Should teams pick a G in the first round?

Discussion in 'NHL Draft - Prospects' started by PhillyNucksFan, Jul 26, 2004.

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  1. PhillyNucksFan

    PhillyNucksFan Registered User

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    As most of the people would agree that, wich exceptions of few top G, a Goalie matures at age around 25 on avg or older, and some flourished to legit #1 before the age of 25 or younger. The top of line #1 NHL Gs under age of 25 when flourished that I can think of right now is Theodore, and Luongo (who really didnt establish himself as a legit, meeting his potential until this year).

    So, whats the point of taking a very high potential (never a sure thing) in the first round when the G is still 18 years old, and the chances of the G not flourishing in 4-5 years (until 22-24 years), is high. Many teams or fans would often give up on the "former high potential to be good #1 NHL G" before they flourish and they flourished with another team.

    Look at the rangers, how many "first round Gs" they have taken are playing for them right now!?!?

    Then, should a team use its first round pick on a G when the chances of the G flourishing WITHIN the system is fairly low?

    I'm keeping fingers crossed for this years 1st round G selection..... (and no, i am not with canucks' first round selection @#$*#@)
     
  2. PSUhockey34

    PSUhockey34 Registered User

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    Goalies are worth 1st round picks, its just that you got to be extremely patient with their development...regardless if its a high or low 1st round pick, I wouldnt be staking the next 4 or 5 years of my franchise on that selection, not to mention its probably the hardest postion to draft for b/c of how long the development process usually takes...now would I draft a goalie in the first? eh only if he's the best possible choice when it would come time for me to select a player, Id almost rather buy/trade for a goalie whose NHL ready rather wait out for the prospect finally to develop

    I would rather have a franchise goalie then a franchise foward/dmen b/c I think the goalie postion is more dominant...but I'd draft a franchise foward/dmen before I would a franchise goalie, the odds of a foward or dmen prospect being an impact are a lot better then a goalie's
     
    Last edited: Jul 26, 2004
  3. X-SHARKIE

    X-SHARKIE Registered User

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    Depends.

    I don't like seeing the Sharks draft a goalie in the first round ( they never have) because of the success we have with goalies in late rounds.

    Nabby, Kipper, Toskala and now goalies like Patzold and EHelechner coming down the line.
     
  4. db23

    db23 Guest

    First round goalies have a really poor success rate compared to skaters taken at around the same spots. Any year you can find a couple of young former first or second round drafted goaltenders available as UFA's. Ottawa drafted Mathieu Chouinard in the first round in 1998, in the second round in 2000, and finally let him go for nothing to L.A., who just released him. He is 24 years old. Simon Lajeunesse is another. Last year, Montreal had two former first round goalie picks playing for them in Hamilton, Eric Fichaud and J.F. Damphousse. They got both of them for nothing and were paying them next to nothing. Both were in their early 20's still. Now they have been cut loose and replaced by a couple of free agents Danis and Michaud. :shakehead

    Why bother using a first round pick unless it is a Kari Lehtonen/Roberto Luongo type talent? Let someone else do it and spend a few years developing him then pick him up for nothing.
     
  5. moosefan

    moosefan Registered User

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    Sometimes just like players, goalie get stuck in the wrong system and its not that they don't have the talent to make it, they get screwed around so much that it deplets their talent, such was the case IMO with Mathieu Chouinard and Eric Fichaud, I was never a fan of Damphousse and don't know why he was taken 1st round...trust me Michaud will not be as good as people think. But Fichaud and Chouinard had the talent to be star goalies but they got in a bad development system IMO and lost confidence in their games and that has alot to do with performance. Not always the goalies fault.
     
  6. Big McLargehuge

    Big McLargehuge 13

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    Hillier makes me say no, Fleury makes me say yes.
     
  7. LaLaLaprise

    LaLaLaprise lalalaprise -twitter

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    Fleury hasnt proven anythin yet. He could bust for all we know, but i guess you could say that about any player.
     
  8. LaLaLaprise

    LaLaLaprise lalalaprise -twitter

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    Id never use a 1st rd pick on a goalie, look at the % of NHL goalies and look how many were 1st rounders. There are A LOT of good goalies taken in rds 2-5 and even some in rds 6-9.

    It isnt worth burning a top pick, in which you could grab a positioned player who could play in 2 years rather than a goalie who will take 5 years. Teams/fans usually arent as patient with 1st rounders.
     
  9. Flames Draft Watcher

    Flames Draft Watcher Registered User

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    You could do the same thing with defensemen and forwards and draw the mistaken conclusion that they aren't worth drafting in the 1st round either because the majority of the defensemen and forwards in the NHL weren't taken in the 1st. It's a very illogical argument.

    Your chances of getting an impact player (whether it be goalie, defensemen or forward) are higher in the first round. There will be mistakes and busts at every position. But with goaltending being the most important position and goaltending scouting and coaching having improved over the past decade you will certainly see teams take goalies in the 1st and I for one think it's a solid move if you're sold on the kid.

    Your team MIGHT luck out and be able to acquire a true #1 through a trade (see Giguere, Kiprusoff, etc) but if it were so easy to do, why are there still teams out there with goalie issues? You can't bank on trading for a #1 goalie who you think could help your team compete for the cup and neither can you bank on drafting one in the mid-late rounds. Point to as many examples as you want but it's not a sure thing either.

    The Flames spent the good part of a decade trying to find a #1 after having taken Kidd in the first round instead of Brodeur until Sutter acquired Kiprusoff. It doesn't mean they shouldn't have taken Kidd, it just means they took the wrong goalie in the first round that year.
     
  10. Vipers

    Vipers Registered User

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    I don't remember what year it was, but 4 goalies were taken in the 1st round and all of them are goalie consider as #1 with their respective team.
    These players are: Giguère, Biron, Cloutier and Denis.

    Not always bad to draft a goalie in the 1st round. Also, they are relatively young.
     
  11. LaLaLaprise

    LaLaLaprise lalalaprise -twitter

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    How many #1 dman and #1 line players were late rounders. Look around at the starting goalies....A large majority are late round picks.
     
  12. LaLaLaprise

    LaLaLaprise lalalaprise -twitter

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    It works both ways...there are a few #1 goalies who are 1st rounders. Taking them isnt neccessarily BAD, but when there are so many good goalies avaialble late, why bother?
     
  13. Brodeur

    Brodeur Registered User

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    Your first statement doesn't really have any merit. The success rate of skaters is roughly the same, but do you consider a late first rounder who turns out to be a decent 3rd liner to be a success?

    You mention Simon Lajeunesse, but there are only 5 NHL regulars (2 of which were overagers in F.Kaberle and Havelid) in the 50+ picks made after him. Would Ottawa be that much better off if they had selected a guy like Jeremy Van Hoof?

    You mention the number of former first and second round goalies that are UFAs every summer. There are plenty of former first and second round skaters looking for a new job every summer.

    Here are some recent draft years:

    http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/draft/nhl1997e.html (Not too many NHLers after the Devils picked Damphousse)

    http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/draft/nhl1998e.html (Bad year for goalies, but a handful of first round skaters were waiver claims: Fata, Malhotra, Heerema, Biron.)

    http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/draft/nhl1999e.html (Better year for goalies. You have Ouellet, Ahonen, and Auld still looking pretty good. Brian Finley hasn't been as quick to develop, but I don't think the Preds would be any better off today if they had selected Denis Shvidki like many had expected them to at the time.)

    Let's take a look a little further back:

    http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/draft/nhl1995e.html (Giguere, Biron, Boucher, and Denis are all legit #1s. Chad Kilger's been passed around plenty of times. Steve Kelly, Terry Ryan, and Teemu Riihijarvi are free to be signed. Ditto Jeff Ware, Brad Church, and Dmitri Nabokov. Sean Brown and Maxim Kuznetsov are #6/7 caliber NHL defenseman, do they constitute as a 'success'?)

    http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/draft/nhl1994e.html (Theodore and Cloutier are the only NHLers out of the 5 goalies taken in the top 2 rounds. Storr/Fichaud didn't live up to their potential, and Ryabchikov never stuck. But would the Leafs be a better team today with Jason Botteril or Chris Wells?)

    At any rate, it's all a crap shoot, there is no more guarentee towards any position. There are a limited number of goalie spots an organization can have, so that's why it seems like there are so many more goalie busts. If a team drafts a guy like Todd Harvey who turns out to be a valuable role player as opposed to a 2nd line threat, they can keep him around on a roster. But if a goalie is the 3rd or 4th best on the depth chart, he'll be let go long before a guy like Harvey.

    Each team has a draft strategy. I honestly don't have a problem with a team taking a bunch of goalies with later picks, then hoping one pans out. I do have a problem with people who say "Don't pick a goalie, he might be the next Jamie Storr. Take a skater instead [because there's no way he might be a pedestrian player like Aki Berg, or a bust like Matt Zultek]."
     
  14. LaLaLaprise

    LaLaLaprise lalalaprise -twitter

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    Everyone has their own way of thinking. Just like GM's. Some prefer not to use 1st rounders on goalies. Some dont mind doing it, and some love getting that 1st round goalie.

    Personal preference.
     
  15. ZombieMatt

    ZombieMatt Registered User

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    I would take a goalie in the top 5 picks if he was at that type of level but otherwise would not select a mid-late round goalie.

    There are not many goalies taken between picks 10-30 overall that have become bonafide #1's (or even backups).

    There seems, though it could be just that its emphasized by the fact that LESS goalies are drafted, to be a gap between top picks where there is some success and then some bizarre vortex in the top third to the rest of the first round where goalies just aren't all that prominently successful.

    *shrug*
     
  16. Jason MacIsaac

    Jason MacIsaac Registered User

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    If the goaltender is the best player available then I would take the goaltender....it is as simple as that and has worked for NJ.
     
  17. Flames Draft Watcher

    Flames Draft Watcher Registered User

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    Good post Brodeur. It's funny how some people don't seem to realize how many forward/defensemen busts there are the first round. There's plenty of proof that goalies are worth taking in the first round and it's there for everyone to see if they want to take the time to do some proper research.
     
  18. PhillyNucksFan

    PhillyNucksFan Registered User

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    Yes, but here is the next question to your response.

    How patient should you be?

    When exactly do you determine "a bust" or "a star".

    Glimpse of stardom does not equal franchise bluechip G..

    Often, it is until the break out year (usually at least 24 years of age, 6 years later after drafted), you find out where the guy is the real deal.

    Good ol' saying, time is money.. you may have wasted 6 years worth of time on a 50% or 30% bust. To me, that is not very good management at 30% waste rate.

    Plus, with that first round pick, if you drafted elsewhere, the chances of drafting a franchise player F or D is higher than a D, most of the time, and maturity or potential should usually show much earlier than a G. (If the guy doesnt make it at 22, he is most likely to be no better than an avg NHLer).
     
  19. db23

    db23 Guest

    I'm not going to go back, but I know intuitively that it is poor drafting to use a top pick on a goaltender unless that goaltender is a clear cut sure thing. The only two that fit in that category to me in the last 15 years or so are Kari Lehtonen and Roberto Luongo. I'll grant you that Lehtonen has less NHL experience than Rick DiPietro or Marc-Andre Fleury and not much more than Pascal Lecaire, but I would not have used a first round pick on any of those latter three. Leclaire and Fleury in particular have every chance of going the way of Brian Finley or Brent Krahn.
     
  20. PhillyNucksFan

    PhillyNucksFan Registered User

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    Exactly,

    There is usually more burden and pressure on 1st rounders, and fans usually give a honeymoon period of 2 years.. if by 3rd year.. the prospect still has not developed into what they drafted him for, or close or in the right direction... it is usually considered as a "BUST".

    Sure, MA Fluery is good. (I only watched him play a couple games when i got to PA area), he is the real deal, but how many of those types of franchise G are around and worth taking in the first round?

    This year's draft, how many were taken in the 1st round?? 3 or 4??


    As a fan, I would of course love to have a franchise G, given todays NHL scene, but is it really worth 4-6 years of patience of developing a potential bust?

    No, I dont think so, and I personally would like to take on some other position, mainly D, where they may not develop into say, Ray Bourque or Lidstrom type, but I'd be happy with solid, (Say, Ohlund), type.

    If a G is just an avg G taken in the first round, its not worth it IMO
     
  21. Flames Draft Watcher

    Flames Draft Watcher Registered User

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    Going the way of Finley and Krahn? Both players have experienced some injury problems but if you're suggesting they are busts then you are prematurely judging them. Both are still legit prospects.
     
  22. PhillyNucksFan

    PhillyNucksFan Registered User

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    The bust rate for G isnt exactly "equal" to the bust rate of D and F.

    Of course, many of the first rounders dont even make it to the NHL. (as a Canucks fan, I know! Check Canucks last 10-15 years of first round drafts..... :cry: )

    But, the base of selection is much bigger with F or D combined together than G, no? If that is the true, and if you have good scouting, the success rate of picking a franchise F or D should be higher than picking a G. I am not saying the failure rate of selecting a G in first round is higher, but i'm saying the success rate of picking a franchise F or D is much higher than picking a G in the first round!

    Im only talking about first rounds, no 2nd round or onward picks.

    Auld was not picked in the 2nd round, and that year of draft, none of the 2 G in the first round has yet established themselves anymore than Auld has so far.
     
  23. Flames Draft Watcher

    Flames Draft Watcher Registered User

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    I'm not so sure about all that.

    Take a look at all the players taken from the first goalie onwards and I don't think there's a much higher chance of landing franchise forwards or defensemen. Sure in the top 3 picks, but goalies aren't usually taken that high most years.

    Lot's of people make some grand claims about goalie bust rates and this and that but few actually bother to try and prove it. I've scoured the draft lists for the past decade and I don't think goalies are that much of a higher risk. Feel free to prove me wrong though.
     
  24. Chili

    Chili Registered User

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    Tom Barrasso won the Calder and Vezina as an 18 year old. I'd say he was worth a first rounder. Yes, he is the exception but the actual age goalers 'arrive' varies. If you look at Brodeur, Roy, Luongo, Theodore, Giguere and others it's been 22-23 years old. And, imo, they were all worthy of top ten picks. It all comes down to your scouting, who's available, your depth chart, etc. and your projections. But I would consider drafting a goaler anywhere, if I felt he was that good a prospect.
     
  25. Brodeur

    Brodeur Registered User

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    I think you need to define what a 'franchise' player is. Generally, those are reserved for superstars like Joe Thornton, Peter Forsberg, Nik Lidstrom, etc etc. Does a franchise guy include players like Paul Mara, Scott Hannan, and Nick Boynton? Does a franchise guy include players like Justin Williams, Ales Hemsky, or Mark Bell? What about Todd Harvey, Brad Ference, or Dean McAmmond?

    I think it's just that more former 1st round skaters are still hanging around the NHL, whereas former 1st round goalies will find themselves out of work if they aren't top 2 at their position in the organization. Whereas former first round skaters can find their niche as 4th liners/3rd pairing D.

    Smart organizations don't pick a goalie because they need one (*cough*Chicago-Adam Munro*cough*). Smart organizations realize it'll be 4-5 years at least before most goalies even get a sniff at the NHL. But smart organizations realize that a couple more years in waiting is maybe worth the sacrifice of not impressing a very small percentage of fans by tossing out a 20-21 year old on the 3rd line to score 30 points a year.
     
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