race is still over. In that scenario, he has a 99.92% chance of winning the Richard trophy. McDavid's chances go up to 0.2%. There are too few games remaining on the schedule for him to have any realistic chance to catch up.

If someone offered to pay me $1 if Matthews won the Richard, and I had to pay them $1,000 if anyone else took the trophy, I'd take that bet (and sleep soundly at night).

 

[The Moose is Loose]

Pretty much is, considering if Matthews never had his injury we would be talking about another 5-10 goals for him right now. First 18 games 18 goals, 12 games after the wrist injury 3 goals, then 17 goals in his last 17 games. It's not even remotely close.

So you would take a bet where if Matthews wins the rocket you win 1 dollar, but if he loses you pay me a million?

Hell thats a deal I would make (if I ignore the fact you'd actually never pay me if it happened)