$$$$ talks - how the owners may be planning to split the union.

Discussion in 'The Business of Hockey' started by eye, Mar 2, 2005.

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  1. eye

    eye Registered User

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    Whether it's an Impasse or just lifting the lock out how would players that made less than a million a year in previous contracts respond if they were offered a raise, yes - raise, perhaps double of what they made in the past to play in the new NHL next year?

    3rd and 4th liners and players at or near the end of their careers may just jump at it creating a split among players. Thoughts?
     
  2. Prof_it

    Prof_it Registered User

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    How would that prevent salary inflation?

    Also, I realize that 3rd & 4th liners may be the likeliest to cross but would you really want a league with such diluted talent that it rewards its most marginal talent?
     
  3. triggrman

    triggrman Registered User

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    You mean like Nashville first 2 years? Yes I went to every game. Our best player was Darren Turcotte or Cliff Ronning.
     
  4. kolanos

    kolanos Registered User

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    The theory, I am assuming, is that this would be under a new CBA which the owners devise. In other words, a CBA that the bottom 375 can accept. The buttom 375 players defect from the NHLPA and sign-on with this new deal, after a season or two the top 375 will either give in and join the new PA or stay in Europe/retire. In other words, exactly what will happen even if we get a CBA tomorrow, estimates being that there will be approximately 150 players either staying in Europe or retiring.

    The fans will have to settle for their 3rd/4th liners and be without their stars for a season or two, but it's better than nothing, no? Career minor leaguers will fill the spots where needed.

    Obviously that's simplified quite a bit, there are a lot of hurdles to something like that.
     
  5. CGG

    CGG Registered User

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    Who is estimating this? You? Obviously with 700 players, a handful will retire, but what evidence do you have to suggest that even one player, actual bona fide NHL player, will stay in Europe instead of coming back to the NHL if there is a new CBA in place that the NHLPA ratifies?
     
  6. kolanos

    kolanos Registered User

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    TSN was estimating this around Feb 16th.
     
  7. mr gib

    mr gib Registered User

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    do you think this stuff up or does it just come to you?
     
  8. mackdogs*

    mackdogs* Guest

    I'm still trying to figure out what this means... but I think he has a very valid question here. If union solidarity is as strong as the PA makes it out to be there's no reason to think someone would cross the line for their old salary. If the NHL does use replacement players there main goal would be to get players to cross. The most likely are the bottom half. Since they likely won't cross for the status quo I think you would have to chuck them some more money and that would start the busting of the dam that would see most players flock back.

    This also falls in line with what the NHL wanted with their version of the rollback. They wanted the top end players to feel the brunt of this while the lower end players would take no pay cut. IMO the league would love to pay the bottom half significantly more if it meant they could pay the top half significantly less.
     
  9. mr gib

    mr gib Registered User

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    the league can't do that - they're just gonna have to negotiate a fair deal -
     
  10. eye

    eye Registered User

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    Why not?

    P.S. whatever deal is offered by the NHL now will never be considered fair by the players side unless they all of a sudden come to their senses and consider 55% linkage fair.

    By the way, Impasse is not the only way to start a new NHL.
     
  11. Bicycle Repairman

    Bicycle Repairman Registered User

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    It's considered an Unfair Labor Practice to entice employees with financial incentives to cross a picket line.
     
  12. mr gib

    mr gib Registered User

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    concerning impasse i agree - might be harder than i thought - which makes it even more vital that the league come to the table and negotiate -
     
  13. Prof_it

    Prof_it Registered User

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    Unless it's clear that you are overpaying these players to lure them back to the league won't these inflated salaries impact future negotiations? I understand that they would be playing under the NHL's terms, but if Mathieu Dandenault was making $2.5 million (he made approx 1.5 last year) what would others be worth?

    I think the idea is valid if the league choses to go with replacement players. The NHL would like nothing more than to see some of the players abandon the union. But i'm not sure inflating salaries, when you're crying poverty is the best strategy. If the owners were not able to control their spending in the past, this surely would be a bad start to attempting to control salaries in the future.
     
  14. CGG

    CGG Registered User

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    Enlighten us, please.
     
  15. djhn579

    djhn579 Registered User

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    I think one of the biggest concerns of the younger players and lower earning players is that if a salary cap is instituted, the top players will get their money, and those below them will see their pay decreased more to pay for those top players.

    If the NHL really wanted to put these fears to rest and split the union, they just need to specify the average payroll for the lowest 5 players on the team and the next highest players on the team. If the NHL were to specify the bottom 5 were to receive at least 15% (For example, I'm just guessing at what the numbers could be...) of the salary cap, and the next 5 had to recieve at least 20% of the salary cap, those players would know that they could only be squeezed so much and that the top players would be be left to fight for whatever was left.

    This would make a cap much easier to accept for the lower half of the league, though the top players would probably hate it.
     
  16. kolanos

    kolanos Registered User

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    Build it and they will come...

    You don't necessarily have to offer inflated incentives to the bottom 375 to get them to defect. All you really have to do is create it and wait. The bottom 375 are the first to begin feeling the pinch, and as such will be the first to have to start to consider defecting from the PA. The replacements from the minor leagues will come in, some FAs that formerly played in the NHL included -- and you will see a trickle of NHLPA players from the bottom up.

    Obviously the NHL will have to setup a CBA that answers the concerns of those bottom 375 players for this to work -- but I think the NHL would have been open to that anyway, it's the top 375 that stifles any progress in that regard. Obviously the owners would include a grandfathering system into this new CBA so if a player defects from the PA they will remain the property of their respective teams (assuming they are an RFA).
     
  17. kolanos

    kolanos Registered User

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  18. Chayos

    Chayos Registered User

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    you will have stars in the league but they will be 18-21 years old. The Younger players who haven't earned much or anything at all will cross for the chance to be be well paid instead of flipping burgers.

    Teams will have players like Jeff carter, Bergeron, crosby and other young players who are more than willing to play as replacemtn players at the rookie max and be in 1st and 2nd line duty to start. The owners will sell this new breed of players and sure they will make mistakes, but hey if those mistakes lead to more scoring then so be it.

    I would rather watch Oiler game with young guys making mistakes than 2-1 yawners with 2nd rate players because the rangers and stars keep sigining all our UFA's. The players league will fail because they won't have the will to really go to war for the teams they are playing for. Would you ever in a million years see a fight or even a real hard body check in those games? Did you see the disgraceful Worldstars games? Man who would ever want to see more than one of those. Its like watching an old timers game but in these ones its Joe thorton pulling the ref's pants down.

    The players can talk about a fair deal and all that but in the end they have to make a deal or they get one instituted that will be worse than they can possibly imagine.

    Man I will laugh if they remain firm and the NHL does the impasse thing and institutes a linked $31 million dollar cap with no arbitration. The players will be wishing for that amazing $42.5 unlinked deal for the rest of their careers.

    The players will lose big the longer they wait and if they make the owners suffer they will get it back ten fold.

    I read a quote from an anon owner the other day that really cracked me up it said to paraphrase " Bob doesn't understand the difference between millionaires and Billionaires." which is so true. The players are like Iraq was strutting and talking the Anti Us talk and the the American Army showed them the error of thier ways. I don't agree with the politics of it but the analogy is close. The NHl owners are like a super power going to war with a small country. Anotehr quote that come to mind
    " people should know when they are conquered" from Gladiator.
     
  19. dedalus

    dedalus Registered User

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    Problem: it's not.

    Everyone has agreed to quote the party line right now because there's nothing more at stake. No further paychecks are on the line.

    Next October when the players are again being asked to give something up, you'll begin to hear the Dagenais, Rays, Commodores, etc. This time you'll also hear more stars grumbling. No one will forget Goodenow's unannounced reversal on a cap as they look at their checkbooks and their next mortgage payment.
     
  20. mr gib

    mr gib Registered User

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    oh boy
     
  21. eye

    eye Registered User

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    You heard one option yesterday. Sell the NHL and run each team like it's a McDonald's franchise.

    Not sure about this one but another option could be to simply lift the lockout. Select players will be offered contracts in a free market system. With less than a 1/3 of current NHL players under contract for next season the owners can be choosy. The PA may call a strike or decertify but then that opens up the door for replacement players without having to declare an Impasse. You may only see 15 teams using 18 man rosters with 15 others suspending play for the short term but the NHL will resume play next year one way or the other.

    There has to be other options and I'm sure between the dozens of successful owners they have enough legal help and expertise to find a way.

    What do you think the players would consider a fair deal today, next week, next month or in September. The longer they wait the further away they get from the 42.5 hard they already walked away from and now linkage will be 100% guaranteed. The owners cannot afford to agree to a hard cap without linkage because as the players will find out when and if they do return they will be playing in front of far less fans with less corporate support and tv revenue than they could have 2 weeks ago.
    :cry: :cry:
     
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