Speculation: Tavares Tells Toronto, "I'm YOUR Huckleberry Now". Fans leaguewide mourn.

[Alklha]

From all "reports" he has a blank check offer.... most numbers thrown out are a 100m contract. Waiting would make sense if Snow is trying to get it lower

$100m is "only" $12.5m over the 8 years and is still manageable. When they are paying Ladd, Clutterbuck and Cizikas $12.35m for the next 3+ seasons, I don't think their GM is too worried about penny pinching.

It might just simply be that Tavares doesn't want to deal with negotiations during the season. He might have told them in the summer to sort out the arena situation and not worry about the contract because it'll get worked out at the end of the season, assuming they get the arena sorted.

I'm not seeing the fact he hasn't signed yet as some big sign that he won't extend with the Islanders. It's still the most likely scenario. But every day that passes is another day closer to UFA.

As for the Blues potentially offering $12m to Tavares, we also have to be aware of the potential knock on effects of such a deal. Karlsson and Doughty are going to have a significant impact on the Pietrangelo extension, which we can do in 18 months time. But I'd also want to be pointing to Hedman at $7.85m and not have Pietrangelo pointing at us paying Tavares $12m. If the best forward isn't taking a discount, what argument is there to expect Pietrangelo to be willing to? I'm not comfortable with committing over 25% of the cap to two players.

I mean, if it takes $12m to get Tavares, then you still have to do it. The difference between ~$10m and ~$12m is massive though.

 

[Dbrownss]

$100m is "only" $12.5m over the 8 years and is still manageable. When they are paying Ladd, Clutterbuck and Cizikas $12.35m for the next 3+ seasons, I don't think their GM is too worried about penny pinching.

It might just simply be that Tavares doesn't want to deal with negotiations during the season. He might have told them in the summer to sort out the arena situation and not worry about the contract because it'll get worked out at the end of the season, assuming they get the arena sorted.

I'm not seeing the fact he hasn't signed yet as some big sign that he won't extend with the Islanders. It's still the most likely scenario. But every day that passes is another day closer to UFA.

As for the Blues potentially offering $12m to Tavares, we also have to be aware of the potential knock on effects of such a deal. Karlsson and Doughty are going to have a significant impact on the Pietrangelo extension, which we can do in 18 months time. But I'd also want to be pointing to Hedman at $7.85m and not have Pietrangelo pointing at us paying Tavares $12m. If the best forward isn't taking a discount, what argument is there to expect Pietrangelo to be willing to? I'm not comfortable with committing over 25% of the cap to two players.

I mean, if it takes $12m to get Tavares, then you still have to do it. The difference between ~$10m and ~$12m is massive though.

Good points. As for Petro....He's an excellent player but imo he isnt in Doughty/Karlsson territory. Look at right now, Petro can't consistently produce at a top 5 level. So I wouldn't comp him to guys when healthy are the postet boys for the NHL dman.

 

[Alklha]

Good points. As for Petro....He's an excellent player but imo he isnt in Doughty/Karlsson territory. Look at right now, Petro can't consistently produce at a top 5 level. So I wouldn't comp him to guys when healthy are the postet boys for the NHL dman.

True, but it's one of those things that doesn't really matter too much at that point. Pietrangelo is a top-10 player in a premium position, so he holds all the cards approaching UFA. If he went to UFA, then I'd expect him to have offers over $10m when the cap is $80m+.

To be competitive we need to be able to retain our top players are below UFA prices. Chicago have struggled since they failed to do that with Kane and Toews.

In a vacuum, paying Tavares $12m is manageable. It's just knowing whether there will be knock on effects from such a deal.

 

[Vincenzo Arelliti]

If Petro wants crazy money because Tavares, then we can figure that out then. By then Petro might have two rings.

If there was ever a time to take a discount, it would be to stay on a stacked Blues team with Tavares, Tarasenko, Schwartz, and Parayko.

 

[Halak Ness Monster]

I've read a few pages trying to get caught up here:

Someone mentioned that Friedman said a team is willing to offer 15 million per year for 7 years. Yeah that is truly insane. It sets your team up to pretty much become the Islanders: Tavares and relying on cheap rookies like Barzal with castoffs in net.

Maybe I'm an idiot...I've considered this possibility...but I really like where our center depth is heading. Brayden Schenn is a #1 this year. He's also young enough to make me believe he has hit his prime and found an extra gear and is a true #1 for the next 5 years. Kinda like a Patrick Marleau. Not too mention he is finally getting to play with top tier wingers and it is going very well. What Schenn is doing now is what everyone thought he'd be doing when he was a prospect.

Then add in Robert Thomas. This kid is a true center and all the reports on him are positive. I think he is in the NHL next year as a 3C and is a 50-60 point center down the road. Maybe by his 3rd NHL season.

While I'd love John Tavares, I just don't think we are nearly as desperate to add him as we were before the 2017 draft when we added Schenn and Thomas.

 

[Ranksu]

True, but it's one of those things that doesn't really matter too much at that point. Pietrangelo is a top-10 player in a premium position, so he holds all the cards approaching UFA. If he went to UFA, then I'd expect him to have offers over $10m when the cap is $80m+.

To be competitive we need to be able to retain our top players are below UFA prices. Chicago have struggled since they failed to do that with Kane and Toews.

In a vacuum, paying Tavares $12m is manageable. It's just knowing whether there will be knock on effects from such a deal.

Bolded: What about 8.5mill.$ for Pietro? 6.5mill.$---->10mill.$ is bit high jump imo. Duncan Keith contract looks so good.

 

[Vincenzo Arelliti]

A word of caution on Thomas - his offensive game will be tougher to transfer to the NHL than some think due to his “slower” play. I’m not saying he’s a slow skater, has poor vision, or doesn’t compete hard - because he does - but I have noticed in both Thomas and Kyrou that they don’t make hard, fast passes, and don’t play with intensity.

Whenever I watch Barzal, I’m always impressed by his intensity with and without the puck. Barzal is a game breaker because he makes fast, hard, and accurate passes, attacks the puck carrier, and skates aggressively with the puck on his stick. Skating aggressively in both the OZ and on defense is incredibly important to being a difference maker at the NHL level. Thomas and Kyrou both take a more cerebral? approach, and don’t make highlight reel plays. Both of them just make the right plays at the junior level, and because they don’t need to do more than that, they look good against junior competition. At the NHL level, I don’t think they will be as successful. Barzal has that perfect match of being able to think the game at a very high level (he pulls the opponent by giving them space and then zooming in for a takeaway), while also having a strong motor with and without the puck.

Thomas and Kyrou will both be 2nd line players in some capacity, IMO. However, in order to reach that level and continue to raise their ceiling higher, both of them are going to have to adjust to the NHL speed and make big plays while being more aggressive. I think they are both capable of learning to do that, but that is my red flag with both players in juniors at this point.

You do not pass on John Tavares, who is everything Thomas aspires to be at his absolute peak. They are actually both similar players in that neither makes highlight plays every game - but both always make the right decision, and can carry their team through strong overall play. Tavares obviously has the ability to turn it up a notch during clutch time, and that is something I don’t see yet from Thomas.

 

[The Note]

Yeah I wouldn’t do the 15 x 7 (and I doubt he’ll be looking for that) but for 10-11 AAV there’s no reason the Blues shouldn’t be actively pursuing him. Basically if he hits FA the Blues should be all in.

 

[Brian39]

If Tavares is determined to test UFA then I wouldn't want to even make a trade offer. Why pay in quality assets when we can just make our bid along with everyone else. If the Isles start shopping him all that says to me is that he will hit UFA and isn't worth giving up assets for. If he wants to come here he'll just sign with us and we get to keep all our prospects to help fill the inevitable holes left after we move out some vets to accommodate Tavares cap hit moving forward. I must admit I really like our chances if he hits UFA so I'm perfectly fine standing pat at this deadline. However that raises a question.

Does grabbing a forward before the deadline help strengthen our cause getting JT to pick us? I would think it would and that if we can fit that player going forward perhaps we should pursue someone. Food for thought......

Being the team who holds his rights after the season gives you a hell of a leg up on every other team making a pitch. Beyond helping for a Cup run this year, it would allow us to offer an 8 year deal instead of a 7 year deal. 8 years at $11 mil per is the same amount of guaranteed money as 7 years at $12.5 mil. Your bid is much more likely to be accepted if you can offer 1 more year than everyone else.

I also really like our chances to get him in UFA, but that is relative to other teams. best case scenario, if you don't hold his rights, the chances of getting him via UFA are less than 25%.

 

[Brian39]

The longer into the season with things going okay with the isles so far in terms of arena situation and their record plus barzal makes me think he'll stay.

Had barzal not emerged, and the arena deal was still in question I think he'd have walked/asked to be moved.

They're on pace to finish with 89 points, which would be a full 5 points worse than they were last year. The arena deal and emergence of Barzal are definitely pros for the Isles, but I can't imagine their record this season is pulling him towards staying. If I were Tavares, I'd be deeply concerned that my 57 points in 49 games while driving the league's best offense still isn't enough to get this franchise into the playoff picture in the East.

 

[TK 421]

Being the team who holds his rights after the season gives you a hell of a leg up on every other team making a pitch. Beyond helping for a Cup run this year, it would allow us to offer an 8 year deal instead of a 7 year deal. 8 years at $11 mil per is the same amount of guaranteed money as 7 years at $12.5 mil. Your bid is much more likely to be accepted if you can offer 1 more year than everyone else.

I also really like our chances to get him in UFA, but that is relative to other teams. best case scenario, if you don't hold his rights, the chances of getting him via UFA are less than 25%.

Yes I understand but wouldn't pay in assets to acquire him and turn around to pay huge money on top of that. If Snow is willing to deal him that means JT is already intending to hit UFA so I guess it would depend on acquisition cost for me. Not wanting to pay a premium for guy that we have a strong chance of signing for just money. How much would you pay Brian? Just curious.

 

[Brian39]

Yes I understand but wouldn't pay in assets to acquire him and turn around to pay huge money on top of that. If Snow is willing to deal him that means JT is already intending to hit UFA so I guess it would depend on acquisition cost for me. Not wanting to pay a premium for guy that we have a strong chance of signing for just money. How much would you pay Brian? Just curious.

I think the difference in our opinion is how strong our chance is of signing him as a UFA. Best case scenario, I think the chances of us signing him as a UFA if we can only offer 7 years is about 15%. And that is probably overly generous. I think that number is as high (or higher) than every other team only offering 7 years, but that doesn't mean the actually chance of signing him is very high. I think whatever team holding his rights on July 1st has a 50% or better chance of being the winner in the UFA bidding. That's a drastic difference.

With all that said, I don't think I'd pay the price required at the trade deadline. I like our prospect pool too much to gut it for a coin flip chance of landing Tavares long term. I'm a pretty risk averse guy in general though. Right or wrong, I think the Isles are content to hold on to his rights so they can offer the best contract on July 1. I think they'd absolutely have to get blown away in order to lose that advantage and would likely hang up if our offer didn't include Parayko or what they view as two of our top 3 prospects.

I'm not saying we should trade for him as a rental, I was just pointing out that the assets you spend in that trade aren't solely for a playoff push. It is for this playoff push, a chance to showcase your organization prior to free agency and the advantage of being able to offer an extra year more than the teams you're bidding against.

 

[The Note]

Over the main trade boards yesterday an Isles fan posted a thread exploring the value of JT assuming he has an 8 year, 11 million dollar extension in place for next year. Said big needs for the Isles are obviously picks and prospects, but also a young top 4 d-man, and someone who could play 2 C ideally right now. Thomas has to be in there, as well as the ‘19 first I’d imagine. Probably another prospect as well. Stastny would be a nice 2C for them but his UFA status hampers his value. Edmundson is young and a top 4 Dman at this point I’d say. I found it interesting trying to get the value right given those needs. What would you offer?

 

[TK 421]

Filling the Isles needs would take us right out of contender status if they would require one of our defensemen. Thomas + 2019 1st + Parayko/Edmundson/Dunn. I mean they're not taking Jbo off our hands, they're going to want Parayko or Edmundson most likely. Ouchy...I'll take my 15% shot in UFA and be sanguine about my Schenn/Stastny/Thomas plan B methinks.

 

[Alklha]

Over the main trade boards yesterday an Isles fan posted a thread exploring the value of JT assuming he has an 8 year, 11 million dollar extension in place for next year. Said big needs for the Isles are obviously picks and prospects, but also a young top 4 d-man, and someone who could play 2 C ideally right now. Thomas has to be in there, as well as the ‘19 first I’d imagine. Probably another prospect as well. Stastny would be a nice 2C for them but his UFA status hampers his value. Edmundson is young and a top 4 Dman at this point I’d say. I found it interesting trying to get the value right given those needs. What would you offer?

The situation in that thread isn't realistic.

If Tavares is doing a sign and trade, then he isn't open to go anywhere. He is looking at one or two teams, and then the Islanders need to work with them. Or, he waits until UFA and goes to one of those teams for nothing. There isn't a bidding war for an extended Tavares.

If the Tavares says he'll do a sign and trade with the Blues at the deadline, the Islanders will probably want a 1-for-1 deal with Parayko. High value, established piece rather than a bunch of smaller maybes. Would you do that when you know Tavares is going to UFA and is interested in signing here?

 

[DatDude44]

Good points. As for Petro....He's an excellent player but imo he isnt in Doughty/Karlsson territory. Look at right now, Petro can't consistently produce at a top 5 level. So I wouldn't comp him to guys when healthy are the postet boys for the NHL dman.

If your only concern is point production then yes petro doesn't compare, but if you want a guy who is consistently fantastic defensively, controls and slows the play down, consistently makes smart heady tape to tape passes in the d-zone as well as in transition in the NZ, then i easily put petro as an overall defensemen in the same tier as those guys....He easily has the best stick detail and stick on puck then any of those guys and honestly this year he's been much better than EK overall IMO

 

[The Note]

The situation in that thread isn't realistic.

If Tavares is doing a sign and trade, then he isn't open to go anywhere. He is looking at one or two teams, and then the Islanders need to work with them. Or, he waits until UFA and goes to one of those teams for nothing. There isn't a bidding war for an extended Tavares.

If the Tavares says he'll do a sign and trade with the Blues at the deadline, the Islanders will probably want a 1-for-1 deal with Parayko. High value, established piece rather than a bunch of smaller maybes. Would you do that when you know Tavares is going to UFA and is interested in signing here?

No, I wouldn’t and I’d imagine you are correct. I guess it was interesting to me simply because I hadn’t known what the islanders, or at least their fans on here, consider “needs.” And trying to craft a competitive offer around that. But your point is well taken that it would never come to fruition in actuality.

 

[DatDude44]

A word of caution on Thomas - his offensive game will be tougher to transfer to the NHL than some think due to his “slower” play. I’m not saying he’s a slow skater, has poor vision, or doesn’t compete hard - because he does - but I have noticed in both Thomas and Kyrou that they don’t make hard, fast passes, and don’t play with intensity.

Whenever I watch Barzal, I’m always impressed by his intensity with and without the puck. Barzal is a game breaker because he makes fast, hard, and accurate passes, attacks the puck carrier, and skates aggressively with the puck on his stick. Skating aggressively in both the OZ and on defense is incredibly important to being a difference maker at the NHL level. Thomas and Kyrou both take a more cerebral? approach, and don’t make highlight reel plays. Both of them just make the right plays at the junior level, and because they don’t need to do more than that, they look good against junior competition. At the NHL level, I don’t think they will be as successful. Barzal has that perfect match of being able to think the game at a very high level (he pulls the opponent by giving them space and then zooming in for a takeaway), while also having a strong motor with and without the puck.

Thomas and Kyrou will both be 2nd line players in some capacity, IMO. However, in order to reach that level and continue to raise their ceiling higher, both of them are going to have to adjust to the NHL speed and make big plays while being more aggressive. I think they are both capable of learning to do that, but that is my red flag with both players in juniors at this point.

You do not pass on John Tavares, who is everything Thomas aspires to be at his absolute peak. They are actually both similar players in that neither makes highlight plays every game - but both always make the right decision, and can carry their team through strong overall play. Tavares obviously has the ability to turn it up a notch during clutch time, and that is something I don’t see yet from Thomas.

I couldn't disagree more w/ your assessment on thomas. Kyrou, yes i see it, Kyrou imo is a high speed player w/ some not a ton of talent, doesn't make a ton of high end smart hockey plays but is still pretty good, pretty good vision, speed and hands but other than speed nothing "great" imo.....But Robert thomas, i've watched multiple games of him in london last year(just all his shifts and just keyed in on him) as well as world junior summer showcase games and WJC games this year. I came away impressed with his ability to not only make plays and control the puck/see the ice at top speed, but his pure hockey sense when he's down low either protecting the puck or supporting a teammate in a battle, how he can get the puck on his stick and right away w/ no hesitation he puts on his teammates tape in the slot or a dman creeping in. his ability to make passes quickly is exactly what i like about him, as well as his hands, shiftiness and ability to win battles and get the puck off the wall. I personally am wayyy higher on thomas than i am Kyrou and I see thomas at minimum being a 2nd liner for us down the road, Kyrou i see 2nd line as his peak. Maybe more of a speedy 2nd/3rd line scoring tweener.

I also love thomas's defensive game, he's always in position to be that 2nd layer down low helping out his D and he never cheats up the ice, he's always available to support the D or the wing when breaking out and has a good brain in his own zone, seems to always have his head on a swivel and is aware of where everyone is.

 

[Dbrownss]

If your only concern is point production then yes petro doesn't compare, but if you want a guy who is consistently fantastic defensively, controls and slows the play down, consistently makes smart heady tape to tape passes in the d-zone as well as in transition in the NZ, then i easily put petro as an overall defensemen in the same tier as those guys....He easily has the best stick detail and stick on puck then any of those guys and honestly this year he's been much better than EK overall IMO

Doughty and EK play at a consistent base throughout the season with very short lows. Petro's slumps are longer. It's not just production, its his overall play. Also those guys are elite offensive instincts while Petro's is just very good.

 

[Alklha]

No, I wouldn’t and I’d imagine you are correct. I guess it was interesting to me simply because I hadn’t known what the islanders, or at least their fans on here, consider “needs.” And trying to craft a competitive offer around that. But your point is well taken that it would never come to fruition in actuality.

It's an interesting talking point, but some Islanders fans seem to think they would have a bidding war and be looking at Parayko++.

It's a similar situation as we were in with Shattenkirk, where his value is going to be dictated by his willingness to extend.

We could have got Drouin for an extended Shattenkirk at this time last year. While Drouin was a high value piece, he was also viewed as expendable and not integral to their offense.

I don't think that we would have a comparable piece to centre a trade around in a deal for Tavares. If the Snow made that call asking for Parayko at the deadline, I imagine Armstrong would counter with something that looked like a rental price + Fabbri.

A scenario like the one in that thread is less about the Islanders needs and more about them getting the value they can, because they know he's gone.

 

[Vincenzo Arelliti]

I couldn't disagree more w/ your assessment on thomas. Kyrou, yes i see it, Kyrou imo is a high speed player w/ some not a ton of talent, doesn't make a ton of high end smart hockey plays but is still pretty good, pretty good vision, speed and hands but other than speed nothing "great" imo.....But Robert thomas, i've watched multiple games of him in london last year(just all his shifts and just keyed in on him) as well as world junior summer showcase games and WJC games this year. I came away impressed with his ability to not only make plays and control the puck/see the ice at top speed, but his pure hockey sense when he's down low either protecting the puck or supporting a teammate in a battle, how he can get the puck on his stick and right away w/ no hesitation he puts on his teammates tape in the slot or a dman creeping in. his ability to make passes quickly is exactly what i like about him, as well as his hands, shiftiness and ability to win battles and get the puck off the wall. I personally am wayyy higher on thomas than i am Kyrou and I see thomas at minimum being a 2nd liner for us down the road, Kyrou i see 2nd line as his peak. Maybe more of a speedy 2nd/3rd line scoring tweener.

I also love thomas's defensive game, he's always in position to be that 2nd layer down low helping out his D and he never cheats up the ice, he's always available to support the D or the wing when breaking out and has a good brain in his own zone, seems to always have his head on a swivel and is aware of where everyone is.

Well that’s a relief. I’ll admit I have not watched Thomas as much as you, and I definitely respect your opinion on these matters. I definitely never thought Thomas wouldn’t be top-6 due to just his overall game, but I was hesitant that his offense would be 1C caliber. I do however think Kyrou ends up in the top-6 for us, and while he comes across as less skilled, I think the total package plus the skating puts him in Barzal territory if only he had a higher motor.

I’ll need to watch more of Thomas - I keep adding things to my list (NYI, OTT, London, Sarnia, Hamilton, Seattle). I hope I see the same thing as you when I watch more London games pre-TDL.

 

[DatDude44]

Well that’s a relief. I’ll admit I have not watched Thomas as much as you, and I definitely respect your opinion on these matters. I definitely never thought Thomas wouldn’t be top-6 due to just his overall game, but I was hesitant that his offense would be 1C caliber. I do however think Kyrou ends up in the top-6 for us, and while he comes across as less skilled, I think the total package plus the skating puts him in Barzal territory if only he had a higher motor.

I’ll need to watch more of Thomas - I keep adding things to my list (NYI, OTT, London, Sarnia, Hamilton, Seattle). I hope I see the same thing as you when I watch more London games pre-TDL.

I would love to see kyrou end up like barzal, i'll be honest i don't see him being THAT good, but i certainly don't think he's just a magnus paajarvi.

Haha well you should add Hamilton to that list since London traded thomas there lol.

 

[Vincenzo Arelliti]

I would love to see kyrou end up like barzal, i'll be honest i don't see him being THAT good, but i certainly don't think he's just a magnus paajarvi.

Haha well you should add Hamilton to that list since London traded thomas there lol.

I’ve watched Hamilton since he was traded, and I still try to watch London amongst the rest because I’m a fan and really like Formenton (and he’s a Sens prospect, and they’re my favorite franchise in the East). I’m really not a fan of Hamilton though, and don’t think it’s a good fit for Thomas in general, but I’ll hold my final judgment for another week or so.

I don’t mean to imply Kyrou is Barzal-good. He doesn’t have the motor, which is a big thing to be missing since it makes Barzal what he is, but I do see a similarity to their skill set - although I give the edge handedly to Kyrou when it comes to skating. They are a wash when it comes to vision, hands, and shot, IMO. Barzal is a center, and has a superior saucer, is more aggressive, and is better on the rush. Kyrou won’t ever be gamebteaking like Barzal unless he improves in those areas. I peg Kyrou as a top-6 winger if all works out, and if he improves I the above ways he could be a true 1st liner (but I doubt he improves much in the ways I described).

 

[The Note in MI]

Thomas in Hamilton is sad he was a great fit in London. Can tell he's not as comfortable with his line mates yet.

 

[Alklha]

Thomas in Hamilton is sad he was a great fit in London. Can tell he's not as comfortable with his line mates yet.

He was held pointless in 5 of his first 6 games for London this season, so he got off to a slow start there. Although, he is doing okay on the scoresheet so far for Hamilton (1-7-8 in 5 games). I'm sure he'll adapt quickly.