plusandminus
Registered User
- Mar 7, 2011
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I have noticed that some seem to look at Team SH % as being useful regarding how good the skaters on the team are at playing SH.
I list the table below to show the strong correspondence between save percentage and team performance.
The stat columns are:
ShotPrev = how good the team have been at preventing opponents to shoot
SavePerc = how good the team's goalies have been at saving shots
GA = how good the team has been at preventing opponents from scoring on them
GAadj = GA adjusted, see comments near the end of this post.
I will refer to GA as performance, i.e. how good the team performed.
Numbers above 1 means better than average.
A number = 1.000 means average.
Numbers below 1 means worse than average.
Everything is short handed, and everything is first calculated on a "per minute" basis and then normalized within a season. The average of a given season is always 1.000 for each stat.
Teams are being sorted by how good they were at preventing opponents to score on them.
(If columns are not sortable, refresh may make them become that.)
Seas|Seas2|Team|ShotPrev|SavePerc|GA|GAadj
2008|2009|MIN|0.9675|1.6764|1.6219|1.0691
2008|2009|NYR|1.0753|1.4722|1.5830|1.1578
2009|2010|STL|1.0299|1.3966|1.4383|1.0984
2005|2006|MIN|1.1096|1.2942|1.4360|1.1659
2009|2010|BUF|1.0264|1.3737|1.4099|1.0911
2006|2007|VAN|0.9560|1.4430|1.3796|1.0243
2009|2010|BOS|1.0306|1.3355|1.3764|1.0895
2002|2003|NJD|1.3095|1.0482|1.3727|1.3136
2002|2003|ANA|1.0861|1.2510|1.3588|1.1288
2005|2006|BUF|1.0331|1.2941|1.3369|1.0854
2010|2011|PIT|1.1487|1.1386|1.3079|1.1771
2006|2007|NAS|1.0203|1.2681|1.2938|1.0652
2010|2011|WAS|1.0851|1.1915|1.2930|1.1221
2006|2007|MIN|0.9668|1.3369|1.2924|1.0201
2003|2004|DET|1.0430|1.2238|1.2764|1.0809
2010|2011|VAN|0.9977|1.2753|1.2724|1.0458
2002|2003|TOR|0.9506|1.3384|1.2723|1.0014
2009|2010|CHI|1.0594|1.1923|1.2632|1.0948
2007|2008|DAL|1.1439|1.0953|1.2529|1.1638
2007|2008|SJS|1.0762|1.1607|1.2491|1.1077
2010|2011|LAK|1.0612|1.1742|1.2460|1.0942
2005|2006|DET|1.1340|1.0937|1.2402|1.1520
2010|2011|FLO|0.9683|1.2803|1.2397|1.0158
2003|2004|FLO|0.8284|1.4947|1.2382|0.8935
2007|2008|NAS|1.0827|1.1427|1.2372|1.1110
2010|2011|NAS|1.0637|1.1578|1.2315|1.0936
2009|2010|SJS|0.9791|1.2360|1.2102|1.0191
2006|2007|NJD|0.9393|1.2882|1.2100|0.9838
2007|2008|MIN|0.9694|1.2350|1.1971|1.0102
2008|2009|STL|1.0675|1.1139|1.1891|1.0871
2007|2008|EDM|0.9756|1.2088|1.1793|1.0124
2006|2007|ANA|0.9926|1.1857|1.1769|1.0225
2003|2004|DAL|1.0606|1.1075|1.1746|1.0774
2010|2011|MTL|1.0189|1.1524|1.1742|1.0466
2005|2006|OTT|1.0954|1.0708|1.1730|1.1082
2009|2010|PIT|1.1035|1.0624|1.1723|1.1143
2005|2006|COL|1.0281|1.1390|1.1710|1.0530
2002|2003|DAL|1.1753|0.9958|1.1704|1.1670
2003|2004|VAN|1.1639|1.0040|1.1685|1.1593
2008|2009|CGY|0.9317|1.2537|1.1681|0.9715
2009|2010|PHO|0.9578|1.2179|1.1665|0.9940
2005|2006|NAS|1.0196|1.1392|1.1616|1.0444
2009|2010|OTT|0.9496|1.2214|1.1599|0.9860
2009|2010|DET|1.0375|1.1168|1.1586|1.0581
2002|2003|DET|0.8947|1.2936|1.1574|0.9361
2002|2003|BUF|1.2044|0.9592|1.1553|1.1870
2009|2010|NYR|1.1479|1.0060|1.1549|1.1466
2006|2007|EDM|1.0499|1.0992|1.1540|1.0652
2008|2009|LAK|1.1812|0.9755|1.1523|1.1714
2002|2003|MIN|1.0279|1.1183|1.1495|1.0446
2006|2007|PHI|0.9233|1.2424|1.1471|0.9600
2010|2011|OTT|0.9188|1.2480|1.1466|0.9590
2002|2003|PHI|1.2132|0.9434|1.1445|1.1916
2010|2011|NJD|1.1869|0.9638|1.1439|1.1764
2006|2007|CAR|1.1282|1.0119|1.1416|1.1259
2007|2008|STL|1.1217|1.0165|1.1402|1.1244
2003|2004|CBS|0.9381|1.2149|1.1397|0.9708
2003|2004|NJD|1.0184|1.1160|1.1365|1.0361
2003|2004|NYI|1.0483|1.0834|1.1358|1.0602
2006|2007|DET|1.2496|0.9064|1.1326|1.2199
2008|2009|PHI|1.0109|1.1190|1.1312|1.0303
2007|2008|NYR|1.1330|0.9962|1.1287|1.1311
2002|2003|CBS|0.9825|1.1443|1.1244|1.0031
2006|2007|DAL|1.1589|0.9678|1.1216|1.1463
2006|2007|OTT|1.0841|1.0341|1.1211|1.0866
2010|2011|NYR|1.0501|1.0674|1.1209|1.0623
2010|2011|TBL|1.0920|1.0251|1.1194|1.0957
2008|2009|SJS|1.0511|1.0634|1.1178|1.0605
2005|2006|NYR|0.9890|1.1294|1.1169|1.0112
2003|2004|SJS|0.9225|1.2101|1.1163|0.9539
2005|2006|BOS|1.0235|1.0901|1.1157|1.0392
2005|2006|EDM|1.2842|0.8667|1.1129|1.2453
2008|2009|PIT|1.0375|1.0723|1.1125|1.0485
2007|2008|DET|1.1876|0.9333|1.1084|1.1703
2006|2007|NYR|1.0336|1.0709|1.1069|1.0432
2005|2006|CGY|1.0402|1.0628|1.1056|1.0508
2008|2009|FLO|0.8732|1.2628|1.1027|0.9118
2003|2004|ANA|0.9961|1.1051|1.1008|1.0114
2002|2003|CHI|1.0546|1.0436|1.1005|1.0570
2005|2006|CHI|1.1701|0.9376|1.0970|1.1527
2003|2004|ATL|1.0851|1.0105|1.0965|1.0823
2008|2009|NAS|1.2510|0.8764|1.0964|1.2142
2005|2006|DAL|1.1247|0.9738|1.0952|1.1164
2003|2004|CGY|0.9507|1.1486|1.0920|0.9728
2007|2008|BUF|1.0993|0.9927|1.0914|1.0967
2009|2010|NJD|1.2008|0.9086|1.0910|1.1752
2008|2009|BOS|0.9483|1.1471|1.0878|0.9713
2009|2010|MTL|1.0289|1.0519|1.0823|1.0369
2010|2011|NYI|1.0149|1.0626|1.0785|1.0258
2006|2007|MTL|0.9044|1.1921|1.0782|0.9327
2007|2008|NJD|0.9032|1.1920|1.0766|0.9346
2003|2004|BUF|1.0267|1.0479|1.0759|1.0315
2003|2004|TBL|1.1641|0.9218|1.0731|1.1399
2009|2010|PHI|1.1709|0.9136|1.0697|1.1472
2002|2003|OTT|1.0909|0.9801|1.0692|1.0797
2005|2006|ANA|0.9842|1.0854|1.0683|0.9983
2003|2004|STL|1.0641|1.0025|1.0667|1.0596
2009|2010|CGY|0.9822|1.0793|1.0601|0.9949
2008|2009|CBS|1.0226|1.0313|1.0546|1.0254
2010|2011|PHI|1.1620|0.9046|1.0512|1.1372
2003|2004|CHI|0.9664|1.0850|1.0486|0.9777
2009|2010|ATL|0.9141|1.1470|1.0485|0.9373
2007|2008|ANA|0.9375|1.1179|1.0481|0.9578
2009|2010|MIN|1.1231|0.9323|1.0471|1.1049
2010|2011|BOS|0.9570|1.0920|1.0451|0.9725
2006|2007|CHI|1.0324|1.0117|1.0445|1.0303
2008|2009|OTT|1.1518|0.9056|1.0431|1.1253
2003|2004|COL|1.0348|1.0059|1.0409|1.0311
2010|2011|BUF|0.9781|1.0637|1.0405|0.9888
2003|2004|MIN|1.0422|0.9982|1.0403|1.0369
2008|2009|MTL|1.0648|0.9755|1.0388|1.0559
2007|2008|PHI|1.0147|1.0230|1.0381|1.0184
2006|2007|SJS|1.0210|1.0135|1.0348|1.0193
2007|2008|CBS|0.9699|1.0640|1.0319|0.9811
2008|2009|BUF|0.9083|1.1354|1.0313|0.9285
2002|2003|VAN|1.0802|0.9489|1.0250|1.0622
2010|2011|MIN|0.9763|1.0497|1.0247|0.9843
2006|2007|FLO|1.1051|0.9255|1.0228|1.0833
2003|2004|BOS|1.1504|0.8787|1.0108|1.1157
2010|2011|DET|1.0346|0.9762|1.0099|1.0280
2005|2006|FLO|0.8825|1.1433|1.0090|0.9046
2002|2003|PIT|0.9929|1.0144|1.0072|0.9895
2007|2008|VAN|0.9987|1.0079|1.0065|0.9993
2007|2008|MTL|0.8956|1.1216|1.0045|0.9155
2002|2003|NYI|1.0923|0.9192|1.0040|1.0673
2008|2009|VAN|1.0666|0.9344|0.9966|1.0486
2009|2010|VAN|1.0688|0.9320|0.9962|1.0514
2007|2008|NYI|0.9609|1.0346|0.9941|0.9665
2007|2008|FLO|0.9249|1.0720|0.9915|0.9370
2007|2008|TBL|1.0331|0.9595|0.9913|1.0237
2003|2004|PHI|1.1004|0.9000|0.9904|1.0724
2003|2004|OTT|1.1039|0.8947|0.9877|1.0745
2007|2008|CHI|1.0446|0.9425|0.9846|1.0314
2005|2006|NJD|0.9254|1.0610|0.9818|0.9344
2006|2007|NYI|0.9382|1.0412|0.9768|0.9417
2003|2004|TOR|1.0089|0.9658|0.9744|0.9971
2010|2011|STL|1.0607|0.9185|0.9742|1.0413
2005|2006|STL|0.9436|1.0318|0.9735|0.9475
2002|2003|LAK|1.0415|0.9341|0.9729|1.0210
2002|2003|CGY|0.9402|1.0321|0.9704|0.9402
2008|2009|CHI|0.9299|1.0427|0.9696|0.9345
2010|2011|CGY|1.0269|0.9430|0.9684|1.0134
2005|2006|CAR|1.1319|0.8546|0.9673|1.0946
2009|2010|CBS|0.9934|0.9721|0.9657|0.9855
2002|2003|BOS|1.0194|0.9454|0.9638|1.0017
2008|2009|CAR|0.9612|1.0026|0.9637|0.9584
2005|2006|TBL|1.0945|0.8798|0.9630|1.0646
2007|2008|COL|1.0412|0.9239|0.9619|1.0239
2002|2003|NAS|1.0420|0.9194|0.9580|1.0182
2005|2006|CBS|0.8718|1.0981|0.9574|0.8864
2002|2003|EDM|1.0743|0.8893|0.9553|1.0428
2010|2011|ANA|0.9095|1.0487|0.9538|0.9168
2006|2007|PIT|0.9578|0.9952|0.9532|0.9527
2005|2006|VAN|0.9872|0.9639|0.9515|0.9779
2008|2009|NJD|1.0191|0.9326|0.9504|1.0015
2008|2009|ANA|0.9253|1.0259|0.9493|0.9269
2008|2009|WAS|0.9773|0.9713|0.9492|0.9683
2006|2007|BUF|1.0450|0.9045|0.9452|1.0198
2007|2008|PIT|1.0032|0.9388|0.9418|0.9897
2005|2006|MTL|0.9789|0.9605|0.9402|0.9690
2008|2009|COL|1.0763|0.8724|0.9390|1.0438
2007|2008|OTT|1.0104|0.9291|0.9388|0.9947
2003|2004|PHO|0.9294|1.0079|0.9367|0.9265
2002|2003|COL|0.8673|1.0794|0.9362|0.8752
2006|2007|BOS|1.0437|0.8963|0.9355|1.0166
2009|2010|LAK|1.0668|0.8764|0.9349|1.0366
2005|2006|SJS|1.0756|0.8681|0.9337|1.0434
2007|2008|WAS|0.9462|0.9857|0.9327|0.9426
2010|2011|DAL|0.9794|0.9521|0.9325|0.9684
2007|2008|CGY|1.0130|0.9199|0.9319|0.9954
2009|2010|CAR|1.0014|0.9298|0.9312|0.9847
2010|2011|CAR|0.8846|1.0514|0.9301|0.8921
2008|2009|NYI|0.9128|1.0161|0.9275|0.9126
2003|2004|MTL|1.1606|0.7962|0.9241|1.1037
2009|2010|COL|0.9519|0.9693|0.9227|0.9438
2006|2007|CBS|1.0830|0.8493|0.9198|1.0436
2002|2003|TBL|1.1105|0.8267|0.9181|1.0624
2008|2009|DAL|1.1557|0.7938|0.9174|1.0998
2009|2010|TBL|0.9597|0.9493|0.9111|0.9475
2007|2008|PHO|1.0662|0.8541|0.9106|1.0322
2005|2006|PHO|0.9581|0.9446|0.9051|0.9453
2006|2007|CGY|0.9435|0.9567|0.9027|0.9311
2005|2006|TOR|0.9323|0.9605|0.8955|0.9229
2006|2007|COL|0.9986|0.8954|0.8941|0.9725
2002|2003|MTL|0.9347|0.9556|0.8932|0.9204
2010|2011|CBS|0.9659|0.9236|0.8922|0.9493
2003|2004|NAS|1.0014|0.8824|0.8836|0.9721
2002|2003|STL|1.1069|0.7954|0.8804|1.0507
2002|2003|CAR|0.9015|0.9744|0.8785|0.8913
2002|2003|FLO|0.7198|1.2170|0.8760|0.7439
2010|2011|CHI|0.9560|0.9122|0.8721|0.9372
2002|2003|ATL|0.9962|0.8749|0.8715|0.9638
2003|2004|WAS|0.8256|1.0556|0.8715|0.8307
2003|2004|CAR|0.9791|0.8900|0.8714|0.9520
2002|2003|SJS|0.8987|0.9654|0.8676|0.8868
2006|2007|ATL|0.8920|0.9723|0.8673|0.8831
2002|2003|WAS|0.8214|1.0555|0.8670|0.8251
2002|2003|PHO|0.9253|0.9359|0.8660|0.9074
2008|2009|DET|1.0355|0.8350|0.8647|0.9954
2010|2011|SJS|0.9639|0.8903|0.8581|0.9403
2003|2004|EDM|1.0363|0.8273|0.8573|0.9930
2006|2007|STL|1.0492|0.8157|0.8559|1.0029
2006|2007|WAS|0.7531|1.1357|0.8553|0.7691
2009|2010|ANA|0.8786|0.9720|0.8540|0.8716
2005|2006|NYI|0.9562|0.8927|0.8536|0.9328
2009|2010|FLO|0.8908|0.9578|0.8532|0.8810
2009|2010|WAS|1.0194|0.8340|0.8502|0.9808
2005|2006|PHI|0.9493|0.8953|0.8499|0.9266
2003|2004|LAK|0.9668|0.8770|0.8479|0.9373
2008|2009|EDM|0.8605|0.9847|0.8474|0.8549
2008|2009|TBL|0.9331|0.9021|0.8418|0.9109
2002|2003|NYR|1.0015|0.8400|0.8413|0.9612
2007|2008|BOS|0.9218|0.9122|0.8409|0.9042
2007|2008|TOR|0.9741|0.8532|0.8311|0.9428
2007|2008|ATL|0.9407|0.8778|0.8257|0.9156
2005|2006|ATL|0.9738|0.8473|0.8251|0.9401
2005|2006|PIT|0.9123|0.8985|0.8197|0.8911
2005|2006|LAK|0.9804|0.8350|0.8186|0.9436
2009|2010|EDM|0.9027|0.9039|0.8160|0.8825
2007|2008|CAR|0.9845|0.8281|0.8153|0.9472
2006|2007|TBL|1.0912|0.7416|0.8092|1.0233
2005|2006|WAS|0.7717|1.0464|0.8075|0.7771
2006|2007|TOR|0.9981|0.8082|0.8066|0.9523
2010|2011|PHO|0.8145|0.9870|0.8039|0.8111
2010|2011|TOR|1.0658|0.7454|0.7944|1.0034
2007|2008|LAK|0.8151|0.9681|0.7892|0.8091
2006|2007|PHO|0.9584|0.8216|0.7874|0.9174
2009|2010|DAL|0.9077|0.8655|0.7856|0.8798
2006|2007|LAK|0.9470|0.8217|0.7781|0.9065
2003|2004|NYR|0.8594|0.8995|0.7730|0.8374
2010|2011|EDM|0.9140|0.8400|0.7678|0.8813
2008|2009|ATL|0.9110|0.8414|0.7665|0.8770
2008|2009|PHO|0.9440|0.8074|0.7622|0.9014
2009|2010|NAS|0.9639|0.7838|0.7556|0.9159
2009|2010|NYI|0.9144|0.8173|0.7474|0.8762
2010|2011|ATL|0.9375|0.7966|0.7469|0.8945
2010|2011|COL|0.9874|0.7384|0.7291|0.9279
2008|2009|TOR|0.9677|0.7465|0.7223|0.9096
2003|2004|PIT|0.9101|0.7756|0.7059|0.8610
2009|2010|TOR|0.9282|0.7550|0.7008|0.8754
Comments:
There is a correlation between how good one is at preventing opponent's from shooting, and how well one is at allowing few goals It's a relatively strong correlation, as can be seen by the best performances usually have average shot prevention, while the worst performances have below average prevention.
There is an even stronger correlation between save percentage and performance. They follow each other strongly, as when one is above 1, the other also often is. When one is below 1, the other one often is below 1.
Best is to combine great save percentage with great shot prevention. "Don't let opponents shoot. And if they shoot, then save the puck.". It's logical.
I think, being aware of the above, that one should be careful to attribute a correlation between a team's SH performance, and the performance of the skaters. If a team has very good SH stats, it's probably because they have a great goalie, rather than necessarily having great skaters.
Another way of putting it; a team's SH stats may often have relatively little to do with how the skaters perform. (I will know more after I have studied more carefully how stats for different skaters being on the same team.)
What do you others think?
Is save percentage being helped by the skaters? If so, how can one tell based on the statistics?
Is shot prevention ability something that is mostly affected by the skaters? One may think so, but on the other hand the goalies ability to avoid rebounds may at least slightly affect it.
(Then there is also many other things, like screening, deflecting, etc. But they are hard to adjust for?)
I experimented with adjusting for goalies. It seemed that using a somewhat regressed save percentage, by using the power of 0.7, gave "nice looking" results. They are shown in the rightmost column of the table.
To adjust completely (not using the power of(?) 0.7), didn't not seem ideal. Or is it?
Of course, more study is needed.
What do you think?
Notice that adjusted performance will differ very much from the actual performance. It totally re-ranks teams. Also, the power(?) one uses (for example 0.7), will give very different results.
(I hope I have used the term "power" correctly, language wise. For example, 4*4*4 = 4 powered by 3 = 64. That is how I mean when I write "power by" above.)
If anyone wonder why I don't mention goals for (GF when playing SH), it is because I am looking at goals against. The goals for does not seem important at this stage to try to adjust. They are, however, important during other parts of the calculations.
To summarize my "goal", it is to try to find a way of splitting the team performance into two parts, one (basically the save percentage) telling how good the goalies did, and one telling how good the skaters as a whole did. I'm using actual performance (2nd column from right) to allocate points to teams. Then I want to know how many points to attribute to the goalies, and how many that are left for the skaters. Then I'll look within teams to determine how to distribute the skaters' points within the team.
I list the table below to show the strong correspondence between save percentage and team performance.
The stat columns are:
ShotPrev = how good the team have been at preventing opponents to shoot
SavePerc = how good the team's goalies have been at saving shots
GA = how good the team has been at preventing opponents from scoring on them
GAadj = GA adjusted, see comments near the end of this post.
I will refer to GA as performance, i.e. how good the team performed.
Numbers above 1 means better than average.
A number = 1.000 means average.
Numbers below 1 means worse than average.
Everything is short handed, and everything is first calculated on a "per minute" basis and then normalized within a season. The average of a given season is always 1.000 for each stat.
Teams are being sorted by how good they were at preventing opponents to score on them.
(If columns are not sortable, refresh may make them become that.)
2008|2009|MIN|0.9675|1.6764|1.6219|1.0691
2008|2009|NYR|1.0753|1.4722|1.5830|1.1578
2009|2010|STL|1.0299|1.3966|1.4383|1.0984
2005|2006|MIN|1.1096|1.2942|1.4360|1.1659
2009|2010|BUF|1.0264|1.3737|1.4099|1.0911
2006|2007|VAN|0.9560|1.4430|1.3796|1.0243
2009|2010|BOS|1.0306|1.3355|1.3764|1.0895
2002|2003|NJD|1.3095|1.0482|1.3727|1.3136
2002|2003|ANA|1.0861|1.2510|1.3588|1.1288
2005|2006|BUF|1.0331|1.2941|1.3369|1.0854
2010|2011|PIT|1.1487|1.1386|1.3079|1.1771
2006|2007|NAS|1.0203|1.2681|1.2938|1.0652
2010|2011|WAS|1.0851|1.1915|1.2930|1.1221
2006|2007|MIN|0.9668|1.3369|1.2924|1.0201
2003|2004|DET|1.0430|1.2238|1.2764|1.0809
2010|2011|VAN|0.9977|1.2753|1.2724|1.0458
2002|2003|TOR|0.9506|1.3384|1.2723|1.0014
2009|2010|CHI|1.0594|1.1923|1.2632|1.0948
2007|2008|DAL|1.1439|1.0953|1.2529|1.1638
2007|2008|SJS|1.0762|1.1607|1.2491|1.1077
2010|2011|LAK|1.0612|1.1742|1.2460|1.0942
2005|2006|DET|1.1340|1.0937|1.2402|1.1520
2010|2011|FLO|0.9683|1.2803|1.2397|1.0158
2003|2004|FLO|0.8284|1.4947|1.2382|0.8935
2007|2008|NAS|1.0827|1.1427|1.2372|1.1110
2010|2011|NAS|1.0637|1.1578|1.2315|1.0936
2009|2010|SJS|0.9791|1.2360|1.2102|1.0191
2006|2007|NJD|0.9393|1.2882|1.2100|0.9838
2007|2008|MIN|0.9694|1.2350|1.1971|1.0102
2008|2009|STL|1.0675|1.1139|1.1891|1.0871
2007|2008|EDM|0.9756|1.2088|1.1793|1.0124
2006|2007|ANA|0.9926|1.1857|1.1769|1.0225
2003|2004|DAL|1.0606|1.1075|1.1746|1.0774
2010|2011|MTL|1.0189|1.1524|1.1742|1.0466
2005|2006|OTT|1.0954|1.0708|1.1730|1.1082
2009|2010|PIT|1.1035|1.0624|1.1723|1.1143
2005|2006|COL|1.0281|1.1390|1.1710|1.0530
2002|2003|DAL|1.1753|0.9958|1.1704|1.1670
2003|2004|VAN|1.1639|1.0040|1.1685|1.1593
2008|2009|CGY|0.9317|1.2537|1.1681|0.9715
2009|2010|PHO|0.9578|1.2179|1.1665|0.9940
2005|2006|NAS|1.0196|1.1392|1.1616|1.0444
2009|2010|OTT|0.9496|1.2214|1.1599|0.9860
2009|2010|DET|1.0375|1.1168|1.1586|1.0581
2002|2003|DET|0.8947|1.2936|1.1574|0.9361
2002|2003|BUF|1.2044|0.9592|1.1553|1.1870
2009|2010|NYR|1.1479|1.0060|1.1549|1.1466
2006|2007|EDM|1.0499|1.0992|1.1540|1.0652
2008|2009|LAK|1.1812|0.9755|1.1523|1.1714
2002|2003|MIN|1.0279|1.1183|1.1495|1.0446
2006|2007|PHI|0.9233|1.2424|1.1471|0.9600
2010|2011|OTT|0.9188|1.2480|1.1466|0.9590
2002|2003|PHI|1.2132|0.9434|1.1445|1.1916
2010|2011|NJD|1.1869|0.9638|1.1439|1.1764
2006|2007|CAR|1.1282|1.0119|1.1416|1.1259
2007|2008|STL|1.1217|1.0165|1.1402|1.1244
2003|2004|CBS|0.9381|1.2149|1.1397|0.9708
2003|2004|NJD|1.0184|1.1160|1.1365|1.0361
2003|2004|NYI|1.0483|1.0834|1.1358|1.0602
2006|2007|DET|1.2496|0.9064|1.1326|1.2199
2008|2009|PHI|1.0109|1.1190|1.1312|1.0303
2007|2008|NYR|1.1330|0.9962|1.1287|1.1311
2002|2003|CBS|0.9825|1.1443|1.1244|1.0031
2006|2007|DAL|1.1589|0.9678|1.1216|1.1463
2006|2007|OTT|1.0841|1.0341|1.1211|1.0866
2010|2011|NYR|1.0501|1.0674|1.1209|1.0623
2010|2011|TBL|1.0920|1.0251|1.1194|1.0957
2008|2009|SJS|1.0511|1.0634|1.1178|1.0605
2005|2006|NYR|0.9890|1.1294|1.1169|1.0112
2003|2004|SJS|0.9225|1.2101|1.1163|0.9539
2005|2006|BOS|1.0235|1.0901|1.1157|1.0392
2005|2006|EDM|1.2842|0.8667|1.1129|1.2453
2008|2009|PIT|1.0375|1.0723|1.1125|1.0485
2007|2008|DET|1.1876|0.9333|1.1084|1.1703
2006|2007|NYR|1.0336|1.0709|1.1069|1.0432
2005|2006|CGY|1.0402|1.0628|1.1056|1.0508
2008|2009|FLO|0.8732|1.2628|1.1027|0.9118
2003|2004|ANA|0.9961|1.1051|1.1008|1.0114
2002|2003|CHI|1.0546|1.0436|1.1005|1.0570
2005|2006|CHI|1.1701|0.9376|1.0970|1.1527
2003|2004|ATL|1.0851|1.0105|1.0965|1.0823
2008|2009|NAS|1.2510|0.8764|1.0964|1.2142
2005|2006|DAL|1.1247|0.9738|1.0952|1.1164
2003|2004|CGY|0.9507|1.1486|1.0920|0.9728
2007|2008|BUF|1.0993|0.9927|1.0914|1.0967
2009|2010|NJD|1.2008|0.9086|1.0910|1.1752
2008|2009|BOS|0.9483|1.1471|1.0878|0.9713
2009|2010|MTL|1.0289|1.0519|1.0823|1.0369
2010|2011|NYI|1.0149|1.0626|1.0785|1.0258
2006|2007|MTL|0.9044|1.1921|1.0782|0.9327
2007|2008|NJD|0.9032|1.1920|1.0766|0.9346
2003|2004|BUF|1.0267|1.0479|1.0759|1.0315
2003|2004|TBL|1.1641|0.9218|1.0731|1.1399
2009|2010|PHI|1.1709|0.9136|1.0697|1.1472
2002|2003|OTT|1.0909|0.9801|1.0692|1.0797
2005|2006|ANA|0.9842|1.0854|1.0683|0.9983
2003|2004|STL|1.0641|1.0025|1.0667|1.0596
2009|2010|CGY|0.9822|1.0793|1.0601|0.9949
2008|2009|CBS|1.0226|1.0313|1.0546|1.0254
2010|2011|PHI|1.1620|0.9046|1.0512|1.1372
2003|2004|CHI|0.9664|1.0850|1.0486|0.9777
2009|2010|ATL|0.9141|1.1470|1.0485|0.9373
2007|2008|ANA|0.9375|1.1179|1.0481|0.9578
2009|2010|MIN|1.1231|0.9323|1.0471|1.1049
2010|2011|BOS|0.9570|1.0920|1.0451|0.9725
2006|2007|CHI|1.0324|1.0117|1.0445|1.0303
2008|2009|OTT|1.1518|0.9056|1.0431|1.1253
2003|2004|COL|1.0348|1.0059|1.0409|1.0311
2010|2011|BUF|0.9781|1.0637|1.0405|0.9888
2003|2004|MIN|1.0422|0.9982|1.0403|1.0369
2008|2009|MTL|1.0648|0.9755|1.0388|1.0559
2007|2008|PHI|1.0147|1.0230|1.0381|1.0184
2006|2007|SJS|1.0210|1.0135|1.0348|1.0193
2007|2008|CBS|0.9699|1.0640|1.0319|0.9811
2008|2009|BUF|0.9083|1.1354|1.0313|0.9285
2002|2003|VAN|1.0802|0.9489|1.0250|1.0622
2010|2011|MIN|0.9763|1.0497|1.0247|0.9843
2006|2007|FLO|1.1051|0.9255|1.0228|1.0833
2003|2004|BOS|1.1504|0.8787|1.0108|1.1157
2010|2011|DET|1.0346|0.9762|1.0099|1.0280
2005|2006|FLO|0.8825|1.1433|1.0090|0.9046
2002|2003|PIT|0.9929|1.0144|1.0072|0.9895
2007|2008|VAN|0.9987|1.0079|1.0065|0.9993
2007|2008|MTL|0.8956|1.1216|1.0045|0.9155
2002|2003|NYI|1.0923|0.9192|1.0040|1.0673
2008|2009|VAN|1.0666|0.9344|0.9966|1.0486
2009|2010|VAN|1.0688|0.9320|0.9962|1.0514
2007|2008|NYI|0.9609|1.0346|0.9941|0.9665
2007|2008|FLO|0.9249|1.0720|0.9915|0.9370
2007|2008|TBL|1.0331|0.9595|0.9913|1.0237
2003|2004|PHI|1.1004|0.9000|0.9904|1.0724
2003|2004|OTT|1.1039|0.8947|0.9877|1.0745
2007|2008|CHI|1.0446|0.9425|0.9846|1.0314
2005|2006|NJD|0.9254|1.0610|0.9818|0.9344
2006|2007|NYI|0.9382|1.0412|0.9768|0.9417
2003|2004|TOR|1.0089|0.9658|0.9744|0.9971
2010|2011|STL|1.0607|0.9185|0.9742|1.0413
2005|2006|STL|0.9436|1.0318|0.9735|0.9475
2002|2003|LAK|1.0415|0.9341|0.9729|1.0210
2002|2003|CGY|0.9402|1.0321|0.9704|0.9402
2008|2009|CHI|0.9299|1.0427|0.9696|0.9345
2010|2011|CGY|1.0269|0.9430|0.9684|1.0134
2005|2006|CAR|1.1319|0.8546|0.9673|1.0946
2009|2010|CBS|0.9934|0.9721|0.9657|0.9855
2002|2003|BOS|1.0194|0.9454|0.9638|1.0017
2008|2009|CAR|0.9612|1.0026|0.9637|0.9584
2005|2006|TBL|1.0945|0.8798|0.9630|1.0646
2007|2008|COL|1.0412|0.9239|0.9619|1.0239
2002|2003|NAS|1.0420|0.9194|0.9580|1.0182
2005|2006|CBS|0.8718|1.0981|0.9574|0.8864
2002|2003|EDM|1.0743|0.8893|0.9553|1.0428
2010|2011|ANA|0.9095|1.0487|0.9538|0.9168
2006|2007|PIT|0.9578|0.9952|0.9532|0.9527
2005|2006|VAN|0.9872|0.9639|0.9515|0.9779
2008|2009|NJD|1.0191|0.9326|0.9504|1.0015
2008|2009|ANA|0.9253|1.0259|0.9493|0.9269
2008|2009|WAS|0.9773|0.9713|0.9492|0.9683
2006|2007|BUF|1.0450|0.9045|0.9452|1.0198
2007|2008|PIT|1.0032|0.9388|0.9418|0.9897
2005|2006|MTL|0.9789|0.9605|0.9402|0.9690
2008|2009|COL|1.0763|0.8724|0.9390|1.0438
2007|2008|OTT|1.0104|0.9291|0.9388|0.9947
2003|2004|PHO|0.9294|1.0079|0.9367|0.9265
2002|2003|COL|0.8673|1.0794|0.9362|0.8752
2006|2007|BOS|1.0437|0.8963|0.9355|1.0166
2009|2010|LAK|1.0668|0.8764|0.9349|1.0366
2005|2006|SJS|1.0756|0.8681|0.9337|1.0434
2007|2008|WAS|0.9462|0.9857|0.9327|0.9426
2010|2011|DAL|0.9794|0.9521|0.9325|0.9684
2007|2008|CGY|1.0130|0.9199|0.9319|0.9954
2009|2010|CAR|1.0014|0.9298|0.9312|0.9847
2010|2011|CAR|0.8846|1.0514|0.9301|0.8921
2008|2009|NYI|0.9128|1.0161|0.9275|0.9126
2003|2004|MTL|1.1606|0.7962|0.9241|1.1037
2009|2010|COL|0.9519|0.9693|0.9227|0.9438
2006|2007|CBS|1.0830|0.8493|0.9198|1.0436
2002|2003|TBL|1.1105|0.8267|0.9181|1.0624
2008|2009|DAL|1.1557|0.7938|0.9174|1.0998
2009|2010|TBL|0.9597|0.9493|0.9111|0.9475
2007|2008|PHO|1.0662|0.8541|0.9106|1.0322
2005|2006|PHO|0.9581|0.9446|0.9051|0.9453
2006|2007|CGY|0.9435|0.9567|0.9027|0.9311
2005|2006|TOR|0.9323|0.9605|0.8955|0.9229
2006|2007|COL|0.9986|0.8954|0.8941|0.9725
2002|2003|MTL|0.9347|0.9556|0.8932|0.9204
2010|2011|CBS|0.9659|0.9236|0.8922|0.9493
2003|2004|NAS|1.0014|0.8824|0.8836|0.9721
2002|2003|STL|1.1069|0.7954|0.8804|1.0507
2002|2003|CAR|0.9015|0.9744|0.8785|0.8913
2002|2003|FLO|0.7198|1.2170|0.8760|0.7439
2010|2011|CHI|0.9560|0.9122|0.8721|0.9372
2002|2003|ATL|0.9962|0.8749|0.8715|0.9638
2003|2004|WAS|0.8256|1.0556|0.8715|0.8307
2003|2004|CAR|0.9791|0.8900|0.8714|0.9520
2002|2003|SJS|0.8987|0.9654|0.8676|0.8868
2006|2007|ATL|0.8920|0.9723|0.8673|0.8831
2002|2003|WAS|0.8214|1.0555|0.8670|0.8251
2002|2003|PHO|0.9253|0.9359|0.8660|0.9074
2008|2009|DET|1.0355|0.8350|0.8647|0.9954
2010|2011|SJS|0.9639|0.8903|0.8581|0.9403
2003|2004|EDM|1.0363|0.8273|0.8573|0.9930
2006|2007|STL|1.0492|0.8157|0.8559|1.0029
2006|2007|WAS|0.7531|1.1357|0.8553|0.7691
2009|2010|ANA|0.8786|0.9720|0.8540|0.8716
2005|2006|NYI|0.9562|0.8927|0.8536|0.9328
2009|2010|FLO|0.8908|0.9578|0.8532|0.8810
2009|2010|WAS|1.0194|0.8340|0.8502|0.9808
2005|2006|PHI|0.9493|0.8953|0.8499|0.9266
2003|2004|LAK|0.9668|0.8770|0.8479|0.9373
2008|2009|EDM|0.8605|0.9847|0.8474|0.8549
2008|2009|TBL|0.9331|0.9021|0.8418|0.9109
2002|2003|NYR|1.0015|0.8400|0.8413|0.9612
2007|2008|BOS|0.9218|0.9122|0.8409|0.9042
2007|2008|TOR|0.9741|0.8532|0.8311|0.9428
2007|2008|ATL|0.9407|0.8778|0.8257|0.9156
2005|2006|ATL|0.9738|0.8473|0.8251|0.9401
2005|2006|PIT|0.9123|0.8985|0.8197|0.8911
2005|2006|LAK|0.9804|0.8350|0.8186|0.9436
2009|2010|EDM|0.9027|0.9039|0.8160|0.8825
2007|2008|CAR|0.9845|0.8281|0.8153|0.9472
2006|2007|TBL|1.0912|0.7416|0.8092|1.0233
2005|2006|WAS|0.7717|1.0464|0.8075|0.7771
2006|2007|TOR|0.9981|0.8082|0.8066|0.9523
2010|2011|PHO|0.8145|0.9870|0.8039|0.8111
2010|2011|TOR|1.0658|0.7454|0.7944|1.0034
2007|2008|LAK|0.8151|0.9681|0.7892|0.8091
2006|2007|PHO|0.9584|0.8216|0.7874|0.9174
2009|2010|DAL|0.9077|0.8655|0.7856|0.8798
2006|2007|LAK|0.9470|0.8217|0.7781|0.9065
2003|2004|NYR|0.8594|0.8995|0.7730|0.8374
2010|2011|EDM|0.9140|0.8400|0.7678|0.8813
2008|2009|ATL|0.9110|0.8414|0.7665|0.8770
2008|2009|PHO|0.9440|0.8074|0.7622|0.9014
2009|2010|NAS|0.9639|0.7838|0.7556|0.9159
2009|2010|NYI|0.9144|0.8173|0.7474|0.8762
2010|2011|ATL|0.9375|0.7966|0.7469|0.8945
2010|2011|COL|0.9874|0.7384|0.7291|0.9279
2008|2009|TOR|0.9677|0.7465|0.7223|0.9096
2003|2004|PIT|0.9101|0.7756|0.7059|0.8610
2009|2010|TOR|0.9282|0.7550|0.7008|0.8754
Comments:
There is a correlation between how good one is at preventing opponent's from shooting, and how well one is at allowing few goals It's a relatively strong correlation, as can be seen by the best performances usually have average shot prevention, while the worst performances have below average prevention.
There is an even stronger correlation between save percentage and performance. They follow each other strongly, as when one is above 1, the other also often is. When one is below 1, the other one often is below 1.
Best is to combine great save percentage with great shot prevention. "Don't let opponents shoot. And if they shoot, then save the puck.". It's logical.
I think, being aware of the above, that one should be careful to attribute a correlation between a team's SH performance, and the performance of the skaters. If a team has very good SH stats, it's probably because they have a great goalie, rather than necessarily having great skaters.
Another way of putting it; a team's SH stats may often have relatively little to do with how the skaters perform. (I will know more after I have studied more carefully how stats for different skaters being on the same team.)
What do you others think?
Is save percentage being helped by the skaters? If so, how can one tell based on the statistics?
Is shot prevention ability something that is mostly affected by the skaters? One may think so, but on the other hand the goalies ability to avoid rebounds may at least slightly affect it.
(Then there is also many other things, like screening, deflecting, etc. But they are hard to adjust for?)
I experimented with adjusting for goalies. It seemed that using a somewhat regressed save percentage, by using the power of 0.7, gave "nice looking" results. They are shown in the rightmost column of the table.
To adjust completely (not using the power of(?) 0.7), didn't not seem ideal. Or is it?
Of course, more study is needed.
What do you think?
Notice that adjusted performance will differ very much from the actual performance. It totally re-ranks teams. Also, the power(?) one uses (for example 0.7), will give very different results.
(I hope I have used the term "power" correctly, language wise. For example, 4*4*4 = 4 powered by 3 = 64. That is how I mean when I write "power by" above.)
If anyone wonder why I don't mention goals for (GF when playing SH), it is because I am looking at goals against. The goals for does not seem important at this stage to try to adjust. They are, however, important during other parts of the calculations.
To summarize my "goal", it is to try to find a way of splitting the team performance into two parts, one (basically the save percentage) telling how good the goalies did, and one telling how good the skaters as a whole did. I'm using actual performance (2nd column from right) to allocate points to teams. Then I want to know how many points to attribute to the goalies, and how many that are left for the skaters. Then I'll look within teams to determine how to distribute the skaters' points within the team.
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