Speculation: Subban and that bridge contract..(what to expect with his next extension)

[BJCOLLINS]

I always found Shea Weber to be a bit overrated...that doesn't mean he's not an excellent player, don't get me wrong, I'd take him on the Habs anyday of the week, but I've never found him to be that great defensively, certainly not on the Chara level.

Being physical and laying big hits does not necessarily equate to being great defensively. I always thought Ryan Suter was a much more complete dman than Weber was when they played together in Nashville.

Yeah I've been Habs fan a many years & long for the days of the big three when other teams were told "the crease is ours" & "trespasser's will be moved".

 

[holyhabs]

hey hes not proven like josi and voynov guys pk HAD to prove himself worthy of a long term deal

 

[Poulet Kostopoulos]

There is no right or wrong answer to this.

The only thing I know is that it worked out well for both MB and PK Subban because PK Subban has become a much better player and mature athlete. And as such, he will be payed his worth (and probably more) for his next contract. He may ask for a bit more than market and MB will gladly give it to him. He will not ask for 11M/per if the market says 7M/per because, well, he's mature and he likes it here (based on what he says). But MB will gladly give him 1M above market value.

(If he got the rumoured 5M/per for 5 seasons and he's performing consistently has a Norris candidate, MB and PK would likely want to renegotiate way before the end of the 5-year term anyway.)

 

[Lebowski]

expect him to be the best D in the entire league ? no GM/coach expect that from their 22/23 years old D...

the opportunistic part is mostly saying "haha! MB should have known", come on now...

I'm not saying it was to be expected Subban would win the Norris this year, but I think it was clear he had elite potential, if he weren't part of the elite already. Signing Subban to a long term contract right after his ELC had a part of risk, as with any other players, but he's the type of player you shouldn't hesitate to to hand him the big bucks.

Point being, there was a lot of Habs fan who predicted what happened right now. Bergevin definitely had it in the back of his mind, too, but he decided to stick with the bridge contract for whatever reason. I just think the situation was mismanaged.

There will be ample opportunity to save that money on the cap over the next 2 years...

Sure, but we could have saved more. Look, I never said paying Subban his true worth was a bad thing. My point relies on the fact we could have had him for less, allowing us to ice a (hopefully) better team over the duration of his contract.

Just look at what the Pens did with Letang. He played for them at nearly half his actual value for 2-3 years.

 

[Miller Time]

hey hes not proven like josi and voynov guys pk HAD to prove himself worthy of a long term deal

quoted for sad truth...


*sigh* every GM gets at least one "free pass"... Hope MB uses this blunder as his only major get out of jail free card, and proceeds to make us forget its lunacy by the sheer success of his future decisions.

 

[DAChampion]

quoted for sad truth...


*sigh* every GM gets at least one "free pass"... Hope MB uses this blunder as his only major get out of jail free card, and proceeds to make us forget its lunacy by the sheer success of his future decisions.

What do you call the Desharnais contract?

 

[Miller Time]

What do you call the Desharnais contract?

poorly timed?

I'm not thrilled about that deal either (at least not the term), but do think its too early to call it a terrible move. Desharnais had a poor end to the season, but if he can give us 50-60pt production next year, that's pretty solid from a sub 4M$ cap hit... and likely tradeable should Galch prove ready.

could also end badly, in which case it would be blunder #2, but that one is much less obvious than the Subban hold-out/lowball/ "bridge" situation.

 

[417]

Sure, but we could have saved more. Look, I never said paying Subban his true worth was a bad thing. My point relies on the fact we could have had him for less, allowing us to ice a (hopefully) better team over the duration of his contract.

Just look at what the Pens did with Letang. He played for them at nearly half his actual value for 2-3 years.

Like you said "hopefully"...there's no guarantee that with the money saved, they would of iced a better team.

Fans (not saying you) often make the mistake of thinking that having cap space means you're automatically going to improve your team.

Cap space is one thing, player evaluation and making players fit into your team structure is a whole other.

 

[Monctonscout]

quoted for sad truth...


*sigh* every GM gets at least one "free pass"... Hope MB uses this blunder as his only major get out of jail free card, and proceeds to make us forget its lunacy by the sheer success of his future decisions.

I don't see how it's a blunder.

Myers is a perfect example of paying somebody too much too soon and having it screw up their career and put the team in a bad situation.

I'm more worried about the Price contract than the Subban one. Price got more than he earned and proceeded to have a down year. I would have been much happier at a 5.5-5.75 mil cap hit over 6 years for Price.

 

[Sorinth]

I don't see how it's a blunder.

Myers is a perfect example of paying somebody too much too soon and having it screw up their career and put the team in a bad situation.

I'm more worried about the Price contract than the Subban one. Price got more than he earned and proceeded to have a down year. I would have been much happier at a 5.5-5.75 mil cap hit over 6 years for Price.

You do see the irony right? I know they were in different situations but if we had given Price a long term deal instead of a bridge contract he would probably be making only 5m or so right now instead of 6.5.

 

[Monctonscout]

You do see the irony right? I know they were in different situations but if we had given Price a long term deal instead of a bridge contract he would probably be making only 5m or so right now instead of 6.5.

The point still remains that giving young players huge contracts at a young age is a dangerous game. Not just if they start to struggle and their value drops but in terms of putting a lot of pressure on them to perform now.

 

[Sterling Archer]

I agree with the poster who said that a Karlsson contract is perfect for PK.

He gets the $$$$ he wants, cap hit under new lower cap is workable and he's equal to Price's cap hit as the 2 most important players on the team.

I'd expect a multi year $6.5 avg cap hit to come this year, not next. The sooner the better and less hard feelings. Bergy knows he's gonna give it and PK knows he's gonna get it. Git er' done!

 

[Sorinth]

The point still remains that giving young players huge contracts at a young age is a dangerous game. Not just if they start to struggle and their value drops but in terms of putting a lot of pressure on them to perform now.

Do you want me to list all the players that didn't struggle after getting a big contract after their ELC?

Giving out a big contract is always a risk, it doesn't matter if that player is young or not. Look at Gomez and Bryzgalov to name a few.

 

[habsfanatics*]

Do you want me to list all the players that didn't struggle after getting a big contract after their ELC?

Giving out a big contract is always a risk, it doesn't matter if that player is young or not. Look at Gomez and Bryzgalov to name a few.

Agreed, pk was very little risk. Hopefully this is just a stupid club policy that will remain, because if MB thought there was risk associated with performance then his player evaluating skills aren't what their cracked up to be. PK carried no more risk than any other player who signed long term deals after their ELC. I would say PK's was as sure a thing as one could be.

 

[David Thicke]

I am not trying to get into Bergevin's head and I don't know what the internal policies are for contracts set by Molson and the Canadiens' ownership but here's a possible thought on Subban.

Bergevin comes in as the new GM of the Canadiens, evaluates all the players and makes his decisions.

He signs Price to a six-year contract (maybe a little to high for my liking) after his bridge contract of two years. Making Price a possible UFA in 2018.

He signs Pacioretty to a six-year extension (again maybe too high for my liking) which starts this coming season after his two-year bridge contract ends. Making Pacioretty a possible UFA in 2019.

Subban tries to negiotate a longer term deal but Bergevin sticks to his guns or policy and only offers a two-year bridge contract. Subban performs very well and win the Norris Trophy in the half season. There's a maturing of Subban and Bergevin has seen the real Subban for himself and has decided for what to do next. I have to believe that Subban is going to be signed at some point from now until the end of this coming season as per what appears to be a team policy to a six-year deal (likely more $$$ than Price or Pacioretty). Making Subban a possible UFA in 2020.

I see all of this as Bergevin deciding and targeting his key players going forward as Price, Pacioretty and Subban with others to follow. He followed the team policies and staggered their UFA years on purpose so that he doesn't have to deal with them at the same time if he's still the GM in 6-8 years from now. Seems like good asset management to me. There will be others like Galchenyuk, Gallagher, Eller and etc.... that should follow the same scenario if this is the way the Canadiens ownership policies are. Desharais was only given a four year deal therefore not seen in the same light as the other three. A short term deal (I would have preferred a max three-year) while Eller and Galchenyuk continue to develop and improve their offensive games. We see what happens!

Just my opinion.

 

[ZARTONK]

I am not trying to get into Bergevin's head and I don't know what the internal policies are for contracts set by Molson and the Canadiens' ownership but here's a possible thought on Subban.

Bergevin comes in as the new GM of the Canadiens, evaluates all the players and makes his decisions.

He signs Price to a six-year contract (maybe a little to high for my liking) after his bridge contract of two years. Making Price a possible UFA in 2018.

He signs Pacioretty to a six-year extension (again maybe too high for my liking) which starts this coming season after his two-year bridge contract ends. Making Pacioretty a possible UFA in 2019.

Subban tries to negiotate a longer term deal but Bergevin sticks to his guns or policy and only offers a two-year bridge contract. Subban performs very well and win the Norris Trophy in the half season. There's a maturing of Subban and Bergevin has seen the real Subban for himself and has decided for what to do next. I have to believe that Subban is going to be signed at some point from now until the end of this coming season as per what appears to be a team policy to a six-year deal (likely more $$$ than Price or Pacioretty). Making Subban a possible UFA in 2020.

I see all of this as Bergevin deciding and targeting his key players going forward as Price, Pacioretty and Subban with others to follow. He followed the team policies and staggered their UFA years on purpose so that he doesn't have to deal with them at the same time if he's still the GM in 6-8 years from now. Seems like good asset management to me. There will be others like Galchenyuk, Gallagher, Eller and etc.... that should follow the same scenario if this is the way the Canadiens ownership policies are. Desharais was only given a four year deal therefore not seen in the same light as the other three. A short term deal (I would have preferred a max three-year) while Eller and Galchenyuk continue to develop and improve their offensive games. We see what happens!

Just my opinion.

This is a good analysis, you may be right.

 

[Teufelsdreck]

I'm not worried. The money isn't coming out of my pocket. And if Subban receives a mind boggling offer sheet, Bergevin would still match it.

 

[hogtownhabsfan*]

Subban should demand, and get, Price money at the worst.

 

[ECWHSWI]

Do you want me to list all the players that didn't struggle after getting a big contract after their ELC?

Giving out a big contract is always a risk, it doesn't matter if that player is young or not. Look at Gomez and Bryzgalov to name a few.

if by BIG contract you mean 5Mil +, sure go ahead - you may be in for a surprise though...

 

[Hoople]

The moment of truth is almost upon us.

What will Bergevin do with the money he saved on Subban's bridge contract?

 

[ECWHSWI]

The moment of truth is almost upon us.

What will Bergevin do with the money he saved on Subban's bridge contract?

he'll buy himself a new car I think.

 

[25get]

Because he played 42 games this season and he has 3.75 next season, PK salary based on 42+82 games was 7M for two years.

Assuming we could have signed PK for 5 years at 25M, you need to assume that the last three years of that contract are worth (25M-7M=18M) 6M per.

So if PK signs anything over 6M he is winning.
Basic problem is that we don't know what PK was asking for.

Subban is now better than he was so he is worth more.
His pace was 74 points compared to 38 points previously.

From MB perspective, it is better to have PK signed for 2+8 years instead of 5 years.

 

[Miller Time]

From MB perspective, it is better to have PK signed for 2+8 years instead of 5 years.

and what about 5+8 years...

or 5 + 7

or 5 + 6




the other factor which people don't seem to be playing any regard to is the emotional one. While it is a business first and foremost, and decisions need to be made regardless of "feelings", it's not hard to imagine that Subban didn't feel particularly appreciated by his new GM.

he's said all the right things, even during the difficult negotiations, but in his head how does he feel about management/ownership?

at best, he's so mature that he'll completely leave it behind...

but if he's even remotely as egotistical or self-involved as even some "fans" claim he is, it would follow that he'll keep a big memory of the team making it a point to wield their RFA advantage over him...

there's a reason why some organizations manage to get key players to sign at less than market value. Some of that is the opportunity to "win" or be surrounded by other high-priced talent... a big part of that is the relationship the owner/gm fosters with them.
What could have been an opportunity to "gamble" on a player in a way that would endear him to the team for a long long time, turned into the exact opposite.

if he has another season close to (or better) than last year, don't be surprised if the Subban 'team' takes the ******* You PAY ME approach. That would fit the "attitude" a lot of people still seem to ascribe to the kid...

 

[MSLs absurd thighs]

Let's ***** about how a Norris winner will make the money he deserves, and ignore how we're paying 15% of our cap space to Gorges and Gionta. Yay!

 

[Jakomyte]

People are talking about this situation as if there was no other outcome but PK winning the Norris this year. The risk with signing him long term was also that there still was no consensus on exactly the type of player he would be. I think this year really solidified what his level will likely be in his prime, and that is worth $6.5 million+, but there was still plenty of uncertainty last year.

Its always easy to look back after he had a great year and say that we should have had him for less. Remember, if we signed him at 5x5, it would have been 4 RFA years, 1 UFA year. Going forward, his contract will only be 3 RFA years, so it would make sense for it to increase regardless.

The only way this bridge contract is a blunder for MB is if people assume he has access to a time machine, and that he got agents of all our up and coming players to pinky swear not to use PK skipping his bridge contract as leverage. MB had the balls to hold out until Subban fell in line, and it will benefit the team.